Do favorites ever win in MLB???? Just curious......

[Dmoneytx]

I know they do, but baseball has got to be the most unpredictable sport to bet on. Besides Womens tennis or soccer I think. I have seen more favorites this year, and at times really big favorites, flat out lose. And lose bad. It seems to me like you could take the worst team in the majors (Astros a week ago maybe) and put them against the BEST team in baseball...........and honestly, it would be about a 50/50 game. Even if the line says -295 or lets say another game with other teams at -180, they are almost coin flips. I am learning that baseball is all about taking dogs ALL the time and you will most likely win over half your plays. Trying to learn baseball, just confuses me to no end.

For example, I took Royals small today. Not a big deal. But the CWS, playing horrible, losing to the Astros lately, Axelrod was shelled his last time out. Royals playing well, Shields getting hammered, at home, supposedly a really good pitcher???
Verlander today. I know Sch was amazing last night. But I'm sure the world took Detroit today, I just couldn't, and Verlander losing, giving up 4-5 runs or something. Tigers prob lose, but Boston is a good team.

I just see, day in and day out. The better teams. With better pitchers. At home. With better recent form. Lose. And they lose a lot. Any thoughts or opinions might help me in the future with playing around with baseball. I do tail a few people here, but it just makes me laugh at all the big teams, playing hot, that lose to the crap teams. Baseball, the only sport where you don't need to be in shape to be an "athlete", too funny

[matt1216]

Lol yup, bluejays favorites 9 out of last 11 and have won 11 straight

[Dmoneytx]

Lol yup, bluejays favorites 9 out of last 11 and have won 11 straight

I knew someone was gonna say Toronto , LOL!!! If you take out Toronto, that is probably it. LOL!!!

The point of the thread was not to name a specific team, but the generality that favs LOSE more than they win on average in baseball. I would LOVE to see a statistic where the Money Line's where only used to see the % of winners and losers as compared to the ML before the game started. I am almost willing to bet that HALF or possible more of the underdogs WIN the game outright. That to me, is coin flip on almost every baseball game. NO matter WHAT the line is, LOL!!!

[pulledclear]

[Tofudog]

Well.. Verlander wasn't so hot but the Tigers still have a great chance at winning. Royals just tied it up and also have a good chance at winning, especially because the White Sox get a lead and when the other team makes a push they still can't hit..

Favorites do win, and a lot of times they inflate the lines to -250 or something just to entice people to bet the dog or to layoff. If you pick the right spots, you will make money. Personally, Im probably like 9-1 on -200 or greater favs..

[Dmoneytx]

Another wonderfully insightful post by this moron. LOL!!! I love how the admins yanked your stupid, pathetic, desperate for attention comment in my thread the other day, LMAO!!! You think you are so clever You never have anything of value to say AND you post to hate on other people just so little old you can get a little attention...... Awwwwww. Like one of my kids, LOL!!!! Please, post another comment in my thread, I would LOVE to see you gone, poof!!! Hahaha. You are such a tool, haven't you figured it out yet??? Hilarious this guy. But sadder still, how pathetic the need for attention. Wow, some people, smh...

[Dmoneytx]

Well.. Verlander wasn't so hot but the Tigers still have a great chance at winning. Royals just tied it up and also have a good chance at winning, especially because the White Sox get a lead and when the other team makes a push they still can't hit..

Favorites do win, and a lot of times they inflate the lines to -250 or something just to entice people to bet the dog or to layoff. If you pick the right spots, you will make money. Personally, Im probably like 9-1 on -200 or greater favs..

I know, right when I throw this up, all the games change, LOL!!! But, the point was is that I want to learn baseball more than just tailing people. And that is a GREAT stat on the over -200's!!! 90% is fabulous, I am gonna have to check your thread out if you have one. Congrats on that small stat at least sir!!!

[NittanyLionsFan]

It's favourites*

Learn to spell before you post, dipshit.

[Big Bear]

Cardinals -190 is a lock.

[DeezusWINSTREAKT]

It's favourites*

Learn to spell before you post, dipshit.

Adding this to the nittany quote thread. Lmfao

[leetreaper]

Lol yup, bluejays favorites 9 out of last 11 and have won 11 straight

Blue Jays were DOGS 6 out of 11 games.

[riffraff24]

Ive seen faves dominate for a week and then dogs the next. Just pick your spots

[DeezusWINSTREAKT]

Blue Jays were DOGS 6 out of 11 games.

That's more what I was thinking closer towards. Favorites wasn't the majority

[DeezusWINSTREAKT]

Cardinals -190 is a lock.

Well see won't we?

[riffraff24]

If that game even happens tonight. Raining buckets

[DeezusWINSTREAKT]

The other day : Weaver lost -165 , Cueto lost around -160 , Iwakuma lost -120 or so, Guthrie lost -140 maybe. Braves lost to brewers -140 on road. Hamels lost as favorite

Kershaw lost at -180 or so...

.Giants lost game at night at home, -180.

Kershaw cueto Weaver and Giants vs marlins were all HUGE betting areas and got the books major dough

Garza and Strasburg did win as favorites. Garza maybe was -180

U got a point cuz some day it all happen at once.... I think any long term bettor notices stuff like this

Edit.cards also lost to rangers w Derek Holland but that was a great game pretty close. Big fav tho

[DeezusWINSTREAKT]

The books are the sharpest ones out them lines will confuse the hell outta ya

[Kevin Garnett]

In the divisional games (two teams same division) it's the chase that the underdogs at home win very often, ~ 55% of all home games. I wonder why here in the forum are so less system discussions for divisional games. If you wana get in touch of divisional games betting, here's a good thread for it: http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-b...underdogs.html

[Vinnie Paz]

All the value is on the dogs most time
Lots of value on dog team totals too

If you stick to betting dogs you'll mpre than likely come out on top. Now this doesn't mean go and blindy bet every +200 doggie but laying heavy #s on a regular basis won't get you anywhere. There's too many variables to pay that much juice(regularly) anyhow.

If you look into a game, a lot of them are just coin flips but you can get + odds on 1 side so take it. Sometimes the fav is a little better than the other team, but a lot of times not enough to justify the price, so the values on the dog. Once you get an understanding of pitchers you'll see a line and think, "how in the fukk is this guy -170 on the road?". Also you have to understand certain teams won't ever be a dog at home even though a lot of times they should. Tons of value betting against the angels, dodgers, just to name a few. The prices on them are absurd because everyone bets them and puts them in parlays, and they constantly lose, so why bother adjust the price right? Take the astros too, they shouldn't of even been a dog their last home stand vs the whitesox who play even worse than the astros do, but again they aren't making astros a favorite even at home. That's on you to figure out and realize. You can also find great value in quality teams stuck in a slump, think rangers in their current series vs the cardinals.

All in all, mlb betting is more about playing the market and finding value than anything. The "who wins this game today" approach won't work. Do some digging, find teams that are basically 50/50 and bet the plus. Like I said, don't be allergic to favorites, but imo be careful and make sure the price is justified

[hubbard689]

56.63% of the time currently. I believe it was about 60 a few weeks ago so dogs having a ball lately.

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/trends/league/season.html

[pulledclear]

Another wonderfully insightful post by this moron. LOL!!! I love how the admins yanked your stupid, pathetic, desperate for attention comment in my thread the other day, LMAO!!! You think you are so clever You never have anything of value to say AND you post to hate on other people just so little old you can get a little attention...... Awwwwww. Like one of my kids, LOL!!!! Please, post another comment in my thread, I would LOVE to see you gone, poof!!! Hahaha. You are such a tool, haven't you figured it out yet??? Hilarious this guy. But sadder still, how pathetic the need for attention. Wow, some people, smh...

[DeezusWINSTREAKT]

It's favourites*

Learn to spell before you post, dipshit.

Lol this f@g

[pazim]

One of the things is that most of the pitchers that performed well last year aren't playing at the same level this year. Verlander, weaver, price, dickey, pettite, cain, fister ,and sabathia have all had average year. Hamels has been worse. Halladay is getting old. Kershaw has been okay but brandon league has managed to ruin his outings. Cobin, wainwright, lee, latos, harvey, colon, buckholz, and iwakuma are the only ones performing good this year and they have been able to go more 7 or more innings, so it helps with the bullpen problems.

[DeezusWINSTREAKT]

One of the things is that most of the pitchers that performed well last year aren't playing at the same level this year. Verlander, weaver, price, dickey, pettite, cain, fister ,and sabathia have all had average year. Hamels has been worse. Halladay is getting old. Kershaw has been okay but brandon league has managed to ruin his outings. Cobin, wainwright, lee, latos, harvey, colon, buckholz, and iwakuma are the only ones performing good this year and they have been able to go more 7 or more innings, so it helps with the bullpen problems.

I can't wait for buccholz to come back.

Also on this list you can add Locke and Marquis. Marquis been on a diff team every year almost 10+ times and somehow this year he is just on one!!!

Id put lynn in there over wainwright but yea wain is legit too.


Zito is a big pitcher that fell off kinda this year too. And Hammel

[DeezusWINSTREAKT]

What about Hudson too..... HOW ARE ALL OF THEM SO BAD!!!!! When last year they were way better. Its like every one of em said f##k it this year

[Gus Fring]

Waino -185 bout to go down lol

[figue]

All the value is on the dogs most time
Lots of value on dog team totals too

If you stick to betting dogs you'll mpre than likely come out on top. Now this doesn't mean go and blindy bet every +200 doggie but laying heavy #s on a regular basis won't get you anywhere. There's too many variables to pay that much juice(regularly) anyhow.

If you look into a game, a lot of them are just coin flips but you can get + odds on 1 side so take it. Sometimes the fav is a little better than the other team, but a lot of times not enough to justify the price, so the values on the dog. Once you get an understanding of pitchers you'll see a line and think, "how in the fukk is this guy -170 on the road?". Also you have to understand certain teams won't ever be a dog at home even though a lot of times they should. Tons of value betting against the angels, dodgers, just to name a few. The prices on them are absurd because everyone bets them and puts them in parlays, and they constantly lose, so why bother adjust the price right? Take the astros too, they shouldn't of even been a dog their last home stand vs the whitesox who play even worse than the astros do, but again they aren't making astros a favorite even at home. That's on you to figure out and realize. You can also find great value in quality teams stuck in a slump, think rangers in their current series vs the cardinals.

All in all, mlb betting is more about playing the market and finding value than anything. The "who wins this game today" approach won't work. Do some digging, find teams that are basically 50/50 and bet the plus. Like I said, don't be allergic to favorites, but imo be careful and make sure the price is justified

[Kevin Garnett]

The most underdogs win in the divisional games. But why is nowhere a separate divisional games schedule? It really piss me off no matter which site you check there's only a whole schedule. Can someone tell me why is that so?

[Jago2008]

Guys don't bet on favorites its a waste of money in baseball, a lot of ppl would disagree with this statement, but totals (for me) is where its at in baseball.

There are just as many stats to show which direction a baseball game is going to go as far as runs are concerned, certain pitching matchups which will lean to total outcomes, and most importantly finding that niche in a rotation where one can predict batters will make more contact than others. Baseball teams generally have strong throwers mixed in with men in the rotation that throw a lot of off-speed pitches, just finding the right match-ups is everything.

I will continue to post my leans to totals.

[joco]

the first half of the season dogs win outright alot the last few years...second half of the season the teams that r supposed to win like the angels and tigers usually show up to try n make the playoffs

[Big Bear]

dogs barking alot lately.

[I/O]

Rays

[I/O]

Rays

forget it

Everyone's on them

[Artieaa]

Not everything is to bet on dogs, as someone already mentioned you gotta pick your spots here is record for dogs in this season:

468-610 (-0.44, 43.4%)	avg line: 133.1 / -144.7	on / against: -$295 / -$5,049	ROI: -0.3% / -3.2%
649-426 (1.03, 60.4%)	avg line: -155.0 / 142.6	on / against: +$321 / -$5,581	ROI: +0.2% / -5.1%
520-518-37 (0.37, 50.1%)	avg total: 8.1	over / under: -$4,280 / -$6,585	ROI: -3.6% / -5.5%

Betting blindly either side is not profitable!!!!

[Artieaa]

The most underdogs win in the divisional games. But why is nowhere a separate divisional games schedule? It really piss me off no matter which site you check there's only a whole schedule. Can someone tell me why is that so?

here is record for divisional dogs:

198-272 (-0.44, 42.1%)	avg line: 134.0 / -145.8	on / against: -$1,071 / -$1,248	ROI: -2.3% / -1.8%
281-188 (1.05, 59.9%)	avg line: -155.4 / 142.9	on / against: -$403 / -$1,900	ROI: -0.6% / -4.0%
228-222-19 (0.39, 50.7%)	avg total: 8.0	over / under: -$1,290 / -$3,045	ROI: -2.5% / -5.8%

then again you gotta pick spots!!!