MLB - Situation Plays - SDQL

**bignick410** · 04-07-14, 04:23 PM

Hey guys I had long day of work finally outta there ! anyway had time to find this little one with plays today

site = home and p :line < -105 and line < -105 and p :runs+2 < =po :runs and p :SG=3 and SG=1 and 2005 < =season

its another run line but has over 400 plays with a 18% roi. play on home favs after losing by 2 or more runs as favs in their last game which aslo was the last game of the series.

**JMon** · 04-07-14, 05:14 PM

Originally posted by green7

This one is not great as it only seems to work in June and April and not as good on Mondays. I played the two teams involved but as always, use your own discretion.

division=o:division and month and SG = 1 and p:runs<=3 and AD and DAY

These two are probably more statistically sound.

p:runs<=3 and division!= o:division and conference=o:conference and SG=1 and month=4 and op:runs<=3 and H and line<-120

p:runs<=3 and division!= o:division and conference=o:conference and SG=1 and month=4 and op:runs<=3 and H and line>=-120

Good fortune.

your thoughts on this 54% dog winner.

p:runs<=3 and division!= o:division and (SG=1 or SG=3) and op:runs<=3 and H and rest<3 and line>=105 and month!=8 and 2006<=season and 10>=total>=6.5

**JMon** · 04-07-14, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by bignick410

Hey guys I had long day of work finally outta there ! anyway had time to find this little one with plays today

site = home and p :line < -105 and line < -105 and p :runs+2 < =po :runs and p :SG=3 and SG=1 and 2005 < =season

its another run line but has over 400 plays with a 18% roi. play on home favs after losing by 2 or more runs as favs in their last game which aslo was the last game of the series.

This is really good looking play and sdql work. Haven't been much of a RL play, especially a home team that doesn't get the extra bat. It also baffles me that ave margin of defeat was less than 1.5 during the duration of this situation, but then noticed its steam came from last year!! Nice work with the sdql p:runs+2<=po:runs, friend! Something I will def play around with...nice find

**green7** · 04-07-14, 06:03 PM

Anything with greater than a 16% ROI, I am pretty interested in. The moneyline favorite angle has two plays today, with results being pretty equal in non-con and conference games. One of two makes a profit.

Good job guys finding some very good historical queries. I'll expect that the books will show us the money with these.

I didn't play it, but hope your SL/Reds total comes in for those that played it, as of now it is inching closer.

**JMon** · 04-07-14, 06:48 PM

Originally posted by green7

Anything with greater than a 16% ROI, I am pretty interested in. The moneyline favorite angle has two plays today, with results being pretty equal in non-con and conference games. One of two makes a profit.

Good job guys finding some very good historical queries. I'll expect that the books will show us the money with these.

I didn't play it, but hope your SL/Reds total comes in for those that played it, as of now it is inching closer.

Yes...I do believe while looking, line<-145 (break off and in my wright up was profitable), just Too busy right now to look otherwise.

**JMon** · 04-07-14, 06:58 PM

Originally posted by JR007

early on which approach is working best, the trends on the sides or the trends on the totals ??? thanks

sorry JR...not ignoring you. I have over 400 situations that I fumble threw every day for MLB, so it's difficult to respond in a timely manner. MLB is rather difficult (than another sport, personally) using sdql as the ML is in factor. It also takes the brain to adjust going from -110 sports to MLB. Anyway, there is no rhythm or reason for sides or totals early in the season. I use all, I am just having more luck with totals than sides at this point. Also keep in mind, I do not post all my plays here, just spot post. Just know what I do post here, is a play that I am on personally.

**JR007** · 04-07-14, 07:17 PM

Originally posted by JMon

sorry JR...not ignoring you. I have over 400 situations that I fumble threw every day for MLB, so it's difficult to respond in a timely manner. MLB is rather difficult (than another sport, personally) using sdql as the ML is in factor. It also takes the brain to adjust going from -110 sports to MLB. Anyway, there is no rhythm or reason for sides or totals early in the season. I use all, I am just having more luck with totals than sides at this point. Also keep in mind, I do not post all my plays here, just spot post. Just know what I do post here, is a play that I am on personally.

no need to apologize to me buddy, appreciate your efforts and all those whom post here,.who are willing to share,we are all here for the same reason......nice win on the Cards (over)

**JR007** · 04-07-14, 07:31 PM

anyone have any ideas on team totals and first fives ??? there is a prevailing thought that a edge can be found using these as the oddsmakers tend not to pay too much attention in comparison to game totals and moneylines....juice can kill you using those types of bets though

**JMon** · 04-07-14, 08:06 PM

JR...you a line reader/player?

**JMon** · 04-07-14, 09:05 PM

Originally posted by bignick410

Hey guys I had long day of work finally outta there ! anyway had time to find this little one with plays today

site = home and p :line < -105 and line < -105 and p :runs+2 < =po :runs and p :SG=3 and SG=1 and 2005 < =season

its another run line but has over 400 plays with a 18% roi. play on home favs after losing by 2 or more runs as favs in their last game which aslo was the last game of the series.

really nice work here. wished I would have seen it before I play texas.

Though, Why so many spaces?

**JR007** · 04-07-14, 09:12 PM

Originally posted by JMon

JR...you a line reader/player?

yes.....watched Lakerboy for years much ,respect for him, Paco as well, "that number' worked last nite on the Pelicans

**JMon** · 04-07-14, 09:27 PM

Originally posted by JR007

yes.....watched Lakerboy for years much ,respect for him, Paco as well, "that number' worked last nite on the Pelicans

With all due respect...have you track "line movement" plays for the last 5 years..solely? Aside "that number" do you see a predictive advantage on a particular line movement in the long run (thus 5 years). Steam or reverse line movement?

**JMon** · 04-07-14, 09:47 PM

SDQL MLB Parameters... (Basic parameters I use in MLB sdql to potentially increase value in a situation) Sdql abbreviations I will assume one knows; for opponent as well.

1. site
2. rest
3. SG
4. conference
5. conference!=o:conference (keep in mind the conference you are playing!!!!)
6. DIV
7. division!=o:division
8. month
9. total
10. day
11. DAY or NGT
12. season
13. team

**Roadkill86** · 04-07-14, 10:16 PM

"It's April, and your AL team that's been scuffling to put up runs early and is up against a division foe is DUE!!"

Average(runs@team and season)<=2.65 and -105 < line and month=4 and to:division=division and conference=AL

**figue** · 04-07-14, 10:21 PM

Originally posted by bignick410

Hey guys I had long day of work finally outta there ! anyway had time to find this little one with plays today

site = home and p :line < -105 and line < -105 and p :runs+2 < =po :runs and p :SG=3 and SG=1 and 2005 < =season

its another run line but has over 400 plays with a 18% roi. play on home favs after losing by 2 or more runs as favs in their last game which aslo was the last game of the series.

nice work 2-0 today on the RL+money

**green7** · 04-07-14, 10:26 PM

Good on ya Big Nick.....2-0 MLs....way to go!

**green7** · 04-07-14, 11:21 PM

Curiously Big Nick's angle is horrible after a two game series

HF and po:runs-p:runs>=2 and p:F and p:SG=2 and SG=1

SU: 23-34 (-0.68, 40.4%) avg line: -153.5 / 139.6
on / against: -$2,531 / +$2,161
ROI: -28.9% / +37.9%
RL:10-31 (-2.48, 24.4%) avg line: 144.2 / -159.1
on / against: -$1,778 / +$1,673
ROI: -42.8% / +25.6%
OU:25-31-1 (0.18, 44.6%) avg total: 8.6
over / under: -$815 / +$160
ROI: -13.2% / +2.5%

and not too good after a 4 game series.

HF and po:runs-p:runs>=2 and p:F and p:SG=4 and SG=1

Ours is to not question why......

**19th Hole** · 04-07-14, 11:56 PM

Originally posted by JMon

your thoughts on this 54% dog winner.

p:runs<=3 and division!= o:division and (SG=1 or SG=3) and op:runs<=3 and H and rest<3 and line>=105 and month!=8 and 2006<=season and 10>=total>=6.5

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

JMON
Did you want a comment on the 67% R/L Winner??
Cubbies 8-3...very nice.

**JR007** · 04-08-14, 06:20 AM

Originally posted by JMon

With all due respect...have you track "line movement" plays for the last 5 years..solely? Aside "that number" do you see a predictive advantage on a particular line movement in the long run (thus 5 years). Steam or reverse line movement?

no, my approach is to look at three or four of the offshores "behavior patterns" certain numbers, certain numbers repeating themselves in the line history....(funky numbers ie (bookmaker ML.)...especially around tip...along with contrarian thinking......have trouble in bases and college baskets....a bit easier in nba and college football...should note that these observations are moneyline, and the moneyline/spread aspect of the line history more than spreads, generally I fade spread move of two points or more.......the advantage as I see it, is that you are seeing things in "real time" and making decisions on those observations , why does bookmaker use -121 in their line history, quite frequently, why does greek use -122 frequently......that sort of thing, if -121 or -122 are used as the last move why ??
but you have to break it down to home dogs,away dogs, home fav/away fav....sorry for the rambling hope this makes some sense, as much about fades as plays....to do it right you really need a spreadsheet

**bignick410** · 04-08-14, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by JMon

really nice work here. wished I would have seen it before I play texas.

Though, Why so many spaces?

Thanks and as for the spaces had a hard time getting the one to show because of all the < and > symbols so I maybe got a little space bar happy to of frustration when I was posting it haha

**bignick410** · 04-08-14, 11:57 AM

Originally posted by green7

HF and po:runs-p:runs>=2 and p:F and p:SG=2 and SG=1

SU: 23-34 (-0.68, 40.4%) avg line: -153.5 / 139.6
on / against: -$2,531 / +$2,161
ROI: -28.9% / +37.9%
RL:10-31 (-2.48, 24.4%) avg line: 144.2 / -159.1
on / against: -$1,778 / +$1,673
ROI: -42.8% / +25.6%
OU:25-31-1 (0.18, 44.6%) avg total: 8.6
over / under: -$815 / +$160
ROI: -13.2% / +2.5%

and not too good after a 4 game series.

HF and po:runs-p:runs>=2 and p:F and p:SG=4 and SG=1

Ours is to not question why......

very interesting didn't notice that when looking

**Cougs** · 04-08-14, 05:51 PM

what do you guys think about this query?

team=Rockies and o:conference=AL and o:STL

since 2004, there are been 45 such games with the suggested play coming in at 65% and an ROI of 22%. colorado has been hitting LHP well early on this year, however. would you more experienced guys look at this and be leery because a.) the sample size is relatively small and b.) given the basic nature of the query, the line would account for this analysis?

worth a play?

**JMon** · 04-08-14, 07:41 PM

Doesn't look bad, but personally I wouldn't base a play solely on this small of a team specific situation. If you do, one needs to dig deeper to perhaps find a appreciation of tonight s situation and see how its did in the past. For instance, such parameters as the Rockies as Fav, at home, two STL, total>=10, month of April.

**JMon** · 04-09-14, 07:31 AM

Originally posted by JMon

total <= 7 and tA(runs) <= 3.3 and oA(runs) <= 3.8 and conference = NL and o:conference = NL and rest = 0 and 2011<=season

going again! Lets see what happens.

**green7** · 04-09-14, 07:38 AM

p:runs > 6 and HF and division != o:division and SG = 2 and playoffs = 0 and conference != o:conference and conference = AL

SU: 67-33 (1.23, 67.0%)
avg line: -156.9 / 143.8
on / against: +$1,627 / -$2,012
ROI: +10.4% / -20.1%
RL: 30-40 (-0.60, 42.9%)
avg line: 134.6 / -147.4
on / against: +$166 / -$586
ROI: +2.4% / -5.7%
OU: 46-50-4 (0.46, 47.9%)
avg total: 9.1
over / under: -$875 / -$5
ROI: -8.0% / -0.0%

**JMon** · 04-09-14, 07:45 AM

Reds are trying to avoid a road sweep in a three game series. Let's see how they do!

With below we can see they are 13-4 (since 2010), winning by an ave. margin of 1.3 runs. They went 5-1 last year and looks to go 4-0, in this situation, against the Cardinals all as a dog. Today looks like a nice price again! Look luck if you play it.

A and p:L and pp:L and SG=SGS=SG=3 and team=Reds and 20100825<=date

**green7** · 04-09-14, 07:48 AM

The Cubbies

HD and tA(W)<.42 and conference=o:conference and division=o:division and playoffs=0 and conference=NL and SG = 2

SU: 94-94 (-0.23, 50.0%)
avg line: 130.0 / -141.6
on / against: +$2,408 / -$3,433
ROI: +12.8% / -12.9%
RL: 75-49 (0.99, 60.5%)
avg line: -133.0 / 120.7
on / against: +$1,169 / -$1,693
ROI: +7.0% / -13.2%
OU: 97-81-10 (0.54, 54.5%)
avg total: 8.6 over / under: +$845 / -$2,460
ROI: +4.1% / -11.9%

**green7** · 04-09-14, 07:49 AM

p:runs>6 and p:AW and AD and SG=3 and conference!= o:conference and DAY

**green7** · 04-09-14, 07:51 AM

p:runs>6 and p:AW and AD and SG=3 and division=o:division and NGT

**green7** · 04-09-14, 08:01 AM

The Mets

AD and p:AW and SG=2 and division=o:division and day!=Saturday and day!=Sunday and p:runs<5 and op:runs<3 and NGT

46-37 (0.25, 55.4%)	avg line: 134.9 / -148.8	on / against: +$2,541 / -$3,193	ROI: +30.6% / -25.8%
40-18 (1.60, 69.0%)	avg line: -165.1 / 149.5	on / against: +$1,250 / -$1,477	ROI: +12.9% / -24.6%
30-50-3 (-0.56, 37.5%)	avg total: 8.0	over / under: -$2,460 / +$1,730	ROI: -27.0% / +18.9%

Thanks for the finds JMon a bit of a conflict with the above total and your query, I played yours,.....this is it for me for baseball today, good fortune everyone.

**Tillos** · 04-09-14, 09:02 AM

For the cubbies backers today: team=Cubs and p:HL and po:team=Pirates and H and o:team=Pirates

Cubs are 20-9 straight up coming off a home loss to the Pirates, playing the Pirates the next day at home

**Tillos** · 04-09-14, 09:05 AM

Question!

Can't figure out the day / night game sdql.

Example;

White Sox playing during the day at home, coming off an night game loss at home

**JMon** · 04-09-14, 10:46 AM

Originally posted by Tillos

Question!

Can't figure out the day / night game sdql.

Example;

White Sox playing during the day at home, coming off an night game loss at home

see post 87 for example of how I used night parameter, day would be DAY, capitalized!!!!

**superbowl3056** · 04-09-14, 02:40 PM

anybody else having problems with the sdql site? won't load for me for some reason

**JMon** · 04-09-14, 04:15 PM

Originally posted by JMon

Reds are trying to avoid a road sweep in a three game series. Let's see how they do!

With below we can see they are 13-4 (since 2010), winning by an ave. margin of 1.3 runs. They went 5-1 last year and looks to go 4-0, in this situation, against the Cardinals all as a dog. Today looks like a nice price again! Look luck if you play it.

A and p:L and pp:L and SG=SGS=SG=3 and team=Reds and 20100825<=date