Posey's Pick Of The Day

[RavensFan2k3]

It's so typical. Yankees bats silent against Gio all game until he gets to 90+ pitches. Instead of getting him out Matt Williams leaves him in and now it's 2-2. Thanks.

Game over

[RavensFan2k3]

Ah, there it is. 2-3.
This bet will be lost, too.

Goodluck the rest of the night tho bro

[posey]

4-4. Not over yet. Didn't see this one coming.


But this proves my "this season the bullpens are as bad as it can get"-theory.

[LEOLEO]

"DONE WITH BETTING THE FAVS "

smh

seriously,
if u like someting at -103 ur gonna fade now ?!

[posey]

No bet or RL or -1 as ling as they've +odds. I will stay straight on that and not bet -103. My record on +odds is better than the one on -odds. This means somerhing I think.

[posey]

Marlins +136, 0.73 u, L, -0.73 u.

Nationals +127, 0.79 u, W, +1.00 u.

Rockies +115, 0.87 u, L, -0.87 u.

Orioles -1 +131, 0.76 u, W, +1.00 u.

Cubs -1 +121, 0.83 u, W, +1.00 u.

Indians -1.5 +137, 0.73 u, L, -0.73 u.

Padres -1 +120, 0.84 u, L, -0.84 u.

Giants +138, 0.73 u, W, +1.00 u.

Dodgers -1.5 +124, 0.81 u, L, -0.81 u.

Yesterday: 4-5, +0.02 u.
Record: 51-47, +10.09 u.

What a massive comeback...

[posey]

6/11

Padres +104, 0.96 u
Rockies +124, 0.81 u
Cubs -1.5, +148, 0.68 u

[Card Complete]

[mitch51]

No bet or RL or -1 as ling as they've +odds. I will stay straight on that and not bet -103. My record on +odds is better than the one on -odds. This means somerhing I think.

Absolutely correct. Same here. If your record is worse with faves than it is with dogs, WTF take them? The dogs aren't doing well but to bet faves compounds the problem. Just my opinion.

[posey]

Absolutely correct. Same here. If your record is worse with faves than it is with dogs, WTF take them? The dogs aren't doing well but to bet faves compounds the problem. Just my opinion.

Yap, I agree by 110%.

Added one more play (Rockies), maybe more to come.

EDIT: Card complete, consisting of 3 plays.

[posey]

Okay, some words on my favorite play today: Cubs -1.5.
This bet goes mostly against Lorenzen. He sits at an 3.29 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 1-1 W-L. BUT: He's issued nearly as many walks as strikeouts (5.40 K/9, 5.17 BB/9, 14.3 K%, 13.7 BB% >> 0.6 K/BB%) and he had a ton of luck (ridiculous BABIP, very low at .229 and very high LOB% at 87.7%). He's giving up lots of homers (1.41 HR/9, 17.1 HR/FB%). Reds offense is worse on the road (3.7 runs/game) than at home (4.6 runs/game) and they are overall a bad road team (10-18 overall, 2-9 last 11 road games). Reds are only 5-10 against teams with a winning record and 14-25 against teams with a record of better than .400.
Pitching edge for Cubs here with Wada (good sabers besides giving up too many homers). Cubs lineup slightly better than Reds lineup (and Reds with some injuries, too). Cubs with a mixed home record (12-11) and with a bad against teams with a losing record (9-12), but only 6 of them have been away games.
Reds have won 4 straight, but last 3 were against Phillies and all of them at home.
Only thing which bothers me is good chance for a thunderstorm, but well...

[twestacott]

Okay, some words on my favorite play today: Cubs -1.5.
This bet goes mostly against Lorenzen. He sits at an 3.29 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 1-1 W-L. BUT: He's issued nearly as many walks as strikeouts (5.40 K/9, 5.17 BB/9, 14.3 K%, 13.7 BB% >> 0.6 K/BB%) and he had a ton of luck (ridiculous BABIP, very low at .229 and very high LOB% at 87.7%). He's giving up lots of homers (1.41 HR/9, 17.1 HR/FB%). Reds offense is worse on the road (3.7 runs/game) than at home (4.6 runs/game) and they are overall a bad road team (10-18 overall, 2-9 last 11 road games). Reds are only 5-10 against teams with a winning record and 14-25 against teams with a record of better than .400.
Pitching edge for Cubs here with Wada (good sabers besides giving up too many homers). Cubs lineup slightly better than Reds lineup (and Reds with some injuries, too). Cubs with a mixed home record (12-11) and with a bad against teams with a losing record (9-12), but only 6 of them have been away games.
Reds have won 4 straight, but last 3 were against Phillies and all of them at home.
Only thing which bothers me is good chance for a thunderstorm, but well...

Nice write up here Posey. Not sure about this game but I am on SD and Colorado with you. Also checking out the Giants and is it just me or does it seem like the books are either REALLY overvaluing Scott Kazmir or REALLY showing a lack of respect for Texas? I mean come on Oakland a -160 against anyone is a bit of a joke with that bullpen unless its Sonny Gray against some minor league scrub

[posey]

I don't like Giants (although I hope they win from a fan's point of view). Lincecum will have his numbers from last year sooner or later. He's already gone downwards over the last 3 (giving up 4 ER in each of his last 3 starts). I don't trust this guy. I stay away from this game only because of him.

Regarding Texas, I gonna quote what I have written in Mag's thread first:

I really would like to go with Texas, too. Odds are so good. But somehow I am afraid of pulling the trigger. It's never a good sign for a pitcher when his stats look like this after 2 starts: 7.4 K%, 13.0 BB%, .116 BABIP, 100% LOB. It happens very often that guys with stats like this get knocked around rather sooner than later. Chi Chi's ERA looks good, but he was so lucky it seems unrepeatable for too long.

Looking at Chi Chi's (albeit small sample) sabermetrics he IS a minor league scrub who was more than lucky in 2 starts. You know, he has a very, very low K% (had in minors a low one, too), a very high BB% (fairly high at AAA, too), his BABIP is a joke (positive for him, the average BABIP is about .300), his LOB% too (the average LOB% is about 70%). Can't trust him.

Next to that, the Rangers lineup more or less consists of those 3 (4) guys: Fielder, Choo, Moreland (DeShields, but I don't trust him, very high BABIP). They are hitting lefthanded and Kazmir is a LHP. Yes, I know, Kazmir is somehow better against RHB than against LHB, but Fielder is hitting worse against LHP than against RHP, Choo is more or less an automatic out against LHP (the only 'damage' he can do against LHP is walks, he hits only .197 against them) and Moreland was kinda lucky (high BABIP thusfar) and is a career .239 hitter against LHP. Rangers are 31-28 overall, but only 9-11 against LHP and 6-14 against Kazmir.

Bullpen is no big factor for me here, As bullpen IS bad, but Rangers pen isn't much better. Simply a no-bet for me here. (Small hint: I have As winning at slightly over 0.600 in my small model, so it supports the odds of the bookmakers).

But what do I know - maybe the Rangers smash Kazmir.

[44 Mag]

Nice write up here Posey. Not sure about this game but I am on SD and Colorado with you. Also checking out the Giants and is it just me or does it seem like the books are either REALLY overvaluing Scott Kazmir or REALLY showing a lack of respect for Texas? I mean come on Oakland a -160 against anyone is a bit of a joke with that bullpen unless its Sonny Gray against some minor league scrub

Gray lost the other day??? To these same Rangers ???

[posey]

Yap, against one of the luckiest pitcher's in baseball this season: Nick Martinez.

[posey]

Man, are those Umpires at Atlanta dumb or blind? How are they ALL not able to see that this was a foul ball because he hit it twice and not a hit?


UNBELIEVABLE. 1-4 and game decided because of 4 blind umpires.

Run-Support:
- Andrew Cashner 2.67 = lowest in NL and 4th lowest in MLB
- James Shields 5.62 = highest in NL and 5th highest in MLB

[twestacott]

I don't like Giants (although I hope they win from a fan's point of view). Lincecum will have his numbers from last year sooner or later. He's already gone downwards over the last 3 (giving up 4 ER in each of his last 3 starts). I don't trust this guy. I stay away from this game only because of him.

Regarding Texas, I gonna quote what I have written in Mag's thread first:Looking at Chi Chi's (albeit small sample) sabermetrics he IS a minor league scrub who was more than lucky in 2 starts. You know, he has a very, very low K% (had in minors a low one, too), a very high BB% (fairly high at AAA, too), his BABIP is a joke (positive for him, the average BABIP is about .300), his LOB% too (the average LOB% is about 70%). Can't trust him.

Next to that, the Rangers lineup more or less consists of those 3 (4) guys: Fielder, Choo, Moreland (DeShields, but I don't trust him, very high BABIP). They are hitting lefthanded and Kazmir is a LHP. Yes, I know, Kazmir is somehow better against RHB than against LHB, but Fielder is hitting worse against LHP than against RHP, Choo is more or less an automatic out against LHP (the only 'damage' he can do against LHP is walks, he hits only .197 against them) and Moreland was kinda lucky (high BABIP thusfar) and is a career .239 hitter against LHP. Rangers are 31-28 overall, but only 9-11 against LHP and 6-14 against Kazmir.

Bullpen is no big factor for me here, As bullpen IS bad, but Rangers pen isn't much better. Simply a no-bet for me here. (Small hint: I have As winning at slightly over 0.600 in my small model, so it supports the odds of the bookmakers).

But what do I know - maybe the Rangers smash Kazmir.

Nice catch.... glad I listened to you and laid off cause kid is in trouble already in bottom of 1st

[posey]

Only a matter of time that he gets rocked. Maybe not today as he already has been lucky again but this won't keep up forever.

[44 Mag]

Only a matter of time that he gets rocked. Maybe not today as he already has been lucky again but this won't keep up forever.

Well, it is only 1-0 ??? Texas can't hit today. You did nail Kazmir in my thread, good job.

[posey]

OAK with 6 hits and 2 BB in 5 innings and only 1 run. Chi Chi will suffer sooner or later.

Yeah, Kazmir is a better version of Lincecum throwing lefthanded lol. Either superb or shaky as it gets.

[44 Mag]

OAK with 6 hits and 2 BB in 5 innings and only 1 run. Chi Chi will suffer sooner or later.

Yeah, Kazmir is a better version of Lincecum throwing lefthanded lol. Either superb or shaky as it gets.

You can add Bucholtz to that list: " Blow out or Shut out" LOL.

[posey]

You mean Shake Buchholz?

[44 Mag]

You mean Shake Buchholz?

[azsportswin]

[QUOTE=posey;24135449]I don't like Giants (although I hope they win from a fan's point of view). Lincecum will have his numbers from last year sooner or later. He's already gone downwards over the last 3 (giving up 4 ER in each of his last 3 starts). I don't trust this guy. I stay away from this game only because of him.

Hey Posey...just saw this post on ESPN "Tim Lincecum 6-0, 1.87 ERA, 63 K vs #Mets over last 8 starts. Only others to do that? Sandy Koufax and Juan Marichal". Do you put much stock into these kind of stats, or do you consider them irrelevant?

[posey]

I am late, sorry. But we got a different timezone here in GER and I was sleeping. I consider such things, yes, but don't give them much weight. Will explain why later.

[posey]

6/11

Padres +104, 0.96 u, W, +1.00 u
Rockies +124, 0.81 u, L, -1.00 u
Cubs -1.5, +148, 0.68 u, W, +1.00 u

Yesterday: 2-1, +1.00 u.
Record: 53-48, +11.08 u.

[FlyinAir]

Just another day at the office posey

[posey]

Just another day at the office posey

Gonna come up with my plays in the next few minutes.

[posey]

6/12

Cubs -1 +149, 0.67 u to win 1.00 u

Pirates -1.5 +126, 0.80 u to win 1.00 u

Indians ML +120, 0.84 u to win 1.00 u

Mets -1 +136, 0.74 u to win 1.00 u

Marlins -1 +118, 0.85 u to win 1.00 u

Rangers -1 +114, 0.88 u to win 1.00 u

Brewers -1 +138, 0.73 u to win 1.00 u

Cardinals -1 +140, 0.72 u to win 1.00 u

Rays -1 +121, 0.83 u to win 1.00 u




If you have any thoughts or questions on my picks, feel free to comment or ask. I like Dodgers as well, but to get +odds I would have to bet Dodgers -2 and THAT is too much for me.


EDIT: Card complete.

[posey]

Damn, many lines moving along what I have thought on the game or where I saw value, this means 99.9% no play on Dodgers and betting on Blue Jays -1 becomes more unlikely, too.


EDIT:
Regarding BvP-stats. As I said, I take note of them, but usually I don't put too much weight on them.

I want to give you an example on why I don't put much stock in them. These are the BvP-stats of the Reds/Cubs game:

CUETO VERSUS	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jorge Soler -x R	2	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	.500	.667	1.000	1.667
Arismendy Alcantara -x S	3	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	.333	.333	1.333	1.667
Chris Coghlan L	14	4	1	0	1	4	1	2	0	0	.286	.412	.571	.983
Matt Szczur -x R	3	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	.333	.600	.333	.933
Dexter Fowler S	9	3	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	.333	.400	.333	.733
Starlin Castro R	36	9	1	1	0	1	3	4	0	0	.250	.325	.333	.658
David Ross R	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	.250	.400	.250	.650
Anthony Rizzo L	18	2	1	0	1	1	0	5	0	0	.111	.111	.333	.444
Miguel Montero L	16	2	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	.125	.176	.125	.301
Chris Denorfia R	7	1	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	.143	.143	.143	.286
Jonathan Herrera S	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Mike Baxter L	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Javier Baez -x R	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
HAMMEL VERSUS	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jay Bruce L	7	2	0	0	1	4	0	3	0	0	.286	.286	.714	1.000
Brandon Phillips R	11	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	.364	.364	.455	.818
Marlon Byrd -x R	12	4	1	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	.333	.385	.417	.801
Joey Votto L	12	2	1	0	1	2	2	3	0	0	.167	.286	.500	.786
Skip Schumaker L	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	.333	.400	.333	.733
Brennan Boesch L	4	1	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	.250	.400	.250	.650
Brayan Pena S	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Todd Frazier R	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000

Here it is: sample size. As you can see, besides Starlin Castro no hitter has seen either pitcher for more than 20 ABs. Sample size too small. That's it. I don't take a sample size of below 20 ABs seriously and if the sample size is spread out over some years then it's even more meaningless IMO.

I mean, what do you want to read out of that? A normally more than solid hitter may be in a funk and not be able to hit a medicine ball with his bat at the moment and now he faces a certain pitcher, who is normally bad. Because the hitter is in a funk, the hitter can't hit hit. Does this mean he can't hit him when he sees him the next time out? Same goes vice versa regarding pitchers who are hot or cold. Other guys have seen pitchers quite often, but it has been 2 or 3 years ago.

Then the next thing is that not only performance fluctuates a lot, but also lineups do. Many guys play for different teams in their career, but not only that, they bat and pitch in different environments regarding stadiums (pitching against Goldschmidt in AT&T is something different than pitching to him in Chase Field), they bat and pitch in different weather, they bat in different lineup spots and pitchers get to guys in different lineup spots thereof (it's something different to pitch to a guy who is in the second spot when Miggy Cabrera comes up next or when you pitch to the same guy when he is batting in the 8th spot for a NL team and next up is the opposing SP). A good example, because I saw him yesterday, may be Cameron Maybin. He was surrounded by weak hitters for years when playing for the Padres. Now he is in the 2nd spot with Freddie Freeman in the 3rd spot and now Maybin has career numbers in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS.

And there are much more things which can't make you draw final conclusions.

But, and that's important, IF the sample size is big enough, then you can draw conclusions of course! That's the other side. I remember about reading before yesterday's game of the Red Sox at the Os that Dustin Pedroia being a .400-something hitter off Chen . And then we saw a Pedroia yesterday, who got two hits in 3 ABs off Chen again.

But most times the sample size is too small to make a real statement IMO. Of course I look at the BvP-stats, but current (regarding the season as a whole and the recent games) are much more important.

[posey]

Card complete for today. Hm, my initial thought of betting only on +odds looked fine at first. But I am thinking about reversing that. There have been plays which I would have won taking the ML on a -125 bet instead the -1 RL or -1.5 RL. I think I will change up things tomorrow, shouldn't make too big of a difference. Would have been able to play the Jays ML or several other MLs at slightly -odds instead of taking a ton of -1 games.

[azsportswin]

Not many people would take the time & effort you did in post#204 answering my question.....you're a class act Posey! Your explanation and analysis makes a ton of sense.....thank you very much!

[posey]

No problem! Glad I could help.

[posey]

6/12

Cubs -1 +149, 0.67 u to win 1.00 u, L, -0.67 u.

Pirates -1.5 +126, 0.80 u to win 1.00 u, L, -0.80 u.

Indians ML +120, 0.84 u to win 1.00 u, L, -0.84 u.

Mets -1 +136, 0.74 u to win 1.00 u, W, +1.00 u.

Marlins -1 +118, 0.85 u to win 1.00 u, W, +1.00 u.

Rangers -1 +114, 0.88 u to win 1.00 u, W, +1.00 u.

Brewers -1 +138, 0.73 u to win 1.00 u, W, +1.00 u.

Cardinals -1 +140, 0.72 u to win 1.00 u, W, +1.00 u.

Rays -1 +121, 0.83 u to win 1.00 u, W, +1.00 u.

Yesterday: 6-3, +3.69 u.
Record: 59-51, +14.77 u.

[VegasPlayer]

Hit a RR with the last 4 - Thanks

[posey]

Fantastic, congrats!

That's some cash for sure.