MLB - Situation Plays - SDQL

[Alex Vaile]

I have a query for the A's today...which I am playing, but I need to find now..ugh

Did you see my post? It lists 2 good trends 1 query supporting As # 1079. Good luck today Jmon!

[rutt723]

det hous under same query as boston under

[otunj]

H and series game=series games=3 and temperature=Indoors and season=2014


OU: 14-29-3 (-0.37, 32.6%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: -$1,735 / +$1,375 ROI: -34.7% / +26.8%


9 game under streak...4-0 since I started posting plays here

The roof at Minute Maid Park will also be closed

Astros/Tigers U8.5 -110

Here's another query that compliments the play:

A and p:W and RG3 and site streak <= -8

[bobby29]

If it's not listed in the query results, there is no play

Thank you

[JMon]

I have a query for the A's today...which I am playing, but I need to find now..ugh

This as made a very nice profit thus far this season

WP < 53 and A(SWHIP@starter and season) < 1.2 and A(SOPW@starter and season) >= .333 and A(SSPB@starter and season) >= .50 and conference = NL and line>100 and SG < 4 and month!= 9

[JMon]

det hous under same query as boston under

Indeed, the rubber match query!!

[Alex Vaile]

Posted plays for morning:
Detroit -132
Milwaukee - 162 10 and 0 as a home favorite after facing 25 or fewer hitters and they lost in his previous start for a net
SDQL TEXT: starter=Yovani Gallardo and HF and s:SHF<25 and s:L and date>=20070831

Oakland -117 just can't see them losing to Miami with garbage pitcher going for Marlins and the above mentioned queries.

[JMon]

Conflict on the Getaway total

H and total<=7 and day=Sunday and STDSWHIP<=1.05 and conference=NL and 2009<season

[rutt723]

alex post 1081 19-0 fade houston

team=Astros and season>=2010 and p:M8>=1 and p:L and 5>=p:runs>=2

[otunj]

Milwaukee - 162 10 and 0 as a home favorite after facing 25 or fewer hitters and they lost in his previous start for a net
SDQL TEXT: starter=Yovani Gallardo and HF and s:SHF<25 and s:L and date>=20070831
.

Days like yesterday make me anxious about the lines on heavy favorites. Ugh...freakin dilemma!!

[Alex Vaile]

Double post sorry.

[Alex Vaile]

Days like yesterday make me anxious about the lines on heavy favorites. Ugh...freakin dilemma!!

I hear ya! Everyday is a new day though. Brewers rolling...De la Rosa not awesome. Brewers crush lefties!

[otunj]

Conflict on the Getaway total

H and total<=7 and day=Sunday and STDSWHIP<=1.05 and conference=NL and 2009<season

I think that's a pretty small sample size for 10+ seasons even if it is only on Sundays. Plus, two seasons (2012 & 2010) account for 79% of profit. 2012 +$770 & 2010 +$500

[JMon]

I think that's a pretty small sample size for 10+ seasons even if it is only on Sundays. Plus, two seasons (2012 & 2010) account for 79% of profit. 2012 +$770 & 2010 +$500

True..are you playing it?

[Alex Vaile]

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak
> -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16
> op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and
os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11
and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and
team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors +
pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and
(op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors +
opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

4th posted play:
Indians Mariners Under 6.5 -105

[Alex Vaile]

Days like yesterday make me anxious about the lines on heavy favorites. Ugh...freakin dilemma!!

Brewers getting worked bad. Not liking it either so far.

[BasesLoaded314]

heres the marlins query

6 > p:R1 > 1 and 2 < p:runs < 10 and 18 > p:hits > 9 and (SG = 1 or SG = 3) and 7 > SGS > 2 and s:SRA < 6 and 3 < s:SHA < 9 and s:SWA != 3 and 0 < s:SSO < 10 and s:SPT < 123 and starter rest > 4 and -3 < streak < 5 and 3 < os:SHA < 11 and os:SRA != 0 and os:SSO < 9 and op:runs < 14 and (line > 122 or line < 105) and game number > 14 and 1 < oA(doubles, N=10) < 2.8

[otunj]

first time starter is facing a team???

That's what I was thinking, but wasn't sure. The Reds are also good on the Under with everything else the same.

[otunj]

True..are you playing it?

Yeah, because of the Padres. Best team to bet unders (H and A) this year by a long shot.

[otunj]

H and series game=series games=3 and temperature=Indoors and season=2014

14-29-3 (-0.37, 32.6%)

avg total: 8.0

over / under: -$1,735 / +$1,375

ROI: -34.7% / +26.8%

9 game under streak...4-0 since I started posting plays here

Marlins Park's roof is closed for today's game vs Athletics

Marlins/A's U7.5 -115

10 wins in a row!

[otunj]

heres the marlins query

6 > p:R1 > 1 and 2 < p:runs < 10 and 18 > p:hits > 9 and (SG = 1 or SG = 3) and 7 > SGS > 2 and s:SRA < 6 and 3 < s:SHA < 9 and s:SWA != 3 and 0 < s:SSO < 10 and s:SPT < 123 and starter rest > 4 and -3 < streak < 5 and 3 < os:SHA < 11 and os:SRA != 0 and os:SSO < 9 and op:runs < 14 and (line > 122 or line < 105) and game number > 14 and 1 < oA(doubles, N=10) < 2.8

That's a great Dog query!!

[JMon]

This as made a very nice profit thus far this season

WP < 53 and A(SWHIP@starter and season) < 1.2 and A(SOPW@starter and season) >= .333 and A(SSPB@starter and season) >= .50 and conference = NL and line>100 and SG < 4 and month!= 9

winner

[Alex Vaile]

10 wins in a row!

Nice one otunj. That tiger game sucked.

[Alex Vaile]

2 and 2 today on posted plays -.94 units
20 and 9 overall
+9.8 units. Those big favs losing is rough. Nice job guys on the plays today. Hope that red sox under comes through!

[JMon]

Both getaway plays come!

[Alex Vaile]

heres the marlins query

6 > p:R1 > 1 and 2 < p:runs < 10 and 18 > p:hits > 9 and (SG = 1 or SG = 3) and 7 > SGS > 2 and s:SRA < 6 and 3 < s:SHA < 9 and s:SWA != 3 and 0 < s:SSO < 10 and s:SPT < 123 and starter rest > 4 and -3 < streak < 5 and 3 < os:SHA < 11 and os:SRA != 0 and os:SSO < 9 and op:runs < 14 and (line > 122 or line < 105) and game number > 14 and 1 < oA(doubles, N=10) < 2.8

O I see it now. Well it was close one today. As were 1 of my few good calls today. Thanks Bases

[emceeaye]

Excellent, thank you for the clarification. I did stumble across some of those variables already when creating queries, but many of these I haven't used yet. Looking forward to creating more queries when In get a chance. Thanks again for your great queries...BTW, I like your requirement for a high N before your query becomes a qualifier.

Here's a base query that I came up with iny limited free time and I've already started to whiddle down with parameters but may want to add more terms to improve the win % a little more without sacrificing the relatively high sample size too much. Please feel free to tweak for better results, etc

A and site streak<=-4 and tA(W, N=14)+.30 < oA(W, N=14)
take a look at season>2012: RL is good and opposite side SU gets bad.
prior to 2012: opposite side SU is good

Thanks.

well my minimum standard to "qualify" is at least 25%roi and 100 game sample size, but obviously higher is better. I start off by looking for a LARGE set of games that show a tendency to go a certain way. for example, see

p:HR = 2 and op:HR < 3 and SG < 5 and SG != 3 and 1 < SGS < 5

here is almost a 6,000 game set (out of ~25,000 in the database) that shows good potential for OVERS.


from there, its a matter of running through parameters to isolate the winners. ive found the following to be generally effective:


short term hitting stats:

[BasesLoaded314]

A and -7<site streak<-4 and SG>2 and 4>tS(runs, N=14)- oS(runs, N=14)>-26 and p:margin<5 and 6<p:hits<13 and 3<pp:hits<10

[BasesLoaded314]

A and -7 < site streak < -4 and SG > 2 and 4 > tS(runs, N=14) - oS(runs, N=14) > -26 and p:margin < 5 and 6 < p:hits < 13 and 3 < pp:hits < 10

[BasesLoaded314]

tack on a SP qualification and it gets really pretty:

A and -7 < site streak < -4 and SG > 2 and 4 > tS(runs, N=14) - oS(runs, N=14) > -26 and p:margin < 5 and 6 < p:hits < 13 and 3 < pp:hits < 10 and os:SRA < 6 and os:SHA < 8 and os:SHRA < 2 and os:SIP > 4 and o:starter rest < 7

[JMon]

heres the marlins query

6 > p:R1 > 1 and 2 < p:runs < 10 and 18 > p:hits > 9 and (SG = 1 or SG = 3) and 7 > SGS > 2 and s:SRA < 6 and 3 < s:SHA < 9 and s:SWA != 3 and 0 < s:SSO < 10 and s:SPT < 123 and starter rest > 4 and -3 < streak < 5 and 3 < os:SHA < 11 and os:SRA != 0 and os:SSO < 9 and op:runs < 14 and (line > 122 or line < 105) and game number > 14 and 1 < oA(doubles, N=10) < 2.8

pretty salty in interleague as well.

[Alex Vaile]

First posted play of 6/30:

Under 8 kc vs Minnesota even.

AF and SGS = 3 and os:SHRA = 0 and s:SHRA + ss:SHRA != 0 and s:SRA < 8 and os:SRA < 7 and s:SHA > 2 and 2 < os:SHA < 10 and s:SWA < 5 and os:SWA != 0 and starter rest < 11 and s:SIP < 8 and o:starter rest < 14 and p:HR < 4 and p:hits < 16 and (p:SIP + pp:SIP + ppp:SIP + pppp:SIP) > 18 and op:hits > 2 and pp:hits < 14 and total > 7.5 and (game number > 153 or game number < 139) and streak < 4 and o:streak > -7 and -5 < ou streak < 5

[JMon]

This as made a very nice profit thus far this season

WP < 53 and A(SWHIP@starter and season) < 1.2 and A(SOPW@starter and season) >= .333 and A(SSPB@starter and season) >= .50 and conference = NL and line>100 and SG < 4 and month!= 9

Active today...play Reds

[JMon]

good ml and total here..like the twinkies here.

H and -125<=line<=125 and Sum(hits@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)<=.265 and t:conference=AL and 9 * oS(o:earned runs - starter earned runs) / oS(9 - starter innings pitched)<=3.75 and SG<4 and (month=6 or month=7)

[JMon]

First posted play of 6/30:

Under 8 kc vs Minnesota even.

AF and SGS = 3 and os:SHRA = 0 and s:SHRA + ss:SHRA != 0 and s:SRA < 8 and os:SRA < 7 and s:SHA > 2 and 2 < os:SHA < 10 and s:SWA < 5 and os:SWA != 0 and starter rest < 11 and s:SIP < 8 and o:starter rest < 14 and p:HR < 4 and p:hits < 16 and (p:SIP + pp:SIP + ppp:SIP + pppp:SIP) > 18 and op:hits > 2 and pp:hits < 14 and total > 7.5 and (game number > 153 or game number < 139) and streak < 4 and o:streak > -7 and -5 < ou streak < 5

just a team trend for you to think about, not trying to get you off this play.

team=Royals and A and FGS and DIV and p:W and p:BPRA=0 and p:errors>0