MLB - Situation Plays - SDQL

[JMon]

Nationals revenge?

What we are looking for is a home dog >130 on triple revenge (season or past) in a non divisional game. While only going 7-10 last year; it still profited. gl

P:L and PP:L and PPP:L and H and line > 130 and division != o:division and 12 > total > 6 and (SG = 1 or SG = 3) and rest = 0

[emceeaye]

I like your approach of thinking about the intuitive value of the prediction created by the query in order to qualify it. In fact it seems to me that if we don't consider both perpectives the logic as well as if the rationale makes sense intuitively), then we won't do as well in the long run.

It turns out that the above query favoring the Astros applied predominantly to situations in which the away team was the underdog and not the favorite as is the case for the Royals in today's game. Since the Royals are the AF, the query results dont apply well, and are therefore misleading. This is an example of a sample size that's too small--if it was substantial enough, we would have enough examples of situations in which the Royals are the AF to obtain a valid and reliable result.

I would google "trend analysis" as one would see in investment/stock reason. Much of what sdql users do is exactly what trend analysis is; using past results to predict future outcomes. Perhaps no rhythm or reason, things trend; either short, intermediate or long. Finding a trend before it trends and stopping before it regresses it what is problematic and certainly takes an eye of practice to see. Thus becomes second nature if practiced enough. For example, on the trend you posted above, if you followed and won three times in the start of 2013, then lost two times; would it be wise to monitor the trend before playing it again? Your investment has paid off going 3-2. If it continues to lose...move on.

Other sdql users use it merely on logic, and pay no attention to trending situations as what you posted. It's a personal preference. I use both and have success at both.

[JMon]

I like your approach of thinking about the intuitive value of the prediction created by the query in order to qualify it. In fact it seems to me that if we don't consider both perpectives the logic as well as if the rationale makes sense intuitively), then we won't do as well in the long run.

It turns out that the above query favoring the Astros applied predominantly to situations in which the away team was the underdog and not the favorite as is the case for the Royals in today's game. Since the Royals are the AF, the query results dont apply well, and are therefore misleading. This is an example of a sample size that's too small--if it was substantial enough, we would have enough examples of situations in which the Royals are the AF to obtain a valid and reliable result.

very good analysis..while my situations are saved and become active when it applies..most of my research (especially on open ended situations) I see how the team does in general; and how they do, within, as a F or D, conference, DIV, interleague, against the opposing team, starter used, similarity to the line/total..etc. ML sdql is much different than ATS on how to approach things (due to the number of games) at least for me.

[emceeaye]

team = Royals and date>=20100709 and H and p:site streak<=-6 and p:W and rest=0

[Tillos]

For Apr 18th

team=Red Sox and p:AW and pp:AW and H and NGT and season>=2010

team=Rangers and p:HW and pp:W and H and NGT and total>9.5 and season>=2011
(^ Line movement is heavily in favor^)

WP>51 and p:HW and p:runs>8 and A and op:AW and total>8 and total<10

[figue]

o:run line>170 and line>100 and season=2014 and month=4

3-0 yesterday
today reds,mariners,brewers,angels

18-10 (0.57, 64.3%)

avg line: 109.5 / -119.5

on / against: +$988 / -$1,168

ROI: +35.3% / -34.8%

[emceeaye]

Figue and Jmon,

Can you remind me why or why not to bet the RL for this query? Is it because juice is too high, or is it because N is too low and needs to be higher to be reliable when using RL?

Thanks in advance.

o:run line>170 and line>100 and season=2014 and month=4

3-0 yesterday
today reds,mariners,brewers,angels

18-10 (0.57, 64.3%)

avg line: 109.5 / -119.5

on / against: +$988 / -$1,168

ROI: +35.3% / -34.8%

[figue]

o:run line>170 and line>100 and season=2014 and month=4

3-0 yesterday
today reds,mariners,brewers,angels

18-10 (0.57, 64.3%)

avg line: 109.5 / -119.5

on / against: +$988 / -$1,168

ROI: +35.3% / -34.8%

under look good here...

10-18-0 (-0.64, 35.7%)

avg total: 7.6

over / under: -$940 / +$675

ROI: -31.2% / +21.4%

[emceeaye]

Thanks,

What about RL?

RL: 23-5 (2.07, 82.1%)

[figue]

Thanks,

What about RL?

RL: 23-5 (2.07, 82.1%)

yeah also good so far

[figue]

Figue and Jmon,

Can you remind me why or why not to bet the RL for this query? Is it because juice is too high, or is it because N is too low and needs to be higher to be reliable when using RL?

Thanks in advance.

yeah good numbers on the RL,we cant recommend play it juice is too high ,but still good returned so far.

[emceeaye]

This one is pretty compelling. When you add that the dbacks enter this game coming off a 6-game home losing streak and that their WP is less than 23% and that Dodgers' WP is 62%, then the N is too small to show the same effect. It can be assumed however that with a large anough N to incorporate the above specifics, the effect would be even stronger. But the one below seems like its good enough.

team=Diamondbacks and A and 163<=line and DIV and WP<=50 and o:WP>=50

[JMon]

Contrarian Doggie

160 >= line > 115 and STDSERA >= 6.7 and conference = AL and s:SRA >= 5 and ss:SRA >= 5 and SG < 3 and rest != 1 and month!= 5

play a AL dog with a starter of a 6.7 or more ERA on the season after giving up 5 runs or more B2B

[Tillos]

p:S5>5 and p:W and pp:W and o:WP<50 and line<115 and op:runs<3 and opp:runs<3 and season>=2012

[Tillos]

Thanks Jmon I like that one, think I'll play it if the cubs lose

[JMon]

Thanks Jmon I like that one, think I'll play it if the cubs lose

You on the cubbies? I playing them. I will be on it too for the price, prob .5 unit. I do have conflicting queries sides with the Rangers, not as strong.

[emceeaye]

this one seems good too

team=Angels and 20070701<=date and AD and conference = o:conference and p:margin=1 and p:runs<6 and p:IL<5

[Rons Hatchet]

Hello!

team = Mariners and p:SG = 4 and p:SGS = 4 and A

starter = Hiroki Kuroda and s:SIP > 6 and team = Yankees

[sunshine11]

Why not post the plays? For everyone who can't figure it out themselves. Including me. Thanks.

[JMon]

couple of totals to consider

total<=7 and Sum(hits@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)<=245 and conference=NL and (p:runs+po:runs)<=2 and 2011<=season

H and total<=7 and 9 * tS(o:earned runs - starter earned runs) / tS(9 - starter innings pitched) <= 3.75 and tA(walks)>=4 and 2010<=season and SG<4

[JMon]

team=Angels and 20070701<=date and AD and conference = o:conference and p:margin=1 and p:runs<6 and p:IL<5

Not active tonight, but wanted to see how Weaver/team did as a road dog of 110 or more facing a winning team. surprising results since 2009.

starter=Jered Weaver and A and o:WP>50 and line>=110 and 2009<=season

[JMon]

p:S5>5 and p:W and pp:W and o:WP<50 and line<115 and op:runs<3 and opp:runs<3 and season>=2012

Nice Tillos...notice series game 1 and 2 seem to not perform well and I played around with your query a bit.

p:S5>5 and p:W and pp:W and o:WP<50 and -135>=line and op:runs<3 and opp:runs<3 and SG>2 and 2008<=season

[k310]

team=Rays and H and SG=2 and p:L and p:line<=-145 and playoffs=0

[JMon]

o:run line>170 and line>100 and season=2014 and month=4

3-0 yesterday
today reds,mariners,brewers,angels

18-10 (0.57, 64.3%)

avg line: 109.5 / -119.5

on / against: +$988 / -$1,168

ROI: +35.3% / -34.8%

check this of a loss

[emceeaye]

Actually, it looks like it is in fact active for tonight.

team=Angels and 20070701<=date and AD and conference = o:conference and p:margin=1 and p:runs<6 and p:IL<5

Wow, the results of your query are surprising. I usually associate Jerod Weaver with success.

Not active tonight, but wanted to see how Weaver/team did as a road dog of 110 or more facing a winning team. surprising results since 2009.

starter=Jered Weaver and A and o:WP>50 and line>=110 and 2009<=season

[JMon]

team=Rays and H and SG=2 and p:L and p:line<=-145 and playoffs=0

noticed a lot of high favs in your sitatuation so I filtered -150 and below...not so good, but found a total play, perhaps..lol

team=Rays and H and SG=2 and p:L and p:line<=-145 and playoffs=0 and line>=-150

[k310]

noticed a lot of high favs in your sitatuation so I filtered -150 and below...not so good, but found a total play, perhaps..lol

team=Rays and H and SG=2 and p:L and p:line<=-145 and playoffs=0 and line>=-150

[JR007]

Why not post the plays? For everyone who can't figure it out themselves. Including me. Thanks.

copy and paste into the sdql database

[figue]

o:run line>170 and line>100 and season=2014 and month=4

3-0 yesterday
today reds,mariners,brewers,angels

18-10 (0.57, 64.3%)

avg line: 109.5 / -119.5

on / against: +$988 / -$1,168

ROI: +35.3% / -34.8%

3-1

[green7]

The Missing Link

No, I am not talking about Cro-Magnum man.....I entered the SDQL guys contest yesterday and I can't find it on the SBR site. There was a link to the contest previously, but now I don't see it.

Maybe I need glasses.

Would someone post it, or tell me how to access?

[Roadkill86]

team=Tigers and day=Saturday and site=home and season>2011 and p:L

parlay the Tigers with the under anyone?

[JMon]

team=Dodgers and HF and month=4 and DIV and o:STR and 20080423<=date

[JMon]

No, I am not talking about Cro-Magnum man.....I entered the SDQL guys contest yesterday and I can't find it on the SBR site. There was a link to the contest previously, but now I don't see it.

Maybe I need glasses.

Would someone post it, or tell me how to access?

click on "my contests" top right of screen

[JMon]

Look how AL home favs do after a big win shutout in series game 2 or 3.

HF and p:margin > 7 and op:runs = 0 and (SG=2 or SG=3) and conference = AL

[JMon]

Look good...

H and p:margin > 7 and op:runs = 0 and season > 2008 and WP < 60 and o:WP > 38.5 and rest = 0

like this one fig . doggies perform in this one very nicely, so I eliminated summer months. The situation doesn't do will in interleague play, so I eliminated those. As well as the first game of a series. I ran a "group by" and noticed margins of 3 and 4 need to be captured...... p:margin=7,6,5,4,3,2,1

H and p:margin >= 3 and op:runs = 0 and WP < 60 and o:WP > 38.5 and line > -230 and conference = o:conference and (month!=7 and month!=8) and 2008<=season and SG > 1

I did make reference in my database for the original query of p:margin>7, with my additions, for a "Hammer Play" 28-3 SU (with dogs being a remarkable 8 and freakin 1

Cheers

Here we go