Brandon McCarthy and line movement when he starts

[No coincidences]

Could anyone provide the opening/closing lines when McCarthy starts for Arizona? Nearly every single time he pitches, it seems like there is huge RLM in his favor. Yet he's 1-9 with a 5.21 ERA. Tonight is a perfect example.

Something is up with this situation.

[leetreaper]

Same shit, different day...

[jds07v]

His k/9 is at a career high. His bb/9 is well below his career average. And his ground ball % (56%) is a career high. All his peripherals are good, except that his HR/FB % is 22%, when his career average is 10%.

Basically he's allowing fewer fly balls then ever, but more home runs than ever. His BABIP is also on the high side with a .336 clip.

His FIP of 4.04 and his xFIP of 2.86 show that he is much much better than than the 5.3 era he has posted thus far

[No coincidences]

His FIP of 4.04 and his xFIP of 2.86 show that he is much much better than than the 5.3 era he has posted thus far

It has start after start after start, yet he keeps losing and looking terrible in doing so.

[Tony Williams]

His k/9 is at a career high. His bb/9 is well below his career average. And his ground ball % (56%) is a career high. All his peripherals are good, except that his HR/FB % is 22%, when his career average is 10%.

Basically he's allowing fewer fly balls then ever, but more home runs than ever. His BABIP is also on the high side with a .336 clip.

His FIP of 4.04 and his xFIP of 2.86 show that he is much much better than than the 5.3 era he has posted thus far

Could you elaborate or link me to the thread relevant to explaining xFIP and the other terminology you used in this explanation. Would appreciate it-thanks!

[Derka2014]

who cares, just bet who you think will win.

[LT Profits]

It has start after start after start, yet he keeps losing and looking terrible in doing so.

But it is still the right answer. He keeps getting bet because his sabres run well ahead if his mainstream numbers.

[LT Profits]

Could you elaborate or link me to the thread relevant to explaining xFIP and the other terminology you used in this explanation. Would appreciate it-thanks!

xFIP is simply ballpark adjusted FIP.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Glossary on upper right

[Big Bear]

Same shit, different day...

yep. Line movement is irrevelant.

[Tony Williams]

xFIP is simply ballpark adjusted FIP.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Glossary on upper right

Appreciate it, Thanks LT Profits!

[Shadow Sports]

The Brewers don't fare too poorly against righthanders.

McCarthy has had a tough start.

In an analogous fashion, I know a MLB capper who is beating the closing line by an astonishing margin and yet he keeps losing.



Tonight may be the night where McCarthy gets well

[darrell74]

Phuck it, I'll jinx everything.
I'm betting the Brew crew

[Ronald S.]

Might be a play against Peralta too. I watched his start against Arizona earlier in the year and he was very lucky to only give up 2 runs... Seemed like the dbacks had RISP almost every inning. He's probably also a worse pitcher than his 2.90 ERA. His FIP (4.04) is actually the same as McCarthy's

[LT Profits]

Part of line movement may also be due to no Carlos Gomez.

Brewers
1. Scooter Gennett (L) 2B

2. Ryan Braun (R) RF

3. Jonathan Lucroy (R) C
4. Aramis Ramirez (R) 3B
5. Khris Davis (R) LF

6. Mark Reynolds (R) 1B
7. Jean Segura (R) SS

8. Elian Herrera (S) CF

9. Wily Peralta (R) P



Diamondbacks
1. Gerardo Parra (L) RF

2. Martin Prado (R) 3B

3. Paul Goldschmidt (R) 1B

4. Miguel Montero (L) C
5. Aaron Hill (R) 2B
6. David Peralta (L) CF
7. Chris Owings (R) SS
8. Roger Kieschnick (L) LF
9. Brandon McCarthy (R) P

[No coincidences]

Part of line movement may also be due to no Carlos Gomez.

Brewers
1. Scooter Gennett (L) 2B

2. Ryan Braun (R) RF

3. Jonathan Lucroy (R) C
4. Aramis Ramirez (R) 3B
5. Khris Davis (R) LF

6. Mark Reynolds (R) 1B
7. Jean Segura (R) SS

8. Elian Herrera (S) CF

9. Wily Peralta (R) P



Diamondbacks
1. Gerardo Parra (L) RF

2. Martin Prado (R) 3B

3. Paul Goldschmidt (R) 1B

4. Miguel Montero (L) C
5. Aaron Hill (R) 2B
6. David Peralta (L) CF
7. Chris Owings (R) SS
8. Roger Kieschnick (L) LF
9. Brandon McCarthy (R) P

I think I'll just take ARI TT over 4. Don't know how anyone can trust McCarthy.

Again, LT, you don't even watch him pitch. All of this advanced stat shit when no one actually bothers to watch a game drives me nuts.

[LT Profits]

Again, LT, you don't even watch him pitch. All of this advanced stat shit when no one actually bothers to watch a game drives me nuts.

You asked the question why he always gets bet and I answered. Just like when you often ask why a college basketball line often converges to Pomeroy. It is what it is, you don't have to agree with it.

[No coincidences]

You asked the question why he always gets bet and I answered. Just like when you often ask why a college basketball line often converges to Pomeroy. It is what it is, you don't have to agree with it.

You're right. I don't. I like winning money -- not losing it because of the numbers from nerdville.

[LT Profits]

You're right. I don't. I like winning money -- not losing it because of the numbers from nerdville.

Then go against the moves. "Nerdville" makes it a bit easier to project which way the line will move. (Not 100% obviously but often enough).

[No coincidences]

Then go against the moves. "Nerdville" makes it a bit easier to project which way the line will move. (Not 100% obviously but often enough).

You can't bet baseball on numbers and stats alone. Period.

[LT Profits]

You can't bet baseball on numbers and stats alone. Period.

But you ALWAYS want to bet the best number, regardless of the sport. So having a reliable "nerd-model" if you will is helpful to everyone in terms of predicting movement.

[No coincidences]

But you ALWAYS want to bet the best number, regardless of the sport. So having a reliable "nerd-model" if you will is helpful to everyone in terms of predicting movement.

Another myth.

LT, you need to stop using antiquated thinking/terminology when it comes to gambling. Do that, and you will see the results come back. That, and catch an actual game every once in a while.

In this day and age, everyone has access to information that used to be stuff for insiders. Books have adjusted to that. Beating the closing number isn't what it once was, and all of your advanced stats are already baked into the line.

[No coincidences]

Another solid start for McCarthy.



Is this the equivalent of point shaving?

[GT21Megatron]

C'mon McCarthy you ass clown

[GT21Megatron]

Dbacks gonna score at least 5 I'll take that

[No coincidences]

Dbacks gonna score at least 5 I'll take that

I just took their TT over.

Seriously, every McCarthy start has at least 20 cents of "RLM."

[GT21Megatron]

I just took their TT over.

Seriously, every McCarthy start has at least 20 cents of "RLM."

Peralta gonna give it right back this is gonna be a run fest

[GT21Megatron]

Peralta gonna give it right back this is gonna be a run fest

Weird

[No coincidences]

And then the trainwreck gives it right back again.

It's a good thing his xFIP, his WAR and HIJKLMNOP tell you how good of a pitcher he truly is.

[Cappinpicks]

This guy has no brains left after that line drive lol

[No coincidences]

Nerds lose again.

[Cappinpicks]

What a retard -1400 dollars from 100 bux on him

[Cappinpicks]

-3 brewers extra free money can't make this up

[PerfectGrape]

xFIP is simply ballpark adjusted FIP.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Glossary on upper right

i thought xfip adjusts for home run rates over fip, not ballparks. xfip- adjusts for ballparks/league average on a scale of 100.

[posey]

Nerds lose again.

Don't be such a dick only because you don't understand
- how sabermetrics work
- McCarthy's sample size is too small
- stats (although available to everyone) have to be weighed in the right way
when picking bets.

[posey]

i thought xfip adjusts for home run rates over fip, not ballparks. xfip- adjusts for ballparks/league average on a scale of 100.

xFIP-, FIP-, ERA- work the same way like OPS+ and wRC+. They compare the xFIP, FIP and ERA to league average where 100 is the league average rating.