Thanks, another bet, this will be it for today. 
I don’t have to write as much as I did for my previous pick, simply because it comes down to three major factors:
- Marlins starter Dan Haren
- Marlins bullpen
- Reds lineup
Dan Haren is pitching a rather good season on paper with a 3.22 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. But his sabermetrics show that he has been really lucky (.226 BABIP, league average .300; 83.6 LOB%, league average 70.0 and he never had a LOB% of more than 71.5 since 2011). His road stats look worse than his home stats, his road ERA is nearly 2 runs higher (2.32 vs. 4.23) and he gives up more HRs on the road, too (1.05 vs. 1.88). Dan Haren has always been a decent mid rotation starter over his career, but this season – as I said – he was rather lucky. In his last outing, a 1-4 loss against the Rockis, he gave up only 3 H and 2 BB, but was tagged for 3 ER because of 2 HR. Since 2013 he has pitched 2 times at the Great American Ballpark. The results were 0-15 and 6-2. But in the 6-2 win the Reds were without Joey Votto, who has good numbers against Haren over his career.
The Marlins bullpen has been solid overall, but with some problems lately. Over the last 14 days they walked 4.86 hitters per 9 Innings and allowed 1.46 HR/9. And while they have a 3.29 ERA, .229 BAA, .293 OBP and .337 SLG at home, their road stats look worse with a 4.84 ERA, .273 BAA, .338 OBP and .446 SLG. So similar to Haren, the Marlins bullpen seems to profit from pitching in the rather spacious Marlins Park. But as we all know, Great American Ballpark is different and much more hitter-friendly.
The Reds offense has improved, at least at home. Over the last 14 days they have hit the 3rd most HRs (20), have the 4th highest ISO (.191) and the most stolen bases (12) in the MLB. Todd Frazier (6 HR, .446 ISO, .375 AVG, .397 OBP, .821 SLG), Joey Votto (4 HR, .372 ISO, .349 AVG, .462 OBP, .721 SLG) and Jay Bruce (3 HR, .265 ISO, .265 AVG, .333 OBP, .531 SLG) have been tearing it up lately. Cozart has done very well, too, but he’ll be out. Brandon Phillips had big problems over the last few weeks, but like Votto he has good career numbers against Haren. Billy Hamilton has been put into the lower part of the lineup because he didn’t hit much, but he has contributed to the Reds offense with 8 stolen bases in his last 10 games, although he only had 8 hits and 3 walks. Current Marlins starting catcher Realmuto has thrown out only 5 of 21 baserunners on stolen base-attempts. So watch Hamilton steal another one if he gets on base.
I would’ve expected the Reds TT at 4 and not 3.5. Sabermetrics point to a regression of Dan Haren, the Marlins Bullpen isn’t elite and the Reds offense has been good over the last few games. The Reds have scored 4.6 runs on average at home in 2014, when the opponent’s starter was a RHP like Haren. In only 7 of those 23 games they didn’t score at least 4. And looking at the starters which their opponents sent to the mound, this isn’t too surprising. They failed to score at least 4 only against Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Jake Arrieta, Tyson Ross and AJ Burnett. The only 2 starters who kept the Reds in check by surprise were Matt Garza and Ryan Vogelsong. The Reds have trouble scoring on the road, but they’ve got a strong home offense. Yesterday’s match was postponed, which is good. It gives the Reds a little rest. The Marlins come of no rest.
6/19
MIA Marlins @ CIN Reds
CIN Reds TT Over 3.5 -119
MIA Marlins @ CIN Reds
CIN Reds TT Over 3.5 -119
I don’t have to write as much as I did for my previous pick, simply because it comes down to three major factors:
- Marlins starter Dan Haren
- Marlins bullpen
- Reds lineup
Dan Haren is pitching a rather good season on paper with a 3.22 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. But his sabermetrics show that he has been really lucky (.226 BABIP, league average .300; 83.6 LOB%, league average 70.0 and he never had a LOB% of more than 71.5 since 2011). His road stats look worse than his home stats, his road ERA is nearly 2 runs higher (2.32 vs. 4.23) and he gives up more HRs on the road, too (1.05 vs. 1.88). Dan Haren has always been a decent mid rotation starter over his career, but this season – as I said – he was rather lucky. In his last outing, a 1-4 loss against the Rockis, he gave up only 3 H and 2 BB, but was tagged for 3 ER because of 2 HR. Since 2013 he has pitched 2 times at the Great American Ballpark. The results were 0-15 and 6-2. But in the 6-2 win the Reds were without Joey Votto, who has good numbers against Haren over his career.
The Marlins bullpen has been solid overall, but with some problems lately. Over the last 14 days they walked 4.86 hitters per 9 Innings and allowed 1.46 HR/9. And while they have a 3.29 ERA, .229 BAA, .293 OBP and .337 SLG at home, their road stats look worse with a 4.84 ERA, .273 BAA, .338 OBP and .446 SLG. So similar to Haren, the Marlins bullpen seems to profit from pitching in the rather spacious Marlins Park. But as we all know, Great American Ballpark is different and much more hitter-friendly.
The Reds offense has improved, at least at home. Over the last 14 days they have hit the 3rd most HRs (20), have the 4th highest ISO (.191) and the most stolen bases (12) in the MLB. Todd Frazier (6 HR, .446 ISO, .375 AVG, .397 OBP, .821 SLG), Joey Votto (4 HR, .372 ISO, .349 AVG, .462 OBP, .721 SLG) and Jay Bruce (3 HR, .265 ISO, .265 AVG, .333 OBP, .531 SLG) have been tearing it up lately. Cozart has done very well, too, but he’ll be out. Brandon Phillips had big problems over the last few weeks, but like Votto he has good career numbers against Haren. Billy Hamilton has been put into the lower part of the lineup because he didn’t hit much, but he has contributed to the Reds offense with 8 stolen bases in his last 10 games, although he only had 8 hits and 3 walks. Current Marlins starting catcher Realmuto has thrown out only 5 of 21 baserunners on stolen base-attempts. So watch Hamilton steal another one if he gets on base.
I would’ve expected the Reds TT at 4 and not 3.5. Sabermetrics point to a regression of Dan Haren, the Marlins Bullpen isn’t elite and the Reds offense has been good over the last few games. The Reds have scored 4.6 runs on average at home in 2014, when the opponent’s starter was a RHP like Haren. In only 7 of those 23 games they didn’t score at least 4. And looking at the starters which their opponents sent to the mound, this isn’t too surprising. They failed to score at least 4 only against Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Jake Arrieta, Tyson Ross and AJ Burnett. The only 2 starters who kept the Reds in check by surprise were Matt Garza and Ryan Vogelsong. The Reds have trouble scoring on the road, but they’ve got a strong home offense. Yesterday’s match was postponed, which is good. It gives the Reds a little rest. The Marlins come of no rest.
