Posey's Pick Of The Day

[posey]

6/16

Braves +145, L, -1.00 u.
Nationals +114, W, 1.14 u.
Brewers +104, L, -1.00 u.
Dbacks +171, L, -1.00 u.
Parlay Pirates + & Dodgers +174, L, -1.00 u.
Cardinals -1 -125, P, +-0.00 u.
Phillies +200, L, -1.00 u.
Cubs -1 +110, L, -1.00 u.
Marlins +104, W, +1.04 u.

Yesterday: 2-6, -3.82 u.
Record: 69-67, +10.00 u.

Don't regret playing either of those (although of course lilttle bit too many plays), still believe in them being profitable long term.

[posey]

6/17

(Not putting money on it right now, but taking a further look at those):
- MIA/NYY*
- DET/CIN*
- MIL*/KCR
- SDP*/OAK
- TEX/LAD***
- STL**/MIN
- HOU*/COL

Maybe I'll parlay STL+LAD.

Rest without much value IMO.

[nickmo198]

I understand what your saying about him, I don't think he's that great and his numbers are not telling everything. However I always love betting on the dodgers even at -200 value I have no issue betting 1k on them. However they are a different team on the road they can't score and I know the way you do everything is heavily relied on value which is why I honestly liked Texas but after reading u couldn't go for it. I've bet 1k on Kershaw 3 straight starts but tmw at -275 even for me the value maybe way too high take.

[posey]

I watched Chi Chi when he pitched at Oakland where he gave up 1 ER and he should have been punished with at least 4 or 5 and not 1. Multiple times the hitters made solid contact off him but hit everything right to a fielder. He can't strike anyone out and he walks way too many. Have you seen him pitch? It's not only his numbers. Watch him pitch and you know what I mean.

[posey]

Okay, here's my value table for today, below are my bets.

6/17

Value (*** = massive value, ** = good value, * = value):
- TBR/WSH (no v)
- MIA/NYY*
- BAL/PHI (no v)
- NYM/TOR (no v)
- CHC/CLE (no v)
- BOS*/ATL
- DET/CIN*
- PIT*/CHS
- MIL**/KCR
- LAA/ARI (no v)
- SDP*/OAK
- SFG/SEA (no v)
- TEX/LAD**
- STL**/MIN
- HOU*/COL

Bets:
- Parlay NYY ML + LAD ML +110
- Pirates ML -107
- Brewers ML +123
- Cardinals ML -122

Wanna draw down my amount of bets. There not all plays with value are bets.

[mitch51]

Love what you are doing here, Posey. Thanks.

[RollinDo]

Posey - hoping for a bounce back day for you today.
I like all your plays...except Brewers - don't think I could bet on them for rest of the year...BUT if you are to back them, probably Fiers on road is the best chance.

[44 Mag]

Okay, here's my value table for today, below are my bets.

6/17

Value (*** = massive value, ** = good value, * = value):
- TBR/WSH (no v)
- MIA/NYY*
- BAL/PHI (no v)
- NYM/TOR (no v)
- CHC/CLE (no v)
- BOS*/ATL
- DET/CIN*
- PIT*/CHS
- MIL**/KCR
- LAA/ARI (no v)
- SDP*/OAK
- SFG/SEA (no v)
- TEX/LAD**
- STL**/MIN
- HOU*/COL

Bets:
- Parlay NYY ML + LAD ML +110
- Pirates ML -107
- Brewers ML +123
- Cardinals ML -122

Wanna draw down my amount of bets. There not all plays with value are bets.

Question ??? What am I missing??? LAD in a parlay plus 110. ???

[EVfollower]

Good to see were both on Pirates and Cards. Don't see how you see 2* value in -275 pitcher even if he wins...think bout it, 27% chance based on odds of rangers who are hot as heck winning tonight. Anyways good luck, hope first two we both win. On texas personally for a unit.

[posey]

Looks like another losing day.
NYY and PIT wins, okay.
LAD is about to lose (suckers with RISP) and STL can't score runs off Milone, wtf. MIL won't be picked over the next time. If you can't score runs off Blanton and your (maybe) best starter can not keep it done, you should not be bet on.

@Mag: I don't understand your question, sry. The +110 are the odds of the parlay.

@EVfollower: Why I saw value? I had capped this game at about 80% Dodgers. Reasons: Kershaw looking very good lately and Dodgers a different team at home. But most important to me was the fact, that Dodgers were (were, since they'll lose) on a 13-0 streak at home when Kershaw was pitching with odds of bigger than -200.

Gonna be about -2 units again today, maybe I'll take a break.

[posey]

Bets:
- Parlay NYY ML + LAD ML +110, L, -1.00 u
- Pirates ML -107, W, +0.93 u
- Brewers ML +123, L, -1.00 u
- Cardinals ML -122, L, -1.00 u

Yesterday: 1-3, -2,07 u.
Record: 70-70, +7.97 u.

Nice, losing 6 units in a short time span.

Fade the favs when they win, pick the dogs when they lose.

[MikeyD323]

Looks like another losing day.
NYY and PIT wins, okay.
LAD is about to lose (suckers with RISP) and STL can't score runs off Milone, wtf. MIL won't be picked over the next time. If you can't score runs off Blanton and your (maybe) best starter can not keep it done, you should not be bet on.

@Mag: I don't understand your question, sry. The +110 are the odds of the parlay.

@EVfollower: Why I saw value? I had capped this game at about 80% Dodgers. Reasons: Kershaw looking very good lately and Dodgers a different team at home. But most important to me was the fact, that Dodgers were (were, since they'll lose) on a 13-0 streak at home when Kershaw was pitching with odds of bigger than -200.

Gonna be about -2 units again today, maybe I'll take a break.

You were doing so well taking your time capping and researching and picking one good game a day. Now you are throwing picks out there in multiples. Classic blow your bankroll after one hot streak and get crushed trying to do too much. Money management. Please go back to your old ways and go on another 10-0 streak. You were a backbone in peoples daily card in which they could rely on one great pick a day from you. Now it is out of hand. We need you back lol.

[Big Bear]

You were doing so well taking your time capping and researching and picking one good game a day. Now you are throwing picks out there in multiples. Classic blow your bankroll after one hot streak and get crushed trying to do too much. Money management. Please go back to your old ways and go on another 10-0 streak. You were a backbone in peoples daily card in which they could rely on one great pick a day from you. Now it is out of hand. We need you back lol.

exactly.

Posey you were crushing it when you weren't doing such high volume.

you must have been hitting 75% when you were doing those long write-ups on single games.

Nobody can win betting high volume.

[BeanTownClown88]

Sux picking 1..I find I do better when picking 3 or 4...mostly 3..just try for 2 Of 3 or sweeps..hard to lose all 3 and its hard to lose big chunks to BR

[posey]

You are all right and therefore I gonna get back to my standard capping and playing less volume. I don't know what has changed, it wasn't my mindset (at least not in a way that I would have noticed it myself). Somehow there were lots of games lately which I really liked. Odds seemed sometimes way off and as it is when you pick (too) many games at +odds you gotta hit one bad streak and you land in the toilet. The funny thing about that is that I know that myself. No clue why did such a bullshit. But sometimes it needs an opinion and from outside or another person to fully realize it. Therefore: THX.

[jailbait7127]

i never wanted to say that because who am i to tell him how to play his picks?

but i do agree... posey you have one of the best MLB minds here ... lets go on a run

[posey]

Thanks!

6/19

PIT/CHS UNDER 7 +107

The White Sox have scored a mere 3 runs in their last 4 and are now up against one of the hottest starters in the MLB. Teams score an average of 2.4 runs against the Pirates since May when Gerrit Cole starts. On the other hand he doesn't get much run support either (3.1 runs/game since then). Therefore 5 of his last 8 starts have gone under with 3 pushes.

Jeff Samardzija is up for the struggling White Sox. He has some disastrous road stats (5.71 ERA, 1.48 WHIP), but he tends to do better at US Cellular Field (3.57 ERA, 1.10 WHIP). Opposed to Cole who hasn't seen much of the White Sox lineup over his career, Samardzija knows ceveral Buccos very well. McCutchen has owned him (.414 AVG, 1.100 OPS in 29 ABs), but most of the other Pirates haven't done well against him (they combine for a .196 AVG). Pirates bats have been rather silent on the road compared to their home games. And the Over/Under is 2-7 when Samardzija starts versus the Buccos (1.6 - 2.7 average score).

The scheduled HPU is Dan Bellino. The Over/Under is 4-12 since July '13 when the home team is a dog.
When the home team is a dog, has lost at least 5 straight and the opposing team has won at least 5 straight, the Over/Under is 5-21 (3 Pushes) since August 2005 and even 1-13 since 2010 (average score 2.3 - 3.4).
Looks like the wind is blowing out to right heavily, but this isn't too much a factor for me here. Samardzija had troubles to keep the ball on the ground thusfar, but has allowed only 0.76 HR/9 at home (opposed to 1.38 HR/9 on the road), while Cole has an above 50% GB-rate and has allowed less than 0.50 HR/9 this season.

[terrortwylight]

You are all right and therefore I gonna get back to my standard capping and playing less volume. I don't know what has changed, it wasn't my mindset (at least not in a way that I would have noticed it myself). Somehow there were lots of games lately which I really liked. Odds seemed sometimes way off and as it is when you pick (too) many games at +odds you gotta hit one bad streak and you land in the toilet. The funny thing about that is that I know that myself. No clue why did such a bullshit. But sometimes it needs an opinion and from outside or another person to fully realize it. Therefore: THX.

Hey brother -

You're a great capper. I seriously respect your abilities. I know I'm not going to be able to tell you anything you don't already know.

The volume is going to kill you. Literally the only guy I have ever seen play relatively heavy volume and still win consistently is LT. Goes to show you a couple things - a) he's a superhuman and b) it's not normal.

You have an amazing ability to zero in on the right pick for the value and the right team to win. It sounds silly but that is rare. We get hot and then we cool off.. so we start doing tinkering with things in vain to try and get hot again. My entire 2015 MLB season has been a disaster so far because I started doing things I never did before just to try and find a shortcut to get ahead quick.

Again, I know I'm not telling you anything you don't know. But get back to doing it the way you know it works. I'm pulling for you.

[terrortwylight]

Thanks!

6/19
PIT/CHS UNDER 7 +107

Also I love the fact that you're on the under here.. it made my short list as well..

[posey]

terrortwylight, thank you and you are absolutely right. I have to admit that you don't tell me anything new, but it's helpful nonetheless in the kind of a reminder. You are absolutely right that you will get killed when do things you've never done before and I know it myself, since that's something I tell others on a regular base. Nonetheless and as I said I really don't know why, I made the mistake myself. Hope this time is gone for now.



For all who are curious, I added some reasoning to my PIT/CHS pick in post #297.

[44 Mag]

Thanks!

6/19

PIT/CHS UNDER 7 +107

The White Sox have scored a mere 3 runs in their last 4 and are now up against one of the hottest starters in the MLB. Teams score an average of 2.4 runs against the Pirates since May when Gerrit Cole starts. On the other hand he doesn't get much run support either (3.1 runs/game since then). Therefore 5 of his last 8 starts have gone under with 3 pushes.

Jeff Samardzija is up for the struggling White Sox. He has some disastrous road stats (5.71 ERA, 1.48 WHIP), but he tends to do better at US Cellular Field (3.57 ERA, 1.10 WHIP). Opposed to Cole who hasn't seen much of the White Sox lineup over his career, Samardzija knows ceveral Buccos very well. McCutchen has owned him (.414 AVG, 1.100 OPS in 29 ABs), but most of the other Pirates haven't done well against him (they combine for a .196 AVG). Pirates bats have been rather silent on the road compared to their home games. And the Over/Under is 2-7 when Samardzija starts versus the Buccos (1.6 - 2.7 average score).

The scheduled HPU is Dan Bellino. The Over/Under is 4-12 since July '13 when the home team is a dog.
When the home team is a dog, has lost at least 5 straight and the opposing team has won at least 5 straight, the Over/Under is 5-21 (3 Pushes) since August 2005 and even 1-13 since 2010 (average score 2.3 - 3.4).
Looks like the wind is blowing out to right heavily, but this isn't too much a factor for me here. Samardzija had troubles to keep the ball on the ground thusfar, but has allowed only 0.76 HR/9 at home (opposed to 1.38 HR/9 on the road), while Cole has an above 50% GB-rate and has allowed less than 0.50 HR/9 this season.

Now there is the POSEY we all know and follow ( you thought I was going to say Love) LOL. BOL, back at it.

[44 Mag]

Thanks!

6/19

PIT/CHS UNDER 7 +107

The White Sox have scored a mere 3 runs in their last 4 and are now up against one of the hottest starters in the MLB. Teams score an average of 2.4 runs against the Pirates since May when Gerrit Cole starts. On the other hand he doesn't get much run support either (3.1 runs/game since then). Therefore 5 of his last 8 starts have gone under with 3 pushes.

Jeff Samardzija is up for the struggling White Sox. He has some disastrous road stats (5.71 ERA, 1.48 WHIP), but he tends to do better at US Cellular Field (3.57 ERA, 1.10 WHIP). Opposed to Cole who hasn't seen much of the White Sox lineup over his career, Samardzija knows ceveral Buccos very well. McCutchen has owned him (.414 AVG, 1.100 OPS in 29 ABs), but most of the other Pirates haven't done well against him (they combine for a .196 AVG). Pirates bats have been rather silent on the road compared to their home games. And the Over/Under is 2-7 when Samardzija starts versus the Buccos (1.6 - 2.7 average score).

The scheduled HPU is Dan Bellino. The Over/Under is 4-12 since July '13 when the home team is a dog.
When the home team is a dog, has lost at least 5 straight and the opposing team has won at least 5 straight, the Over/Under is 5-21 (3 Pushes) since August 2005 and even 1-13 since 2010 (average score 2.3 - 3.4).
Looks like the wind is blowing out to right heavily, but this isn't too much a factor for me here. Samardzija had troubles to keep the ball on the ground thusfar, but has allowed only 0.76 HR/9 at home (opposed to 1.38 HR/9 on the road), while Cole has an above 50% GB-rate and has allowed less than 0.50 HR/9 this season.

I was leaning under 7.5 for that very same reason you described, run support. I looked up his game logs, most of them are right on 7, win or lose. He don't lose often LOL.

[posey]

Thanks, Mag. Yes, Gerrit Cole has been a beast thusfar. Top notch performances one after another, he allowed 3 runs only 2 times in 12 starts (never more than 3!), walked 3 batters only 1 time in 12 starts, had less than 6 Ks only 1 time in 12 starts and 10 of his 12 starts were QS. Really doing well this guy, so it's really no surprise that this guy has the 2nd best ERA in the MLB.

And yeah, I may be really 'back', lol. It seems like I don't like anything else today...

[mrlif1]

good call on under posey. thanks.

[Alex Vaile]

Nice win buddy. I tailed the under and also took Pirates. Hope you get it turned around. Been bit of a struggle for me last few weeks too. Best of luck!

[posey]

Thanks, you two!

You'll turn it around Alex. You're doing nothing wrong.

[posey]

6/19

PIT/CHS UNDER 7 +107
3-2, W, +1.07 u

Record: 71-70, +9.04 u.

[posey]

Hm, looking at Pinnie's current card I don't like any single play today thusfar. Maybe there comes something up with TT or FF.

[44 Mag]

Hm, looking at Pinnie's current card I don't like any single play today thusfar. Maybe there comes something up with TT or FF.

Brother, I am also awaiting the TT's. Now, look at these for me/us: Minn game over 8: Pitt to win: Oakland to win or over 7: Cleveland over 7.5. If you have time. Looking for the most solid play. So far to me it would be over in Minny.

[MikeyD323]

Record: 71-70, +9.04 u.

You see Posey?!?! I hope my words had some motivation for you. That's how you cap brotha! GJ. Little by little. Better to have one big a day than 5 small a day. Keep it up and thanks for the winner LN.

[44 Mag]

You see Posey?!?! I hope my words had some motivation for you. That's how you cap brotha! GJ. Little by little. Better to have one big a day than 5 small a day. Keep it up and thanks for the winner LN.

LOL. five folks told him the same thing. BUT, they did follow your lead.

[posey]

Brother, I am also awaiting the TT's. Now, look at these for me/us: Minn game over 8: Pitt to win: Oakland to win or over 7: Cleveland over 7.5. If you have time. Looking for the most solid play. So far to me it would be over in Minny.

- CHC/MIN: MIN has scored only 2.4 runs/game since June 6 and if you take out the 7-11 loss against the Rangers they have failed to score more than 4 in any of those. Cubs are somehow 'hit or miss' regarding their offense. Having scored 6.0 on average since June 10, this stat is mostly so high because they scored 17 against CLE and 12 against DET. PERSONALLY I wouldn't pick anything here.

- LAA/OAK: I strongly believe in OAK winning because Gray is a stud and he has done well against LAA. Shoemaker is not doing too well this season for LAA and had some problems against OAK. Nonetheless (on paper and per record) LAA is the better team and OAK can't be trusted. Over 7 possible, but really no clue. Could be a low scorer or a rampage, at least I don't expect a common score like 4-3 in this one.

- TBR/CLE: Don't like that over either to be honest. CLE is as hit and miss regarding offense as CHC and Karns has done much better than I ever had expected him to be able to. Additionally Carrasco has very nice sabermetrics and K-numbers and IMO it's only a matter of time before his ERA starts to drop below 4.00.

Really don't wanna talk you out of anything here, but I don't trust any of them besides Sonny Gray.


BTW I think I have found something I like. Coming back to it after further research.

[44 Mag]

Thanks for your input and time.

[posey]

No problem.

6/19
SD Padres @ ARI Dbacks
SD Padres FF -104

The Padres had some trouble lately which resulted in firing their long time manager Bud Black. After losing 8 of the last 11 in sometimes embarassing fashion, they won 3-1 at Oakland last night on the back of a strong performance from Ian Kennedy. I think this could very well be a turning point for them, as they had given up multiple runs in lots of their games before. With James Shields they have another starter on the mound today who is pitching a good season. He’s the only qualified starter in baseball who has still no loss. He is averaging a career high 28.5 K% and his stats look more than solid besides his career high HR/9 of 1.64. Yes, he had some troubles on the road and has worse road stats than home stats. But he gets lots of run support and the HR against the Dodgers in his last start was the only HR in his last 4 starts. He has faced the Dbacks at Chase Field earlier this season and he didn’t fare well there, as he gave up 5 ER on 4 HR in 6 IP. But there seems to be some promise, because Shields seems to be someone who likes to rebound from outings like this one (see below). The Padres hitting hasn’t done well most times of the season, especially guys like Kemp or Middlebrooks, but Justin Upton, Derek Norris, Yonder Alonso have been hitting rather well (Wil Myers too, but he will be out). Kemp’s homerun yesterday could be a boost to his confidence. And the Padres will try to respond to the shutout they suffered against De La Rosa and the Dbacks earlier this season. If the Padres want to have the slightest shot at getting to the playoffs they have to win games like this. The next 9 games can and will be critical. After the 3-game series at Arizona they will visit the Giants for 3 and then host the Dbacks again for another 3. If all goes well they could be at .500 after those games. So lots of division baseball is upcoming for the Padres and more important, it’s against direct opponents. It could be the make-or-break-time for them. By the way, the Padres away-record (17-17) is better than their home-record (16-19).

The Dbacks have a nearly similar record like the Padres and a negative home-record, too. Despite a 7-6 record over their last 13, the Dbacks offense showed some problems. They averaged only 3.3 runs per game since then (4.3 in their previous games). I think I don’t have to tell much about the Dbacks lineup. Its main cornerstones are Goldschmidt, Tomas and Pollock. Lamb has shown some promise, too, but he has played in too few games to tell something reliable. Nonetheless the main part of the Dbacks success is Goldschmidt. The Dbacks are 17-25 this season when he has 1 hit or less, but 15-9 when he has 2 hits or more. Shields is capable of limiting the 1st Baseman’s damage and this could spell trouble for the Snakes. Starting for the Dbacks will be De La Rosa, who has faced the Padres 3 times over his career. His teams won all 3 games while Rubby had a QS in every start. But I don't put too much stock in any of those. The first win (1-0) came in 2011 when he was with the Dodgers, the Padres being far worse than now and of the Padres from back then only Will Venable is still with them. The 2nd win was a 8-4 at San Diego in 2015, he gave up 6 H and 3 ER in 6 IP. And the last one was a 11-0 home win against SDP on May 7 in which he went 7 innings, allowing only 3 H and 2 BB with 7 K. But the score after the first was already 4-0 for ARI, after 3 it was 6-0 for ARI and I wouldn't be surprised if the Padres already had lost passion for that match and didn't take it too serious anymore. I hope I don’t put a gloss on that. De La Rosa had already lots of trouble this season. He has good K and BB numbers, but his HR/9 looks as bad as his bad ERA of 5+, which shows no difference when pitching on the road or at Chase Field. De La Rosa pitched very good against the Giants in his last outing, nearly going the full distance, but over his career it has meant trouble for his next game, when he pitched so many innings (see below).

All in all I see Value in the FF because of Shields here. The Padres have to start winning and they have some talent. The Dbacks are too unexperienced and their rotation is too weak and IMO their record will get worse over the next few weeks. The Padres and De La Rosa have a strong record this season when being home favs, but they faced some really bad pitchers in those games and Shields likes being a road dog. The chance on cashback makes the bet better, too.

Some facts on the starters who fit well to my FF bet:
In Shields' starts his teams are 14-3 (average score 5.5-3.6) on the road since 2013, when the opponents team scored at least 5 runs in Shield's previous matchup against them.
James Shields' teams are 10-3 since 2014 as road dogs in the regular season (only losing to Verlander, Buchholz and Kershaw).
Rubby De La Rosa's teams have allowed 3.8 runs in his starts since 2013 when he pitched 6 innings or less in his previous start, but they allowed 5.5 runs in his starts when he pitched 7 innings or more in his previous start. He has a 4.50 ERA in the first scenario, but a 5.46 ERA in the second.
Rubby De La Rosa has tossed in 6 quality starts in 13 starts since joining the Dbacks, but he has failed to repeat a QS in two consecutive outings since April. He failed to make a QS in his last three home starts and he has an ERA of 7.50 in those.

[terrortwylight]

Great work on these write ups