MLB - Situation Plays - SDQL

[tarosill]

Here's one I tweaked from a database trend. It has a decent ROI and good WP. Please feel free to tweak to increase N and WP.

HF and p:A and p:L and season>2008 and tA(W, N=13)>=.55 and tA(s:SRA + ss:SRA+sss:SRA)<=14 and tA(s:SRA + ss:SRA)<=5.5 and s:SRA<=5

This is a simplified version of the query that produces even better results.

HF and p:A and -7 < p:margin < 0 and tS(W, N=12) > 6 and 0 < s:SRA < 5 and season > 2008

[emceeaye]

Tarosill, beautiful!
This increases the N to a nice extent and the WP. It looks like average starter runs allowed over the last 3 and 2 starts, respectively restricts the influence of the more dominant factor of p:L or p:-7 < margin < 0.

This is also reminding me that it's not necessarily true that any margin of loss more than one run is more predictive of a win the next game for that team in this situation; 7 runs and beyond is reflective of a problem for that team that outweighs the benefit of being at home this game.

It's active tomorrow...

This is a simplified version of the query that produces even better results.

HF and p:A and -7 < p:margin < 0 and tS(W, N=12) > 6 and 0 < s:SRA < 5 and season > 2008

[emceeaye]

and line > -191

Thanks Bases!

Thanks also for all your queries. I'm coming up with conflicting queries with respect to tomorrow's action, and given that there is no shortage of active games from all of these queries, I'm thankful to have enough to have a reason to eliminate some of them.

[Alex Vaile]

that smiley is ": D"

O ok thanks will do. I thought to do that but couldn't see where to remove spaces thanks!

[Alex Vaile]

First posted play for 7 /18:

Mike Leake 13 and 0 in this spot
Cincinnati + 105
starter = Mike Leake and s:SWHIP >= 2 and s:L

Good luck to all in this second half!

[Alex Vaile]

Hey fellas.. Hope you are enjoying the break as much as I am. Bases is a fukkin grind. Honest, I have got the itch.. but all in all, good break. After a brutal May and a good 2nd June and July .....losing roughly 5+ to date. Recovered 20+ during that time.

During the break I came up with this spot.. Have you wondered what happens to a team after a home loss, had more hits than their oppt. Put them in a first game of a series on zero rest...and you have yourself a nice fade and dog play......currently 7-19 fading the fav, last two. Let down spot???

p:HL and p:hits > po:hits and 125 > line >= -160 and SG = 1 and rest = 0 and o:rest = 0 and 9>=total>=6.5

Side note..plan on doing a NFL SDQL segment. Hope to see all of you over on the NFL forum in due time. Work together, win together.

Yes I was doing a bit of research for week 1 NFL getting familiar with the phrases. Should b fun. Good luck in the second half JMon!

[Alex Vaile]

Tarosill, beautiful!
This increases the N to a nice extent and the WP. It looks like average starter runs allowed over the last 3 and 2 starts, respectively restricts the influence of the more dominant factor of p:L or p:-7 < margin < 0.

This is also reminding me that it's not necessarily true that any margin of loss more than one run is more predictive of a win the next game for that team in this situation; 7 runs and beyond is reflective of a problem for that team that outweighs the benefit of being at home this game.

It's active tomorrow...

Unfortunately one of Bases new queries contradicts this one with
D and p:W and p:runs < 4 and SGS < 5 and SG != 3 and -4 < p:streak < 2 and 6 > o:streak > -4 and line > 134 and op:runs < 10 and 0 < op:TLOB < 11 and p:SG < 4 and p:SGS > 2. Does this affect your play? Which query does everyone think is stronger? Maybe lay off this one?

[emceeaye]

Unfortunately one of Bases new queries contradicts this one with
D and p:W and p:runs < 4 and SGS < 5 and SG != 3 and -4 < p:streak < 2 and 6 > o:streak > -4 and line > 134 and op:runs < 10 and 0 < op:TLOB < 11 and p:SG < 4 and p:SGS > 2. Does this affect your play? Which query does everyone think is stronger? Maybe lay off this one?

You can never go wrong with laying off a play you have doubts about. However, I think that it is important that you add the terms "season>2012" and "season>2013" to that Bases query you posted above to see how it has been performing lately.

Then take into account another of Bases' queries he posted recently that favors favorites after 2 days or more of rest.

Good luck!

[JMon]

line<=-155 and Sum(hits@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)<=.265 and t:conference=AL and os:earned runs<=1 and total<9.5 and SG<4

Play on A's

21-5 this season, 62-19 last two year.

[Alex Vaile]

You can never go wrong with laying off a play you have doubts about. However, I think that it is important that you add the terms "season>2012" and "season>2013" to that Bases query you posted above to see how it has been performing lately.

Then take into account another of Bases' queries he posted recently that favors favorites after 2 days or more of rest.

Good luck!

Cool ya good call. I like your process there. I went with them anyway. Go tigers!

[Alex Vaile]

Second posted play for 7 / 18:

Mets vs Padres Under 6.5 -120

H and month > 5 and season > 2009 and 1.2 > tA(BPRA) > .6 and 8 > (s:SRA - os:SRA) > -4 and (p:hits + os:walks) < 15 and month != 8 and s:SRA < 6 and os:SRA < 5 and 30.7 > (p:SIP + pp:SIP + ppp:SIP + pppp:SIP) > 18.7 and (op:SIP + opp:SIP + oppp:SIP + opppp:SIP) > 19.4 and total > 6.4 and pu margin > -6.6 and streak < 5 and o:streak < 6 and -8 < ou streak < 4 and os:SPT < 123 and team != Twins and team != Red Sox and o:team != Indians and (s:SSO + ss:SSO + sss:SSO + ssss:SSO) > 9 and (s:SSO + ss:SSO + sss:SSO) < 26 and (os:SSO + oss:SSO + osss:SSO + ossss:SSO + osssss:SSO) > 13 and (os:SSO + oss:SSO + osss:SSO + ossss:SSO) < 31

[Alex Vaile]

line<=-155 and Sum(hits@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)<=.265 and t:conference=AL and os:earned runs<=1 and total<9.5 and SG<4

Play on A's

21-5 this season, 62-19 last two year.

Nice win on As. I got worked yesterday. It was a day for favorites as Bases noted earlier.

[JMon]

Nice win on As. I got worked yesterday. It was a day for favorites as Bases noted earlier.

ya...luckily a game that went my way. I went 2-2 on the day. Hit mets as well.

[Alex Vaile]

0 and 2 yesterday for -2.2 units
39 and 29
+7.3 units

[JMon]

Sum(hits@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)<=.250 and t:conference=NL and p:runs>=8 and pp:runs>=8 and 2006<=season and 150>=line>=-250 and SG<4

Here we want to play on a NL team with a BA of <=.250 that has put up b2b runs or 8 or more. Play Giants

[Alex Vaile]

First posted play for today 7/19:

White sox -103
team = Astros and p:margin = -1 and p:runs > 0 and SG < SGS and date >= 20130830

[JMon]

H and -150 <= line <= -130 and Average(runs@team and season) >= 4.7 and Average(runs@team and season) <= 5.2 and os:starter era <= 4.2 and o:conference = AL and Average(starter hits@starter and season) <= 5.5 and conference = AL and 9.5 >= total >= 7 and playoffs = 0

Decent on the RL too.

Play on A's

[JMon]

conference!=o:conference and HF and (day=Saturday or day=Sunday) and line>-200 and team=Yankees

Yankees are 21-8 since 04 as a home fav, in interleague play, in front of their fans on the weekend.

[JMon]

Posted this before, Bos been hot in this spot this year, side and total!

H and 10 >= total >= 8 and po:runs <= 4 and ppo:runs <= 4 and pppo:runs < 4 and op:L and op:margin = -1 and 2004 <= season and rest = 0 and month != 8 and team=Red Sox

[JMon]

big winner thus far this season is active today; fading the Mets

WP < 53 and A(SWHIP@starter and season) < 1.2 and A(SOPW@starter and season) >= .333 and A(SSPB@starter and season) >= .50 and D and conference = NL and SG < 4 and line > 100 and month!= 9

[JMon]

Posted this July-Only spot before...perfect 12-0 this year fading the Indians (GM2)

A and line>=150 and sA(SHA)<=5.5 and month=7 and total<10.5

[Alex Vaile]

Second posted play for 7 / 19:

Over 7.5 -105
Brewers vs Nationals
p:HR = 2 and op:HR < 3 and SG < 5 and SG != 3 and 1 < SGS < 5 and s:SRA < 6 and os:SRA < 6 and (s:SHA + ss:SHA) < 17 and (os:SHA + oss:SHA) < 17 and 2.6 < tA(runs, N=10) < 6.8 and oA(runs, N=10) < 6.6 and total < 10.5 and 84 < os:SPT < 119 and starter rest < 20 and o:starter rest < 25 and (rest = 1 or rest = 0) and p:hits < 17 and 3 < op:hits < 18 and .8 < tA(doubles, N=10) < 2.5 and .8 < oA(doubles, N=10) < 3.1 and day != Wednesday and -2 < ou streak < 5 and -2 < ou streak < 3 and month < 10 and (game number < 107 or game number > 116) and tA(walks, N=10) > 1.9 and 1.9 < oA(walks, N=10) < 4.7 and tA(BPRA, N=10) > .4 and p:hits > 5 and (start time - p:start time < -306 or start time - p:start time > -102) and (p:SO + op:SO) > 7

[Alex Vaile]

conference!=o:conference and HF and (day=Saturday or day=Sunday) and line>-200 and team=Yankees

Yankees are 21-8 since 04 as a home fav, in interleague play, in front of their fans on the weekend.

Alfredo Simon a dog of 140? Mccarthy a favorite? Just seems wrong. Simon one of the best and Mccarthy one of the worst. I was scratching my head on this one.

[JMon]

Alfredo Simon a dog of 140? Mccarthy a favorite? Just seems wrong. Simon one of the best and Mccarthy one of the worst. I was scratching my head on this one.

me too. contrarian

[JMon]

Second posted play for 7 / 19:

Over 7.5 -105
Brewers vs Nationals
p:HR = 2 and op:HR < 3 and SG < 5 and SG != 3 and 1 < SGS < 5 and s:SRA < 6 and os:SRA < 6 and (s:SHA + ss:SHA) < 17 and (os:SHA + oss:SHA) < 17 and 2.6 < tA(runs, N=10) < 6.8 and oA(runs, N=10) < 6.6 and total < 10.5 and 84 < os:SPT < 119 and starter rest < 20 and o:starter rest < 25 and (rest = 1 or rest = 0) and p:hits < 17 and 3 < op:hits < 18 and .8 < tA(doubles, N=10) < 2.5 and .8 < oA(doubles, N=10) < 3.1 and day != Wednesday and -2 < ou streak < 5 and -2 < ou streak < 3 and month < 10 and (game number < 107 or game number > 116) and tA(walks, N=10) > 1.9 and 1.9 < oA(walks, N=10) < 4.7 and tA(BPRA, N=10) > .4 and p:hits > 5 and (start time - p:start time < -306 or start time - p:start time > -102) and (p:SO + op:SO) > 7

like this one

[JR007]

[Alex Vaile]

conference!=o:conference and HF and (day=Saturday or day=Sunday) and line>-200 and team=Yankees

Yankees are 21-8 since 04 as a home fav, in interleague play, in front of their fans on the weekend.

Make that 22 and 8. Nice win to start out the day. Contrarian it is.

[JMon]

Make that 22 and 8. Nice win to start out the day. Contrarian it is.

[BasesLoaded314]

p:date = date and streak = 1 and p:hits - op:hits > 1

this query wont pop up results beforehand since it deals with doubleheaders....

Indians don't apply here b/c they won last night

[Alex Vaile]

Some good winners in here today!
2 and 0 posted for 2 units
41 and 29 overall
+ 9.3 units

[1TimeLucky1]

Nice day today guys, I'm really enjoying the thread. I've been picking up some on killersprts. Thanks for what you guys do.

[Alex Vaile]

Sum(hits@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)<=.250 and t:conference=NL and p:runs>=8 and pp:runs>=8 and 2006<=season and 150>=line>=-250 and SG<4

Here we want to play on a NL team with a BA of <=.250 that has put up b2b runs or 8 or more. Play Giants

Nice winner! !

[Alex Vaile]

like this one

Almost had it in the first inning!

[Alex Vaile]

Favorites 12 and 4 today.

[JMon]

ref post #750

Situation A: Fade a Sunday NL Getaway team

2014 tracking results on the fade: 18-24 (+200)

Last week (ev)

Fading (play against):

Phillies
Cubs
Giants
Brewers
Mets
Rockies

geez this spot usually only spits out 1-2 plays.