Grinders Pathetic Team Chase

[Grinder12000]

This is a spin off of Stifflers chase - it's NOT back tested but has logic behind it. If you are following Stifflers chase (which is HOT) this is sort of like it and I cut and pasted his explanation. The goal is to win one unit and I'll explain the difference after the below

we are playing a 4 game chase to win 1 unit.

example: (with consistent lines)
A Bet line -170 , risk 1,7u to win 1u
game lost, it moves to B bet
B Bet line -170 , risk 4,59u to win 2,7u[the lost amount on A bet + 1 unit]
game lost, it moves to C bet
C Bet line -170 , risk 12,40u to win 7,29u[the lost amount on A & B bet + 1 unit]
game lost, it moves to D bet
D Bet line -170 , risk 33,49u to win 19,69u[the lost amount on A, B & C bet + 1 unit]
if D Bet is a loser then -52,18 units overall, if D Bet wins (or any other) u win 1 unit

Here is the difference - we are ONLY fading Houston and Miami. Start a new chase EVERY GAME. So be very conservative, if things go bad and Miami suddenly becomes hot (LOL) we could be in big trouble.

Miami has won more then 1 game in a row twice (2 and a 3 games in a row)
Houston has won more then 1 in a two 3 times (twice 2 and once 3)

So take this as a fun little thing. I got this idea from a dude that a couple years ago who faded Pittsburgh EVERY game and won a ton. According to Joe Peta (Trading Bases) after a team has played 40 games you pretty much know how good they are.

SO - here we go,

5/11/13 play the green team

note - 1.9 units wagered to win 1.00 units! If you lose you lose 1.9u, win you win 1.00u

G1A Mia fade LAD 1.9u - 1.00u
G2A Hou fade Tex 2.4u - 1.00u

WHO AM I?

I'm 60 years old and have been sports wagering since I was 18. My forte' is system play and knowing when to jump off the band wagon. Like poker, the key to winning is NOT losing! There are many winning systems and 99% of them fail at some point. So I believe taking the money and running once you make a profit and you feel the system is not behaving correctly.

Just like stocks - sell winners early before they become losers. Sure you might lose so win's but it's always better then riding a rocket until it explodes (or something like that).

NOTE - Stifflers Chase can be found here

[mrk77]

Was thinking to do the same with LAD after this series. Will be lurking, BOL!

[Grinder12000]

I got thinking of the Brewers also vs. Pittsburgh. The crew are like 40-7 against the Pirates. I might start a Brewer Chase Sunday vs. Cinci so it runs into the Pirates.

[bigtymer56]

Good luck. Should be pretty profitable. Been doing this with dodgers since mid april (Will continue until they show signs that they can score more than 3 runs a game). My only advice is be cautious when either of them is playing another terrible team at home. Even the sad sack astros of last year were able to string together a 2 or 3 sweeps at home.

[amarius87]

i like this!

[Grinder12000]

As I have learned in the 3 chases I have been involved in. They are pretty profitable until they become a nightmare. Remember. We COULD have a 60 unit "D" bet in a nightmare scenario.

60 is the largest I have ever seen (it won) but since we are playing BIG faves every game be very conservative wagering. (Yea, I'm stressing that).

[Grinder12000]

5/11/13

G1A Mia fade LAD 1.9u - 1.00u
G2A Hou fade Tex 2.4u - 1.00u

Record W2 L0 +2.00u

[Grinder12000]

5/12/13

G3A Mia fade LAD 1.63u - 1.00u
G4A Hou fade Tex 1.55u - 1.00u

going rogue*

G5A NYM fade Pitts 0.556u - 1.00u

*going rogue are chases I believe are profitable. Not sure how long I'll go with against the team but it just seems right.


Stifflers Chase

[Grinder12000]

5/12/13

RESULTS
G3A Mia fade LAD 1.63u - 1.00u
G4A Hou fade Tex 1.55u - 1.00u

going rogue

G5A NYM fade Pitts 0.556u - 1.00u

Record (Games - not chases*).
W 5 L 0 +5.00u
avg line 1.607

* I do not believe recording a chase as a win or loss. If you stopped right now - THAT is how your bankroll would be, not some future number.

[Spartacuss]

Grinder... Im doing a similar thing. If team A is 10% or better than team B, then I start a 3 game chase. But im only after one unit per 3 game series, so if tem A wins the 1st game, then thats the end. If team A loses the 1st game then onto the 2nd game and doubling up etc.

What do u guys think of that? Ive only started a few days ago and its good so far.

Question. How would u know when variance kicks in? How do u know when a good team goes bad, as compared to that good team just having a bad few days? Maybe some sort of visual graph would help. Sounds like a lot of work though, but making money is never easy.

[Snitch]

This looks awesome, Grinder. Been following your posts in Stiflers thread. Looks like your off to be best of starts!

Keep up the good work. Greetings from a newbie

[Grinder12000]

5/13/13
G7A Houston fade Det 3.00 - 1.00u (yikes)

going rogue

G6A NYMets fade St. Louis 1.85u - 1.00
G8A Texas 0.885u - 1.00u
G9A Washington 1.21u - 1.00u

Record (Games - not chases*).
W 5 L 0 +5.00u
avg line 1.607

example "G6A NYMets fade St. Louis 1.85u - 1.00u"

G6A = G for Grinder :-)
6 = chase #6
A = 1st game in the chase B, C,D are coming
highlighted team is the team to PLAY
1.85u = units I am wagering
1.00u - units I will be UP if victorious.

Grinder... I'm doing a similar thing. If team A is 10% or better than team B, then I start a 3 game chase. But i'm only after one unit per 3 game series, so if tem A wins the 1st game, then thats the end. If team A loses the 1st game then onto the 2nd game and doubling up etc.

I've charted all 30 teams, not looking at past years but only THIS year looking at teams that are streaky (San Fransisco - bad, Milwaukee - bad) and teams that are not streaky (Seattle - good). I also look at who the teams are playing NEXT, so it takes two teams to dance on this chase. Not just one.

Of the three chases I have followed (over 1500 wagers) what I did not like was that they were all locked into "rules". I've always felt that systems are made for people that do not want to blame themselves for losing money, they can blame the system (I am one of those people). OH - they do take credit for winning though LOL.

So this is a fusion, handicapping inside a system.

One more thing I did not like was when a chase works, they always stop. Chases are freaking aggressive in the first place so I say keep doing it until something tells you to stop.

And yes - I truly believe chases are a horrible way to gamble and anyone that says a Chase is stupid . . . is telling you the truth. HOWEVER, I've made money on all three and I believe I have learned a few things.

Note on lines - these are American lines - your lines may be different. I have 3 books and I'm just taking the best I can find in the morning - I will NOT have the best lines available.

[amarius87]

have any of you ever tried doing a rl chase with the good teams in the league? tigers, texas, nats, braves, stlouis, sanfran,( bluejays hopefully getting there). like from an above post, you do it per series. if the team covers then stop. Like tigers and texas when they win majority of the time they cover the rl. so for example taking tigers rl. if they cover you win your units, if not continue to win a unit or more. OR keep going pound them money line againast inferior pitchers win or lose?
I know ina previos post of mine somebody mentioned this, but i cant remeber who, so if they are reading this, please put your input in.
some you guys are stellar at winning and its awesome. and i am getting rocked badly these days, so decided im gonna try controlled betting.
I will be following this thread as the teams selected make sense and the system sounds legit so far. If my bets dont work, rather win by appreciating others systems and bets.

[Grinder12000]

Actually I don't do it per series, in fact that is what I want to get away from.

BUT to your question - I have thought of that and you bring up an interesting idea. One problem with a chase is that 1st game. If you lose that $$ just keeps getting added over and over again. IF you can get that 1st game to not be so expensive you can save a lot of stress down the road. I'll have to ponder that idea. R/L M/L M/L M/L or something like that.

The problem with a straight R/L chase is that while it's cheaper you not only have to not lose 4 times but now you have to WIN by 1.5 which increases the variance.

BTW run line losses
tigers have lost 5 in a row
Texas once
Nats twice including 6 in a row
Braves twice including 6 in a row
Cards 4 in a row once
Giants a 4 a 6 and a 4 in a row losses

[amarius87]

thats true what you say. nvr though of it that way! plus i guess the odds are different for run line every day. like forexample
tigers vs astros rl 1.74 today
then just for say, verlander pitching rl would be prolly 1.58-1.60
IF you lost the first bet you got to put even more down to recover.

maybe it would be better too chase such systems with texas and tigers for example with there 3 -5 pitchers ( especially fister and porcello) as the odds will be better. and say you lose the first game, play for the 5th starter next time out, then if you lose that wait till the next time around. because these teams do not play houston every day and are GOOD teams and will blow out opponents more often than not.
rangers with tepesch and grimm.
As you can see my focus is on the tigers and rangers, as they have that explosive offense compared to other teams in the league.
Giants braves and nats tend to have a lot of low scoring games due to the good pitching throughout there rotation putting less pressure on the hitters i think. compared to texas and detroit which have lose ends in their rotation and bp(tigers)
i might just test this out withthe 3 for 4 and 5 pitchers for both these teams and few of the other mentioned teams over the course of the rest of the month and back date it to the begiining and let you know what the results are. and post on here. but ill be following you forsure.

[laca07]

Grinder - You've earned a tab in my spreadsheet, let's roll.

[Grinder12000]

RESULTS 5/13/13 as of bedtime
G7A Houston fade Det 3.00 - 1.00u (yikes)

going rogue

G6A NYMets fade St. Louis 1.85u - 1.00
G8A Texas 0.885u - 1.00u
G9A Washington 1.21u - 1.00u

Record (Games - not chases*).
W 8 L 1 +7.12u

[Grinder12000]

5/14/13
too many plays for my liking but . . . . . No one says you have to play ALL of these (or any really) but this is what I'm playing.

G12A Houston fade (-125)Detroit RUN LINE 1.25u - 1.00u

G15A Miami fade (-160) Cinci 1.60u - 1.00

GOING ROGUE

G8B Texas 0.885u - 1.00u|(-115) Texas 2.162u - 1.885u (example 0.885u+1.00u=1.885u)

G10A (-109)Cleveland 1.09u - 1.00u

G11A Colo fade (-133)ChiCubs 1.033u - 1.00u

G13A NYMets fade (-158) St.Louis 1,58u - 1.00u

G14A (+112) San Franscisco 0.892u - 1.00u

[Grinder12000]

5/14/13 Results

G12A Houston fade (-125)Detroit RUN LINE 1.25u - 1.00u
G15A Miami fade (-160) Cinci 1.60u - 1.00
GOING ROGUE
G8B Texas 0.885u - 1.00u|(-115) Texas 2.162u - 1.885u
G10A (-109)Cleveland 1.09u - 1.00u
G11A Colo fade (-133)ChiCubs 1.330u - 1.00u
G13A NYMets fade (-158) St.Louis 1,58u - 1.00u
G14A (+112) San Franscisco 0.892u - 1.00u

Record (Games - not chases*).
W 12 L 4 +8.688u

[Grinder12000]

5/15/13

sorry for being out of order

G17A Miami fade (-182) Cinci 1.82u - 1.00u
G16A Hou fade (-165 Run Line) Detroit 1.65u - 1.00u

going rogue

G10B Cleveland -1.09u | (+155) Cleve 1.348u - 2.09u
G11B Colo fadeChiCubs -1.33*u | (-125) Chi Cubs 2.912u - 2.33u Miss-typed the units yesterday
G14B San Franscisco -0.892u | (+102) San Franscisco 1.854u - 1.892u
G18A Bost fade (-124) Tampa Bay 1.240u - 1.00u
G19A NyMets fade (-210) St. Louis 2.10u - 1.00u

Is this all making sense?

[Grinder12000]

5/15/13 Results

G17A Miami fade (-182) Cinci 1.82u - 1.00u
G16A Hou fade (-165 Run Line) Detroit 1.65u - 1.00u

going rogue

G10B Cleveland -1.09u | (+155) Cleve 1.348u - 2.09u
G11B Colo fadeChiCubs -1.33*u |(-125) Chi Cubs 2.912u - 2.33u
G14B San Franscisco -0.892u | (+102) San Franscisco 1.854u - 1.892u
G18A Bost fade (-124) Tampa Bay 1.240u - 1.00u
G19A NyMets fade (-210) St. Louis 2.10u - 1.00u

Record (Games - not chases*).
W 16 L 7 +10.364units

* I do not believe recording a chase as a win or loss. If you stopped right now - THAT is how your bankroll would be, losses "inside" a chase are counted.

[Grinder12000]

5/16/13

G16B Hous fade Friday

Play BOLD team (RISK - WIN)

G14C San Fran -0.892u |San Fran -1.854u | (-111) San Fran 4.158u - 3.746u (ex 0.892+1.854+1=3.746)
G18B Bost fade Tampa Bay -1.240u | (-149)Tampa Bay 3.336u - 2.24u * Had Minnesota - looking ahead!
G20A Mia fade (-171) Cincinnati 1.71u - 1.00u
G21A Milwaukee fade (-145) Pittsburgh 1.45u - 1.00u
G22A NYMets fade (-215) St. L Cards 2.15u - 1.00 NOTE - EARLY GAME

[Grinder12000]

5/16 Results

G14C San Fran -0.892u |San Fran -1.854u | (-111) San Fran 4.158u - 3.746u
G18B Bost fade Tampa Bay -1.240u | (-149)Tampa Bay 3.336u - 2.24u heart breaker
G20A Mia fade (-171) Cincinnati 1.71u - 1.00u
G21A Milwaukee fade (-145) Pittsburgh 1.45u - 1.00u
G22A NYMets fade (-215) St. L Cards 2.15u - 1.00

Record (Games - not chases*).
W 19 L 9 +10.624units

[Grinder12000]

5/17/13

Play BOLD team (RISK - WIN)

G16B Hou fade Detroit 1.65u - 1.00u | (-200) Pittsburgh 5.26u - 2.65u
G18C Bost fade Tampa Bay -1.240u|Tampa Bay -3.336u | (+150) Minnesota 3.717u - 5.57u
G22B NYMets fadeSt. L Cards -2.15u | (+125) ChiCubs 2.52u - 3.15u
G23A (-161) St. Louis 1.61u - 1.00u
G24A Mia fade (-155) Arizona 1.55u - 1.00u
G25A Oak fade ( -121) Kansas City 1.21u - 1.00u

[ticklz]

Hey Grinder,

Been following for a few days now and wanted to say first off thanks, and keep up the good work.

[Grinder12000]

thanks ticklz
5/17/13 RESULTS

G16B Hou fade Detroit 1.65u - 1.00u | Pittsburgh 5.26u - 2.65u
G18C Bost fade Tampa Bay -1.240u|Tampa Bay -3.336u | Minnesota 3.717u - 5.57u
G22B NYMets fadeSt. L Cards -2.15u |ChiCubs 2.52u - 3.15u
G23A St. Louis 1.61u - 1.00u
G24A Mia fadeArizona 1.55u - 1.00u
G25A Oak fadeKansas City 1.21u

Record (Games - not chases*).
W 22 L 12 +7.884 units

[rake922]

[Grinder12000]

5/18/13

Got some trouble brewing on the east coast!

G18D Bost fade TB -1.240u|TB -3.336u| Minn -3.717u| (+123) Minnesota 7.478u - 9.196u
G22C NYMets fade St. L -2.15u |ChiCubs -2.52u | ( -136) ChiCubs 7.718u - 5.67u EARLY
G25B Oak fade Kansas City -1.21u | (+125) Kansas City 1.811u - 2.21u
G26AHouston fade (-115 RUN LINE) Pittsburgh 1.15u - 1.00u
*G27A Mil fade (-161) St. Louis 1.61u - 1.00u
G28A Mia fade (-156) Arizona 1.56u - 1.00u
*G29 (-161) St. Louis 1.61u - 1.00u

Last minute - BOTH these teams are heading in opposite directions and meet my criteria - but both teams are not perfect if we get into games "C" and "D". I kept looking , am I fading the Brew crew (my team) or PLAYING the Cards. BOTH!!!

So let's get this done in two games.

Minnesota and the Cubs are both getting up there in units so those two are my main focus (especially Minnesota).

The Mets have not won 3 in a row this year yet

When I started the Red Sox fade they had lost 9 or this last 11 games - looking back I probably would not have started the Boston chase but the Twins were classic non streakers but then lost Mauer to injury!

Good luck all. this is why we go 4 games!

[Grinder12000]

5/18/13 Results

WELL, that certainly could have worked out better! Got some work to do now I see. Well, this is how chases go. Many small wins and one big loss.

G18D Bost fade TB -1.240u|TB -3.336u| Minn -3.717u| Minnesota -7.478u
G22C NYMets fade St. L -2.15u |ChiCubs -2.52u | ( -136) ChiCubs 7.718u - 5.67u
G25B Oak fade Kansas City -1.21u | Kansas City 1.811u - 2.21u
G26AHouston fade (-115 RUN LINE) Pittsburgh 1.15u - 1.00u
*G27A Mil fade St. Louis 1.61u - 1.00u
G28A Mia fade Arizona 1.56u - 1.00u
*G29 St. Louis 1.61u - 1.00u

Record (Games - not chases*).
W 24 L 17 +0.845 units

[Grinder12000]

5/19/13

* Oak fade chase lose 15.771 units!

The great experiment contnues! This is like forward testing except with money! Had a set back and I've now actually hardened my requirements.

G25C Oak fade KC -1.21u | KC -1.811u | (+146) Kansas City 2.754u - 4.02u
G26B Houston fade Pittsburgh -1.15u | (-178) Pitts 3.83u - 2.152u
G27B Mil fade St. Louis -1.61u | (-114) St. Louis 2.976u - 2.61u
G29B St. Louis -1.61u |(-114) St. Louis 2.976u - 2.61u
G30A LAD fade (-183) Atlanta 1.83u - 1.00u
G31A Mia fade (-144) Arizona 1.44u - 1.00u
G32A (-138) Cincinnati 1.38u - 1.00u
G33A (+104) Cleveland 0.962u - 1.00u
G34A (-117) Texas 1.17u - 1.00u

Seriously - I DID really harden my requirements!

about the lines - I have three books, INTERTOPS, 5Dimes and Bovoda and take the best line of the three

5Dimes gets 70% of the wagers, INTERTOPS 25% and Bovoda 5%. Bovoda really screws you if you bet favs


My philosophy on back testing

I do not believe in back testing. I think that too many times you will get the results you WANT as opposed to real results. My theory is if you have a logical idea, play it out in real time. THAT way you really get to see the nuances of a system and gain a greater understanding of the good and bad parts are, then you can adjust.

Back testing you learn nothing because you can go through 10 days in an hour - your brain does not have a chance to really ponder the details.

[Grinder12000]

5/19/13 Results

G25C Oak fade KC -1.21u | KC -1.811u | Kansas City -2.754u
G26B Houston fade Pittsburgh -1.15u | Pitts 3.83u - 2.152u
G27B Mil fade St. Louis -1.61u | St. Louis 2.976u - 2.61u
G29B St. Louis -1.61u |St. Louis 2.976u - 2.61u
G30A LAD fade Atlanta 1.83u - 1.00u
G31A Mia fade Arizona -1.44u
G32A Cincinnati -1.38u
G33A Cleveland 0.962u - 1.00u
G34A Texas 1.17u - 1.00u

Record (Games - not chases*).
W 30 L 20 +5.652 units

[Wallco99]

My philosophy on back testing

I do not believe in back testing.

I totally disagree.

[Grinder12000]

Maybe I put that to bluntly. I know we disagree on this but YOUR back testing is fine. If you take an entire league and don't start cherry picking teams to get the best results AND THEN believe that those best results will automatically continue.

Your NHL system is a perfect example of GOOD back testing. I assume you took an idea that had good logic behind it, back tested and the results came through.

But you COULD have found that "left handed goalies after back to back road games are 76-2" and therefore we now have a chase. THAT is the kind of thing many gamblers will see and go WOW - 76-2 - this is going to be easy.

So I will back track - I do believe in back testing - HOWEVER - I feel MANY MANY sports wagerers are poor at back testing and forget it's good old fashion logic that is the key.


UNLESs you totally disagree that 5Dimes gets most of my wagers. :-)

BTW - you didn't have to quote the ENTIRE box there - LOL

[Grinder12000]

5/20/13

G25D Oak fade KC -1.21u | KC -1.811u | KC -2.754u | (-122) Texas 7.004u - 5.774u
G31B Mia fade Arz -1.44u | (-178) Philly 4.344u - 2.55u
G32B Cinci -1.38u |(-156) Cincinnati 3.732u - 2,38u
G35A (+110) Cleveland 0.909u - 1.00u
G36A LADodgers fade (+125) Milwaukee 0.800u - 1.00u
G37A (-122) Texas 1.220u - 1.00u

[Grinder12000]

5/20/13 Resullts

G25D Oak fade KC -1.21u | KC -1.811u | KC -2.754u | Texas -7.004u
G31B Mia fade Arz -1.44u | Philly -4.344u
G32B Cinci -1.38u | Cincinnati +2,38u
G35A Cleveland +1.00u
G36A LADodgers fade(Milwaukee -0.800u
G37A Texas -1.220u

Record (Games - not chases*).
W 32 L 24 -4.556 units