o/u 0.5 1st inning plays

[sammst3r]

if you have the data, i can help apply the filters in Excel...

anyone playing these 1st inning plays realize that Yankees have scored in the first inning only 8% of road games this year?

or how many times those same 8% road scoring Yankees played a home team scoring in only 12% of the games?
or that Milwaukee has scored in almost 50% of their games in the first inning???

or that the rockies are towards the bottom on league in scoring in first inning???

wish i knew how to import sort and search using xcel because using a few parameters might yield some truly valuable plays when used in conjunction with current P vs B matchups/lineups and weather

anyone able to help with this?

I have two other filters I am very optimistic would be very useful in narrowing plays

[thekoreanmang]

anyone playing these 1st inning plays realize that Yankees have scored in the first inning only 8% of road games this year?

or how many times those same 8% road scoring Yankees played a home team scoring in only 12% of the games?
or that Milwaukee has scored in almost 50% of their Home games in the first inning???

or that the rockies are towards the bottom on league in scoring in first inning??? scoring 2x more in first at home than on the road

wish i knew how to import sort and search using xcel because using a few parameters might yield some truly valuable plays when used in conjunction with current P vs B matchups/lineups and weather

anyone able to help with this?

I have two other filters I am very optimistic would be very useful in narrowing plays

I wish I could help with this but just this post alone shows why it's good to have differing viewpoints. We can challenge each other to produce better results.

[jjgold]

These are tough

I call them pressure bets

[sammst3r]

2 for 3 -- good f'in ish today, TT! Keep up the solid work!

[chaka]

Good work. I know the system is hitting some volatility, but hey, it's a new system and you're trying things out. I'm sure you will fig it out and things will stabilize.

I appreciate the work being done here but I also appreciate the critics on this thread as well because it's good to be fully informed of all the issues at play especially for those are not familiar to all of the aspects of smart betting. I know I can always learn more.

Here's an example of why 4% per play is ill advised on a volatile prop system.

Use poker analogy, at the table what do they commonly talk about?
The announcers talk about the Number of big blinds each player has remaining.

The More blinds you have, the longer you can play normally without being forced to take extra risks to survive


4% of bankroll playing avg -120 odds is equivalent to 20 big blinds...

The reason you dont have 25 blinds (100 /4=25) is because these plays (my example) are being played with avg money line of -120

Laying -140 or more leaves even less chance of enduring bad run. Naturally there will be a small +110 or even money wager mixed in thus using -120 lay avg.

Theoretically an 0-20 losing streak wipes you out or would put you in tilt territory.

Very typical to read about players when they are continually down sizing wagers during losing streak -the mind has tendency to say "I'm not going to win anything at these small reduced size wagers"..and the probability percent based wagering stops, common sense goes out the window and tilt mode sets in where players Just go all in

Of course it's hard to lose 20 in a row out of the chute...but anyone just hopping on this system right after the 5-1 day and 13-5 start would be looking like this:
(Note:now OP had a net 4 unit positive head start to offset those first 5 losses)

new players that came a day after look like this

L L L L L. L L L W W L W W
How much bankroll left after just 3 days?

Well this depends on the odds -not just 4% bankroll
This is why I asked what OP got for lines on each game because there's a huge difference(using same win- loss as above ) if :

one is risking max 4 % laying -120 to net 83% of the 4% BR wager
or
risking -120 trying to win 4%

Heres the difference between playin to win and risking full 4%
for simplicity we have a 1k bankroll thus 4% = $40
laying - 120 odds so risking $50 to win $40


L -50
L-50
L -50
L -50
L -50. After day 1 0-5 lost $250 -25% bankroll

L -50
L -50
L -50
W 40
W 40. After day 2 and 2-3 record a net loss of $-70. Total record 2-8 net loss of -$320. $680 bankroll left

L -50
W 40
W 40 After day 3. 2-1 record results in net win $20
Total record after 3 days 4-9 net loss of -300 $700 bankroll left
approx 14 $50 plays left to risk due to bad start

Using 2% rather than 4%, you've now just doubled your expected life span
provided you play stable and hit enough winners
This way you would still have $850 or 85%of your BR with the same 4-9 record

Now here is a subtle change in wagering style but take note the difference in net loss
You are still risking 4% @ -120 odds but capping wager amount "risked" as the 4 %

day 1 $40 to win 33
L -40
L -40
L -40
L -40
L -40. 0-5 win/loss net loss -200

day 2
L -40
L -40
L -40
W 33.33
W 33.33. 2-3 win/loss net loss -53.34.
Record after day 2 2-8 w-l. -$253.34

Day 3
L -40
W 33.33
w. 33.33
Recorde 2-1 gain $27

Total 4-9. -$226 net loss rounded. $774 bankroll left

You have the same exact record laying same odds of -120 but you have almost 2 more $40 plays at your disposal (saved risk)than risking to win full 4%


someone playing 2% max wager like the second example would only be down about
-$113

so can everyone see how drastic your bankroll can be preserved by how you place your wagers?

OP if he decides to not ignore this post will argue it holds potential winnings down...

I believe most people here would prefer they play their bankroll as long as possible

Likely don't have ample time to gain the necessary handicapping experience or are new players but love the excitement and tail along just along for the ride

Secondly you need to show consistent profit making winners for an extended period for that to be relevant..

[thekoreanmang]

Very nice explanatory post, chaka. The typos and lack of grammar make it hard to understand at certain points, but overall, the message is loud and clear: wager less on volatile picks such as first inning yes/no score plays, especially where multiple are being given out in a day.

For a guy like lep, though, do you suggest doing the same 2%? Or do you keep into account his great success thus far (knowing full well that past results don't predict future outcomes)?

Do you tend to risk more on lower volatile picks? And what is considered lower volatility? Just anything is a full game pick?

[TechnicalTrader]

So after those two "rough" days I'm still down a little bit. Considering the big hit I took the other day, it really isn't that bad. This will happen, I just hope we are at the end of the cycle. Here are today's picks:

Over
LAD/MIL 4% risk (-101)
BAL/SEA 4% risk (-111)


I'll see how system 2 is doing and get those picks up later also.

Bankroll at start: $700.00
Record: 17-14
Total Profit: -6.8%
Bankroll day 7: $652.46

Hit rate: 54.8%

[TechnicalTrader]

System 2 is 8 and 6. Nothing special, right about breakeven.

Here is today's system 2 pick:

Over
KC/STL

[TechnicalTrader]

adding one more:

Under
SFG/OAK 4% risk (-134)

-----

Now at:

Over
LAD/MIL 4% risk (-101)
BAL/SEA 4% risk (-111)
Under
SFG/OAK 4% risk (-134)

[chaka]

Very nice explanatory post, chaka. The typos and lack of grammar make it hard to understand at certain points, but overall, the message is loud and clear: wager less on volatile picks such as first inning yes/no score plays, especially where multiple are being given out in a day.

For a guy like lep, though, do you suggest doing the same 2%? Or do you keep into account his great success thus far (knowing full well that past results don't predict future outcomes)?

Do you tend to risk more on lower volatile picks? And what is considered lower volatility? Just anything is a full game pick?

Sorry i have trouble at times posting on sbr.. I've asked for assistance to no avail. its like i type a sentence but nothing appears for second thenThe whole sentence pops up. Doesnt matter which browser or pc i post from ..auto capitalizes words ugh.. Anyway

I cleaned up my post so hopefully it reads more clearly.
The rest of your questions i will address after i create a new thread out of respect for OP not clog his thread

[thekoreanmang]

Sorry i have trouble at times posting on sbr.. I've asked for assistance to no avail. its like i type a sentence but nothing appears for second thenThe whole sentence pops up. Doesnt matter which browser or pc i post from ..auto capitalizes words ugh.. Anyway

I cleaned up my post so hopefully it reads more clearly.
The rest of your questions i will address after i create a new thread out of respect for OP not clog his thread

Awesome. Thanks. Your insights are much appreciated.

[BIG]

Bumgarners a bum I hope he fking gets beaned tonight.

[TechnicalTrader]

On the go today, will post numbers later.

Today's picks:

CLE/TOR U
TEX/MIN O
LAA/BOS O

[thekoreanmang]

adding one more:

Under
SFG/OAK 4% risk (-134)

-----

Now at:

Over
LAD/MIL 4% risk (-101)
BAL/SEA 4% risk (-111)
Under
SFG/OAK 4% risk (-134)

2-1 last night. Turning around slowly but surely.

[thekoreanmang]

System 2 is 8 and 6. Nothing special, right about breakeven.

Here is today's system 2 pick:

Over
KC/STL

1-0 on system 2. This matched lep last night too.

[TechnicalTrader]

1-0 on system 2. This matched lep last night too.

Thanks, system 2 and also 1

PIT/OAK U

risking 4% everywhere again

[FlyinAir]

[thekoreanmang]

On the go today, will post numbers later.

Today's picks:

CLE/TOR U
TEX/MIN O
LAA/BOS O

2-1 today with the PIT/OAK U pending.

4-2 today and last night combined.

[Fernburn74]

The bet is Pitts : oak no f inning score ?

[TechnicalTrader]

4 and 2 over the last two days.

Finally starting to bounce back slowly. I will be a little more selective today, I've narrowed my plays down to strong and very strong signals and as of now will only play them while bailing system 2. I've got too much crapgoing on at work and two huge games this wekend I'll need to prepare for. I might play around with sys-2 during the AS break and see if I can modify it then.

Let's get the BR back in to the green!

Bankroll at start: $700.00
Record: 21-16
Total Profit: -1.9%
Bankroll day 7: $687.38

Hit rate: 56.8%

[TechnicalTrader]

The bet is Pitts : oak no f inning score ?

Yes it was PIT/OAK. My bad, typo.

[thekoreanmang]

Good job, mang. Keep up the good twerk!

[TechnicalTrader]

Thanks,here we go:

TEX/MIN O (-154)
CWS/HOU U (-117)
CIN/WAS O (-115)
LAA/BOS O (-139)
COL/LAD O (-105

I am getting strong under signals on the CLE/TOR game but refuse to bet on games with MiLB or bullpen pitchers starting.

Let's go!

[TechnicalTrader]

1 down, 4 to go.

[FlyinAir]

[thekoreanmang]

TEX/MIN O (-154) W
CWS/HOU U (-117) L
CIN/WAS O (-115) W
LAA/BOS O (-139) W
COL/LAD O (-105 Pending

[TechnicalTrader]

Thanks,here we go:

TEX/MIN O (-154)
CWS/HOU U (-117)
CIN/WAS O (-115)
LAA/BOS O (-139)
COL/LAD O (-105

I am getting strong under signals on the CLE/TOR game but refuse to bet on games with MiLB or bullpen pitchers starting.

Let's go!

4 and 1, finally coming back!

Bankroll at start: $700.00
Record: 25-17
Total Profit: 7.8%
Bankroll day 11: $754.25

Hit rate: 59.52%

[TechnicalTrader]

Looking at 5 more over picks for today. Is anyone out there trailing me??

[jefff]

Looking at 5 more over picks for today. Is anyone out there trailing me??

good luck today. thanks for sharing

[LetsgoJay]

Looking at 5 more over picks for today. Is anyone out there trailing me??

I'm tailing!

[TechnicalTrader]

Cool, let's do it fellows!

[jlani93]

I tailed on the OVER .5's yesterday.

Thanks for sharing...Good luck today!

SaveSave

[TechnicalTrader]

all overs, risking 4% as usual:

DET/TB
BAL/SEA
MIA/ATL
KC/PHI
CIN/WAS

[lep]

Good job!

[TechnicalTrader]

Good job!

Thanks and thanks fir stopping by!