2015 MLB plays

[No coincidences]

Folding up shop.

I simply can't bet a sport that offers 42-28 Kansas City (20-15 road) with Chris Young (6-3, 2.75 ERA) as a +136 dog against a 34-42 team (14-21 home).

That's literally the dumbest line I've ever seen. No reason for the Royals to be any more than +110 here (and even that is exaggerating).

Not sure what's happened to baseball -- maybe it's more advanced stats that Vegas is falling for, I don't know -- but a strong sport to bet from a line standpoint has gotten way too easy for people who are just looking for easy money. Wish granted I guess.

[BigDofBA]

After watching Miami suck ass and barely score in 5 straight games, I parlayed the Dodgers with like three of my bets today....

Guess what? Miami loses Stanton and suddenly starts hitting against Kershaw?

LOL.

[No coincidences]

HOW SHARP IS THIS GUY

Yeah, just too easy, garbage team like Cubs with a terrible pen for years can't beat an all around team like Cards, ESP. at home, wtf...

Hope you enjoyed gloating in the face of my 10U loss.

[yoderlw]

Instead of quitting why wouldn't you just bet KC today and then find other games where you disagree with the line like you do on the KC game NoCoin?

[leetreaper]

Folding up shop.

I simply can't bet a sport that offers 42-28 Kansas City (20-15 road) with Chris Young (6-3, 2.75 ERA) as a +136 dog against a 34-42 team (14-21 home).

That's literally the dumbest line I've ever seen. No reason for the Royals to be any more than +110 here (and even that is exaggerating).

Not sure what's happened to baseball -- maybe it's more advanced stats that Vegas is falling for, I don't know -- but a strong sport to bet from a line standpoint has gotten way too easy for people who are just looking for easy money. Wish granted I guess.

Once again, why do you base your predictions based on a vegas line? Just cap a game then bet the best possible line available and that's it.

It's very clear to me that Vegas have adjusted their lines this year big time 'cause quite possible they were losing a lot of money to people like you who just figured out the way to bet purely based on a line. That's why it worked for you for a couple of years but it wasn't handicapping, was just lucky observations.

Cheers.

[No coincidences]

Instead of quitting why wouldn't you just bet KC today and then find other games where you disagree with the line like you do on the KC game NoCoin?

Because literally every single year until this one, Kansas City would be +136 for a reason. You could either ignore the game based on the line alone, or pound the other side and back the linesmakers (you know, guys who do this for a living).

Now, the only reason the Royals are +136 is to apparently pump everyone full of free money.

[No coincidences]

Once again, why do you base your predictions based on a vegas line? Just cap a game then bet the best possible line available and that's it.

It's very clear to me that Vegas have adjusted their lines this year big time 'cause quite possible they were losing a lot of money to people like you who just figured out the way to bet purely based on a line. That's why it worked for you for a couple of years but it wasn't handicapping, was just lucky observations.

Cheers.

With all due respect, f\*\*k off. If you honestly think I was betting without handicapping the game and just "getting lucky" for three years straight going off Vegas odds and literally nothing else, well then you obviously haven't been paying any attention to my threads. So don't come in here, make bullshit assumptions, and suck your own dick over being on the opposite side of my plays.

"Cheers."

[leetreaper]

With all due respect, f\*\*k off. If you honestly think I was betting without handicapping the game and just "getting lucky" for three years straight going off Vegas odds and literally nothing else, well then you obviously haven't been paying any attention to my threads. So don't come in here, make bullshit assumptions, and suck your own dick over being on the opposite side of my plays.

"Cheers."

You must be the most stubborn man alive or just plain stupid. Also, fading Cards at home and telling daily how lucky they are - no fukking comment.

[No coincidences]

You must be the most stubborn man alive or just plain stupid. Also, fading Cards at home and telling daily how lucky they are - no fukking comment.

Do you watch their games? I've seen probably 70-80% of all Cardinals games this season. It's a joke. This is not a 110-win team. Not even close.

[leetreaper]

I bet KC tonight so...

[leetreaper]

Do you watch their games? I've seen probably 70-80% of all Cardinals games this season. It's a joke. This is not a 110-win team. Not even close.

If I'm not mistaken they been winning for like 10 years straight or so, watching their games is not making them lucky, case closed.
THEY ARE JUST THAT GOOD. IT'S A FACT.

[No coincidences]

If I'm not mistaken they been winning for like 10 years straight or so, watching their games is not making them lucky, case closed.
THEY ARE JUST THAT GOOD. IT'S A FACT.

First of all, prior seasons mean absolutely nothing. I know you are a winning right now based on using stale trends, but that won't last. Every team/makeup is different. So discussing what the Cardinals have done any time before 2015 is pointless.

The Cardinals are good, without question. But do you know how many MLB teams in history have won 110 games? Look it up. That's their current pace. And they're doing it hitting Jhonny Peralta and Mark Reynolds 3rd and 4th. It's an absolute joke.

[leetreaper]

2012: 50-31 at home, 88 wins

2013: 54-27 at home, 97 wins

2014: 51-30 at home, 90 wins



This year even better numbers, they are as consistent as it gets, I don't understand your obsession with them at all.

[No coincidences]

2012: 50-31 at home, 88 wins

2013: 54-27 at home, 97 wins

2014: 51-30 at home, 90 wins



This year even better numbers, they are as consistent as it gets, I don't understand your obsession with them at all.

Huge, huge difference between playing .625 ball at home and .560 ball overall vs. .794 and .671, respectively -- especially when you have a .269 career 33-year-old batting 3rd and a .230 career 31-year-old batting cleanup.

The regression is not just a possibility -- it's a certainty.

[BigDofBA]

And they're doing it hitting Jhonny Peralta and Mark Reynolds 3rd and 4th. It's an absolute joke.

Not trying to get into the pissing match but that's not why they are doing it. Holliday has been hitting third most of the year until just recently. It's not like Reynolds has been their clean up guy all year.

They have the best ERA in baseball and are 6th in the MLB in team batting average. That's why they're so good. They have like 6 guys flirting with a .300 batting average and their lineup really doesn't have any holes. That's why it seems like they have a different guy be the "hero" every night.


Peralta is hitting over .300 with 11 hrs and 40 RBIs by the way. That's not bad when you're surrounded by Holliday, Carpenter, and an emerging star in Wong. Throw in Heyward and Molina who hits for average along with a few guys with speed and you have a pretty good lineup to go along with the pitching.

They probably won't win 110 games because they'll have the division wrapped up before September but they could win 100.

[No coincidences]

Not trying to get into the pissing match but that's not why they are doing it. Holliday has been hitting third most of the year until just recently. It's not like Reynolds has been their clean up guy all year.

They have the best ERA in baseball and are 6th in the MLB in team batting average. That's why they're so good. They have like 6 guys flirting with a .300 batting average and their lineup really doesn't have any holes. That's why it seems like they have a different guy be the "hero" every night.


Peralta is hitting over .300 with 11 hrs and 40 RBIs by the way. That's not bad when you're surrounded by Holliday, Carpenter, and an emerging star in Wong. Throw in Heyward and Molina who hits for average along with a few guys with speed and you have a pretty good lineup to go along with the pitching.

They probably won't win 110 games because they'll have the division wrapped up before September but they could win 100.

Again, don't get it twisted. The Cardinals are very good. But come on, Big D. Last night is a perfect example. Some no-namer comes out of nowhere and hits an 8th-inning home run to tie the game. How many homers had he hit in the minors so far this year? Look it up.

Baseball is a game built on the law of averages. Even the best teams lose 4 games out of 10, and even the worst win 4 games out of 10. Look at this "vaunted" Cardinals' bullpen -- Carlos Villanueva (1.30 ERA vs. 4.17 ERA for his career)? Kevin Siegrist (1.67 ERA, averages over 4 walks per 9 IP for his career)? Randy Choate (2.40 ERA vs. 3.84 for his career)? Matt Belisle? Seth Maness? Come on. Their numbers are ridiculous and not even close to being realistic compared to where they'll end up.

[No coincidences]

Wade Davis goes from 1st and 2nd with no one out and 3-0 to Vogt to striking him out and then getting a double play.

Wade Davis is literally unhittable.

Wade Davis.

This is exactly what I'm talking about. Big difference between improving and basically becoming historically good overnight. Wade Davis is now the most dominant relief pitcher baseball has seen since Mariano Rivera.

Again, Wade Davis.

[BigDofBA]

Again, don't get it twisted. The Cardinals are very good. But come on, Big D. Last night is a perfect example. Some no-namer comes out of nowhere and hits an 8th-inning home run to tie the game. How many homers had he hit in the minors so far this year? Look it up.

Baseball is a game built on the law of averages. Even the best teams lose 4 games out of 10, and even the worst win 4 games out of 10. Look at this "vaunted" Cardinals' bullpen -- Carlos Villanueva (1.30 ERA vs. 4.17 ERA for his career)? Kevin Siegrist (1.67 ERA, averages over 4 walks per 9 IP for his career)? Randy Choate (2.40 ERA vs. 3.84 for his career)? Matt Belisle? Seth Maness? Come on. Their numbers are ridiculous and not even close to being realistic compared to where they'll end up.

Last night was a bit unlucky and I think i pointed out that was Garcia's first career MLB HR.

Their starting pitching is much better than their pen but these relievers come into games as situational guys and are typically well rested since the starters go deep.

They won't win 110 games but they'll win close to 100 most likely.

[BigDofBA]

Wade Davis goes from 1st and 2nd with no one out and 3-0 to Vogt to striking him out and then getting a double play.

Wade Davis is literally unhittable.

Wade Davis.

This is exactly what I'm talking about. Big difference between improving and basically becoming historically good overnight. Wade Davis is now the most dominant relief pitcher baseball has seen since Mariano Rivera.

Again, Wade Davis.

I picked up Davis for my fantasy team even though he is just an 8th inning guy. He has done work.

[No coincidences]

I picked up Davis for my fantasy team even though he is just an 8th inning guy. He has done work.

He went from a failed starting pitcher to a cyborg reliever.

His numbers stack up as good as anyone in the history of baseball over the last two years. In fact, he's done some things no other pitcher has done.

Wade Davis.

[leetreaper]

Again, don't get it twisted. The Cardinals are very good. But come on, Big D. Last night is a perfect example. Some no-namer comes out of nowhere and hits an 8th-inning home run to tie the game. How many homers had he hit in the minors so far this year? Look it up.

Baseball is a game built on the law of averages. Even the best teams lose 4 games out of 10, and even the worst win 4 games out of 10. Look at this "vaunted" Cardinals' bullpen -- Carlos Villanueva (1.30 ERA vs. 4.17 ERA for his career)? Kevin Siegrist (1.67 ERA, averages over 4 walks per 9 IP for his career)? Randy Choate (2.40 ERA vs. 3.84 for his career)? Matt Belisle? Seth Maness? Come on. Their numbers are ridiculous and not even close to being realistic compared to where they'll end up.

Put Cubs bullpen in extra innings vs ANY TEAM in the league, they won't win. And it's a well known fact. With 2 good starting pitchers on the mound that game, I have no idea how could you possibly make that play 10 Units. Maybe in Chicago I could see it but in STL it's a suicide basically.

[JameisBrady]

2012: 50-31 at home, 88 wins

2013: 54-27 at home, 97 wins

2014: 51-30 at home, 90 wins



This year even better numbers, they are as consistent as it gets, I don't understand your obsession with them at all.

haha bro there's a reason they call him no coin. he'd rather lose 9 out of 10 bets like that and win that one time just to show how right he was on the 10th try lmao

[No coincidences]

haha bro there's a reason they call him no coin. he'd rather lose 9 out of 10 bets like that and win that one time just to show how right he was on the 10th try lmao

Yeah, good point. BTW, to drive it home, check out my MLB thread from 2012, '13 and '14. That will really make this post look intelligent.

[BigDofBA]

He went from a failed starting pitcher to a cyborg reliever.

His numbers stack up as good as anyone in the history of baseball over the last two years. In fact, he's done some things no other pitcher has done.

Wade Davis.

In fantasy bases you never use a spot for a middle reliever but he is seriously kicking ass. Three wins, 8 saves, 35k, .29 ERA, and .77 WHIP!

			IP	H	ER	BB	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
P	Wade Davis, KC RP		31	14	1	10	35	3	8	0.29	0.77

[No coincidences]

Wade Davis has given up 1 run in 33 IP this year. His ERA is 0.29. Last year, it was 1.

We are seeing history from a guy who was on the brink of being out of baseball a few years ago after an 8-11, 5.32 ERA season for the Royals in 2013. From a numbers standpoint, no one has ever done what he's done over the last two years.

[No coincidences]

Put Cubs bullpen in extra innings vs ANY TEAM in the league, they won't win. And it's a well known fact. With 2 good starting pitchers on the mound that game, I have no idea how could you possibly make that play 10 Units. Maybe in Chicago I could see it but in STL it's a suicide basically.

Thanks for the hindsight analysis. Obviously when the game was only 2-1 Cubs late (should've been 5-1), I knew the Cardinals would score some fluke run and then win the game magically in extra innings. But I bet the game before it happened. You're analyzing it after it happened.

[leetreaper]

Thanks for the hindsight analysis. Obviously when the game was only 2-1 Cubs late (should've been 5-1), I knew the Cardinals would score some fluke run and then win the game magically in extra innings. But I bet the game before it happened. You're analyzing it after it happened.

No, it happens more often than not. Been watching baseball for years and Cubs blow leads in 8th or 9th on a regular basis, and I'm not talking about 1 run, 3+

[BigDofBA]

Davis might finish the year with 70 Ks, 7 wins, 20 saves, and an ERA under 1 as a set-up man.....

[BigDofBA]

I am just going to parlay the Angels and Cardinals and put no thought into it to see what happens.

[RavensFan2k3]

I am just going to parlay the Angels and Cardinals and put no thought into it to see what happens.

Thats actually a good play

[No coincidences]

I am just going to parlay the Angels and Cardinals and put no thought into it to see what happens.

Just make sure you don't beat the closing number.

If you have so far today, you'd be 0-7.

[No coincidences]

Thats actually a good play

Cardinals will lose today now that I'm not fading them.

Watch. All but guaranteed.

[leetreaper]

Thanks for the hindsight analysis. Obviously when the game was only 2-1 Cubs late (should've been 5-1), I knew the Cardinals would score some fluke run and then win the game magically in extra innings. But I bet the game before it happened. You're analyzing it after it happened.

And by the way, I called THE EXACT SCORE and a WINNER in your thread BEFORE THE GAME.

[yoderlw]

Yeah I understand what you're saying here NoCoin. It's just that I know there are significantly fewer guys that have your thought process than the reverse so it makes no sense for the books to let them win rather than you. And therein lies your frustration I'm guessing.

[yoderlw]

At any rate I hate to see you quit NoCoin. You're one of the truly good cappers and good guys on this site.