Brandon McCarthy and line movement when he starts

[PerfectGrape]

Another myth.

LT, you need to stop using antiquated thinking/terminology when it comes to gambling. Do that, and you will see the results come back. That, and catch an actual game every once in a while.

In this day and age, everyone has access to information that used to be stuff for insiders. Books have adjusted to that. Beating the closing number isn't what it once was, and all of your advanced stats are already baked into the line.

maybe line movement isn't a big factor in determining the right side to be on, but why wouldn't you want to try to forecast line movement to get the best line? you will still be more profitable in the long run if you get extra points when you win and save extra points when you lose.

[PerfectGrape]

xFIP-, FIP-, ERA- work the same way like OPS+ and wRC+. They compare the xFIP, FIP and ERA to league average where 100 is the league average rating.

thats what i thought, xfip will be higher at a place like coors

[PerfectGrape]

thats what i thought, xfip will be higher at a place like coors

or maybe not because it is adjusted for hrs

[No coincidences]

Don't be such a dick only because you don't understand
- how sabermetrics work
- McCarthy's sample size is too small
- stats (although available to everyone) have to be weighed in the right way
when picking bets.

I completely understand how they work. It just doesn't apply apples-to-apples to gambling, which is the trap many bettors fall into over and over again.

[posey]

I completely understand how they work. It just doesn't apply apples-to-apples to gambling, which is the trap many bettors fall into over and over again.

No! I don't have to say much more because you are wrong. Sorry.

[PerfectGrape]

i thought xfip adjusts for home run rates over fip, not ballparks. xfip- adjusts for ballparks/league average on a scale of 100.

nvm, the only park factor dependence in fip is hr rate which xfip removes, so xfip is def ballpark adjusted fip.

It removes the variance in home runs due to ballparks or just year to year variance.

[No coincidences]

No! I don't have to say much more because you are wrong. Sorry.

I'm sorry, and where is your thread of tracked plays again?

[Cappinpicks]

is there a mercy rule for shitty pitchers? how long does a guy gotta lose before a team feels bad? must just be fading him with the farm each start

[posey]

I'm sorry, and where is your thread of tracked plays again?

Did McCarthy or the bullpen lose the game? Is 3 ER in 7 IP bad or solid?

[darrell74]

Phuck it, I'll jinx everything.
I'm betting the Brew crew

[LT Profits]

I completely understand how they work. It just doesn't apply apples-to-apples to gambling, which is the trap many bettors fall into over and over again.

But instead of constantly complaining about it, you should be HAPPY about it! You know that sabres move lines and you disagree that should be the case. You don't see how that could benefit you?

[No coincidences]

But instead of constantly complaining about it, you should be HAPPY about it! You know that sabres move lines and you disagree that should be the case. You don't see how that could benefit you?

I disagree that it should ALWAYS be the case. That's the problem with people and their numbers and their models and their systems and never watching games. It's not something you should be married to. You may have the number-crunching aspect of gambling down, but you are being penalized for never watching a game or a player perform. That's why you're losing in every sport. And frankly, that's the way it should be -- for the same reason you shouldn't be able to win betting solely on feel and hunches without tracking numbers and line movement.

[LT Profits]

I disagree that it should ALWAYS be the case. That's the problem with people and their numbers and their models and their systems and never watching games. It's not something you should be married to. You may have the number-crunching aspect of gambling down, but you are being penalized for never watching a game or a player perform. That's why you're losing in every sport. And frankly, that's the way it should be -- for the same reason you shouldn't be able to win betting solely on feel and hunches without tracking numbers and line movement.

But again, you should be thankful for the cases where you do disagree with the moves instead of griping about it.

As for my methods, nothing has ever changed, I was 100% numbers even when I was winning. Even when I incorporate intangibles like letdowns and look-aheads, I do it by assigning values to certain situations. In my mind, you HAVE to be able to put numerical values on things to even know if there is any value in a bet in the first place.

And I think watching games is overrated because it can actually hurt you by making you bias toward certain players.

[posey]

I disagree that it should ALWAYS be the case. That's the problem with people and their numbers and their models and their systems and never watching games. It's not something you should be married to. You may have the number-crunching aspect of gambling down, but you are being penalized for never watching a game or a player perform. That's why you're losing in every sport. And frankly, that's the way it should be -- for the same reason you shouldn't be able to win betting solely on feel and hunches without tracking numbers and line movement.

I really don't understand why you think people who rely on sabermetrics don't watch any baseball games. At least one could think you are expecting exactly this.
In fact I am from Germany, a country, in which baseball is unpopular like sh*t. If I want to watch a live game of my favorite team, the Giants, I have to go up at 3 or 4 o' clock in the morning and watch the game pre work. I do this quite often. When I get back home from work, I watch another game of the previous night, while I do some stat research to back up my ideas and to find some hints on where could be value.
Honestly, I don't see what's wrong with this approach.
If you would be the super guru like you pretend to be, you wouldn't be here since 2010 and still posting. That's for sure.
I am really interested in how you can track all teams with an approach that consists solely of watching games. Do you have the time to watch 15 baseball games per day, every game about 3 hours long? Does your day have 45 hours and you do nothing else, while mine has 24 hours and I have to sleep and go to work, too?