Very simply put, you have to be very selective when playing favorites, use standard & advanced metrics to assess if dog is live or not.
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Thanks, doesn't look good for the home games this season, but please check this thread the first posting: http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-b...underdogs.html If you only take odds less than +120 the win percentage of the last season was ~ 60%. Check that out! That is able to bet. Also it makes sense to look on the away games, but haven't tested the last years yet, cause it makes a lot of work to check every division without a site is able to review the division games only.
Where have you checked the divisional dogs data above? Where I can check that in general?Comment -
Away record for the season
141-198 (-0.38, 41.6%) avg line: 137.6 / -149.9 on / against: -$579 / -$1,163 ROI: -1.7% / -2.3% 203-135 (1.11, 60.1%) avg line: -162.1 / 149.0 on / against: -$1,028 / -$723 ROI: -1.9% / -2.1% 159-163-16 (0.20, 49.4%) avg total: 8.1 over / under: -$1,715 / -$1,395 ROI: -4.7% / -3.7%
Home record
57-74 (-0.61, 43.5%) avg line: 124.6 / -135.0 on / against: -$492 / -$85 ROI: -3.8% / -0.5% 78-53 (0.89, 59.5%) avg line: -137.9 / 127.1 on / against: +$625 / -$1,177 ROI: +3.4% / -8.9% 69-59-3 (0.87, 53.9%) avg total: 7.9 over / under: +$425 / -$1,650 ROI: +2.9% / -11.5% Comment -
sorry this is Away record with odds<=+120
57-61 (0.36, 48.3%) avg line: 110.1 / -120.0 on / against: +$147 / -$715 ROI: +1.2% / -5.0% 80-37 (1.83, 68.4%) avg line: -191.5 / 175.5 on / against: +$980 / -$1,555 ROI: +4.4% / -13.3% 57-54-6 (0.09, 51.4%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: -$165 / -$910 ROI: -1.3% / -7.0% Comment -
Now dating back since 2008 season
Away with odds<=+120
Home odds<=+120609-686 (0.11, 47.0%) avg line: 109.5 / -119.6 on / against: -$2,123 / -$4,005 ROI: -1.6% / -2.6% 839-450 (1.48, 65.1%) avg line: -183.2 / 166.9 on / against: +$3,308 / -$9,987 ROI: +1.4% / -7.5% 601-630-60 (0.30, 48.8%) avg total: 8.5 over / under: -$8,720 / -$3,330 ROI: -6.2% / -2.3%
456-470 (-0.36, 49.2%) avg line: 109.3 / -119.3 on / against: +$2,681 / -$7,221 ROI: +2.9% / -6.5% 544-380 (1.01, 58.9%) avg line: -146.3 / 133.7 on / against: -$1,139 / -$3,538 ROI: -0.8% / -3.7% 415-463-47 (0.25, 47.3%) avg total: 8.4 over / under: -$8,755 / +$485 ROI: -8.7% / +0.5% Comment -
Thx. Haven't known where to type this in. Have found it now. It's a great database. Now I can look in every next divisional games: http://killersports.com/mlb.py/query...+L+!&sid=guest I think that's the right code, Artie?Comment -
mmmm if you want to see the record for dogs the code is this:
for home:
line>0 and line <+120 and and DIV and H and season=2013
for away just change "H" for "A"
you can play with as many variables as you can imagine, GL in your search if you need any help let me know.Comment -
Thx. In this thread here: http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-b...underdogs.html the guy texan has calculated for line <+120 59,6 % for last season, but that surely hangs together with the actual date of "7/29/12, season wasn't over yet. The alltime record of division dogs <120 is nearly ~50%:
Alltime record division dogs <120
There all odds are over 100 and some from 105 till 120 it should have a little profit but not really worth it I think. The average odd is 107,3 with 49% wins it's after my calculation still not in the profits. So doesn't make sense to bet. What you think? In a 3/4 Series it would make perhaps sense cause mostly the dog wins/hthc in the first two games. What you think? How long goes the db back if I don't type in a season?1555-1625 (-0.06, 48.9%) avg line: 107.3 / -117.4 on / against: +$4,308 / -$19,911 ROI: +1.4% / -5.3% 1365-815 (1.32, 62.6%) avg line: -168.1 / 151.4 on / against: +$2,748 / -$15,217 ROI: +0.7% / -6.6% 1478-1540-155 (0.33, 49.0%) avg total: 8.7 over / under: -$20,065 / -$9,145 ROI: -5.8% / -2.6% Comment -
@ Artie, which code I need for to check each division? east, west etc.Comment -
I don´t think there´s a code to break it per divisions, although as I mentioned before there several combinations you can try, for example I was capping Rays game for today and this poped out in the morning
Away dogs that won the previous game and next game is Divisional and is the 1st game of the series
5-14 (-0.68, 26.3%) avg line: 141.2 / -155.6 on / against: -$710 / +$635 ROI: -37.4% / +21.3% 12-7 (0.82, 63.2%) avg line: -154.6 / 142.1 on / against: +$165 / -$265 ROI: +5.6% / -13.8% 11-8-0 (-0.03, 57.9%) avg total: 8.5 over / under: +$210 / -$455 ROI: +10.2% / -21.4% It is not to bet on dogs , but you find a good value betting against the dog, and you can go on for years to find good trends, and best of all you can save them in your account. I think this also answers the question if it´s worth to chase dogs in that situation, IMO I would only chase a play if I can see a trend with over 70% previous succes.Comment -
Missed to write that above record is also when totals are set 8.5Comment -
Think the other way only bet vs dogs isn't really better, cause the odds are lower and there's often only a win by 1 run. To get a value odd you have to bet on the runline, haven't checked how the average win percentage of that is. Do you know it? Cause your record above, the most division games start after a division game. It's sure not 26,3%, that's also for this season only and it's not over, also the alltime record is 48-50% you have seen above, so the win percentage goes over the whole game series. Can you check what's the win percentage for the first game for the favorite in alltime?
What is with the rays, they're still the worst team in the division, although they had a long win series. I have checked the worst team in each division over the last years by espn for a short time, that team has mostly the worst record in the division. In the last 3 years only 1 team had a better record (2nd worst) in the same division. I see this so, the worst team is the punch-ball of the other teams, that's normal in team sports. If you're better you don't let the other team alive.
Therefore I would bet vs these teams, would have bet on the rays too today.
So you prefer only bet vs dogs and after which system?Comment -
Not really betting against dogs, what I meant is that this was a perfect spot to fade the Divisional dog, after all trends may be useful to put together with the regular capping, at the end as we have mentioned before the better spot you pick the greater% chance of winning IMO.Think the other way only bet vs dogs isn't really better, cause the odds are lower and there's often only a win by 1 run. To get a value odd you have to bet on the runline, haven't checked how the average win percentage of that is. Do you know it? Cause your record above, the most division games start after a division game. It's sure not 26,3%, also the alltime record is 48-50% you have seen above, so the win percentage goes over the whole game series.
What is with the rays, they're still the worst team in the division, although they had a long win series. I have checked the worst team in each division over the last years by espn for a short time, that team has mostly the worst record in the division. In the last 3 years only 1 team had a better record (2nd worst) in the same division. I see this so, the worst team is the punch-ball of the other teams, that's normal in team sports. If you're better you don't let the other team alive. Therefore I would bet vs these teams, would have bet on the rays too today.
So you prefer only bet vs dogs and after which system?
I wias thinking the same to run a test on dogs RL to see how had played out, I´ll let you know the outcome.Comment -
what's the code for "first game"?Comment -
2013 dogs when line is >0
Very Interesting IMO 38.6% ROI in Su and 22.2% on RL!!!!19-21 (-0.57, 47.5%) avg line: 197.6 / -227.3 on / against: +$1,546 / -$2,061 ROI: +38.6% / -22.7% 23-17 (0.70, 57.5%) avg line: 113.5 / -123.0 on / against: +$887 / -$1,101 ROI: +22.2% / -22.4% 20-19-1 (0.66, 51.3%) avg total: 8.3 over / under: -$80 / -$315 ROI: -1.8% / -7.1% Comment -
Divisional dogs with runline >0 2013 season
8-7 (-0.40, 53.3%) avg line: 197.0 / -224.7 on / against: +$906 / -$1,136 ROI: +60.4% / -33.7% 10-5 (1.10, 66.7%) avg line: 106.9 / -115.6 on / against: +$569 / -$656 ROI: +37.9% / -37.8% 7-8-0 (0.53, 46.7%) avg total: 8.1 over / under: -$165 / +$40 ROI: -10.0% / +2.4% Another great ROIComment -
fade the jays yes, they had a long winning series. it also could goes 5 games further you know? therefore I don't look after long series or how much wins team has. i only look on the division standings, who is on the last place and then I bet all teams excl. the last as a dog. the most games win after the 2nd game. but maybe it brings more profit with favourite, i don't know. what the point how to bet the two games? always the same stake it brings only if you bet on the 1st game only. do you bet always the same stake without martingale?Comment -
what's the code for runline and first game? please write the codes beside!Comment -
Nah not the same stake , not maringale neither, I use more kind of a Kelly way. And yes a dog that won previuos game in Divisio and the game being played is the last of the series has a good ROI% as well
24-26 (0.54, 48.0%) avg line: 139.6 / -152.0 on / against: +$869 / -$1,181 ROI: +17.4% / -15.5% 33-16 (1.99, 67.3%) avg line: -151.2 / 139.1 on / against: +$715 / -$930 ROI: +9.6% / -18.8% 25-22-2 (0.22, 53.2%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: +$155 / -$565 ROI: +2.9% / -10.3% Comment -
runline - as indicated
SG - series game
SG=1 first game of seriesComment -
sry, what you mean by >0? you wanted check dogs with rl? the odds of that are too low only 1 of 3 games can played with rl as a dog if you want value odds. all under -200 isn't only. it's almost the same if you play it without rl. so what you want? i am looking after favos with rl.
how it have to type -110 in the database? i dont get that.
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this is dog where Rl is greater than 0 (>0) meaning that even they are dogs the run line for dogs is +sry, what you mean by >0? you wanted check dogs with rl? the odds of that are too low only 1 of 3 games can played with rl as a dog if you want value odds. all under -200 isn't only. it's almost the same if you play it without rl. so what you want? i am looking after favos with rl.
how it have to type -110 in the database? i dont get that.Comment -
If you want to see dogs where even as a dog RL is + (simple words fading huge Divisional favs)
code is :
line>0 and runline>0 ......then you cand add DIV, season, Away or Home , many variablesComment -
sorry mate run line space between wordsComment -
got it with run_line, but how you come on this ROI?
... got it, thx. thought this were good but it's only for actual season, not over yet. last seasons is:
and 201126-51 (-1.58, 33.8%) avg line: 174.3 / -200.5 on / against: -$812 / +$207 ROI: -10.5% / +1.3% 30-47 (-0.94, 39.0%) avg line: 127.7 / -141.1 on / against: -$1,102 / +$700 ROI: -14.3% / +6.4% 38-35-4 (0.75, 52.1%) avg total: 8.3 over / under: +$15 / -$755 ROI: +0.2% / -8.8%
No good ROI over the seasons. I thought this cause I wanted say dogs on rl isn't good to play cause the odds value is very bad. The value is higher if only bet on win. I am going off now. Send you still pm, bye.20-37 (-1.49, 35.1%) avg line: 177.9 / -204.2 on / against: -$400 / -$45 ROI: -7.0% / -0.4% 33-24 (-0.52, 57.9%) avg line: 121.4 / -132.0 on / against: +$1,614 / -$1,944 ROI: +28.3% / -25.8% 27-25-5 (0.34, 51.9%) avg total: 8.4 over / under: -$95 / -$490 ROI: -1.5% / -7.8% Comment -
every now and then but dogs be barking loud around all-star breakComment
