Ok guys it can't get any worse than that. I played all 4 games and lost a good chunk of money chasing a stupid $25! I need to recover and fast. I messed up in another chase and stopped doing it so I could put my money into the StL series. I took last night off even though I liked CWS and SD....both won. So now I"m really fighting to keep my emotions in check and make some smart moves.
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Im most likely done with chase systems
If one of the worst teams in COL can beat one of the best in STL then its bound to happen again...I took a decent sized hit with this chase
GL to the rest of youComment -
Guys, you gotta understand RPI doesn't mean shit. I lost a ton of money chasing $50 on this series, wiping out more than 1/3 of my bankroll. Another series loss like this one soon, and I'm going to be wiped out. That being said, I'm still in the black on this system for the year.
I'm sorry to say the Cardinals aren't anywhere even close to one of the best teams in baseball. They have one good offensive player who can carry the world on his shoulders when he's hot. If he doesn't do it, there's a damn good chance nobody else will either. Other than Pujols, it's either get a homer from Ankiel (or Ludwick, who didn't play in this series) or hope the rest of the corpses in the lineup can string some hits together. The Cardinals' pitching also isn't that great, especially the bullpen that kept surrendering runs as the offense was trying to fight its way back into each game.
The reason RPI is meaningless is because a guy like Pujols will inflate his team's RPI when he's hot. Then when he goes into a slump, the number cannot possibly be accurate. My system lost. I guaranteed it would lose at some point. The system is designed to make it easier to bet on mediocre teams, of which St. Louis most definitely is one. There's risk in that. Again, if you're not prepared to lose 10-20 units on a series loss, the system isn't good for you. It's rare, but it's guaranteed to happen once in a while.Comment -
I'm chasing Tex starting tonight. Any thoughts on that one?Comment -
Texas is a good play.. There is a guy with his custom chase system also had Texas as a play but it is only into his second game of a 4 game chase.
RPI is like one of the things that I put into consideration to see if it is worth chasing.. and plus, it has passed every single filtering test but it still lost..Comment -
Here's a good tip for anyone wanting to get some coin back from yesterday's STL debacle. (At least I hope) I just took Orlando -1/2 a point (buying 3 points -170) on BetUS. If you're a schmuck like me, and still have a BetUS account it's a good value considering the ML for Orlando is -190. Magic will fight their ass off tonight. Just my OP.
The Magic head home after losing Game Two in overtime and look to take advantage of LA's 3-10 ATS record in its last 13 games following a SU win. Orlando is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Magic favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.Comment -
Record looks great but "UNITS" in baseball are more important:
GL2U
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White Sox are going to cash out tonight. I like Dontrelle as a person, but I hate him as a pitcher right now. The guy is emotionally and psychologically unstable. Did you guys see him hopping in front of the pitching rubber after each walk he gave up in his last start? Bueherle is solid tonight, White Sox are a lock at -162.
I also see a lot of value in San Diego. I'm not totally confident that they'll win, but I think the Dodgers are favored too strongly, so I put $5 on the Padres at +185. Also put $5 on the Cubs over Houston and Red Wings over Penguins.
I don't like any basketball bet tonight. I'm rooting for the Lakers, and I'm very confident they'll win the series. I think -600 to take the series is a good price right now. Too bad I have a personal policy against taking any worse than -280 odds.
As for tonight, if I could bet even money, I'd take Orlando, but I'm not paying -190 for them on the moneyline. I can see either team getting blown out by 20 tonight, which in my mind makes the game totally unpredictable. I don't see any sense in paying -190 on a team that I wouldn't be surprised to see blown out by a large margin.
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Eh, I just put $5 on the Lakers moneyline at +185. Odds were too high for me to resist.Comment -
No way in hell the Magic get blown out tonight for several reasons.
1. The lakers hove shown this year and previous years in the playoffs that they do not have the "Killer Instinct" to close out teams in this situation. They showed proof of that in each series this year in the playoffs especially with houston.
2. The series should be 1-1. I know its not but the Magic played them even in game 2 even with the ghost calls against the magic when kobe had the ball.
3. The Magic are very good at home.
4. The lakers did what they were supposed to do the first 2 games. win their home games. Big deal..thats what they were supposed to do. Should we just give them the championship right now? The Magic should be the home favorite tonight just like the lakers were. Im not a Magic fan or a Laker hater just so you know.
Lets ease off of the Laker train and give a team in the Magic who are just as good as the lake show with just as many weapons a chance. Its a best of 7 not a best of 2. Magic win tonight by at least 7.Comment -
The lakers arent Boston of last year, they just simply arent as good as Boston last year. The magic are a solid team and if you play the laker ML tonight you are either fooling yourself or just taking the bet because of + money plain and simple...GLComment -
Yeah, I definitely took the Lakers tonight just because of the + money, same reason I took the Padres. Like I said, if it was even money, I'd take Orlando tonight. I still think there's no way Orlando sweeps 3 in a row at home, and there's no way the Lakers go back down 3-2. And I also don't see Orlando winning the last two games in LA. The 2-3-2 format in the finals is so skewed in favor of the team that opens at home, it's scary. There were several years in which the road team won something like 27 of 37 individual games in the early 1990s, so it wasn't nearly as obvious back then, but it has become more pronounced in recent years. If I remember correctly, I think Miami in 2006 was the first team to sweep the middle three games at home. It's very, very difficult.Comment -
Texas over Toronto is a play by the way. For what it's worth, it passed all my filters. I know it's too late to bet on it, but if Texas loses again tonight, I'll be chasing starting tomorrow. I went to go bet on it about 20 minutes ago but Matchbook was down.Comment -
As I posted in my thread...Texas ended up being a game i passed on because of the pitching change... If McCarthy had pitched i would have bet them... But when they made the pitching change to Mathis... I dropped it... Played nothing tonight... Who the hell was/is Mathis... If I cannot find anything on a pitcher...I either bet against him or pass. so I passed.Comment -
Hey BC I would like to know the backtest results of this system if you have done them. If not, then thats cool. Thanks.Comment -
Yep good move not betting. I still went with Tex because I love smashing my head into walls
I'm getting that icky feeling with Tex that I had with StL.....where is the offense?!?! Will Millwood bring it home today for us?
As far as the NBA talk I took LAL +6.5. Bought points and then did a 2 team teaser with LAL and the Over. So the Tex lost was not a total disaster with those wins.Comment -
Yes with my new filters ignoring the pitchers will not be an option...like my first system... So even though it worked for me this time not betting Texas... Next time probably will go the other way...but that is how it goes right...Yep good move not betting. I still went with Tex because I love smashing my head into walls I'm getting that icky feeling with Tex that I had with StL.....where is the offense?!?! Will Millwood bring it home today for us?
As far as the NBA talk I took LAL +6.5. Bought points and then did a 2 team teaser with LAL and the Over. So the Tex lost was not a total disaster with those wins.
Good work on the Lakers I almost went with Orlando Ml..would have won...but decided I was better off taking the night off...had a few things to take care of...
I like Millwood tonight...but you are right Toronto play them tough... But I still like Texas tonight...probably will bet them. That is the problem with the chases...the losing streaks that cannot be predicted! It was very hard for me to bet on Thompson in game #4 of the Cards series...but I thought..no way they get swept by a last place team at home...well of course they did and swept away my winnnings for the baseball season up to now... So with my system #2 a fresh start... Doing ok up to now...
GL tonight guys... G.Comment -
There were 5 unfiltered losses last year. Somebody else backtracked it either in this thread or the JM baseball thread, I don't remember. Of the 5 losses, 3 were filtered out. The only unfiltered ones both involved St. Louis in late July last year. One time they got swept, the other time they did the sweeping. You can check it on retrosheet.org.
The year before, there was a series when the Angels got swept at home, and they were heavily favored in every game, but that would have been filtered out because of the consecutive days rule. I don't like betting on teams that haven't had a day off in more than two weeks.
Pretty much, I think my system is very likely to not end up costing you money if you follow it through the entire season, but it might not be that profitable either. I only do this for fun, so it doesn't matter to me if I'm up 2 units or 200 units at the end of the season. I just don't want to be in the red when it's over.Comment -
If the Yanks jump on Boston early tonight I'll play Texas for sure. I think Millwood will come through.Comment -
I have small money on Boston and trying to win one unit on Texas, as if the St. Louis series never happened.
This is now 3 consecutive unfiltered losses involving St. Louis. Those ****ers suck.Comment -
Anyone still using this system? Dodgers and Marlins look like plays. Padres and Nationals may have been filtered out. How has this system done since its first loss of the season.Comment -
Just started this system after the All-Star break. After game 1 of the series' and added filters, I had LAD, CIN, and FLA as plays. CIN won so that's 1 win so far. FLA lost in the 12th unfortunately and LAD got blown away so I'll be chasing them into tomorrow's games.Comment -
I used to do this until I got crushed by the Rockies. I still think it's a good system. Careful with Fla/Philly....Phi is the best road team in the league. Hou is suddenly very hot too.Comment -
Since the Florida/Philly game got postponed, what do I do next? Do I play the play the final game in the series tomorrow as if it were the game that was supposed to be tonight or do I just take my loses from the first game and move on?Comment -
FYI
2 four game series starting tommorow
Giants at Braves
Rays at WsoxComment -
[quote=BouncedCheck;1846522]Instead of using the JM baseball thread to discuss and track my system, I figured it was time to start a new thread. The details of my system can mostly be found here:
That posts lists the filters, which I'm going to copy below. The premise of the system is that most teams rarely get swept at home during a 4-game series, so you wait for a 4-game series in which the home team loses the first game, then the next three games become a 3-game chase.
Here are the filters:
A HOME TEAM WINS FIRST GAME (GAME "0") OF FOUR GAME SERIES (GAME 2 IS GAME A, GAME 3 IS GAME B, GAME 4 IS GAME C)
B HOME TEAM HAS HOME WINNING PERCENTAGE UNDER .425
C VISITING TEAM HAS OVERALL WINNING PERCENTAGE OVER .645
D HOME TEAM HAS WON 9 OF LAST 10 AT HOME LEADING INTO SERIES
E HOME TEAM HAS LOST 9 OF LAST 10 AT HOME LEADING INTO SERIES
F HOME TEAM IS IN LAST PLACE AND VISITING TEAM IS IN FIRST PLACE (INCLUDING TIES) LEADING INTO SERIES (REGARDLESS OF DIVISIONS OR OVERALL RECORDS)
G LATE IN SEASON AND BOTH TEAMS ARE ELIMINATED FROM PLAYOFFS
H HOME TEAM HAS OVERALL WINNING PERCENTAGE UNDER .375
J HOME TEAM, LEADING INTO SERIES, HAS NO STARTER WITH ERA UNDER 4.80 SCHEDULED TO PITCH IN THE THREE GAMES ON WHICH TO BET (GAME "0" DOESN'T COUNT)
K HOME TEAM HASN'T HAD A DAY OFF IN THE PREVIOUS 12 DAYS LEADING INTO SERIES (MEANING POTENTIAL C GAME WOULD BE ON 16TH STRAIGHT DAY)
L TWO OR MORE OF ANY OF THE ABOVE FILTERS ARE *ALMOST* APPLICABLE
M GUT FEELING, INDEPENDENT OF ANY FILTERS, TELLS YOU TO STEER CLEAR OF THE SERIES
Guy's just remember that BC used several filters to attempt to keep from a series lost. Also if a series does not feel right, skip it! Nothing worse than a 3 game chase that goes wrong...trust me on that one. GL
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FYI
Upcoming Series
Jul27 Royals@ Orioles
Jul27 A's@ Red Sox
Jul27 Astros@ Cubs
Jul27 Padres@ Reds
Jul27 Nats @Brewers
Jul27 Rockies @Mets
Jul27 Dodgers@ Cards
Unless you've been playing a four games chase instead of a three, no action this weekend. If you were playing a four game chase, you were 4-0 the past two days. I didn't official compare the 4-0 games vs a filter but the eyeball check looked good. Also don't know whether the system is using or was backchecked including 4 game series that included a doubleheader.
Jul23 Pirates@Dbacks W
Jul23 Twins@Angels W
Jul23 A's@ Yankees W
Jul24 Wsox@ Tigers W
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This system that BC created is only started when the home team loses the 1st game. Theory is they won't lose all 4 at home. So the series you listed like NYY, AZ would not apply here. If you need more explaination go back and read the thread. Other than that if you did bet those games then congrats.Comment -
[quote=Blargh;2050870]FYI
Upcoming Series
Jul27 Royals@ Orioles KC 5-3 POSSIBLE PLAY
Jul27 A's@ Red Sox Bos 8-3 NO PLAY
Jul27 Astros@ Cubs Chi 5-1 NO PLAY
Jul27 Padres@ Reds Cin 6-4 NO PLAY
Jul27 Nats @Brewers Was 14-6 I'm playing this one
Jul27 Rockies @Mets NYM 7-3 NO PLAY
Jul27 Dodgers@ Cards Stl 6-1 NO PLAY
Well out of 7 possible series only two produced a loss last night. So you can chase Balt and or Mil. I labled Balt as a possible play because both teams are so bad. You have to love Mil even if they are playing terrible right now. Wash is basically the worst team in baseball and if they can win 4 games in a row on the road I'll quit betting baseball.Comment -
Well it appears that everyone ignored this thread and that's good because Mil and Balt suck!! I did not play either one after I really thought about things. I just did not like that Mil was -200 with a short reliever on the mound and Wash swinging a hot bat. Balt almost squeaked it out and I hold out more hope for them than Mil at this point. Good news is if you do want to bet on these teams it will only be a 1-2 game chase at this point. Bad news is you'll probably lose money.
Wash it putting a crappy pitcher out on the mound today but so is Mil. Again the line is around -200. Too much chalk and not enough confidence at this point for me to try and chase this one.Comment
