2014 MLB thread with friends

**Pauulzcappin** · 08-05-14, 06:17 PM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

Astros look good. Almost to good....

I like Houston but am laying off.

exactly. I took them. kendrick looked like sandy koufax in the first inning.

**BigDofBA** · 08-05-14, 06:21 PM

When uncertain, fade Landers.

**You mad bro** · 08-05-14, 06:26 PM

mets easy money just like the angels last night

**BigDofBA** · 08-05-14, 06:33 PM

Originally posted by EbberKanezzer2

[ATTACH]71481[/ATTACH]

Unreal. Blindly took the over after seeing this. Already 4-1.

**Ralphie1412** · 08-05-14, 06:33 PM

Brock is on cinci under and there is 5 runs in an inning and a half

cant make this shit up

**ShogunRua** · 08-05-14, 06:36 PM

**Ralphie1412** · 08-06-14, 12:30 AM

Ok where is brock posting these plays? Havent seen his posts. Just hear about them.

**Lincoln Scofield** · 08-06-14, 07:31 AM

Originally posted by Ralphie1412

Ok where is brock posting these plays? Havent seen his posts. Just hear about them.

He posts them on another gambling forum.

He started a thread recently with a roll of like $2500 and lost it in less than 2 weeks I want to say. That post from yesterday was just in a discussion thread they had over there for yesterday's card.

**Smoothieopath** · 08-06-14, 10:06 AM

MIN ml
CHW tt ov 4
OAK tt ov 4

**No coincidences** · 08-06-14, 11:38 AM

ATL -115 (2.3U to win 2)
TEX +1.5 +100 (1U to win 1)

**crbravens23** · 08-06-14, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

ATL -115 (2.3U to win 2)
TEX +1.5 +100 (1U to win 1)

like them both. GL!

**EXhoosier10** · 08-06-14, 11:47 AM

under in SD -105 ~ 2u

**No coincidences** · 08-06-14, 11:58 AM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

under in SD -105 ~ 2u

I'm not seeing what most of the board is seeing on this under, Ex -- thoughts?

**RollinDo** · 08-06-14, 12:01 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I'm not seeing what most of the board is seeing on this under, Ex -- thoughts?

Me neither man.
It may hit just because SD sucks in day games (hitting), but these 2 pitchers are a downgrade from last night.
I am an Under guy and see the Over more than the Under.
Took last night's Under.

**RollinDo** · 08-06-14, 12:01 PM

I do like the Under in Seattle though.

**secret007** · 08-06-14, 12:02 PM

if you have to take a side NoCoin, Padres or Twins?

**No coincidences** · 08-06-14, 12:04 PM

Originally posted by secret007

if you have to take a side NoCoin, Padres or Twins?

Pads, though I wouldn't be crazy about backing Despaigne on the road.

**EXhoosier10** · 08-06-14, 12:06 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I'm not seeing what most of the board is seeing on this under, Ex -- thoughts?

not a big play, just doing what my system says. starters could get hit fairly hard. Minny is actually the worse offense int he game, by a long shot with everyone but danny santana and arcia hitting 15%+ below average vs righties. bullpens are fresh, and twins ballpark doesn't give up too many homers to lefties (12 lefties are starting today). as usual, ump is a big factor, and hudson ranks as a top 15 under ump.

**No coincidences** · 08-06-14, 12:08 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

not a big play, just doing what my system says. starters could get hit fairly hard. Minny is actually the worse offense int he game, by a long shot (posting more in a sec, just getting this out there)

Agree with that. I think the Pads are a better bet than the total. Their "good" numbers are long gone, though. I'd need a +105 or better to play.

**EXhoosier10** · 08-06-14, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Agree with that. I think the Pads are a better bet than the total. Their "good" numbers are long gone, though. I'd need a +115 or better to play.

oh man. I got on SD at +105 when I woke up for a small play. didn't see the late move to -110ish

**No coincidences** · 08-06-14, 12:28 PM

I'd say the other shoe has dropped on this Despaigne bum.

Where are all of his defenders now?

**No coincidences** · 08-06-14, 12:30 PM

TB +1.5 -115 (2.3U to win 2)

**RollinDo** · 08-06-14, 12:32 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I'd say the other shoe has dropped on this Despaigne bum.

Where are all of his defenders now?

I have seen this guy as much as any other this year (like 6 innings now) and if there are worse pitchers out there, let me know.

**EXhoosier10** · 08-06-14, 12:32 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I'd say the other shoe has dropped on this Despaigne bum.

Where are all of his defenders now?

first time i've seen him and his pitches all have a lot of late movement, but EVERYTHING is up. guy hasn't thrown at the knees all game.

**No coincidences** · 08-06-14, 12:38 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

first time i've seen him and his pitches all have a lot of late movement, but EVERYTHING is up. guy hasn't thrown at the knees all game.

His advanced stats are awful, and he basically walks as many guys as he K's.

The posters who were talking about how great this guy was when he first came up should be embarrassed.

**EXhoosier10** · 08-06-14, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

His advanced stats are awful, and he basically walks as many guys as he K's.

The posters who were talking about how great this guy was when he first came up should be embarrassed.

terribly small sample, but IMO if this guy could ever figure out a release point and get consistent locations, he could be serviceable. At least better than Eric Stults

**No coincidences** · 08-06-14, 12:51 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

terribly small sample, but IMO if this guy could ever figure out a release point and get consistent locations, he could be serviceable. At least better than Eric Stults

That's basically what people were saying about El Duque throughout his whole career. Not that he was bad, but people think a funky motion and odd speeds = some sort of ace.

**EXhoosier10** · 08-06-14, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

That's basically what people were saying about El Duque throughout his whole career. Not that he was bad, but people think a funky motion and odd speeds = some sort of ace.

Not so much saying he'll be an ace, but he should get squared up a lot less than he is now if he just stop throwing his 80mph belt high. Even if he doesn't K a bunch of people, the late movemnt should induce weaker contact; I haven't seen him throw spinners, he's just wild.

**leetreaper** · 08-06-14, 01:35 PM

So the guy allows a 2 run homer the whole game and now he's bad???

Obviosuly he was bound to regress but as EX already mentioned he's got potential.

**EXhoosier10** · 08-06-14, 01:50 PM

coin, what do you see in hellickson? i lean over because of him, but am considering oak TTo4

**turbozed** · 08-06-14, 02:17 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

coin, what do you see in hellickson? i lean over because of him, but am considering oak TTo4

I know you asked coin but I was just looking at this game and here's what stands out. Looks like he's exactly the type of pitcher that the A's lineup likes to face. Gives up a lot of walks with a 3.29 BB/9 and average strikeouts at 7 K/9. He's a fly ball pitcher with only 30% ground ball ratio. Also, 0% IFFB means that these fly balls are getting to the outfield. A's are usually weak against good GB pitchers. A's MO is walks and HRs (which they've been slumping on lately) but they've been loading the bases lately and just not coming up with clutch hits.

I have A's at the runline but maybe will throw some on the TT as well. They have Coco Crisp in the lineup which has already paid dividends. But their power hitters Norris, Moss, Donaldson are in a slump. Also, due to injuries, Sam Fuld and Eric Sogard are in the lineup which are weaker offensive options.

Good luck dude.

**EXhoosier10** · 08-06-14, 02:49 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

I know you asked coin but I was just looking at this game and here's what stands out. Looks like he's exactly the type of pitcher that the A's lineup likes to face. Gives up a lot of walks with a 3.29 BB/9 and average strikeouts at 7 K/9. He's a fly ball pitcher with only 30% ground ball ratio. Also, 0% IFFB means that these fly balls are getting to the outfield. A's are usually weak against good GB pitchers. A's MO is walks and HRs (which they've been slumping on lately) but they've been loading the bases lately and just not coming up with clutch hits.

I have A's at the runline but maybe will throw some on the TT as well. They have Coco Crisp in the lineup which has already paid dividends. But their power hitters Norris, Moss, Donaldson are in a slump. Also, due to injuries, Sam Fuld and Eric Sogard are in the lineup which are weaker offensive options.

Good luck dude.

Firstly,
1, you're quoting hellickson's 2014 stats, which are from 2 starts. quoting the stats you are is meaningless.
2. re: A's are weak against GB pitchers -- you're a bit off base, actually (sub. required) http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=22435

anyway, appreciate your thoughts

**turbozed** · 08-06-14, 03:16 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

Firstly,
1, you're quoting hellickson's 2014 stats, which are from 2 starts. quoting the stats you are is meaningless.
2. re: A's are weak against GB pitchers -- you're a bit off base, actually (sub. required) http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=22435

anyway, appreciate your thoughts

Thanks for the correction. Sub is required, but I'm just eyeballing from watching a lot of A's games this season. What's your take or the article's take on it?

**EXhoosier10** · 08-06-14, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

Thanks for the correction. Sub is required, but I'm just eyeballing from watching a lot of A's games this season. What's your take or the article's take on it?

found a free version

http://regressing.deadspin.com/a-decade-after-moneyball-have-the-as-found-a-new-mark-1489963694

**turbozed** · 08-06-14, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

found a free version
http://regressing.deadspin.com/a-dec...ark-1489963694

Thanks a lot for finding this.

While this proves that A's aren't hitting ground balls as much as the league, this also seems to confirm that A's would prefer to go against fly ball pitchers.

Doesn't seem to be helping them much in this game though. Good luck on the TT O4