Where do you watch current totals??
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Mil/pit its a play, current total 8.
Good luck amigos 🍀.Comment -
Looks like hou/laa is also now A play.
Personally I played it overnight and got u8.5. As I mentioned to husker earlier in this thread I don't think waiting is the best stretegy as I believe ya'll will find playing the overnights on these will more times than not land ya a better price and/or a half run on the total!! I understand the parameters call for totals 8 or lower but in these cases I can generally forsee when starters that fit criteria are gonna have the under take in money and line will subsequently drop into a play range. Waiting for it to hit 8 will never cause it to be a losing play but certainly gonna push some that could of cashed playing the 8.5 before it drops..
I try to play majority of my totals overnight as far more often than not I lose value by waiting. as I suspected I already played a lot of the unders in huskers system just cause happen to line up with things I was already looking for which is why I felt confident saying I thought he was on to something and that he prob find more value betting them overnight..
Just throwing my thoughts out there. Really like this thread to be a long term success.Comment -
Thanks for posting the hou/laa play. Looks like you got a winner with that extra half run.
Actually playing the system is providing some good information about line movements. Building a system based on closing lines is only the beginning. Like you said, we still want to get the best value play while still meeting the system parameters. Grabbing those early 8.5's would have been 2-0 today instead of two pushes. Just trying to figure out the best way to recognize those 8.5's that actually end up as 8.5's.
Great job today, and thanks for the insight.Comment -
Results for 5/7/2017
HOU/LAA 8.0U -115 PUSH
MIL/PIT 8.0U +105 PUSH
SF/CIN: Total stayed at 8.5, so no play.
Year-To-Date
Unfiltered System (5% ROI)
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 7-5-2 (+1.50u)
Filtered System (13% ROI)
May Actual Plays: 2-2-0 (-0.25u)
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Looks like I missed the NYY/CHC play today. Lester's 3.67 ERA fit the parameters after the total dropped from 7.5 to 7.0.
I guess it was a lucky miss. The Cubs just scored three in the bottom of the 9th to tie the game 4-4.Comment -
Potential Plays for 5/8/2017
Unfiltered
SF/NYM: 7.0U
Not a play at 7.5. Just dropped to 7.0.
NYY/CIN: 8.0U
Still at 8.5. Needs 8.0. Just dropped from 9.0.
TEX/SD: 7.0U
Still at 7.5. Needs 7.0.
LAA/OAK: 7.5U
Still at 8.0. Needs 7.5.
STL/MIA: 7.5U
Still at 8.0. Needs 7.5. Looks promising.Comment -
System say 6.5 to 8, why isnt a play yet??Comment -
Do you wait until the last minute to make the play? Or those are allready the plays?Comment -
Early Games
Unfiltered
SF/NYM: Play 7.0U -105
NYY/CIN: No play. Total holding at 8.5. Need 8.0.
STL/MIA: No play. Total holding at 8.0. Need 7.5 or less (Martinez ERA is 3.75).
Will update about late games soon.Comment -
Today's plays were more of a waiting game than normal because some of the pitcher ERA's were right around 3.5 - 4.0, which is halfway to the totals of 7.0 to 8.0. Changes in the totals impacted the parameters all day. That's part of the reason why CHC became a play late yesterday when the total dropped to 7.0.
Recent days, the ERA's have been above 4.5 with totals around 7.5 to 8.0, so the pick is pretty much set early. Just need to get the best line.
Unfortunately, the system is based on closing lines, so there's a balance between jumping in early, and making sure that all the parameters will be met at the close.Comment -
Late Games
TEX/SD: NO PLAY.
Total is stuck at 7.5, and we need 7.0 for a play (Cahill ERA 3.60).
LAA/OAK: NO PLAY.
Total is stuck at 8.0, and we need 7.5 for a play (Graveman ERA 3.95).Comment -
Results for 5/8/2017
SF/NYM: 7.0U -105 PUSH
Year-To-Date
Unfiltered System (5% ROI)
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 7-5-3 (+1.50u)
Filtered System (13% ROI)
May Actual Plays: 2-2-0 (-0.25u)Comment -
5/9 - no plays on early afternoon games.
Will update about evening/night games in a couple hours.Comment -
5/9 - Night Games
Unfiltered System
PLAY
SF/NYM: 7.0U -110
Any total from 6.5 to 8.0 is valid here.
WAIT
Decision closer to game time for these:
LAA/OAK: Play if total looks to close at 8.0. Currently 8.5.
STL/MIA: Play if total looks to close at 8.0. Currently 8.0, but trending 8.5.Comment -
5/9 - All Plays
Unfiltered System
SF/NYM: 7.0U -110
Much better line now, but already locked in the -110 earlier.
LAA/OAK: 8.0U +100Comment -
Results for 5/9/2017
SF/NYM: 7.0U -110 PUSH
LAA/OAK: 8.0U +100 LOSS (-1.0u)
Year-To-Date
Unfiltered System (5% ROI)
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 7-6-4 (+0.50u)
Filtered System (13% ROI)
May Actual Plays: 2-2-0 (-0.25u)Comment -
Plays for 5/10
Unfiltered System
PLAY
CLE/TOR: 8.0U
Trending 7.5. Grab 8.0 if you can, but 7.5 still fits.
PIT/LAD: 7.5U
Holding steady. Still valid play at 7.0 or 8.0.
WAIT
SF/NYM: 8.0U
Trending 8.5. Play only if it holds 8.0 or less.
KC/TB: 7.0U
Trending 8.0, which is not a play with Archer's 3.57 ERA. Need 7.0 or less.Comment -
Passing on SF/NYM. Totals split between 8.0 and 8.5.Comment -
Plays for 5/10 - FINAL
Unfiltered System
CLE/TOR: 8.0U -115
Current total is 7.5, which is still valid.
PIT/LAD: 7.5U -105Comment -
5/11
Only one potential play, but late game, so watching for now. Invalid if total is 8.5.
CIN/SF: 8.0UComment -
Results from 5/10/2017
CLE/TOR: 8.0U -115 LOSS (-1.15u)
PIT/LAD: 7.5U -105 WIN (+1.0u)
Year-To-Date
Unfiltered System (5% ROI)
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 8-7-4 (+0.35u)
Filtered System (13% ROI)
May Actual Plays: 2-2-0 (-0.25u)Comment -
Plays for 5/12
Unfiltered System
CIN/SF: 7.0U -105
Valid play at 6.5 or 7.5 also.
DET/LAA: Will be a play if total drops from 8.5 to 8.0. Not there yet.Comment -
Sorry I'm just getting back to you had a rough week at work so wasn't able to post much.
Obviously there no surefire way to accomplish getting those 8.5 overnights without catching at least a few that never fall in parameters. However the totals I typically play early are ones where pitchers either over or under performing their peripherals as the saber crowd typically moves these. So as with that laa game where pitchers era fit your perameters but their peripherals showed conciderably better. In situations like that you can bank on those totals dropping on us far more often than not.
Honestly I can't imagine taking a early line and total ends up staying outside range would terribly hurt your success rate. So maybe your next project is to determine if the wins catching the 8.5/better juice adds opposed to a push is enough to make up for the occasional play that ends up being outside the parameters? And is said play even actually a liability on its own?Comment -
Results from 5/12/2017
Unfiltered System
CIN/SF: 7.0U -105 WIN (+1.0u)
Year-To-Date
Unfiltered System (5% ROI)
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 9-7-4 (+1.35u)
Filtered System (13% ROI)
May Actual Plays: 2-2-0 (-0.25u)Comment -
Thanks for the info. I'm still researching while I play this as originally advertised. However, I have noticed that a total of 8.5 is profitable over the long haul when the home team is favored, so I'll be starting more 8.5 picks in June after testing it out in May.
As you mentioned, I'm looking into the impact of grabbing those 8.5's rather than taking a push at 8.0 to see if the impact is positive or negligible.Comment -
Potentials for 5/13
CIN/SF: 8.0U
Looks good. Holding at 8.0.
DET/LAA: 8.0U
Currently 8.5. Needs 8.0. Late game, so watching.Comment -
CIN/SF - no play. Consensus appears to be 8.5 heading into game time.Comment
