It appears I'm talking to myself here but I have to laugh at how this system just keep winning. Again I went against my own rule of capping a series instead of just playing it. It's a common mistake that I see all the time. Although I had good reasons not to play Mil or Balt last night both came up winners.....in fact both teams were losing until the later innings. Maybe the next batch of 4 gamers will bring us better luck and better teams to chase.
-
Comment -
lets hope so...
GLComment -
I have been betting from the start of all four game series starting with game one. But with the Brewers/Nats series costing me 15 units to win 1, I have been looking at adding a filter to it or atleast start with taking the -1 RL with teams with -150 or higher odds. If the Brewers had lost last night I would have been betting 50 units to chase one unit.
Upcoming Unfiltered Series
Jul30 Yankees Wsox
Jul30 Phillies Giants
Jul30 Mariners Rangers
Jul31 Nats Pirates
Jul31 Royals RaysComment -
Home team in 4 game sets are on a roll; 16-2 in the 1st game of the series since July 20th.
Next sets
Aug 3 Orioles at Tigers
Aug 3 Rangers at A's
Let me know if I miss one. I almost skipped the Rangers-Mariners. I got a list of 4 games sets by manually scanning each team's home schedule.Comment -
GGPLAYER,
Have you been playing this all year? How many times ahs the home team been swept in 4 games this year so far? I know the Rockies took down the Cards in early June and the Cubs beat the Nats just after tha all-star break. If I remember correctly this system usually has 4-6 unfiltered losses a year. Just wondering how many it has had so far this year.Comment -
I was all over this system until that now famous Col sweep of StL. I just recently started to bet some games here and there. But I believe you are correct in saying that a there are a few unfiltered losses every year. BC really had the facts on this but it appears he has gone AWOL on this thread.Comment -
3 games to loose a ton of money, just imagine if the Tigers lost yesterday, today you already would have to bet a ton...
But hey if all of them win game 1, no need to think about a possible chaseComment -
I would suggest looking at -1 RL to help keep the chase costs down. I am still trying to get a number of when to play the ML vs a -1 RL. I missed out on the A's win since I was playing a -1 RL. I didn't play the Tigers in the four game chase since they fell under a different system I am also playing.
I would play the -1 RL for game one, if they lose I'd switch over to the ML for the chase. But if the game one ML is at + odds or a low - then I go for the ML. I also try to imagine the odds for the following games. For example if game one is -140/100 ml/-1RL and based on the pitching match up of game two I can imagine the ML being around -200 or more then I would go the -1 RL for game one. If I imagine the odds for game #2 being around -125 or so then I would likely go ML for game 1.Comment -
Upcoming Unfiltered Series
Aug 6 Braves Dodgers
Aug 6 Red Sox Yankees
Aug 6 Mets Padres
Aug 7 Cubs RockiesComment -
Incredible. In the last 24 games, home teams are 22-2 in Game One of a four game series.
Two unfiltered series on tap in the first half of the week.
Aug 10 - Astors at Marlins
Aug 10 - Tigers at Red SoxComment -
Upcoming Unfiltered Series
Aug 13 Yankees Mariners
Aug 13 Nats Reds
Aug 14 Angels Orioles
Aug 14 Giants Mets
Home team is 24-2 in opening game in last 26.Comment -
Any other idiots other than me chasing a win by the Mariners in their four game series at home vs the Yankees?Comment -
And the idiot wins again.
Only one early week unflitered four games series
Aug 17th Twins at RangersComment -
Upcoming Unfiltered Series
Aug 20 Cubs Dodgers
Aug 20 Cards Padres
Aug 21 Giants Rockies
Aug 21 Phillies Mets
Aug 21 Brewers Nats
Home team 28-3 in 1st game since July 20thComment -
Comment -
I expect a correction upcoming with the home team winning the first game. Right now it stands at 30-6 (83%) since July 20th. In the Morrison thread where bouncedcheck first spoke of this system whatisit backchecked and using his numbers, the home team won 57/120 (48%) in 07 and 73/133 (55%) in 08. I have no idea what the home team record was before July 20th but 30-6 is definetly not the norm.Comment -
Upcoming Unfiltered Series
Aug 27 Indians Orioles
Aug 27 A's Angels
Aug 27 Royals Mariners
Aug 28 Rays TigersComment -
Upcoming Unfiltered Series
Aug 31 Pirates Reds *includes a double header
Aug 31 Braves Marlins
Aug 31 Dbacks Dodgers
Aug 31 Jays Rangers
41-0 Since July 20th
32-9 in game AComment -
.Comment -
Upcoming unfiltered series
Sep 3 Mariners A's
Sep 3 Yankees Jays
Sep 4 Red Sox Wsox
Sep 4 Phillies Astros
Sep 4 Angels Royals
Anyone got anything different? The main reason I keep posting is for others to correct any errors. I went through each team's schedule to record the 4 game sets and I have had to correct a few on my own.Comment -
Sep 11 Jays Tigers
Sep 11 Mets Philles
Am I missing any others covering this weekend?Comment -
I guess there is only one poster left for this thread but it seems to me that this works well but I am still new at this.
The question is why don't we expand this system by betting on the home team from the first game. If they win the first game, we are done, no chasing necessary. If the home team loses, we do the BC system.
What do you guys think?Comment -
No American League team has been swept in a 4-game series this year.
Today Detroit fits the bill.Comment -
Tango: I think that is exactly what Blargh has been doing, betting right from the first game of the series and most have been winning on that 'A' bet.
Today DET and PHI fit this system, as listed above by Blargh.Comment -
Gotcha. Just post my bets. Thanks.Comment -
I'd be careful joining so late. I have begun thinking about an exit date. I have read and heard plenty of times to stop betting baseball in September. Supossedly it is too unpredictable. Also including the two series that kicked off tonight there are 19 plays remaining in the season. Not enough to cushion the blow of a chase loss. A four game chase loss at even odds will cost you 15 units and a lot of the chases will not be played at even odds.
One thing I often do is play the first game at a -1 RL if the chalk is above -150 and I believe the chalk will continue to be -150 or higher for most of the games. There was a series in July between the Nats and Brewers that had you already putting up 21 units on the third game of the chase. A fourth game would have you put up over 50 units for the four games combined. Luckily it ended on the C game. I get more nervous when the chase is on a heavy fav rather than a dog. Using the -1 RL helps reduce the overall chalk in the chase. On the B game you are back to betting the ML if they lose the A game outright. If the A game is a push the chase is over. You may have a lost a chance at a unit but when the inevitable loss(es) happen you may save yourself several.
The system, without filters as I play it, has historically lost 3-6 times a year. Three times so far this year that i know of. Cards once (good luck filtering that one out) and Nats twice (eliminated by virtually any filter on the face of the planet)Comment -
Thanks Blargh. I think I'll wait till next year.Comment -
The Jays/Tigers is a good example of a how it can all go wrong. The Tigers are a big fav every game and tommorrow will probably the lowest odds you'll find in this series with it around -150. Verlander will pitch the fourth game against Purcey. The odds on the fourth game will probably be over -200. I went to the last game twice but both times with the dogs (Mariners and Royals). It's not chasing the dogs that worry me, its chasing the Favs. If this chases losses with the Jays-tigers series, this chase for the past two months would be in the red.Comment -
Wow I haven't been here in months and I see people are still trying out this system...... I hope it has been beneficial....... I got really disgusted with baseball in general around the all-star break..... it had nothing to do with gambling....... I'm a disenfranchised baseball fan, and part of why I started betting on baseball at the start of the season was to keep myself interested in the game...... the game itself is what pisses me off now, not losing a few bets..... that's why I haven't been posting lately...... I just can't bring myself to have any interest in the game, even with the gambling angle..... I just hate it too much.
As for all the filters, I was watching a documentary on Netflix the other night called Maxed Out, about predatory lending and the credit "crisis." There was a key part near the end that dealt with a speech some woman was giving about minimizing and mitigating risk by filtering out bad customers and refusing to issue them credit cards........ turns out, all the information she presented was correct, but the boss who was obviously a higher-up in one of the bigger credit issuing firms told her that if they eliminate all the risky customers, their profits go way down. I'm not saying it well because it's been at least a week since I watched it and I don't remember it exactly, but it's the same thing as filtering out wins from the system. If you have Netflix, you can watch it instantly on your computer, and it will be explained much better than I'm saying it here.
Looking back at last year (2008), this 3-game chase system was something like 55-5. There were I think 149 four-game series, but only 60 in which the home team lost the first game. So at 55-5 and unfiltered, the system barely made money, although it finished in the black. What I'm getting at is that to make profits, you have to take more risk, and translated into terms that apply to a four-game series, I'm talking about betting on the home game starting with the first game of the series. Don't wait until the home team loses the first game.
The next question in my mind is of all the four-game series that have not been swept by the road team in recent years, how many instances were there in which the visiting team won the first three games and then lost the fourth? If that number is relatively low, which I think it very well might be, then the plan for next year could be to bet on the home team starting with the first game, and then if they lose the second and third games as well, THEN take the hit and stop chasing, leaving the fourth game on the table.
The deciding question in my mind is whether a three-game series is really different than a four-game series for the players from a psychological standpoint. In other words, we'd be chasing a home team in a three-game series, since we'd be leaving the fourth game out on the table in the event that the home team gets swept in the first three. However, does the fact that a fourth game is scheduled make it more likely that the home team will win one of the first three games? If we can research this question and find that the answer is yes, then it's likely to be a good method to pick series to chase for next year. After all, my idea for this entire system is based on a simpler system of merely chasing a home team to win one game in a three-game series. In that basic system, there's nothing wrong with a four-game series, but if you lose the first three games, you don't chase on the fourth, because the loss would be way too many units. If we can use the psychological aspects of a four-game series to more effectively pick which three-game chase to bet on, then we can reduce risk without reducing profits.Comment -
Hey BC,
I just started looking through this thread and think there is some validity to chasing a 4 game homestand. I was thinking in my head today that I might try another experiment where I bet the +1 1/2 RL on the underdog at home, as long as the visiting team isn't more than .02 RPI higher. It seems to me that if you have 2 teams who are fairly close in abilities then you have a good chance for the underdog at home to at least win or cover one of the games. See if you think there should be some more filters added, because it'd be interesting to see what someone can add.
I've been trying out different money management techniques for chasing, and for a 3 game series I have been starting with .5 unit and increasing accordingly. If it goes to the C bet in a 3 game series then I just bet to break even. Maybe for a 4 game series start with 1/3 a unit and then on the 4th game just try to break even. It might not be a lot of action but it should keep the risk down a bit.Comment -
Upcoming Unfiltered Plays
Sept 14 Rays Orioles
Sept 14 Brewers Cubs
If I played with a filter I would use one that would look at the odds in chase. Possibly any series that starts with low or even odds but finish with game three and four being very high odds, i.e. 200+. If you play all year you can withstand a couple of losses by home dogs. A loss by a home fav could equal 3-4 home dogs losses. There was a chase with NYY at Sea that went four games. If Sea had lost the fourth game I would have lost approx 9.25 units. A chase ended today with Tor-Det. If Det had lost today I would have already been down just over 15 units with a fourth game needing a lay of approx 38.4 units to win 1 unit in the chase. A loss would have been 43.4 units. This unit calculation includes playing the opening game at a -1RL instead of a ML and then chasing on the ML.
A filter that filters out home fav chase losses would be by far the most valuable and also the most difficult to develop without filtering out a greater number of wins.Comment -
Upcoming Unfiltered Plays
Sep 17 Marlins Reds
Sep 17 Indians A's
Sep 18 Padres PiratesComment -
Unfiltered Plays
Sep 21 Red Sox Royals
Sep 21 Rangers A's
I may lay off the RSox/Royals. Need to check on the expected starting pitchers. Both teams are hot of late. The Red Sox virtually have the wild card locked up so they won't have a lot to play for.
The Rangers/A's are an unofficial morrison play. So there should be money on the Rangers side. May play A's first game and if they win, jump on the Rangers for the rest of the series. But Rangers are basically out of the playoff picture now so I am a bit concerned that they may have already mailed it in.
Playing the Home team from game one is 60-0 since July 20th with 12 possible plays left.Comment -
Upcoming Unfiltered Plays
Sep 24 Phillies Brewers
Sep 24 Cubs Giants
Sep 24 Mariners Jays
Sep 25 Dodgers Pirates
System is on a 62 chase winning streakComment
