2015 MLB plays

[GT21Megatron]

Houston has been even money the last two days at Coors Field.

Astros are 39-28. Rockies are 28-37.

Rockies have started Kyle Kendrick, arguably the worst SP in all of baseball, and David Hale, a virtual unknown with an ERA of 4.56. Astros countered with Oberholtzer (ERA under 3) and McHugh (6-3). Rockies are just 13-19 at home, had just lost two in a row at Houston, and 8 of 9 overall. On top of it all, the line moved in Colorado's favor both days.

Those were gift lines to the public.

Not necesserily man. Goes both ways....Vegas don't care about -115 switch over to -105 if it can bring more people and money who are just simply following the movement on a game.....I follow the lines but you gotta look and research previous lines to get a feel on those trends if your just straight up going off the line movement....,Astros made perfect sense last night.....didn't mess with it today

[BigDofBA]

Those were gift lines to the public.

Exactly. The public...if by "public" we mean, the less informed bettor that does this once or twice a year when they are in Vegas. I say that because I consider this board the public.

Anyway, I know exactly where you are coming from. We've all done it. The Rockies suck and Houston is good. Colorado is starting a shit pitcher against a good pitcher yet Colorado is favored.....that means the books know something we don't know, so we bet Colorado. We lose and are left shaking are heads wondering wtf.

The books are wrong just enough to make sports betting even more difficult. I also think sometimes they just fire out a line knowing they're going to get more action on the lesser team if they make them favored.


The NBA, MAC football, and Hawaii college basketball are totally different. I think Vegas runs those leagues and teams.

[GT21Megatron]

Exactly. The public...if by "public" we mean, the less informed bettor that does this once or twice a year when they are in Vegas. I say that because I consider this board, the public.

Anyway, I know exactly where you are coming from. We've all done it. The Rockies suck and Houston is good. Colorado is starting a shit pitcher against a good pitcher yet Colorado is favored.....that means the books no something we don't know, so we bet Colorado. We lose and are left shaking are heads wondering wtf.

The books are wrong just enough to make sports betting even more difficult. I also think sometimes they just fire out a line knowing their going to get more action on the lesser team if they make them favored.

The NBA, MAC football, and Hawaii college basketball are totally different. I think Vegas runs those leagues and teams.

i did it with the Phillies but liked the movement on the game too....it lost but really easily could of won...oh well

[BigDofBA]

BOS -108 (3.24U to win 3)

This is another instance where the line looks like Boston is "the play" but I'm laying off because this POS team has fvcked me over numerous times this year.

[No coincidences]

CLE -140 (4.2U to win 3)

[BigDofBA]

i did it with the Phillies but liked the movement on the game too....it lost but really easily could of won...oh well

I do the best in bases when I follow my gut and my feel for what's going on. What I mean by that is I if see the Cardinals at -105 and I think that's a super good bet based on how they're playing, I bet it even though it looks square as f\*\*k. Then I see the Cardinals at like -167 but I fade them because they're in a tough spot and it seems like a game they might now show up for.

Other times I look at the matchup and get a feeling the big underdog might win "then" I look at the line and see they're not as big of a dog as I thought they would be. These are the games where the line kind of corroborates my line of thinking.

With that said, I haven't done that well this year as I have in previous years so wtf do I know. LOL.

[No coincidences]

TEX TT under 3 (2.3U to win 2)
SEA TT over 4 (2.2U to win 2)

[No coincidences]

SEA -135 (2.7U to win 2)

[Tommy Karate]

WAS +107 (5U to win 5.35)
CHW +125 (4U to win 5)
BOS -108 (3.24U to win 3)

terrible beat on wash.....i cant believe they came back

[Tommy Karate]

Houston has been even money the last two days at Coors Field.

Astros are 39-28. Rockies are 28-37.

Rockies have started Kyle Kendrick, arguably the worst SP in all of baseball, and David Hale, a virtual unknown with an ERA of 4.56. Astros countered with Oberholtzer (ERA under 3) and McHugh (6-3). Rockies are just 13-19 at home, had just lost two in a row at Houston, and 8 of 9 overall. On top of it all, the line moved in Colorado's favor both days.

Those were gift lines to the public.

Forget ERA -- look at a pitchers SIERA:

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/siera/

If you look at Hale vs Hoberletzer, Hale is actually the better pitcher when looking at advanced statistics.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3855&position=P#battedball

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9756&position=P#battedball

[BigDofBA]

terrible beat on wash.....i cant believe they came back

How was it a terrible beat?

I was on Washington BTW.

[No coincidences]

SEA +130 (5U to win 6.5)
CIN -124 (3.72U to win 3)

[No coincidences]

WAS +121 (2U to win 2.42)
MIN +107 (2U to win 2.14)

[EXhoosier10]

Forget ERA -- look at a pitchers SIERA:

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/siera/

If you look at Hale vs Hoberletzer, Hale is actually the better pitcher when looking at advanced statistics.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3855&position=P#battedball

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...n=P#battedball

Agree on principle, but the example doesn't hold for david hale. guy isn't any good

[Tommy Karate]

How was it a terrible beat?

I was on Washington BTW.

not bad beat as in botched DP - i just saw they were up 3-1 and really didnt expect TB's offense to come back vs a decent pen

[Tommy Karate]

Agree on principle, but the example doesn't hold for david hale. guy isn't any good

just trying to explain why Hou wasnt a huge favorite - proof that oddsmakers are looking at advanced stats over basic.
i would bet hale has a sierra in the mid 4 range by year end

[No coincidences]

SEA +130 (5U to win 6.5)
CIN -124 (3.72U to win 3)

WAS +121 (2U to win 2.42)
MIN +107 (2U to win 2.14)

Needed that night desperately.

On O's and Twins again today, but didn't get them posted in time. Been busy. Sorry.

[RavensFan2k3]

Needed that night desperately.

On O's and Twins again today, but didn't get them posted in time. Been busy. Sorry.

It's okay man, best of luck

[No coincidences]

SEA +115 (3U to win 3.45)
NYM -119 (2.38U to win 2)
BOS +119 (2U to win 2.38)

[RavensFan2k3]

Dang im against the 2nd and third picks

[No coincidences]

red sox plus 132

7u bet

only play

happy father's day!

[No coincidences]

Also liked tribe, angels, white sox

[jihadvillager]

nice hit price and hit on redsox ! hope you had a good fathers day

[No coincidences]

nice hit price and hit on redsox ! hope you had a good fathers day

Thanks. I did. Ready to get back to the grind today.

[No coincidences]

132-160, -29.17U thread

Horrible week in the books.

[Julian9]

any plays or leans today bud? always like to see what you are thinking, best of luck

[No coincidences]

Missed some great numbers, but now that I've finally had a chance to sit down and look at the card, I might still have a huge card tonight.

Leaning Reds, A's, White Sox, Marlins.

[No coincidences]

any plays or leans today bud? always like to see what you are thinking, best of luck

BOL to you as well.

Hoping to get this ship righted soon.

[No coincidences]

Also lean Brewers, Tribe, Nats.

[No coincidences]

OAK -123 (6.15U to win 5)
CIN +140 (3U to win 4.2)
CHW -106 (3.18U to win 3)
CLE -104 (3.12U to win 3)
MIA +125 (1U to win 1.25)
MIL -149 (1.49U to win 1)

[t-bone]

OAK -123 (6.15U to win 5)
CIN +140 (3U to win 4.2)
CHW -106 (3.18U to win 3)
CLE -104 (3.12U to win 3)
MIA +125 (1U to win 1.25)
MIL -149 (1.49U to win 1)

I like White Sox and Reds

[No coincidences]

I like White Sox and Reds

Let's get it my friend.

[Tommy Karate]

chu chu

[Ralphie1412]

Locke throwing BP

[paco]

Fiers stinks. Never should Milwaukee be more than a -110 fav