BouncedCheck 3-game chase system

BouncedCheck · 05-19-09, 02:22 PM

Atlanta -180 on matchbook.

BouncedCheck · 05-19-09, 08:02 PM

Originally posted by BouncedCheck

Oh wow, there was a 4-game series I didn't have listed on my spreadsheet. I guess that goes to show checking each team's schedule manually isn't fool-proof. As it turns out, Brewers at Cardinals would have been NO PLAY since the first game was rained out, but after the Brewers won games 2 and 3, betting the Cardinals on what would have been the C game probably isn't a bad bet. I don't like Lohse, but it's not like Looper is lights-out or anything, so I'm taking the Cardinals. Pujols is due for some homers. 1/5 unit on Cardinals! I also like Seattle over Anaheim in a duel between former World Champion teammates Lackey and Washburn, but that's the start of a new 4-game series, so I'm very light on that one, only 1/10 of a unit. That way if I lose it, I can just add it to the chase starting Tuesday.

God dammit I was right the first time. Monday was supposed to be an off-day. This was not originally on the schedule as a 4-game series. The rained out game on Friday was rescheduled for Monday. D'OH.

BouncedCheck · 05-20-09, 12:17 AM

God damn ****ing mother ****ing Felix ****ing Hernandez sucked monkey cock. ****.

Bakerdew · 05-20-09, 01:29 AM

Thankfully I did bet on Atlanta, partially on win, partially on RL. paid nice. Thanks for the work and the effort on this thread.

GGPLAYER · 05-20-09, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by BouncedCheck

God damn ****ing mother ****ing Felix ****ing Hernandez sucked monkey cock. ****.

Are you going to chase Sea? Jakubauskas scares the hell out of me.

BouncedCheck · 05-20-09, 03:39 PM

With a awesome name like Jakubauskas! HELL YEAH I'M CHASING!

I like Saunders, so if this goes to game C, I'm probably only going to chase to recoup losses from A and B, but hopefully it won't come to that. I got Seattle +130 earlier today.... should have waited to get +135 but it won't matter if Seattle wins because I enter bets based on the win amount, not the risk amount.

Santana is coming off the DL and Jakubauskas has an astronomical ERA. Independent of the system, I like the over in this game.

GGPLAYER · 05-20-09, 09:18 PM

Wow I'm on tilt right now. Waited to bet on this game until the Tex/Det one ended. I am getting cleaned out by the JM Chase

I thought the game was starting at 10:30 EST and missed the boat. So you can pretty much assume Sea will win now that I have no action on it. I'm just not in a good place right now.

johncrud · 05-20-09, 09:32 PM

man, i better stick with this system.. it is so much better. still no loss yet and it has wins mostly on A bets. i can't believe it... the first series chase end up in a "C" bet..

i personally think the filtering is awesome.. you filter out the very hot or very cold teams, while only play the average teams..

BouncedCheck · 05-20-09, 11:37 PM

Not exactly how I'd envisioned the Mariners winning this game, but I'll take it. I cost myself about 0.3 units by betting a few dollars on the over and supplementing my moneyline bet with a small amount on the Mariners -1.5 runline, but I don't care. I'm still coming out ahead.

BouncedCheck · 05-20-09, 11:53 PM

Up 9 units now for the year.

Attached Files

BouncedCheck · 05-21-09, 03:13 AM

Originally posted by johncrud

i personally think the filtering is awesome.. you filter out the very hot or very cold teams, while only play the average teams..

That's exactly right. It's stupid to bet on a really cold team. That much is obvious. I also don't like betting on hot teams because the old saying goes that you're never as bad as you look when you're losing and you're never as good as you look when you're winning. A team that's hot, like the Yankees are right now, can crash and burn at any given moment. You don't want to be the asshole left holding the bag when they self-implode.

GGPLAYER · 05-21-09, 08:13 AM

What did I tell you. No action for GG means winner for everyone else. Unreal.

johncrud · 05-21-09, 10:14 AM

Are you going to be posting the filtered plays everyday? I want to make sure that I have the right plays.

BouncedCheck · 05-21-09, 02:46 PM

Until I get tired of it, probably. Or if I lose enough money outside the system and decide to give up gambling. There are no guarantees in life. The filters are easy enough to research using mlb.com and sportsline if you have to do it on your own.

GGPLAYER · 05-22-09, 08:53 AM

I know it was filtered out but even the Nats fought off the 4 game sweep yesterday. Your system is proving to be very strong.

Vincepcion · 05-22-09, 06:14 PM

Thanks BouncedCheck...I will be bookmarking this thread lol

GGPLAYER · 05-26-09, 08:57 AM

Looks like Minny might be a play in this series? Clev pulled maybe the biggest comeback we'll see all Year! 7 runs in the 9th to steal the win. I was very close to betting TB in that game too

johncrud · 05-26-09, 09:28 AM

This play is being filtered out by "K".. But I still think it is a good play (good home record vs average road record). Just bet small and you will have no problem.

pros: good home record vs average road record, avenging for a near previous 3 game swept, minny has never been swept by boston at home since 06 or longer (BOS are 5-11 in the last 16 meetings in Minnesota.).

cons: Got swept before in a 4 game series (against yankee on the road), Boston is a top 3 rpi team, won 6 straight against minny so far.

milly is at even money now.

i am just going to break some rules by only doing a 2-game chase but i am going to chase at every opportunity regardless of the filters. most of the games have won at either [a] or [b] bet, only one series goes to [c]. 2 chase lost=3-4 units max. it might even be lower if you use matchbook.

updated a little more on the pros and cons.

mcbain · 05-26-09, 09:34 AM

I agree, good analysis except keep in mind:

Twins were swept ON THE ROAD at NYY.
Not often will they be swept at home.

If anyone could do it, I would think it would be BOS but I hope not!

GGPLAYER · 05-26-09, 09:56 AM

Originally posted by johncrud

This play is being filtered out by "K".. But I still think it is a good play (good home record vs average road record). Just bet small or you will have no problem.

pros: good home record vs average road record, avenging for a near previous 3 game swept
cons: got swept by the yankee in a 4 game series, 3 top team in rpi

milly is at even money now.

i am just going to break some rules by only doing a 2-game chase but i am going to chase at every opportunity regardless of the filters. most of the games are won at [a] or [b] bet, only one series that goes to [c]. 2 chase lost=3-4 units max. it might even be lower if you use matchbook.

Thanks for the heads up. I have chased some that were filtered out and still won. NOT saying that is the wise thing to do but again it's tough to beat a team (even Wash) 4 times in a row on the road. I think the one facter I like here is how great Min is at home and it's a real advantage for them to play in that goofy dome. GL guys

BouncedCheck · 05-26-09, 10:07 PM

Won .4 units on the Twinkies, played for a smaller amount because of the filter. I like that dome. Too bad they're leaving it for some bland "retro" cookie cutter outdoor ballpark where it's going to snow on them all year.

johncrud · 05-26-09, 10:17 PM

no need to sweat on this one. it was a very smooth ride to the bank

system plays are the best. no research involved. just bet, have fun whereever and then check the score at the end of the day.

mcbain · 05-26-09, 11:13 PM

Nice work, Bounced Check.

Your system is unheralded but it is rolling along nicely.

Twins will not get swept at home in the dome, no doubt about that.

GGPLAYER · 05-27-09, 09:02 AM

A huge shout out to Bounced Check for coming up with and sharing this chase system. It's the only one I am making money on and feel confident about betting each time.

Panekkkk · 05-27-09, 10:04 AM

Hey bounced,

You only use the filters to decide the chase right? You don't try and apply them again after chase A if it loses correct? Because if a team loses chase A, their home winning percentage might dip below .475 for example?

therber2 · 05-27-09, 10:52 AM

Really good work BC. GL with the rest of the season. This is really interesting.

BouncedCheck · 05-27-09, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

Hey bounced,

You only use the filters to decide the chase right? You don't try and apply them again after chase A if it loses correct? Because if a team loses chase A, their home winning percentage might dip below .475 for example?

Yeah, you only check filters after the home team loses Game "0"

Once you've lost money on Game A, you should double up on Game B, and then C, if necessary.

GGPLAYER · 05-28-09, 08:19 AM

Only 5 games on tap today but 3 are the start of a 4 series set. Could be some action for us tomorrow.

BouncedCheck · 05-29-09, 01:53 AM

Cubs.

therber2 · 05-29-09, 03:44 AM

Originally posted by BouncedCheck

Cubs.

It's the Dodgers. w-PCT = .694
FILTER C

No play?

BouncedCheck · 05-29-09, 04:05 AM

D'OH

Good catch

NO PLAY

Too bad I already placed my bet LOL. But at least if I lose, it won't count as a loss in the system.

therber2 · 05-29-09, 08:56 AM

Sorry BC. Haha. It will be a close game I think. Dodgers have a pitcher's edge, but the Cubs are a rockin team. BOL with your bet.

GGPLAYER · 05-29-09, 09:20 AM

I may chase this one at my own risk of course. I just like the Cubs at home sort of like Minny earlier this week. LAD is hot but again it's tough to beat a team 4 times in a row on the road. GL guys.

GGPLAYER · 05-29-09, 09:48 AM

Originally posted by GGPLAYER

I may chase this one at my own risk of course. I just like the Cubs at home sort of like Minny earlier this week. LAD is hot but again it's tough to beat a team 4 times in a row on the road. GL guys.

Ok maybe I won't chase this one. I just took a closer look and no Big Z or Harden plus the Cubs are melting down. There will be better series to chase. I trying to learn patience

BouncedCheck · 05-29-09, 12:44 PM

I got out of my bet. I originally bet the Cubs at matchbook +103, then I hedged the Dodgers at -103 and both were offers, so I make profit on the commission regardless of the outcome.

I have 1/10 unit each on San Diego, San Francisco, and Atlanta tonight.

I wouldn't touch that Toronto JM play with a 10-foot pole this weekend.

We got another 4-game series starting today with the Oakland/Texas doubleheader. If Oakland wins the first game, the Rangers pass all my filters, so there's a chase starting with Game 2.