First year on mlb and still learning along the way. Only did one total so far because it just seemed like a given for who was playing. Just like to know what's a good staring angle point when looking at totals? Any useful tools anyone uses? Thanks much and appreciated.
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I believe they are tough because you are playing both teams...not just one team. I like looking at games where the public is hitting the over heavy and the juice on the under is + or better. Being a baseball fan of the pitcher, I like playing unders more then overs, so I like getting those + odds on the under when the over is being hit at around 85% or over. A lot of time it will come down to two pitchers who everyone assumes to serve up beach balls. Perfect example was when Hand from Miami pitched against Nuno from the Yankees, the over was 8.5 and public at around 85%...total was way Under...thats just something I look at, I rarely play the over.
Hope this helps, just 1 thing I look at each morning and base off of thereComment -
Thanks for the tip blue
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I look at weather, pitchers, consider how teams are currently hitting, certain umpires , stadiums lot to consider. An angle I like also is if it's a 3 gm series and first two sailed ov I like going under in gm 3 and vice versa. There are also teams built more around pitching but can't hit for shit like Stl or Atl and some teams just can't hit period and alarmingly bad like Diego who also happen to play in a pitcher friendly park. Just like sides get to know the teams and some of their tendencies and do your homework on other factors I mentioned day of the gm. GlComment -
Thank you for the tips, much appreciated. I'm going to try a few tomorrow and see how it turns out.Comment -
Few things that I look at outside the obvious factors:
-Teams that put up a ton of hits and runs (12+) in a game tend to struggle offensively in their next- UNDER
-Teams that play late and have to travel that night tend to be worn out the next day- UNDER
-Wind can play a role, strong wind blowing in or vice versaComment -
One big tool I'm using for last month is starting pitchers history vs opposing team roster. This usually is a good indicator.
Dailybaseball.com I believe is the site for that.
Just Google: mlb stats pitcher vs batter.
But also look at how the starting pitcher has faired vs the team in his career...look at last 3-5 starts.
Wind is somewhat of a factor, but not as big a deal as I thought. A 10 mph wind out is so minimal unless you have a fly ball pitcher in a hitters park.Comment -
Where are you finding the public % on mlb o/u? I can only find the public % on moneyline and spreads but not the o/u.Comment -
I honestly believe that if you can think about it, Vegas has already taken it into consideration with the totals. They don't set a line and not know the extra factors that we use to handicap a game. I think that looking at how hitters are swinging against a pitcher are more important when compared to wind blowing out or possible rain. Just like football, weather should not be your lone indicator in playing a total. I remember the Eagles vs Lions game this year where the total opened at 54, dropped to around 51 and it was pouring snow, a classic ice bowl. Final score 30-24. If you can think about it and google it, Vegas already did itComment -
This is the only site I use for totals. Havent needed to look for another siteComment -
Thank you for the advice!
Roll crazy you said that, I stumbled across oddshark last night.Comment -
Watch the juice. People around here continue to endorse totals @ -125 & -130 & it's comical. Totals are unbeatable long term when laying anything over -120. I would rarely lay -120 as well but sometimes you are forced too. If it goes to -125 or -130 just pass & wait for better spot.Comment
