MLB - Situation Plays - SDQL

**JMon** · 04-23-14, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by green7

AD and day!= Saturday and day!= Sunday and SG=3 and month=4 and C and season>2008

The only time this hasn't worked well is when a team is off 2 consecutive away wins, which would filter out Texas, Houston, and the Phillies.

Biggest day of the season for me.

Good fortune.

I have something similar to this.. FYI teams winning over .500 do not perform well in this situation. WP<=50. Nice find green

**Mako-SBR** · 04-23-14, 02:30 PM

Originally posted by green7

AD and day!= Saturday and day!= Sunday and SG=3 and month=4 and C and season>2008

The only time this hasn't worked well is when a team is off 2 consecutive away wins, which would filter out Texas, Houston, and the Phillies.

Biggest day of the season for me.

Good fortune.

Very nice green, thanks buddy.

Here it is with your exclusion of 2 consecutive away wins removed, someone check it to make sure it's right lol:

AD and day!= Saturday and day!= Sunday and SG=3 and month=4 and C and season>2008 and ((p:AL and pp:AW) or (p:AW and pp:AL) or (p:AL and pp:AL))

94-64 (0.08, 59.5%)	avg line: 133.9 / -146.0	on / against: +$6,170 / -$7,303	ROI: +39.0% / -31.6%
114-44 (1.56, 72.2%)	avg line: -162.6 / 149.8	on / against: +$4,399 / -$4,953	ROI: +17.1% / -31.2%
73-80-5 (-0.03, 47.7%)	avg total: 8.4	over / under: -$1,240 / -$35	ROI: -7.2% / -0.2%

**green7** · 04-23-14, 06:14 PM

Nice filter JMon

Filtering out the >500 teams......not often you see a ROI of 49% on such a big sample.

Let's see if the angle continues. I'm playing them all.

**green7** · 04-23-14, 06:30 PM

Talking of filters....a counter-intuitive filter, similar to taking a losing team rather than a winning team, is that the results of the query below shows better results for a team with the WORSE bullpen, not the better one.

AD and day!=Saturday and day!=Sunday and DIV and p:W and tA(BPRA)>oA(BPRA)

AD and day!= Saturday and day!= Sunday
and DIV and p:W and tA(BPRA) < oA(BPRA)

This is also similar to NFL football where turnover margin is counter intuitive...in other words the better turnover margin team shows worse results than the opposite.

**JR007** · 04-23-14, 06:58 PM

getaway day tomorrow

**Roadkill86** · 04-23-14, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by green7

Talking of filters....a counter-intuitive filter, similar to taking a losing team rather than a winning team, is that the results of the query below shows better results for a team with the WORSE bullpen, not the better one.

AD and day!=Saturday and day!=Sunday and DIV and p:W and tA(BPRA)>oA(BPRA)

AD and day!= Saturday and day!= Sunday
and DIV and p:W and tA(BPRA) < oA(BPRA)

This is also similar to NFL football where turnover margin is counter intuitive...in other words the better turnover margin team shows worse results than the opposite.

But over the past three seasons, that filter shows a negative ROI.

**Roadkill86** · 04-23-14, 08:33 PM

team=Mets and start time<1500 and site=home and p:strike outs>9 and o:WP>50
team=Cardinals and starter=Lance Lynn and site=away and po:strike outs>6

**Rous** · 04-23-14, 10:06 PM

dont you have to pay money to save trends on the site????? Am I missing something?

**figue** · 04-23-14, 11:15 PM

3-1 today ,time to filter the query,no play on +110 line (from KS site show it ) 6-9 ,angels loser was +110 line today.

**green7** · 04-23-14, 11:43 PM

Your query Figue

You could filter out non-conference games as well Figue, as I have them at 2-4 so far this season.

Otherwise you've been kickin' butt with this....I see your ass only in the far off distance in the MLB contest....

**figue** · 04-23-14, 11:48 PM

Originally posted by green7

You could filter out non-conference games as well Figue, as I have them at 2-4 so far this season.

Otherwise you've been kickin' butt with this....I see your ass only in the far off distance in the MLB contest....

thanks green ,good filter

**figue** · 04-23-14, 11:55 PM

Originally posted by green7

You could filter out non-conference games as well Figue, as I have them at 2-4 so far this season.

Otherwise you've been kickin' butt with this....I see your ass only in the far off distance in the MLB contest....

o:run line>170 and line>100 and season=2014 and month=4 and not C

show 2-2 with today result ,stiil profit. im wrong ??

**green7** · 04-24-14, 12:39 AM

Roadkill

We welcome critical analysis in this thread....however there were three different filters mentioned in the above thread....1) the under 500 filter 2) the worse bullpen filter 3) a mention was made of a football turnover analogy.

Which specific one are you referring to?

Someone else mentioned in a comment a few pages back that away divisional dogs hadn't done too well the past 2-3 years, which when went into query analysis broken down by year showed the commentor to be correct. In MLB, there are certain months that are dog months with April usually being very good for them...and June being terrible....it is cyclic within the year, or perhaps with the moon phases I don't know. And before you laugh at that there was a trader from the 30s, William Gann who made millions in the market and he put a great deal of credence in what phase the moon was.

There has been a lessening of results the past three years....additional filters can be used to bring about better ROIs.....using teams off a win and playing games with a game time temperature of less than 85 degrees Fahrenheit ups the ROI quite a bit....you could use different months as filters,...or of course you may choose to think the whole premise of divisional dogs as a play has reached it's use-by date that the linemaker has been made aware of and who has adjusted his lines accordingly.

828-944 (-0.19, 46.7%)	avg line: 140.5 / -154.4	on / against: +$19,051 / -$29,990	ROI: +10.7% / -11.0%
751-463 (1.17, 61.9%)	avg line: -157.7 / 142.7	on / against: +$4,320 / -$10,773	ROI: +2.2% / -8.7%
799-882-86 (0.34, 47.5%)	avg total: 8.6	over / under: -$16,295 / -$150	ROI: -8.4% / -0.1%

We are here to help each other in the nicest way possible and cheer those that do well, and of course learn from those that are looking at things in a different way than what we are...this is not about one-upmanship or ego...anyone who has done this long enough will have been humbled by our market numerous times. If you decide to be a part of this and contribute in a positive way....good on ya.

**Roadkill86** · 04-24-14, 06:53 AM

Originally posted by green7

We welcome critical analysis in this thread....however there were three different filters mentioned in the above thread....1) the under 500 filter 2) the worse bullpen filter 3) a mention was made of a football turnover analogy.

Which specific one are you referring to?

My apologies as I wasn't trying to troll or be vague... The filter I left in my quote, the bullpen ERA one, was what I was referencing;
AD and day!=Saturday and day!=Sunday and DIV and p:W and tA(BPRA)>oA(BPRA) and season>2011

**green7** · 04-24-14, 07:36 AM

Well, no worries then,....next time I'm in Yolo I'll hoist one with you....

**JMon** · 04-24-14, 07:38 AM

After watching the Tor/Balt game and the multitude of HRs, this popped in my head for a total play. Perhaps something to build off as well.

p:HR+po:HR>=7 and 11>=total>=9.5 and conference=o:conference and SG>1 and H

**JMon** · 04-24-14, 07:50 AM

team=Rays and H and line<=-140 and p:L and p:walks>=5 and SG>1

**Roadkill86** · 04-24-14, 11:35 AM

Speaking of the Blue Jays...

15 < p : hits < 22 and p : runs < 10 and HF and season > 2010

**JMon** · 04-24-14, 02:21 PM

tA(double plays)>=1.1 and 125>=line>=-130 and p:runs>=10 and 2006<=season

Here we are playing any team that averages more than or 1.1 double plays a game, with a line of 125>=line>=-130 and after scoring 10 or more runs.

**Alex Vaile** · 04-24-14, 02:32 PM

Does that indicate a play on the Orioles who scored the 10 runs or the Jays? Play on the team to me means historical trends indicate to play the Jays?

**Alex Vaile** · 04-24-14, 02:37 PM

Where do u enter these queries? Where would I gain access to a sdql database?

**JMon** · 04-24-14, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

Where do u enter these queries? Where would I gain access to a sdql database?

just google sdql

not allowed to post sites

**JMon** · 04-24-14, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

Does that indicate a play on the Orioles who scored the 10 runs or the Jays? Play on the team to me means historical trends indicate to play the Jays?

My query was on Balt, Roadkills on Tor.

**JMon** · 04-24-14, 02:58 PM

Looking at starting pitchers for the Mets and Indians,

H and -130<=line<=180 and sA(SHA)>=7 and month=4 and 2005<=season and conference=o:conference and total<10

**JMon** · 04-24-14, 03:11 PM

H and 4.8>=tA(runs)>=4.3 and 5.2>=(o:STDSERA)>=4.2 and o:conference=NL and 4.2>=(STDSERA)>=3.7 and conference=NL and 2007<=season and SG<4

**Alex Vaile** · 04-24-14, 03:11 PM

Ok I will Google it thank u JMON

**Alex Vaile** · 04-24-14, 03:56 PM

I was able to get the info from your above trend on Baltimore. It lists the straight up record on it as
tA(double plays) >= 1.1 and 125 >= line >= -130 and p:runs >= 10 and 2006 <= season
SU: 88-52 (0.76, 62.9%) avg line: -101.7 / -108.3 on / against: +$3,712 / -$4,413 ROI: +24.5% / -28.2%
RL: 67-42 (0.89, 61.5%) avg line: -115.1 / 100.5 on / against: +$2,477 / -$3,032 ROI: +16.3% / -21.2%
OU: 65-70-5 (0.45, 48.1%) avg total: 9.0 over / under: -$1,130 / -$50 ROI: -7.3% / -0.3%
So is that saying Baltimore in this situation based on data is winning the 88 and 52 record or losing?
That's a pretty good percentage. Sorry I just am starting to learn to read these trends. Thanks for explaining in advance!

**figue** · 04-24-14, 10:52 PM

31-15 (0.87, 67.4%)	avg line: 108.7 / -118.7	on / against: +$1,876 / -$2,186	ROI: +40.8% / -40.0%
38-8 (2.37, 82.6%)	avg line: -198.7 / 182.0	on / against: +$2,203 / -$2,336	ROI: +24.1% / -50.8%

1-0 yankees.

**Emancipator** · 04-25-14, 10:07 AM

Could someone run this for me? I want to know what happens when the starting pitcher gets 9/10 strikeouts or more in his previous start and his team wins the game.

**Emancipator** · 04-25-14, 11:24 AM

209-200 (0.12, 51.1%)	avg line: -135.6 / 124.6	on / against: -$5,418 / +$3,306	ROI: -9.8% / +8.1%
132-227 (-1.23, 36.8%)	avg line: 123.9 / -136.3	on / against: -$6,972 / +$5,222	ROI: -18.7% / +10.5%

Fade a team where the starting pitcher is an away favorite, and won his last outing while striking out 10 or more batters.

Apr 25, 2014

Fri

away

Tigers

Rick Porcello - R

Twins

Kevin Correia - R

-125

8.5

**Emancipator** · 04-25-14, 12:34 PM

n/a

**JR007** · 04-25-14, 12:55 PM

found this in a newsletter that went to press earlier this week, maybe something that you guys can use... Clev, Ariz, TB, Hou 4-22 vs lefthanded pitchers so far this season

**JMon** · 04-25-14, 01:16 PM

Originally posted by Emancipator

209-200 (0.12, 51.1%)	avg line: -135.6 / 124.6	on / against: -$5,418 / +$3,306	ROI: -9.8% / +8.1%
132-227 (-1.23, 36.8%)	avg line: 123.9 / -136.3	on / against: -$6,972 / +$5,222	ROI: -18.7% / +10.5%

Fade a team where the starting pitcher is an away favorite, and won his last outing while striking out 10 or more batters.

Apr 25, 2014

Fri

away

Tigers

Rick Porcello - R

Twins

Kevin Correia - R

-125

8.5

played around with one a bit...never a losing season in DB..nice find!

s:SO > 9 and s:W and A and season > 2005 and -185 <= line <= -110 and conference = o:conference and starter rest < 10 and rest = 0 and SG<3 and month<9 and 10>=total>=7.5

**JMon** · 04-25-14, 01:32 PM

10>=total>=8.5 and Sum(hits@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)<=265 and o:STDSERA<=3.5 and o:conference=AL and s:SWA>=4 and ss:SWA>=4 and 20100828<=date

**Emancipator** · 04-25-14, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by JMon

played around with one a bit...never a losing season in DB..nice find!

s:SO > 9 and s:W and A and season > 2005 and -185 <= line <= -110 and conference = o:conference and starter rest < 10 and rest = 0 and SG<3 and month<9 and 10>=total>=7.5

Thanks, what is a good reference for learning the language that took like 45 minutes to figure out, lol.