MLB - Situation Plays - SDQL

[posey]

Fade Brew Crew?

Small sample size, but lulz:

2-7 (-1.78, 22.2%) avg line: -137.0 / 123.0 on / against: -$755 / +$670 ROI: -61.4% / +67.7% 1-7 (-3.38, 12.5%) avg line: 107.5 / -122.4 on / against: -$705 / +$670 ROI: -74.0% / +61.8% 4-5-0 (-1.67, 44.4%) avg total: 8.6 over / under: -$160 / +$55 ROI: -16.1% / +5.6%

[JMon]

only four parameters, good sample, hits at a 80%clip since 2004 and has never lost in the db...basically we want to fade a road dog revenging a one run loss; starting a pitcher who allowed zero run in his last outing. contrarian to say the least.

175 >= line >= 120 and P:margin = -1 and s:SRA = 0 and site = away

[JMon]

simple logic here basically playing on a road team starting a pitcher that has better whip over his last three games than the opposing pitcher. Hot last couple of years, with dogs hitting 70%.. Pirates

A and A(starter whip@starter and season, N=3)<2.50 and A(o:starter whip@o:starter and o:season, N=3)>=2.25 and 2012<=season

[Alex Vaile]

Early game query against favorite.
Starter = Homer Bailey and line <=-130 and s:SIP>=8 and s:SWA>0

Bailey 0 and 8 in this situation.

First posted play for 7 / 10: Cubs +135

[b1slickguy]

only four parameters, good sample, hits at a 80%clip since 2004 and has never lost in the db...basically we want to fade a road dog revenging a one run loss; starting a pitcher who allowed zero run in his last outing. contrarian to say the least.

175 >= line >= 120 and P:margin = -1 and s:SRA = 0 and site = away

Another one fading the south siders today.
Good luck.

A and p:IL>7 and po:WOW and (SG=3 or SG=4)

[emceeaye]

only four parameters, good sample, hits at a 80%clip since 2004 and has never lost in the db...basically we want to fade a road dog revenging a one run loss; starting a pitcher who allowed zero run in his last outing. contrarian to say the least.

175 >= line >= 120 and P:margin = -1 and s:SRA = 0 and site = away

Add SG=4.

What is interesting is that of the 9 game 4s from that sample, the record is 5-4. So, 1/6 of of the games in which the revenging team wins were game 4s. Not a huge sample size but something to consider.

[Alex Vaile]

Second posted play for 7 / 10 :
Under 6 Pads vs Dodgers -110

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

[Alex Vaile]

Small sample size, but lulz:

2-7 (-1.78, 22.2%) avg line: -137.0 / 123.0 on / against: -$755 / +$670 ROI: -61.4% / +67.7% 1-7 (-3.38, 12.5%) avg line: 107.5 / -122.4 on / against: -$705 / +$670 ROI: -74.0% / +61.8% 4-5-0 (-1.67, 44.4%) avg total: 8.6 over / under: -$160 / +$55 ROI: -16.1% / +5.6%

Wow what an inning for Phillies. Thanks for the tip Posey I took it today. Cubs win too nice start to the day!

[Hopicap]

I think this goes over even based on that query. Thinkin Kershaw gives up 2 (cant be perfect forever) and Dodgers put up 5 to 6.
6.5 is just too risky for me

[JMon]

simple logic here basically playing on a road team starting a pitcher that has better whip over his last three games than the opposing pitcher. Hot last couple of years, with dogs hitting 70%.. Pirates

A and A(starter whip@starter and season, N=3)<2.50 and A(o:starter whip@o:starter and o:season, N=3)>=2.25 and 2012<=season

fukk sweating that juice.. But situation comes in

[Hopicap]

CUBS tomorrow?

p:WADX and site=home and op:runs=3 and FGS

I like the odds though the sample is a bit slim. Thoughts?

Cubs home dogs so this has some value

[BasesLoaded314]

cubs will still apply here, too:

p:WADX and site = home and FGS and streak < 4 and o:streak > -2



inspired by tonights offensive explosions:

p:hits > 14 and 14 > p:runs > 6 and -6 < streak < 3 and 7 > site streak > -6 and p:HR < 3 and 10 < p:TLOB < 15 and s:SRA != 0 and s:SHA > 2 and s:SWA < 5 and s:SIP < 9 and line > -235 and day != Sunday and day != Wednesday and (H or day != Tuesday) and (A or day != Thursday) and (A or day != Friday)

[Alex Vaile]

2 and 0 today for + 2.35 units
34 and 24 overall
+ 7.5 units

[Alex Vaile]

I think this goes over even based on that query. Thinkin Kershaw gives up 2 (cant be perfect forever) and Dodgers put up 5 to 6.
6.5 is just too risky for me

It was actually under 6 and cashed easily. Hope u tailed along.

[Hopicap]

Followed my gut and said no. Decent hit..... congrats to Joe public

[Alex Vaile]

Followed my gut and said no. Decent hit..... congrats to Joe public

Not sure about the Joe Public comment. I base my plays on these sdql queries not percentages. Also I doubt the public would b on an under 6 for even money when over 6 was -120 before the game. This is an sdql thread bud. Good luck.

[Alex Vaile]

First posted plays for 7 / 11=
Cincinnati Reds - 120
Reds - 1.5 + 180

team=Reds and H and SG=1 and p:LOB>=20 and p:L

Situation 15 and 0 run line 6 and 2.

[JMon]

fukk sweating that juice.. But situation comes in

I meant the Bos situation...Pirates came in easy...lol

[JMon]

Not sure about the Joe Public comment. I base my plays on these sdql queries not percentages. Also I doubt the public would b on an under 6 for even money when over 6 was -120 before the game. This is an sdql thread bud. Good luck.

I was thinking the same thing. lol

[posey]

Angels bombing the Rangers

2-14 (-3.38, 12.5%) avg line: 143.1 / -158.1 on / against: -$1,112 / +$1,085 ROI: -69.4% / +43.0% 3-13 (-1.88, 18.8%) avg line: -119.5 / 109.4 on / against: -$1,345 / +$1,244 ROI: -67.1% / +72.2% 7-8-1 (0.16, 46.7%) avg total: 8.5 over / under: -$175 / +$30 ROI: -9.9% / +1.7%

[posey]

Indians and Over

29-10 (1.67, 74.4%) avg line: -191.2 / 170.9 on / against: +$930 / -$1,150 ROI: +12.5% / -29.5% 10-6 (1.62, 62.5%) avg line: 112.1 / -122.8 on / against: +$550 / -$643 ROI: +33.5% / -32.3% 25-12-2 (2.10, 67.6%) avg total: 9.0 over / under: +$1,215 / -$1,520 ROI: +28.4% / -35.6%

[JMon]

First posted plays for 7 / 11=
Cincinnati Reds - 120
Reds - 1.5 + 180

team=Reds and H and SG=1 and p:LOB>=20 and p:L

Situation 15 and 0 run line 6 and 2.

My fav situation of the season up over 22u alone this year. I supports the Reds and check out how the Padres do

WP < 53 and A(SWHIP@starter and season) < 1.2 and A(SOPW@starter and season) >= .333 and A(SSPB@starter and season) >= .50 and D and conference = NL and SG < 4 and line > 100 and month!= 9

[posey]

Fade Kuroda as a road dog on night games on the weekend

3-16 (-2.21, 15.8%) avg line: 121.5 / -131.6 on / against: -$1,277 / +$1,247 ROI: -67.2% / +49.6% 6-13 (-0.87, 31.6%) avg line: -170.0 / 155.8 on / against: -$1,575 / +$1,403 ROI: -48.3% / +71.4% 9-10-0 (0.11, 47.4%) avg total: 8.1 over / under: -$210 / $0 ROI: -10.0% / 0.0%

[posey]

Under at Philly

7-7 (0.36, 50.0%) avg line: 106.0 / -116.3 on / against: -$20 / -$95 ROI: -1.3% / -5.5% 6-6 (1.00, 50.0%) avg line: -113.7 / -100.1 on / against: -$51 / +$25 ROI: -3.3% / +1.7% 2-11-1 (-1.71, 15.4%) avg total: 8.4 over / under: -$980 / +$900 ROI: -63.6% / +58.4%

[Alex Vaile]

2 posted Unders today:

Under 7.5 -115 Washington vs Philly
Under 7 -105 Arizona vs San Francisco

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

[Alex Vaile]

7-7 (0.36, 50.0%) avg line: 106.0 / -116.3 on / against: -$20 / -$95 ROI: -1.3% / -5.5% 6-6 (1.00, 50.0%) avg line: -113.7 / -100.1 on / against: -$51 / +$25 ROI: -3.3% / +1.7% 2-11-1 (-1.71, 15.4%) avg total: 8.4 over / under: -$980 / +$900 ROI: -63.6% / +58.4%

Liking the Philly Under too! Bases money query points at that one.

[posey]

Liking the Philly Under too! Bases money query points at that one.

Gonna parlay it with CLE ML.

[JMon]

Not active today, but wanted to share a July situation that's pretty solid. Basically in the month of July we want to fade a AL road team that's not a fav of more than and -140 that's won 5 or more out of 7. Filters games series>1, total>7.5 and omit wednesday.

S(W@team and season, N=7) >= 5 and month = 7 and A and conference = AL and line >= -140 and SG > 1 and total>7.5 and day!=Wednesday

[Hopicap]

Not sure about the Joe Public comment. I base my plays on these sdql queries not percentages. Also I doubt the public would b on an under 6 for even money when over 6 was -120 before the game. This is an sdql thread bud. Good luck.

These queries are all percentages.... Thats why you run the numbers. Statistics is a powerful tool. BOL today Alex

[Alex Vaile]

3-16 (-2.21, 15.8%) avg line: 121.5 / -131.6 on / against: -$1,277 / +$1,247 ROI: -67.2% / +49.6% 6-13 (-0.87, 31.6%) avg line: -170.0 / 155.8 on / against: -$1,575 / +$1,403 ROI: -48.3% / +71.4% 9-10-0 (0.11, 47.4%) avg total: 8.1 over / under: -$210 / $0 ROI: -10.0% / 0.0%

I saw this as well for total. When Kuroda faces the O's the veteran's last nine outings against the O's, the Under is 8-0-1.

[Alex Vaile]

These queries are all percentages.... Thats why you run the numbers. Statistics is a powerful tool. BOL today Alex

Stats are powerful for sure.
We use ROI% predominantly to measure the success of a query not raw percentages or line moves which your post seemed to indicate. And as I said I doubt the "PUBLIC" had under 6 but hey to each his own. Get on the Reds today if you'd like a good looking play.

[posey]

Another one supporting LAA

18-6 (2.00, 75.0%) avg line: -143.1 / 129.5 on / against: +$1,025 / -$1,125 ROI: +29.0% / -43.9% 15-9 (1.00, 62.5%) avg line: -103.1 / -107.8 on / against: +$758 / -$899 ROI: +26.5% / -30.4% 11-12-1 (1.25, 47.8%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: -$205 / -$35 ROI: -7.9% / -1.3%

[Hopicap]

Tailin the Reds

Most legitimate thread on the site right here... Keep it up

[posey]

Fade the Padres

3-13 (-1.62, 18.8%) avg line: 133.6 / -148.3 on / against: -$975 / +$935 ROI: -59.8% / +38.8% 7-9 (-0.69, 43.8%) avg line: -138.2 / 125.7 on / against: -$488 / +$388 ROI: -21.0% / +21.4% 8-8-0 (0.31, 50.0%) avg total: 8.1 over / under: -$110 / -$60 ROI: -6.1% / -3.6%

[JMon]

Tailin the Reds

Most legitimate thread on the site right here... Keep it up