Posey's Pick Of The Day

[posey]

And of course there's no guarantee when you are looking at the line-movement, but the over 8.5 was at +105 at Pinnacle 12 hours ago, I got it at -105 a few hours later and right now it's down to -123. Wind is also blowing out heavily to center which is a problem for pitchers who allow some homers.


EDIT: And down to -132...

[posey]

PHI Phillies (Correia) @ NY Yankees (Pineda)
PHI Phillies TT Under 3 -101

I don't expect the Phillies to score again so well against a better pitcher, because...
- Phillies have scored a mere 1.8 runs/game on avg. in their last 8 road games, have dropped 12 straight on the road and have the overall worst road offense with 2.74 runs/game on avg.
- Phillies are 1-10 in their last 11 interleague road games, scoring 2.6 runs/game on avg.
- Phillies are 3-8 in the first game of a road-series this season, scoring 2.4 runs/game on avg.
- Pineda is very good at home, 5-1, 2.36 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 27.6 K-BB%, 2.51 FIP, 2.28 xFIP
- Pineda had only one bad home-start (vs Texas, 6.0 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 4 ER, 2 HR), in his other starts he has a combined ERA of even only 1.84
- Road teams score only 2.5 runs/game on avg. against the Yankees when Pineda starts

[No coincidences]

guess one of us will look like a genius

It won't be you.

It will never be you.

[posey]

Damn, shouldn't have taken another bet. First one easy winner, second one totally off and loser.

06/22
CHI White Sox (Danks) @ MIN Twins (Milone)
Over 8.5 -105
2-13, W, +0.95 u.

PHI Phillies (Correia) @ NY Yankees (Pineda)
PHI Phillies TT Under 3 -101
11-8, L, -1.00 u.

Yesterday: 1-1, -0.05 u.

Record: 74-73, +8.64 u.

[posey]

6/23
KC Royals (Guthrie) @ SEA Mariners (Montgomery)
Under 7 +107

Guthrie owns several Mariners (Cano, Jackson, Cruz combine for .232 and 4 HR in 99 AB) and he has an ERA of 2.63 in his last 7 starts when you take out the unbelievably bad outing which he had at New York against the Yanks (Yanks game was an over, the rest was 0 over, 5 under and 2 push). Royals pen is one of the best, if not the best in the MLB.
On the other side, the Royals offense has scored a mere 2.7 runs/game since 4/23 when they were up against lefthanded starters (results were 3 over, 9 under, 2 push).
Overall the Mariners have scored a very low 2.5 runs/game since 5/27 and have scored only 2.9 runs/game against righthanded starters at Safeco Field this season (9 over, 21 under, 3 push).
Montgomery hasn't done too well in his 4 starts regarding sabermetrics, but besides the 4 ER he gave up to the Giants, he was doing well (1 over, 2 under at home).
Guthrie has bad stats when pitching against the Mariners or at Seattle, but their lineup is much different then in previous seasons.

[44 Mag]

Damn, shouldn't have taken another bet. First one easy winner, second one totally off and loser.Yesterday: 1-1, -0.05 u.

Record: 74-73, +8.64 u.

HENCE: Posey's PICK of the day. Just fooling with ya. LOL. I did the same stupid thing with that dumb parlay at the last minute.

[posey]

OAK Athletics (Chavez) @ TEX Rangers (Gonzalez)
OAK Athletics -1.5 +127

I continue to go against Chi Chi. He is 2-1 with a 0.90 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 4 starts thusfar, but all sabermetrics and advanced stats show that he is due to regression. It was true for Chris Young lately and it will be true for Chi Chi sooner or later, too. I hope it's sooner. Or better said, I hope it's tonight and I think it's tonight. His xFIP (5.05) and SIERA (5.52) are really, really bad. The As will see him for the 2nd time this season. He gave up only 1 run against them two weeks ago, but he was rather lucky to not be demolished, as the As left 9 on base and grounded into a double play. It's the first time for Chi Chi that he will pitch against a lineup which has seen him before. And he has thrown more than 100 pitches in all of his starts and it remains to be seen if he can handle such a heavy workload. He was not good in the minors and has outpitched his peripherals thusfar. This won't continue.
Jesse Chavez is 3-6 with a 2.75 ERA (as starter) in 11 starts this season. His bad record has been a product of rather bad run support. The 16-2 win against the Padres was only the 2nd time this season in which got more than 5 runs of support from the As offense. Jesse Chavez had only 1 start against the Rangers in his career which was a 12-1 at Arlington in April 2014. And he has been very good against several Rangers. Moreland, Martin, Andrus and Choo have hit .096 in 31 ABs against Chavez. The only regular Rangers hitter who has fared well against Chavez is Prince Fielder (.571 in 7 ABs). And his sabermetrics and advanced stats show that his ERA is way more a product of his performance compared to Chi Chi.
All in all both lineups have taken a different road over the last few games. Over the last 7 days the Rangers have hit for a .193 AVG, have produced a .255 OBP and .297 SLG, which gives them the lowest wRC+ of all teams (2.3 runs/game) over this time span. Besides the usual output of Fielder and a little bit from Adam Rosales the Rangers have been silent on offense. Andrus, Moreland, Alberto, Choo, Martin and Gallo have hit for a combined .170 AVG over the last 7 days. Surprisingly it was their starting pitching which kept the Rangers in games and not their offense. The Athletics have been different. Their wRC+ of 138 is the 7th best over the last 7 days. It's a product of an .304 AVG, a .360 OBP and a .483 SLG (6.2 runs/game) in 6 games. Reddick has been not doing well in the last few games, but Vogt, Burns, Lawrie, Zobrist and Butler have combined for a .400 AVG in the last 7 days.
The Athletics are 3-13 against lefthanded starters this season (3.1 runs/game), but 28-28 against righthanded starters (4.8 runs/game and 8-2 in their last 10 against righthanded starters).
Both pens had problems this season, but the As pen has been better as of late (3.57 ERA last 14 days), while the Rangers pen has been a mess (6.75 ERA last 14 days).
Besides their bad performance in 2015 the Athletics have won 6 of the 10 games against the Rangers this season (5.4-3.3 runs/game) and are 9-4 at Arlington since 2014 (5.8-2.7 runs/game). The Rangers are also 8-13 this season when they host a team with a losing record.
I expect a rampage.

[posey]

HENCE: Posey's PICK of the day. Just fooling with ya. LOL. I did the same stupid thing with that dumb parlay at the last minute.

Yeah lol, if there are 2 games or picks which I can't say this one or that one is better, then I will do both. Sadly I'll only know afterwards what would've been better.
But 2 picks a day still is kinda low.

[nickmo198]

I follow everyone of ur picks and believe your research is strong. But I swore after last time if u went against chi chi I wouldn't and it's just cause of this one question, you write in your columns you won't bet pitchers because they haven't faced batters enough but u continue to go against a guy who's pitched only a handful of games so why is chi chi different than anybody else to you?

[posey]

Sabermetrics. That's it. A difference of about 5 runs between ERA and SIERA/xFIP can't be kept up. You can look at past seasons. It's unsustainable. A difference of 1 run to 1.5 runs max. can be held up by some guys. But not 5. Never. Happened never in the past. Won't ever happen in the future. Gonna give you some numbers in a few minutes.

[44 Mag]

Sabermetrics. That's it. A difference of about 5 runs between ERA and SIERA/xFIP can't be kept up. You can look at past seasons. It's unsustainable. A difference of 1 run to 1.5 runs max. can be held up by some guys. But not 5. Never. Happened never in the past. Won't ever happen in the future. Gonna give you some numbers in a few minutes.

I think this is REALLY Bill James.

[posey]

It would be cool if I was him because then I thin I would have much more money.

[posey]

So, now I am at my laptop, so it's easier to write something than with my mobile. The thing is that past performance is more or less an indicator for future performance. But ERA (along other oldschool statistics) is influenced by way too many pitcher-independent things. I don't want to write a big article about sabers and how they are calculated. The internet is full with blogs and comments about that and in my experience it's rather true, that xFIP and especially SIERA beat the conventional stats by a wide, wide margin regarding the quality of a pitcher. It began with FIP, then came xFIP and SIERA is such a strong stat that everyone should look into it. If you ask LTProfits, he will confirm you that his very strong model takes sabers into account. And here comes why I love sabermetrics.

All in all we can say if a pitcher has an ERA which is way above his sabermetric numbers, he was rather unlucky, which means that he will get better raw numbers in the future. If a pitcher has an ERA which is way below his sabermetric numbers, he was rather lucky, which means that he will get worse raw numbers in the future. The first pitcher who came to my mind is Chris Young, now with the Royals. I said it time and time again over the last few days that he will get knocked around sooner or later because his sabers tell us that he was one of the biggest lucksters ever. And then came the Red Sox and boom he got crushed. It was the same thing with Tim Lincecum this season. Same story. I said it time and time again, that although his raw (oldschool) numbers were rather good at the beginning of the season, that he is still the same bad pitcher as in the previous seasons. Why? Because his ERA was much better than in the past few years, but his xFIP and SIERA were even worse (at least in parts). And what happened? From 4/10 to 5/20 he allowed 11 earned runs in in 8 starts (47.2 IP, so a 2.08 ERA). Then in his next six starts he got worse and worse, last time he lasted only 1.1 IP. So in his next 6 starts he allowed 21 earned runs (27.0 IP, so a 7.00 ERA). Was this a surprise? No. Why? Sabermetrics. You won't have luck forever. Your BABIP won't stay below .250 forever. Your LOB% will come down sooner or later. And talking about Chi Chi he owns a BABIP of .183 (unsustainable, league average is about .300) and a LOB% of 94.6% (league average is about 70-71%, so unsustainable, too).

But to keep things easier let's only look at SIERA and xFIP. Yes, there are some guys who outplay their peripherals, which means they are lucky over the course of a whole season (but HOW lucky? as lucky as Chi Chi?) or unlucky over the course of a whole season. More or less the sabers include the BABIP and LOB%, so we can forget them and simply look at the difference between ERA and xFIP or ERA and SIERA. If the sabers are higher than his ERA, he was lucky, if it's the opposite he was unlucky. (If there's a difference of -0.5 or +0.5 I would not consider it big enough.)

Over the last 5 seasons (2010-2014, taking all qualified starting pitchers into account), the average difference of ERA and xFIP was -0.09 and of ERA and SIERA it was -0.14. So you see, that those sabers are a good predictor - at least on average.

If you take a further look, you will see that those guys were the luckiest pitchers regarding the difference of ERA and xFIP:

Season	Name	Team	ERA	xFIP	SIERA	ERA-xFIP
2011	Jeremy Hellickson	Rays	2,95	4,72	4,77	-1,77
2010	Clay Buchholz	Red Sox	2,33	4,07	4,27	-1,74
2014	Chris Young	Mariners	3,65	5,19	5,24	-1,54
2014	Doug Fister	Nationals	2,41	3,85	3,93	-1,44
2013	Travis Wood	Cubs	3,11	4,50	4,43	-1,39
2011	Jered Weaver	Angels	2,41	3,80	3,66	-1,39
2012	Jered Weaver	Angels	2,81	4,18	4,09	-1,37
2012	Jeremy Hellickson	Rays	3,10	4,44	4,51	-1,34
2012	Aaron Harang	Dodgers	3,61	4,95	4,94	-1,34
2013	Bartolo Colon	Athletics	2,65	3,95	4,10	-1,30
2014	Edinson Volquez	Pirates	3,04	4,20	4,20	-1,16
2010	Johan Santana	Mets	2,98	4,13	4,19	-1,15
2011	Ryan Vogelsong	Giants	2,71	3,85	3,96	-1,14
2010	David Price	Rays	2,72	3,83	3,83	-1,11
2012	Kyle Lohse	Cardinals	2,86	3,96	4,13	-1,10
2014	Lance Lynn	Cardinals	2,74	3,81	3,84	-1,07
2013	Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	1,83	2,88	2,99	-1,05
2012	Matt Cain	Giants	2,79	3,82	3,69	-1,03
2010	Trevor Cahill	Athletics	2,97	3,99	4,13	-1,02

(I could show you more tables, bigger tables, blablabla, but there's not enough space for it lol.)

First: Look at the names. Do you see some familiar names, familiar in the meaning of 'boy did they regress'?

Second: Now look at the differences. Not one single qualified starter had a higher difference than -1.77. As I said, a lot of them regressed. Surprise? No!

And...They are only 19 guys. Regarding SIERA there are a few more guys (27) who have been luckier than 1.00 run, but it's stilly only 27 of 443 starters! As I said, Chi Chi has about a 5 run difference between his sabers and his ERA. This - can't - be - kept - up. Never has, never will.

When you turn the page around you will see that from 2010 to 2014 there have been 25 starters who have been rather unlucky regarding the difference between ERA and xFIP (+1.00 or higher) and about the same number (21 starters) regarding SIERA (difference between ERA and SIERA +1.00 or higher). Regarding both calculations, the highest difference was a +1.64 (Edinson Volquez in 2013, there he had an ERA of 5.71 and a xFIP of 4.07 along a SIERA of 4.26, in 2014 he had an ERA of 3.03...surprise? No!) and a +1.63 (James Shields in 2010, he had an ERA of 5.18, a 3.55 xFIP and a 3.55 SIERA, and what did he have in 2011? A 2.82 ERA...surprise? No!).

I hope now you can better understand, why I 'hate' (at least regarding betting) Chi Chi Gonzalez...

[FlyinAir]

+1 to posey.

[No coincidences]

So, now I am at my laptop, so it's easier to write something than with my mobile. The thing is that past performance is more or less an indicator for future performance. But ERA (along other oldschool statistics) is influenced by way too many pitcher-independent things. I don't want to write a big article about sabers and how they are calculated. The internet is full with blogs and comments about that and in my experience it's rather true, that xFIP and especially SIERA beat the conventional stats by a wide, wide margin regarding the quality of a pitcher. It began with FIP, then came xFIP and SIERA is such a strong stat that everyone should look into it. If you ask LTProfits, he will confirm you that his very strong model takes sabers into account. And here comes why I love sabermetrics.

All in all we can say if a pitcher has an ERA which is way above his sabermetric numbers, he was rather unlucky, which means that he will get better raw numbers in the future. If a pitcher has an ERA which is way below his sabermetric numbers, he was rather lucky, which means that he will get worse raw numbers in the future. The first pitcher who came to my mind is Chris Young, now with the Royals. I said it time and time again over the last few days that he will get knocked around sooner or later because his sabers tell us that he was one of the biggest lucksters ever. And then came the Red Sox and boom he got crushed. It was the same thing with Tim Lincecum this season. Same story. I said it time and time again, that although his raw (oldschool) numbers were rather good at the beginning of the season, that he is still the same bad pitcher as in the previous seasons. Why? Because his ERA was much better than in the past few years, but his xFIP and SIERA were even worse (at least in parts). And what happened? From 4/10 to 5/20 he allowed 11 earned runs in in 8 starts (47.2 IP, so a 2.08 ERA). Then in his next six starts he got worse and worse, last time he lasted only 1.1 IP. So in his next 6 starts he allowed 21 earned runs (27.0 IP, so a 7.00 ERA). Was this a surprise? No. Why? Sabermetrics. You won't have luck forever. Your BABIP won't stay below .250 forever. Your LOB% will come down sooner or later. And talking about Chi Chi he owns a BABIP of .183 (unsustainable, league average is about .300) and a LOB% of 94.6% (league average is about 70-71%, so unsustainable, too).

But to keep things easier let's only look at SIERA and xFIP. Yes, there are some guys who outplay their peripherals, which means they are lucky over the course of a whole season (but HOW lucky? as lucky as Chi Chi?) or unlucky over the course of a whole season. More or less the sabers include the BABIP and LOB%, so we can forget them and simply look at the difference between ERA and xFIP or ERA and SIERA. If the sabers are higher than his ERA, he was lucky, if it's the opposite he was unlucky. (If there's a difference of -0.5 or +0.5 I would not consider it big enough.)

Over the last 5 seasons (2010-2014, taking all qualified starting pitchers into account), the average difference of ERA and xFIP was -0.09 and of ERA and SIERA it was -0.14. So you see, that those sabers are a good predictor - at least on average.

If you take a further look, you will see that those guys were the luckiest pitchers regarding the difference of ERA and xFIP:

Season	Name	Team	ERA	xFIP	SIERA	ERA-xFIP
2011	Jeremy Hellickson	Rays	2,95	4,72	4,77	-1,77
2010	Clay Buchholz	Red Sox	2,33	4,07	4,27	-1,74
2014	Chris Young	Mariners	3,65	5,19	5,24	-1,54
2014	Doug Fister	Nationals	2,41	3,85	3,93	-1,44
2013	Travis Wood	Cubs	3,11	4,50	4,43	-1,39
2011	Jered Weaver	Angels	2,41	3,80	3,66	-1,39
2012	Jered Weaver	Angels	2,81	4,18	4,09	-1,37
2012	Jeremy Hellickson	Rays	3,10	4,44	4,51	-1,34
2012	Aaron Harang	Dodgers	3,61	4,95	4,94	-1,34
2013	Bartolo Colon	Athletics	2,65	3,95	4,10	-1,30
2014	Edinson Volquez	Pirates	3,04	4,20	4,20	-1,16
2010	Johan Santana	Mets	2,98	4,13	4,19	-1,15
2011	Ryan Vogelsong	Giants	2,71	3,85	3,96	-1,14
2010	David Price	Rays	2,72	3,83	3,83	-1,11
2012	Kyle Lohse	Cardinals	2,86	3,96	4,13	-1,10
2014	Lance Lynn	Cardinals	2,74	3,81	3,84	-1,07
2013	Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	1,83	2,88	2,99	-1,05
2012	Matt Cain	Giants	2,79	3,82	3,69	-1,03
2010	Trevor Cahill	Athletics	2,97	3,99	4,13	-1,02

(I could show you more tables, bigger tables, blablabla, but there's not enough space for it lol.)
And now look at the difference. Not one single qualified starter had a higher difference than -1.77. And if you look at a few of those guys you see that a lot of them have regressed since then in reality. Those are only 19 guys. Regarding SIERA there are a few more guys (27) who have been luckier than 1.00 run, but it's stilly only 27 of 443 starters! As I said, Chi Chi has about a 5 run difference between his sabers and his ERA. This - can't - be - kept - up. Never has, never will.

When you turn the page around you will see that from 2010 to 2014 there have been 25 starters who have been rather unlucky regarding the difference between ERA and xFIP (+1.00 or higher) and about the same number (21 starters) regarding SIERA (difference between ERA and SIERA +1.00 or higher). Regarding both calculations, the highest difference was a +1.64 (Edinson Volquez in 2013, there he had an ERA of 5.71 and a xFIP of 4.07 along a SIERA of 4.26, in 2014 he had an ERA of 3.03...surprise? No!) and a +1.63 (James Shields in 2010, he had an ERA of 5.18, a 3.55 xFIP and a 3.55 SIERA, and what did he have in 2011? A 2.82 ERA...surprise? No!).

I hope now you can better understand, why I 'hate' (at least regarding betting) Chi Chi Gonzalez...

Outstanding post. Already fading his like a madman tonight even before I saw this.

[mrlif1]

i hate to be that guy, really i do, but baseball just isn't my sport to cap...im curious how much value you put in the .5 run on totals? i have seattle/kc under 7.5 @ -125 with one local and o/u 7 @ even with another. would you pay 25 cents for a half run? in general how much would pay if at all? thanks in advance posey, and keep up the good work.

[posey]

I rarely buy runs on over or under but 25 cent looks okay.

[mrlif1]

thanks man. used the a's ml per your write up. gl tonight.

[Tommy Karate]

exactly why im on oak huge...
wish vogt were playing...

[posey]

6/23

KC Royals (Guthrie) @ SEA Mariners (Montgomery)
Under 7 +107
0-7, PUSH, +-0.00 u.

OAK Athletics (Chavez) @ TEX Rangers (Gonzalez)
OAK Athletics -1.5 +127
8-6, WIN, +1.27 u.

Yesterday: 1-0, +1.27 u.
Record: 75-73, +9.91 u.

[incognitoh]

Yesterday: 1-0, +1.27 u.
Record: 75-73, +9.91 u.

Just to chime in so you know that it is appreciated; your in-depth analysis is excellent. Thanks for taking the time to write the in-depth analysis with supporting statistics to back it up.

[posey]

Thanks! Chi Chi did what he had to do.

Hm, looking at the card from today there's not much I like. Maybe WSH -1.5 or SDP/SFG under, but I have to give it a further look.

[mrlif1]

that half run was clutch. a's were money. good stuff amigo.

[posey]

Sometimes half a run brings money, right!

I found something I like today. Will be my only play.

6/24
LA Dodgers (Bolsinger) @ CHI Cubs (Hendricks)
Cubs ML +101

I had to choose between Under 8 and the Cubs ML and in the end I liked the possibility of a third win by the Cubs more. There are several things which lead me to this bet.

Let's begin with the visitors. The Dodgers lost 7 of their last 9 and have been abysmal on the road this season. As visitors they are only 12-20, 4-10 on the road when their opponents have a winning record and even 1-9 since May in this situation. The 0-1 yesterday has marked the 5th game this season in wich they failed to score a single run on the road against a winning team.
Their offense has been totally different on the road compared to home games. They have a .267 AVG, .336 OBP, .458 SLG and .795 OPS at home, while they have only a .241 AVG, .327 OBP, .407 SLG and .734 on the road. But remember that these are the stats for the whole season and over the last weeks their road offense was even more of a joke. Surprisingly second-tier guys like Turner, Callaspo and an aging Rollins have carried their offense as of late, while Joc Pederson, Grandal, Gonzalez, Ethier and Kendrick have been rather bad.
Their bullpen hasn't done bad lately, but over the course of the season it had its problems already multiple times. It has done worse on the road (3.70 ERA) than at home (3.09 ERA) to date.
Michael Bolsinger will take the mound tonight. He started the season very well and had an ERA of 1.15 over his first five starts. Things have changed since June. Having only 1 solid outing against Arizona at home, he had three rather bad outings at Colorado, at San Diego and against the Giants. His June ERA stands at 5.32 and he wasn't able to pitch more than 5.1 innings in 3 of 4 starts in June. While he has an ERA of 2.25 at Dodgers Stadium, he has been worse on the road, where he has an ERA of 3.80. Sabers tell no difference here. His home xFIP is at 3.08, while his road xFIP is at 4.02. Bolsinger was outstanding against righthanded batters (0.94 WHIP), but rather bad against lefthanded batting (1.62 WHIP). Something for Anthony Rizzo?

Yesterday's 1-0 win gave the Cubbies a 14-7 home record against teams with a winning record (8-3 since May). Additionally the Cubs have won 6 of their last 8 home games when the opponents starter was a righthander. The Cubs have won 4 straight and are 12-6 since June 4th.
The Cubs offense wasn't very good overall this season, neither vs. righthanders, nor at home. But over the last 14 days their offense combined for a wRC+ of over +100, so they turned things around slightly and have scored 4.7 runs/game since June 4th, while they scored 4.0 runs/game before. Bryant has a low AVG over the last 7 days, but hit 3 homeruns in this span, while Rizzo teared it up lately with an .357 AVG and 4 homeruns over the last 7 days.
Over the last 7 days Chicago's bullpen was outstanding as it combined for a 0.82 ERA and in general it has been much better at home (2.94 ERA) than on the road (3.92 ERA).
Kyle Hendricks starts for the Cubs. He has an ERA of 4.28 and a WHIP of 1.24. His xFIP and SIERA are about a half run better than his actual ERA and his 7.33 K/9, 1.71 BB/9 and 0.86 HR/9 have shown that he hasn't done too bad overall. He got roughed up at Minnesota in his last outing. But he has been rebounding from bad outings this season every time. He had 6 starts in which he allowed at least 3 runs, combining for an ERA of 7.76 in those. But in each of his starts following a bad one he has done much better, pitching to an ERA of 1.78 in those. So it's not too unlikely that we will see the better side of Hendricks today, as not only he's rebounded well, but he's also done much better at home. He owns a 3.45 ERA and .226 BAA along a 2.74 xFIP at Wrigley, while on the road he has an ERA of 4.80, a BAA of .291 and an xFIP of 4.16.

So all in all we have two teams which had into a different direction regarding all relevant stats or trends. The way Bolsinger was pitching lately and the road performances of the Dodgers make me believe that there is some value on picking the Cubbies.

And something which helps, too: the homeplate umpire is Jerry Meals. This season the over-under is 8-4-2 when he is behind homeplate and, what is much more important to me, home teams are 10-1 with him behind homeplate since mid April and the Cubs are 2-0 with him this season!

[posey]

6/24
LA Dodgers (Bolsinger) @ CHI Cubs (Hendricks)
Cubs ML +101
5-2, L, -1.00 u.

Damn, UNDER was the play...

Record: 75-74, +8.91 u.

[FlyinAir]

Just another day posey

[posey]

6/25
STL Cardinals (Lynn) @ MIA Marlins (Haren)
STL Cardinals F5 -115

Can't explain, had a 14-hour work day and not much time.

[eddycash]

Was thinking Marlins for today with Haren on the mound

[posey]

Now you know better.

[posey]

6/25
STL Cardinals (Lynn) @ MIA Marlins (Haren)
STL Cardinals F5 -115
1-0 F5, WIN, +0.87 u.

Record: 76-74, +9.77 u.

[terrortwylight]

I just got a chance now to read through Posey's post #365.

Posey, that helped me understand the value of sabermetrics 100x more than I did before to be completely honest. Thank you so much. For real.

[posey]

Glad I could help to understand the value of sabers.

[posey]

6/26
CLE Indians (Kluber) @ BAL Orioles (Chen)
Under 7.5 -121

Both pitchers have no significant number of starts against their opponents, so we start with them directly.

Kluber is doing worse this year compared to last year, but mostly only regarding his raw numbers like W-L (3-9 vs 18-9) and ERA (3.65 vs 2.44). Kluber had some bad outings, that's right, but he was also lightsout a few times and got no win, because the Indians don't seem to score when he starts. When Kluber is on the mound they average 2.3 runs/game. When someone else starts they average 4.5 runs/game. And, what's even more important to me, his sabermetrics and WHIP are not much worse than last year. Kluber's xFIP and SIERA in 2015 are about 0.9 runs lower than his ERA and his WHIP is only 0.06 higher than last season. It seems that he was rather unlucky this year as his sabermetrics and WHIP are still kinda elite. His road ERA (4.02) is higher than his home ERA (3.21), but his road xFIP (2.72) is slightly better than his home xFIP (2.89). All in all I expect him to lower his ERA over the next weeks a little bit and so it's a good thing to expect his opponents to score not too many runs. All in all the under is 14-4 in Kluber's last 18 road starts and the under is also 17-4 in his starts when he had thrown more than 105 in his previous start (he has thrown 112 in his last start vs. Tampa).

Wei Yin Chen starts for the Os and he is doing very well this year. The Chinese has a 2.89 ERA and a WHIP number of 1.12. He is 3-4 in 13 starts, which means he got 6 no-decisions. This is mainly due to the fact the Os score only 3.5 runs/game when he starts, while they score 4.8 runs/game when someone else starts. Chen's sabermetrics tell us that he was a little bit lucky, as his xFIP and SIERA are about 1 run higher than his ERA, but all in all both sabers are still below 4.00 and so it's far from bad. Additionally his home xFIP (3.60) is much better than his road xFIP (4.43). The Under is 17-7-1 in Chen's last 25 home starts. The under is also a whopping 31-11-1 in Chen's starts when he'd thrown at least 100 pitches in his previous start (he had 106 in 8 innings of 0-run-ball against the Phillies in his last outing).

The Indians have won 7 of their last 10 road games when the opponents starter was a lefty, but they scored only 3.8 runs/game and won them most times because of strong pitching (2.8 runs allowed/game). Therefore the under is 7-3 in those 10 games. When the total was lower than 8 the under is 19-10 in the last 29 games of the Indians in this situation. And the under is also 9-5 in the last 14 road series openers of the Indians when the total was lower than 8. The Indians offense is more or less mediocre (95 wRC+ this season), but they scored slightly less runs when the opponents starter was a lefty (3.8) compared to the opponents starter being a righty (4.2).

The Orioles offense has done well recently, but hasn't faced elite starting pitching in about 3 weeks. The last elite starter they faced was Dallas Keuchel on June 4th. It's important for the bet that they face a good starter, as the under is 7-2 this season when the Os play at home and face a righty starter with an ERA of lower than 4.00. Additionally the under is 11-4 in Os games this season when the total is lower than 8.

Regarding the pens, both have done well recently. The Os pen has a 2.51 over the last 7 days, the Indians pen an ERA of 1.09. Additionally the under is 6-1 in the last 7 matchups between both teams.

[44 Mag]

NIce write up. The fact remains, when he starts, they have lost 12 out of 15 games he has started. BOL.

[MikeyD323]

Lets go Posey! Commence the streak!!!!