o/u 0.5 1st inning plays

[thekoreanmang]

Excellent work, I tailed for the first time today Quick question, where do you find 1st inning ERA and other info for 1st inning stats. I looked on baseball reference and teamrankings sites but couldn't seem to find 1st inning ERA info.

Thanks for any info you could pass on, keep up the great work!

Use this:

[TechnicalTrader]

Excellent work, I tailed for the first time today Quick question, where do you find 1st inning ERA and other info for 1st inning stats. I looked on baseball reference and teamrankings sites but couldn't seem to find 1st inning ERA info.

Thanks for any info you could pass on, keep up the great work!

On both sites:

Baseball reference; player split finder
Teamrankings: under team stats

There is a lot more behind it though... Believe me, don't just buy in to teams who rarely score at home or pitchers with high/low first inning era's. Be smart about it, that's allI'm going to say.

Now let's get at least two of the next three!

[TechnicalTrader]

Use this:

One more thing; ERA is not that important. A pitcher can give up five runs in the first inning, twice in a row and be completely lights out for the next seven appearances and still have a crappy 1st inning ERA... Seven outings is a long time, pitchers evolve during the season, keep that in mind.

[jlani93]

Great job on calling the LAA/TB today!

I saw Lep's post and already placed it before I saw your picks for the UNDER & thoughts on it.

I haven't seen Lep lose 3 in a row since I started following last month...plus said he shares the game he likes the most each day...so hopefully followed Lep w/the over.

Anyway...BOL on the other games today.

[TechnicalTrader]

Great job on calling the LAA/TB today!

I saw Lep's post and already placed it before I saw your picks for the UNDER & thoughts on it.

I haven't seen Lep lose 3 in a row since I started following last month...plus said he shares the game he likes the most each day...so hopefully followed Lep w/the over.

Anyway...BOL on the other games today.

He's not going to lose four in a row, so count me in on trailing him if he posts another pick today!

[MoMoney2]

Thanks for the info! Trust me I am not going to go and start making pick on my own just yet, I will leave that to you I am just trying to learn what all this info means. I am a total newbie to this so just trying to be a sponge! Look forward to more great insight!

[chaka]

One more thing; ERA is not that important. A pitcher can give up five runs in the first inning, twice in a row and be completely lights out for the next seven appearances and still have a crappy 1st inning ERA... Seven outings is a long time, pitchers evolve during the season, keep that in mind.

Based on last few posts...Looks like form /past performances &odds matter all of a sudden. 😎
Good analysis ...posting/ analyzing odds ..managing risk...looks like trader on path to being a legit capper
Eventually you will be targeting games before lines come out

wish you continued success however tread carefully after all star break if you plan to hike your roll to 8-10k...

Perhaps sammy3 can pull up past history of early games after the break.... I wouldn't be surprised with slow starts all around (doesn't mean blanket the unders blindly)

[TechnicalTrader]

I just noticed that I did indeed take a 4% risk on that Phillies game. Very happy with this little streak I got going. I added a few more indicators to the system. At first it was extremely technical, based only on certain team trends. I just recently started to add more SP data to the formula and it's been working better. If I can keep the hit rate around 60%, I think I'll be good.

Right now I'm looking at three unders and one over, but I still have five matchups to go through. It looks like we might have five to six picks tonight.



Bankroll at start: $700.00
Record: 42-27
Total Profit: 34%
Bankroll day 16: $938.09

Hit rate: 60.87%

[FlyinAir]

[chaka]

I just noticed that I did indeed take a 4% risk on that Phillies game. Very happy with this little streak I got going. I added a few more indicators to the system. At first it was extremely technical, based only on certain team trends. I just recently started to add more SP data to the formula and it's been working better. If I can keep the hit rate around 60%, I think I'll be good.

Right now I'm looking at three unders and one over, but I still have five matchups to go through. It looks like we might have five to six picks tonight.



Bankroll at start: $700.00
Record: 42-27
Total Profit: 34%
Bankroll day 16: $938.09

Hit rate: 60.87%

remember its not so much the 60% its at what odds the 60% hit at... keep focus more on profit not so much percentage..
60% on hundreds of plays wont be attainable unless you reduce to few plays per day and hit em hard

60% on all -125 wagers nets the same as 50% of all +120..everyone should let that sink in for a minute.
i'll bet 99.5% of the forum would have thought 60% would be way ahead
keep it up!

[MoMoney2]

I really like the under in the ATL/CHW game tonight at -120. Both ATL and CHW are at the bottom of the league in runs scored in the 1st inning ranking 29th and 26th. Any thoughts guys?

[TechnicalTrader]

Here we go:

Risking 4%
CHC/PIT U -125
ATL/CWS O -115
PHI/COL U +145
SD/LAD O -105
ARZ/SFG U -120

[TechnicalTrader]

I really like the under in the ATL/CHW game tonight at -120. Both ATL and CHW are at the bottom of the league in runs scored in the 1st inning ranking 29th and 26th. Any thoughts guys?

I like the fact that both SP's are knnown for giving up runs in the first. I also see some nice momentum for the white sox coming in...

[TechnicalTrader]

Here we go:

Risking 4%
CHC/PIT U -125
ATL/CWS O -115
PHI/COL U +145
SD/LAD O -105
ARZ/SFG U -120

Adding:
LAA/BAL O -130

[Hawk007]

Battling you on the Cub/Pit game.

GL on all the rest,

[TechnicalTrader]

2 down 4 to go.

[TechnicalTrader]

btw, i got two in game bets going on the pirates and the marlins games. both unders in the second.

[Hawk007]

Nice call on the Cubbies

[TechnicalTrader]

btw, i got two in game bets going on the pirates and the marlins games. both unders in the second.

1 and 1 on the in-games...

[TechnicalTrader]

Live-in game:

WAS/NYM 2nd inning
under 0.5

EDIT; 1:2, done with in game bets. LOL

[Ro0k]

I hate it when that happens lol.

[TechnicalTrader]

Nice call on the Cubbies

Thanks, how are your 1st inning bets going?

[TechnicalTrader]

CHC/PIT U -125 Win
ATL/CWS O -115 Win
PHI/COL U +145 Win
SD/LAD O -105
ARZ/SFG U -120
LAA/BAL O -130 Win

4 down, 2 to go! Let's do this!!

[thekoreanmang]

CHC/PIT U -125 Win
ATL/CWS O -115 Win
PHI/COL U +145 Win
SD/LAD O -105
ARZ/SFG U -120
LAA/BAL O -130 Win

4 down, 2 to go! Let's do this!!

Now that's what I'm talkin about!

[jlani93]

CHC/PIT U -125 Win
ATL/CWS O -115 Win
PHI/COL U +145 Win
SD/LAD O -105
ARZ/SFG U -120
LAA/BAL O -130 Win

4 down, 2 to go! Let's do this!!

Congrats on your wins. You're having a great day today! Good luck on the last 2 games tonight.

I can't believe I made the mistake of parlaying the ATL/CWS with SEA/KC.

I don't know what factors to consider when you decide Yes or No on 1st innings, so I could be completely wrong--is the predicted O/U get factored in? Seems like the games w/predicted UNDER scores rarely get a 1st inning run. ???

[TechnicalTrader]

5 and 1 yesterday. Super happy to be over 50% in under 3 weeks. I'm sure a down day is right around the corner though.

Bankroll at start: $700.00
Record: 47-28
Total Profit: 54.59%
Bankroll day 17: $1082.14

Hit rate: 62.67%

[TechnicalTrader]

Congrats on your wins. You're having a great day today! Good luck on the last 2 games tonight.

I can't believe I made the mistake of parlaying the ATL/CWS with SEA/KC.

I don't know what factors to consider when you decide Yes or No on 1st innings, so I could be completely wrong--is the predicted O/U get factored in? Seems like the games w/predicted UNDER scores rarely get a 1st inning run. ???

I did not like that SEA/KC matchup at all. SEA usually sucks in the first inning, on the road and Ventura has been very good in the first inning over his last five starts, despite his high first inning ERA. The Royals have only scored once in the first inning during the entire July. I'd have to really look in to this, but I am pretty sure their first inning production has been terrible since Gordon returned from the DL.

Of course, it's easy to crunch numbers the next day but you should see where I am going with this....

[TanBanana]

Good work in here, TT.

[TechnicalTrader]

Good work in here, TT.

Thank you kind sir.

Currently looking at two overs and two unders today. Should have them up in about two hours.

[jefff]

thanks TT. nice day

[TechnicalTrader]

Heading out to the field for pregame and will not be able to post lines, etc today.

again, risking 4%. Here they are:

DET/TOR U
NYY/CLE U
SEA/KC O
SD/LAD O

[TechnicalTrader]

Heading out to the field for pregame and will not be able to post lines, etc today.

again, risking 4%. Here they are:

DET/TOR U
NYY/CLE U
SEA/KC O
SD/LAD O

Updated with lines (I did get the TOR bet in)

DET/TOR U +130
NYY/CLE U -120
SEA/KC O -120
SD/LAD O +100

"one down" three to go!

[TechnicalTrader]

Updated with lines (I did get the TOR bet in)

DET/TOR U +130
NYY/CLE U -120
SEA/KC O -120
SD/LAD O +100

"one down" three to go!

1 and 2 on the day. Let's get that last game!

[tpark77]

What do you think about MIN/TEX?

[TechnicalTrader]

What do you think about MIN/TEX?

No data on Lohse, laying off that game.

My secondary bets would be:

CHC/PIT U
PHI/COL O

But the data I have isn't really blowing me away. Maybe a half unit each???