MLB - Situation Plays - SDQL

[JMon]

I had the Astros thanks to bignick's earlier query, winning on a dog with those odds is like hitting the lotto...wow.

Passed on the Nationals game despite it being in the same div (which is stronger for ROI), just didn't like it.

Mako you have any good ones to throw out?

[JMon]

Yovani Gallardo is due to take the mound for the Brew Crew this Saturday at home, as is Edinson Volquez... The result has always been a slugfest when these two match-up;
starter=Edinson Volquez and o:starter=Yovani Gallardo

I'd interested in seeing what the line is going to be now that Volquez is with the Padres.

[JMon]

179 > line >= -102 and -11 < p:margin < 3 and o:WP >= 39 and 9 > p:runs > 0 and month = 4 and p:runs != 5 and day != Saturday and WP<79


check out this overfit:

line >= -102 and p:margin < 3 and o:WP >= 39 and p:runs > 0 and p:runs < 9 and month = 4 and p:runs != 5 and p:margin > -11 and day != Saturday and line < 179 and p:SO>1 and start time<2240 and 18 > p:fly balls >1 and 32>p:LOB>3 and p:walks<10 and WP<79 and p:BPRA != 1

thoughts?

I have a version of this April dog. One can't argue with the results.

[green7]

I have a version of this April dog. One can't argue with the results.

Nice find guys....one caveat....with a very small sample size, the non-conference part of this is 0-5, which in the Mets game. Best of luck.

[busterzdad]

This one is for April Only

DIV and D and p:W and 40<o:WP< 50 and season>=2010 and line<=166 and month=4

SU: 28-16 (0.39, 63.6%)

Greetings. Brand new here and new to SDQL queries too, though I know about killer sports and have salivated at the prospect of being able to mine that data. Going to just lurk and hope I catch on by osmosis. Will take advice from later in this thread to look more closely at the tutorial.

However, 1) not sure the tutorial in how to make a query then tells how to read the output from a successful query. It's not self-explanatory, that I can see. And, 2) for instance figue's "and D and", D is not defined in the cheat notes at bottom of killersports MLB SDQL query page. Is D a shorter alternate for "DAY"? that was the closest thing I can find.

Thanks a million. Seems like you all are cool and doing great stuff.

[figue]

Greetings. Brand new here and new to SDQL queries too, though I know about killer sports and have salivated at the prospect of being able to mine that data. Going to just lurk and hope I catch on by osmosis. Will take advice from later in this thread to look more closely at the tutorial.

However, 1) not sure the tutorial in how to make a query then tells how to read the output from a successful query. It's not self-explanatory, that I can see. And, 2) for instance figue's "and D and", D is not defined in the cheat notes at bottom of killersports MLB SDQL query page. Is D a shorter alternate for "DAY"? that was the closest thing I can find.

Thanks a million. Seems like you all are cool and doing great stuff.

letter short cuts
Single letter short cuts are great because
you can easily combine them and you
only need to specify the prefix once. H,
A, W, L, F, D, O, U, C, X are allowed
short cuts for
home,away,win,loss,favorite,dog,over the
total,under the total, a same-conference
game, and extra innings. As with the
parameter prefixes, these can be strung
together without limit.

[JMon]

Fav play, possible RL (not a fan of home RL unless the case presents itself. We want to fade dogs of 125-175 with season to date poor batting average against a good NL starter. Note how the cubs do in general, but also on the road and against their oppt...o:team=Cardinals.

175>=line>=125 and Sum(hits@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)<=.250 and os:starter era<=3.7 and o:conference=NL and Average(starter hits@starter and season)<=5.5 and 2008<=season

[JMon]

Miners...look up how the Rangers do after a loss and are home fav of <=-150 in the first game of a series (FGS). See how Darvish does in this role since 2012!

[bignick410]

Fav play, possible RL (not a fan of home RL unless the case presents itself. We want to fade dogs of 125-175 with season to date poor batting average against a good NL starter. Note how the cubs do in general, but also on the road and against their oppt...o:team=Cardinals.

175>=line>=125 and Sum(hits@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)<=.250 and os:starter era<=3.7 and o:conference=NL and Average(starter hits@starter and season)<=5.5 and 2008<=season

NICE! already had that from a different one good find

[bignick410]

and wow some nice stuff there on the rangers

28-8 (3.11, 77.8%) avg line: -197.3 / 175.6 on / against: +$1,190 / -$1,385 ROI: +16.8% / -38.5% 20-8 (2.39, 71.4%) avg line: 106.2 / -116.3 on / against: +$1,418 / -$1,565 ROI: +47.8% / -46.4% 21-13-2 (2.93, 61.8%) avg total: 9.6 over / under: +$655 / -$1,015 ROI: +16.5% / -25.8%

and with Yu pithing

6-1 (3.57, 85.7%) avg line: -220.0 / 189.4 on / against: +$380 / -$410 ROI: +24.8% / -58.6% 6-1 (2.07, 85.7%) avg line: -101.8 / -107.4 on / against: +$531 / -$568 ROI: +71.7% / -72.9% 2-5-0 (-0.86, 28.6%) avg total: 8.7 over / under: -$350 / +$300 ROI: -44.3% / +40.0%

[JMon]

This is NOT a play, rather way to show how I work with sdql in MLB. We all know we look for predictive value in sdql, but I also look for past results that have exact or similar circumstances with the present.

series game=1 and p:W and op:L and AD and conference=o:conference and team=Rockies and o:team=Giants

look at the line, the total and pitchers (past and present).

[bignick410]

I had just been playing around with the p:L and HF and line<=-150 and FGS
and I came up with this just now and be played as ether RL or ML has 3 play today already have the cards like I said earlier BOL everyone

243-106 (1.68, 69.6%) avg line: -183.6 / 166.2 on / against: +$5,506 / -$7,161 ROI: +8.6% / -20.5% 135-119 (0.44, 53.1%) avg line: 120.7 / -132.6 on / against: +$4,403 / -$5,954 ROI: +17.0% / -17.6% 156-176-16 (0.52, 47.0%) avg total: 8.5 over / under: -$3,565 / +$370 ROI: -9.4% / +1.0%

[JMon]

and wow some nice stuff there on the rangers

28-8 (3.11, 77.8%) avg line: -197.3 / 175.6 on / against: +$1,190 / -$1,385 ROI: +16.8% / -38.5% 20-8 (2.39, 71.4%) avg line: 106.2 / -116.3 on / against: +$1,418 / -$1,565 ROI: +47.8% / -46.4% 21-13-2 (2.93, 61.8%) avg total: 9.6 over / under: +$655 / -$1,015 ROI: +16.5% / -25.8%

and with Yu pithing

6-1 (3.57, 85.7%) avg line: -220.0 / 189.4 on / against: +$380 / -$410 ROI: +24.8% / -58.6% 6-1 (2.07, 85.7%) avg line: -101.8 / -107.4 on / against: +$531 / -$568 ROI: +71.7% / -72.9% 2-5-0 (-0.86, 28.6%) avg total: 8.7 over / under: -$350 / +$300 ROI: -44.3% / +40.0%

Nice....but not worth it for me....just found a contradiciton. No play on TEX for me.

Sum(o: points > points@team and season,N=8) >= 6 and line >= 100 and month=4

[bignick410]

Nice....but not worth it for me....just found a contradiciton. No play on TEX for me.

Sum(o: points > points@team and season,N=8) >= 6 and line >= 100 and month=4

Yea I'm not the advocating blindly betting on something just cause u may have found a query but I didn't play TEX ending up adding SF and SEA though other then those my card is pretty light tonight

[JMon]

Not going to mess around with this situation as it's hit year after year. I'll ask BN to explain it as I am due on time. BBQ to do. Rather easy to do and one of my prize collections. Just look how Clev does in this situations, most importantly against the south siders and the ol' mighty Sale...

195>line > 105 and line < 200 and division = o:division and op:WP < 47 and season > 2002 and month !=8

[nash13]

i have listed the plays from the queries before. i mentioned them as 3 star and 2 star. baseball is doing awesome for me. 20% zield is just unreal.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OzPC3WmCK6UgZVY-aLaoSkH3L9VjaAKa5Rtqky7OY4w/edit#gid=0

[JMon]

i have listed the plays from the queries before. i mentioned them as 3 star and 2 star. baseball is doing awesome for me. 20% zield is just unreal.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...Y4w/edit#gid=0

Very nice start for all us sdql users for sure . I have made more money in NBA and the start of MBL than I have ever have.

Be diligent, going forward is the key!!! I can not stress money management and flat betting enough.

[green7]

Saturday April query

p:AL and A and SG=2 and day=Saturday and DIV and month=4

SU: 58-101 (-0.89, 36.5%)
avg line: 114.9 / -126.3
on / against: -$4,012 / +$3,292
ROI: -23.1% / +15.6%
RL: 46-53 (-0.10, 46.5%)
avg line: -139.7 / 124.4
on / against: -$2,771 / +$2,087
ROI: -18.7% / +18.8%
OU:74-70-14 (0.22, 51.4%)
avg total: 8.8 over / under: -$215 / -$1,190
ROI: -1.2% / -6.8%

[nash13]

I foudn this idea on another forum. can someone query this?

Look at last 10 games of MLB teams, add up the total runs that each team has gone Over (add 1) and Under (subtract 1) the game book line total, and play OVER on games where the total of both teams totals are 40 runs over the book lines, and each team is at least at +10 over the book lines.

[pwangsta]

Hi peeps!

Hi everyone! I've read through both this thread and the NBA SDQL one over the last week, and have successfully had 6 positive days in a row. Just wanted to express my gratitude to everyone who's contributed to both threads, and hopefully add something of my own.

I like to use the queries as a baseline and then filter them based on my own capping, and I was looking at the Tigers/Padres matchup earlier when I started wondering if NL teams might be undervalued when facing AL teams at home since they are used to not having a DH. A few refinements later, I came up with this query:

league=NL and o:league=AL and H and oA(runs)>tA(runs) and STDSERA<=4 and D and month!=(7 or 8) and o:STDSERA<=4

The logic is that NL teams are undervalued at home against AL teams, especially when both teams have good starters on the mound. I cut out July and August since they are generally better for favorites, and the results look pretty good. Good luck!

Oh, btw, the Reds/Rays game from earlier today was a win also, although of course 1 game won't change the stats that much.

[figue]

i m looking the days when there are 2 o more games on the same day with -200 favorites,any sdql for that ??..thanks.

[JMon]

i m looking the days when there are 2 o more games on the same day with -200 favorites,any sdql for that ??..thanks.

not sure what you are completely after fig, but line<=-200 will get you favs of 200 or more and you can use the parameter 'day' to see where they hit the best.

[JMon]

good work pw

[JMon]

H and 10 >= total >= 8 and po:runs <= 4 and ppo:runs <= 4 and pppo:runs < 4 and op:L and op:margin = -1 and 2010<=season and rest = 0 and month!=8

total play on the crew!

[SlaytheBook]

Nice looking formula and best of luck. Does that translate to Brewers over?

[JMon]

Look to see how the Reds do when trying to avoid a three game sweep at home since '07. Also look how they do as a favorite in the same situation.

H and p:L and pp:L and SG=SGS=SG=3 and team=Reds and 2007<=season

[JMon]

Nice looking formula and best of luck. Does that translate to Brewers over?

gl if anyone plays it.

78-67 (0.21, 53.8%)	avg line: -136.3 / 123.4	on / against: -$913 / +$175	ROI: -4.4% / +1.1%
61-84 (-0.44, 42.1%)	avg line: 116.9 / -129.2	on / against: -$1,714 / +$1,061	ROI: -10.5% / +5.3%
38-90-17 (-0.88, 29.7%)	avg total: 8.6	over / under: -$6,000 / +$4,815	ROI: -37.9% / +30.0%

[JMon]

Contrarian to say the least; looking for a home fav of <=-110 whom averages less than <=.9 Hrs a game off b2b homerless games; against a starter who gives up .5 or less Hrs a game.

H and line<=-110 and tA(HR)<=.9 and p:HR=0 and pp:HR=0 and osA(SHRA)<=.5 and 2009<=season

[JR007]

thanks guys

[JMon]

Want to play against a conference AL road team ave 4.7 runs or less a game off two losses of 4 or more. Look how team=Royals do in this situation.

A and 165>=line>=-125 and tA(runs)<=4.7 and conference=AL and p:margin<=-4 and pp:margin<=-4 and rest=0 and (SG=1 or SG=3) and conference=o:conference and month<9

[JR007]

question, if you see adverse wind conditions on a particular total, say the trend calls for an over when the wind is blowing in at a particular stadium.....would you consider it a no play ???? thanks

[JMon]

question, if you see adverse wind conditions on a particular total, say the trend calls for an over when the wind is blowing in at a particular stadium.....would you consider it a no play ???? thanks

I guess it depends on how well the situation had done in the past with a similar wind conditions. It appears to be more of a personal preference regarding a play or not.

[JMon]

H and 10 >= total >= 8 and po:runs <= 4 and ppo:runs <= 4 and pppo:runs < 4 and op:L and op:margin = -1 and 2010<=season and rest = 0 and month!=8

total play on the crew!

Look to see how the Reds do when trying to avoid a three game sweep at home since '07. Also look how they do as a favorite in the same situation.

H and p:L and pp:L and SG=SGS=SG=3 and team=Reds and 2007<=season

[JMon]

Contrarian to say the least; looking for a home fav of <=-110 whom averages less than <=.9 Hrs a game off b2b homerless games; against a starter who gives up .5 or less Hrs a game.

H and line<=-110 and tA(HR)<=.9 and p:HR=0 and pp:HR=0 and osA(SHRA)<=.5 and 2009<=season

[MarcM_Flynn]

what website do you get your stats from