BouncedCheck 3-game chase system

[BouncedCheck]

Instead of using the JM baseball thread to discuss and track my system, I figured it was time to start a new thread. The details of my system can mostly be found here:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/139216-morrison-betting-system-mlb-p7.html#post1801734

That posts lists the filters, which I'm going to copy below. The premise of the system is that most teams rarely get swept at home during a 4-game series, so you wait for a 4-game series in which the home team loses the first game, then the next three games become a 3-game chase.

Here are the filters:

A HOME TEAM WINS FIRST GAME (GAME "0") OF FOUR GAME SERIES (GAME 2 IS GAME A, GAME 3 IS GAME B, GAME 4 IS GAME C)

B HOME TEAM HAS HOME WINNING PERCENTAGE UNDER .425

C VISITING TEAM HAS OVERALL WINNING PERCENTAGE OVER .645

D HOME TEAM HAS WON 9 OF LAST 10 AT HOME LEADING INTO SERIES

E HOME TEAM HAS LOST 9 OF LAST 10 AT HOME LEADING INTO SERIES

F HOME TEAM IS IN LAST PLACE AND VISITING TEAM IS IN FIRST PLACE (INCLUDING TIES) LEADING INTO SERIES (REGARDLESS OF DIVISIONS OR OVERALL RECORDS)

G LATE IN SEASON AND BOTH TEAMS ARE ELIMINATED FROM PLAYOFFS

H HOME TEAM HAS OVERALL WINNING PERCENTAGE UNDER .375

J HOME TEAM, LEADING INTO SERIES, HAS NO STARTER WITH ERA UNDER 4.80 SCHEDULED TO PITCH IN THE THREE GAMES ON WHICH TO BET (GAME "0" DOESN'T COUNT)

K HOME TEAM HASN'T HAD A DAY OFF IN THE PREVIOUS 12 DAYS LEADING INTO SERIES (MEANING POTENTIAL C GAME WOULD BE ON 16TH STRAIGHT DAY)

L TWO OR MORE OF ANY OF THE ABOVE FILTERS ARE *ALMOST* APPLICABLE

M GUT FEELING, INDEPENDENT OF ANY FILTERS, TELLS YOU TO STEER CLEAR OF THE SERIES

I've attached a screenshot of the spreadsheet I'm using to track the system. So far, it's undefeated this year and I'm up almost 7 units. Enough of the season has been played so the filters become relevant.

Tampa is definitely a play against Cleveland starting Friday. The Royals are a play according to the system, but if Greinke doesn't lead his team to a win over Baltimore on Friday, the Kansas City starters scheduled for Saturday and Sunday both suck. Also, the forecast calls for showers on Friday, and then good weather on Saturday and Sunday. Play the Royals at your own risk. The Giants are filtered out because they haven't had a day off since April 30, so even if they lose the game that's going on right now, it's still not a play. I'm probably going to play it anyway if the Mets hold their 4-2 lead in this game, because I'm a dick.

I would advise to NEVER play the -1.5 runline on this system. Whether you choose to play the +1.5 runline or moneyline is your decision and should be based on money management rather than baseball strategy. Obviously you're going to have to pay for the +1.5 runs, which will get costly if (when) you lose a series. Assuming -170 odds when you play the +1.5 runline, one series loss will wipe out 18.7 series wins. Assuming +100 even money when playing the moneyline, one series loss will wipe out 7 series wins. And for the novices who don't know the difference, it's inevitable that eventually there will be a series that loses on the moneyline and wins on the +1.5 runline, so it's really a question of pick your poison.

[BouncedCheck]

Giants just tied the game 4-4!

[BouncedCheck]

I'm betting Tampa according to the system, betting on Greinke and Kansas City as a single game - not going to chase on that if they lose Friday - and I changed my mind on the Giants. I'm not touching that series, in accordance with my own filter.

[Vincepcion]

Thanks for doing this.

[GGPLAYER]

I followed you on the JM thread and I am glad to see you created your own. I am on these Need to make back my friggin money. I know you said your not on SF but they have a great chance to win today. Just my opinon plus I bet them last night and I want my money back.

[BouncedCheck]

I know you said your not on SF but they have a great chance to win today. Just my opinon plus I bet them last night and I want my money back.

Not exactly the best betting strategy, but good luck.

Judging by your signature, you must be a Jose Reyes fan! But you can bet on SF because Reyes probably won't play again tonight.

My non-system picks for tonight are KC (actually a system pick, but as I explained, I'm not going to chase it if I lose this game) and Seattle.

[d2bets]

Good luck.

[GGPLAYER]

Not exactly the best betting strategy, but good luck.

Judging by your signature, you must be a Jose Reyes fan! But you can bet on SF because Reyes probably won't play again tonight.

My non-system picks for tonight are KC (actually a system pick, but as I explained, I'm not going to chase it if I lose this game) and Seattle.

Ola, la, la Jose! Acutally I am a Met fan (no comments please). I just like SF tonight. Met's are not that good on the road this year and they are missing some guys. Plus Timmy on the mound is big. I hope KC does win because I had to lay down a lot of juice for them. Here's to a good night

[BouncedCheck]

If I go 3-0 in my bets tonight, I'll buy you a beer!

Good sign - I got a random bag o crap on the Woot-off earlier today!

But I hate those ****in' Mets! haha

[BouncedCheck]

I just put $10 on the Angels +120.

[johncrud]

What is the record for the past years for this system?

[BouncedCheck]

What is the record for the past years for this system?

A few guys backtracked it for the past several years in the JM baseball thread. I think it had about 5 losses per year without filters. I didn't check specifically how many of the losses would have been filtered out, but there was one big loss that would not have been filtered out using what I call "new-age" statistics (specifically, RPI, whatever the hell that is) but would have been filtered out using my simple consecutive days filter. If you go through the JM thread, it's all there.

[BouncedCheck]

Hmmmmm, well that was, uh, interesting. LOL

[BouncedCheck]

Well I went 3-0 before I lost $10 on the Angels so I guess I owe you a beer. My advice would be to not put your money on Johnson Saturday. I will never advocate betting on the Mets because that's blood money to me, but I would not bet against Santana this game.

[BouncedCheck]

Updated spreadsheet.

[GGPLAYER]

Well I went 3-0 before I lost $10 on the Angels so I guess I owe you a beer. My advice would be to not put your money on Johnson Saturday. I will never advocate betting on the Mets because that's blood money to me, but I would not bet against Santana this game.

SOB!! What happened?? I wen to bed and it was 6-3 SF! Late games hurt me. I had the over with Bos/Sea (push) I had Cin and the Over (loss,push) and of course my chase with SF who lost. At least TB came back and somehow won their game. I guess I'll let the SF chase go and chaulk it up to a lesson learned.

So we have no plays now until maybe next week? Thanks for coming back NYY. 3 run 9th took that one away. I would have liked Tor to lose too...I have confidence in them not being sweep in a 4 game home stand.

[Hard10]

I can't believe the Rays came back from 7-0 and stole it last night. I went to bed thinking they were toast ready to make a B bet this morning. KC cruised as well.

[RonPaul2008]

good luck!!

[BouncedCheck]

So we have no plays now until maybe next week?

Tuesday... it's only 3 days away!

There are 135 four-game series on the schedule this year.... only 25 so far. We still have 110 remaining.

[GGPLAYER]

Tuesday... it's only 3 days away!

There are 135 four-game series on the schedule this year.... only 25 so far. We still have 110 remaining.

LOL!! I know. I have a problem though....I have to bet every day! I've been killing it in the NBA for the past 2 weeks but then giving it right back with MLB. I'm just hungry to get on a more consistent winning streak.

[BouncedCheck]

The trick you said
Was never play the game too long
A gambler's share
The only risk that you would take
The only loss you could forsake
The only bluff you couldn't fake

[jreynaud]

Do you have a nba system? Your mlb system seems awesome to me.

[BouncedCheck]

Follow the JM/Cartytay systems, but bet on the home team, using opposite filters. In other words, don't bet against the best team in the league three straight games, even when they're on the road, and even when buying 3 points. The series that JM quickly filters out are the ones you want to bet on the most. What are the chances that a bad team like the Kings or Raptors will cover the spread plus three points for three straight road games? Chances of it happening aren't good. The most important part of any system is to understand that YOU WILL LOSE A SERIES at some point. There are no guarantees. If you play roulette long enough, you will end up seeing a streak of 20 straight black numbers. It happens. It's rare to get a streak like that, but considering the number of roulette wheels being spun at any given moment throughout the entire world, the probability of a 20-spin streak of all black numbers on one particular wheel SOMEWHERE in the world is inevitable. So it's both extremely rare and inevitable at the same time. Eventually, that streak will happen on the wheel you're betting on, and your martingale system will FAIL. If you're not prepared to lose up to 20-30 units (depending on available odds) on a 3-game chase, then DON'T BET ON IT.

[johncrud]

bouncedcheck-- in general, how many units will you lose for each series loss?

[whatisit]

bouncedcheck-- in general, how many units will you lose for each series loss?

I did some of the backtracking for this system, and from what I saw, this is a hard question to answer since you'll be playing ML's in baseball, and the odds vary so much game to game/series to series and the amount you lose on a lost series depends on what series lost. If in the chase, a team that was a heavy favorite in each game ended losing a series, you'd lose a whole lot more than losing in a chase where the home team was slight favorites or dogs in the series.

[BouncedCheck]

There's a long thread in the basketball handicapping forum about the JM chase system. Read page 14 of that thread for the math on the chase system. One series loss in basketball costs 18.7 units.

Now that the Giants have lost the first three games to the Mets, I'm on what would have been game C (if the series hadn't been filtered out) for 1/5 of a unit. LOL Let's go Jints! haha

[johncrud]

that is smart... lol

for the cartay+ jm system, you will consistently make money by only placing bets on the "C" game of the series.. last year you will make 10 net units. just bet like 1k on each c game.

only 2 out of 9 past seasons have lost money if you bet on c game.

[jreynaud]

Thanks for the info. on the nba system, bouncedcheck. It always bothered me to bet on a team on the road plus a bunch of expensive points,knowing they are going to lose the game, but hoping not to lose by too much was a bit stressful.

[BouncedCheck]

The thing about taking the home team on the same series that all the JM bettors are taking the road team is that some books give you an extra half point for free, because they're compensating for all the JM bettors. So it really works to your benefit. I'll be curious once the season starts in November if anyone will have the balls to chase on both the road and home teams every series. I know I wouldn't.

[BouncedCheck]

Oh wow, there was a 4-game series I didn't have listed on my spreadsheet. I guess that goes to show checking each team's schedule manually isn't fool-proof. As it turns out, Brewers at Cardinals would have been NO PLAY since the first game was rained out, but after the Brewers won games 2 and 3, betting the Cardinals on what would have been the C game probably isn't a bad bet. I don't like Lohse, but it's not like Looper is lights-out or anything, so I'm taking the Cardinals. Pujols is due for some homers. 1/5 unit on Cardinals! I also like Seattle over Anaheim in a duel between former World Champion teammates Lackey and Washburn, but that's the start of a new 4-game series, so I'm very light on that one, only 1/10 of a unit. That way if I lose it, I can just add it to the chase starting Tuesday.

[Bakerdew]

So on any of these 4 game series starting on the 18th there wouldn't be any bet made untill the 19th. Have to wait to see if the home team looses first. I dunno too much research for me ...

[BouncedCheck]

LOL have it your way.

[GGPLAYER]

There's a long thread in the basketball handicapping forum about the JM chase system. Read page 14 of that thread for the math on the chase system. One series loss in basketball costs 18.7 units.

Now that the Giants have lost the first three games to the Mets, I'm on what would have been game C (if the series hadn't been filtered out) for 1/5 of a unit. LOL Let's go Jints! haha

I took a chance last night and chased my SF loses on the weekend. Paid off! I know you filtered it as a no play but I just was going on feeling that SF would not lose all 4 games. Looking forward to this week and getting back on track

[BouncedCheck]

Ok there were 5 series opening on Monday that had 4 games scheduled.

First up is Tampa, who knocked the crap out of the visiting A's, so that series is NO PLAY. However, I doubt Oakland is going to come back and take three straight from Tampa from this point forward. Play at your own risk.

Next is Washington, who got pounded by Pittsburgh 12-7, but that series is filtered out because the home team neither has an overall winning percentage over .375 and also does not have a home winning percentage over .425. And they're the Nationals. I don't think this explanation is even necessary.

Third up is Arizona at Miami. This ****ing game was a farce and a microcosm of everything wrong with modern professional baseball. When it comes to the major leagues, stupidity knows no bounds. Anyway, this one is filtered out because either Miami will win the first game, or if they lose the first game, their home winning percentage will dip below .425. Miami basically has no pitching and has done nothing consistently except stink up every series they've played this entire month. NO PLAY.

Fourth is Atlanta, who lost to Colorado 5-1. This is filtered out because the Braves are only 6-11 at home for a home winning percentage of just .353. I might play this one anyway though. If it loses, it's not a loss in my system. Like with the Baltimore/KC series last week, I like the home starter for Game A, but not for B and C. Jurrjens is much better than Hammel, so I'll take the Braves Tuesday, but if they lose, I'm probably not going to chase.

Finally, Seattle lost to Anaheim 10-6. This series is GO!

[GGPLAYER]

I am on Sea already and I want to take Atl but -215 is a lot of juice. I actually like Wash today 1st 5 inning at -150. Their bull-pen keeps letting them down but they usually do well early.