Grinders Pathetic Team Chase

[Grinder12000]

5/21/13

G31C Mia fade Arz -1.44u | Philly -4.344u | Philly (-110) 7.462u - 6.784u
G36B LADodgers fade Milwaukee -0.800u | Milwaukee 1.428u - 1.800u
G37B Texas -1.220u | Texas 4.662u - 22.200u
G38A Cleveland 0.833u - 1.00u
G39A Cinci 1.125u - 1.00u

[Grinder12000]

5/21/13 Results

G31C Mia fade Arz -1.44u | Philly -4.344u | Philly 7.462u - 6.784u
G36B LADodgers fade Milwaukee -0.800u | Milwaukee 1.428u - 1.800u
G37B Texas -1.220u | Texas -4.662u
G38A Cleveland -0.833u
G39A Cinci 1.125u - 1.00u

Record (Games - not chases*).
W 35 L 26 -3.856 units

[Grinder12000]

5/22/13

G37C Texas -1.220u | Texas -4.662u | Texas 8.228 - 6.882u
G38B Cleveland -0.833u | Cleveland 1.379u - 1.833u
G40A Cincinnati 1.000u - 1.000u COOL!
G41AMiami fade Philly 1.650u - 1.00u
G42A NYMets fadeCinci 1.00u - 1.00u
G43ASeattle fade LAA 1.760 - 1.00ou
G44A Philly 1.650u - 1.00u

[Grinder12000]

5/22/13 Results

G37C Texas -1.220u | Texas -4.662u | Texas +6.822u
G38B Cleveland -0.833u | Cleveland -1.379u
G40A Cincinnati +1.000u
G41AMiami fade Philly +1.00u
G42A NYMets fadeCinci +1.00u
G43ASeattle fade LAA +1.00ou
G44A Philly 1.650u +1.00u

Record (Games - not chases*).
W 41 L 26 +6.644 units

[CrazyCarl]

Good luck Grinder

[CrazyCarl]

But you COULD have found that "left handed goalies after back to back road games are 76-2" and therefore we now have a chase. THAT is the kind of thing many gamblers will see and go WOW - 76-2 - this is going to be easy.

Yeah, some of these filters are really ridiculous and often don't serve any purpose other than making seasons that already happened artificially look better than what should actually be expected.

[Grinder12000]

5/23/13

G38C Cleveland -0.833u | Cleveland -1.379u | Cleveland 2.398 - 3.213
G45A KC fade LAA 0.27u - 1.00u
G46A Pittsburgh 1.380u - 1.00u

[Grinder12000]

I did some back testing of this year using the current system I'm playing now. While I have lose 5 D games I would still be up 40 units. The big difference is that I play more dogs then other chases. So my average total loss for a chase is only 15 total units.

Since I started this a week ago and had two Chase losses already I was a little concerned. However I did see that both losses were, in fact in the 15 total unit range.

Confidence is high. Bring on the rest of the season.

[Grinder12000]

5/23/13 Results

G38C Cleveland -0.833u | Cleveland -1.379u | Cleveland +3.21
G45A KC fade LAA +1.00u
G46A Pittsburgh +1.00u

Record (Games - not chases*).
W 44 L 26 +11.856 units

Not bad for 12 days and 2 "D" game losses!

[Grinder12000]

5/24/13

Probably jinxing myself for posting this . . . and then jinxing myself again for typing the work "jinx" . . . now three times.

I've been playing several Chases with a friend and we have been putting more and more $ on this one - he writes.

Your system will be best.


When betting greyhounds, often I change my mind/bet at the last second as I'd notice something missed in my earlier analysis. Others would give me a hard time believing your first impression is best and what if your initial bet comes in. I've always felt everything needs to be continually looked at and improved. You do that too. That's why I believe in you. You will run numbers until completely satisfied and make your system work. And then a month later, you'll come across other theories, test them and improve your current methods if they prove true.

So I did a lot of back checking (not testing) and here is what I found

Ogf course W-L is sort of meaningless without the line but I THINK I play about 30% dogs - I'll have to check.

Chase game W and L
Game "A" 71 - 52
Game "B" 26 - 26
Game "C" 13 -13
Game "D" 9-5* average loss was 15 total units

Total 119 - 90

Each CHASE loss average about 15 units over the 4 games so (119 - (15*5)) = 44 units over the season so far.

ANYWAY - that is where I'm coming from - I HOPE that not sound like a brag or anything as this IS an experiment.

5/24/13 GAMES

G47A Cinci: Cinci 1.45 - 1.00
G48A KC fade: LAA 1.11 - 1.00
G49A Mil fade: Pittsburgh 1.01 - 1.00
G50A Mia fade: CHiSox 1.74 - 1.00
G51A Minn fade: Detroit RUN LINE 1.10 - 1.00
G52A NYMets fade: Atlanta 1.61 - 1.00
G53A Pitts: Pittsburgh 1.01 - 1.00
G54A Tex: Texas 1.09 - 1.00

Of course not one dog among those LOL

AND I am NOT competing against Stiffler or any other Chases. Seriously I just cound not stand other people do work with numbes and had some ideas after doing 4 other chases in my life.

[Wallco99]

5/24/13

Ogf course W-L is sort of meaningless without the line but I THINK I play about 30% dogs - I'll have to check.

Chase game W and L
Game "A" 71 - 52
Game "B" 26 - 26
Game "C" 13 -13
Game "D" 9-5* average loss was 15 total units

Total 119 - 90

Each CHASE loss average about 15 units over the 4 games so (119 - (15*5)) = 44 units over the season so far.

I don't think your numbers are accurate. For starters, when playing a four game chase to win 1 unit, the LOWEST possible loss is 15 units, not the AVERAGE loss. And since you don't play dogs or many R/L wagers, your smallest loss will be significantly higher than 15 units, it not only will not average 15 units, but you will also never be that low. So those 5 losses you mention need to be multiplied by a much larger number.

[Grinder12000]

but I THINK I play about 30% dogs

. And since you don't play dogs

hmmmmmmm - not sure what you are talking about there.

the LOWEST possible loss is 15 units

what? where does THAT math come from! The two chases I lost on this thread were 15 and 12 units! Are you saying that if you lose 4 dogs in a row it is impossible to lose less then 15 units? Put down the pipe Wallco!

Not that I have to defend myself but what Wallco said was so stupid!

Atlanta: -125 (lose 1.25)| +125 (lose 1.80) | -115 (lose 2.90) | +140 (lose 4.96) total -10.91
Milwaukee -140 (lose 1.40) | -101 (lose 2.42) | -112 (lose 5.39) | +118 (lose 8.65) total 17.86
Oakland +105 (lose 0.95) | +125 (lose 1.56) | -112 (lose 3.93)| +118 (lose 6.31) total 12.74
Oakland FADE -114 (lose 1.14) | +125 (lose 1.71)| +153 (lose 2.52) | -133 (lose 8.46) total 13.83
Sad Diego FADE -120 (lose 1.20) | -110 (lose 2.42) | -111 (lose 5.12) | -133 (lose 12.95) total 21.89

(10.91+17.86+12.74+13.83+21.89)=77.23
77.23 / 5 = 15.44

Notice 8 of the 20 losses were dogs! So don't give me crap about never playing dogs!

My numbers are accurate (within reason).

[Grinder12000]

5/24/13 Partial results

G47A Cinci: Cinci 1.45 - 1.00
G48A KC fade: LAA 1.11 - 1.00
G49A Mil fade: Pittsburgh 1.01 - 1.00
G50A Mia fade: CHiSox 1.74 - 1.00
G51A Minn fade: Detroit RUN LINE 1.10 - 1.00
G52A NYMets fade: Atlanta 1.61 - 1.00 FINAL - A TIE!!! all bets canceled! at least my two are
G53A Pitts: Pittsburgh 1.01 - 1.00
G54A Tex: Texas 1.09 - 1.00

Record (Games - not chases*).
W 49 L 28 +14.836 units - sorry - correction - I upped my wagers but had the wrong units on my spread sheet

[Wallco99]

hmmmmmmm - not sure what you are talking about there.



what? where does THAT math come from! The two chases I lost on this thread were 15 and 12 units! Are you saying that if you lose 4 dogs in a row it is impossible to lose less then 15 units? Put down the pipe Wallco!

Not that I have to defend myself but what Wallco said was so stupid!

Atlanta: -125 (lose 1.25)| +125 (lose 1.80) | -115 (lose 2.90) | +140 (lose 4.96) total -10.91
Milwaukee -140 (lose 1.40) | -101 (lose 2.42) | -112 (lose 5.39) | +118 (lose 8.65) total 17.86
Oakland +105 (lose 0.95) | +125 (lose 1.56) | -112 (lose 3.93)| +118 (lose 6.31) total 12.74
Oakland FADE -114 (lose 1.14) | +125 (lose 1.71)| +153 (lose 2.52) | -133 (lose 8.46) total 13.83
Sad Diego FADE -120 (lose 1.20) | -110 (lose 2.42) | -111 (lose 5.12) | -133 (lose 12.95) total 21.89

(10.91+17.86+12.74+13.83+21.89)=77.23
77.23 / 5 = 15.44

Notice 8 of the 20 losses were dogs! So don't give me crap about never playing dogs!

My numbers are accurate (within reason).

Nevermind, it appears you are ALWAYS playing to win 1 unit, even on the +money bets. I didn't realize that. In all my systems, I play to WIN 1 unit in all (-money bets) and play to RISK 1 unit in all +money bets, thus netting me much more than 1 unit profit when I win, and ALWAYS costing 15 units when a +money series loses. I didn't realize you were putting 1 unit at risk regardless of the line, sorry. If you were playing it my way the those numbers would have been impossible, and your win amount would have been much larger than the 119 for the 119 wins. Sorry.

[Wallco99]

Atlanta: -125 (lose 1.25)| +125 (lose 1.80) | -115 (lose 2.90) | +140 (lose 4.96) total -10.91
Milwaukee -140 (lose 1.40) | -101 (lose 2.42) | -112 (lose 5.39) | +118 (lose 8.65) total 17.86
Oakland +105 (lose 0.95) | +125 (lose 1.56) | -112 (lose 3.93)| +118 (lose 6.31) total 12.74
Oakland FADE -114 (lose 1.14) | +125 (lose 1.71)| +153 (lose 2.52) | -133 (lose 8.46) total 13.83
Sad Diego FADE -120 (lose 1.20) | -110 (lose 2.42) | -111 (lose 5.12) | -133 (lose 12.95) total 21.89

However, in your Atlanta example, your numbers do appear to be wrong. If you lost 1.25 u and 1.8u on your (A) and (B) bets, then how could you possibly only lose 2.9u on your (C) bet, when the minimum bet to WIN 1 unit would have been 4.05 units @ -115, and that loss would have cost 4.7 units, which also would have made your (D) bet wager much higher as well.

[Grinder12000]

No worries Wallco! I had to think there was a mis-understanding somewhere! I know we are both anal on accuracy (up to a point)

And you are correct - "C" woud be -4.65 -13.91 - - - it was the IPA doing the calculating on that one last night!

In all my systems, I play to WIN 1 unit in all (-money bets) and play to RISK 1 unit in all +money bets, thus netting me much more than 1 unit profit when I win, and ALWAYS costing 15 units when a +money series loses.

I'll have to digest that one once I get more coffee in me.

[Wallco99]

No worries Wallco! I had to think there was a mis-understanding somewhere! I know we are both anal on accuracy (up to a point)

And you are correct - "C" woud be -4.65 -13.91 - - - it was the IPA doing the calculating on that one last night!



I'll have to digest that one once I get more coffee in me.

No problem, I love numbers.

[Grinder12000]

5/25/13

BTW - if any of you are members of UNTAPPD (notice spelling) feel free to friend me (Rod Melotte) - great Beer app/website for recording what you are drinking. :-) I'm a home brewer and try to drink as many different beer as I can - Treasurer Sun Prairie Wort Hogs .
-------------------------

G49B Mil fade: Pittsburgh -1.01 | (+119) Pitts 1.69 - 2.01
G53B Pitts: Pittsburgh -1.01 | (+119) Pitts 1.69 - 2.01
G55A Cinci:Cincinatti 1.70 - 100u
G56 KC fade: LAAngels 0.92 - 1.oo
G57A Mia fade: ChiSox 2.10 - 1.00
G58A Minn fade: Det RUN LINE 1.20 - 1.00
G60A St.L: St. Louis 1.01 - 1.00
G61A Tex: Texas 0.862 - 1.00

Note - I'm skipping the NYM fade because of weirdness with the continuation game - my wagers were canceled last night.

[Grinder12000]

5/25/13 partial Results

G49B Mil fade: Pittsburgh -1.01 | (+119) Pitts +2.01
G53B Pitts: Pittsburgh -1.01 |(+119) Pitts +2.01
G55A Cinci:Cincinatti +1.00u
G56 KC fade: LAAngels +1.00u
G57A Mia fade: ChiSox +1.00u
G58A Minn fade: Det RUN LINE 1.20 - 1.00 Lost outright
G60A St.L: St. Louis -1.01
G61A Tex: Texas +1.00

Record (Games - not chases*).
W 55 L 30 +20.646 units

AFTER TWO WEEKS! Best kept secret in town! :-)

[Grinder12000]

5/26/13 Start of Week #3

RISK - to WIN

G58B Minn fade: Det RUN LINE -1.20 | Det RUN LINE (-115) 2.53 - 2.20u
G60B St.L: St. Louis -1.01 | St. Louis (+137) 1.46 - 2.01

G62A ChiCubs fade: Cinci 1.83 - 1.00
G63A Cinci : Cinci 1.83 - 1.00
G64A KC fade: LAA 1.24 - 1.00
G65A Milwaukee fade: Pitts 0.893 - 1.00
G66A Mia fade: ChiSox 1.95 - 1.00
G67A NYMet fade: Atl 1.30 - 1.00 **
G68A Texas: Texas 0.95 - 1.00
G69A Pitts: Pitts 0.91 - 1.00

** little pissed as the NYMet fade DIDN'T bring me two more chase victories. Friday night was canceled and with the weirdness of 2 games on Saturday I felt it better to wait it out. Like a strange poker hand - it's always better to NOT play if there is weirdness.
--------

[Grinder12000]

5/26/13 results

g58b minn fade: det run line -1.20 | det run line +2.20u
g60b st.l: st. Louis -1.01 | st. Louis +2.01

g62a chicubs fade: cinci -1.83
g63a cinci : cinci -1.83
g64a kc fade: laa +1.00
g65a milwaukee fade: pitts +1.00
g66a mia fade: chisox +1.00
g67a nymet fade: atl -1.30
g68a texas: texas -0.95
g69a pitts: pitts +1.00

Record (Games - not chases*).
W 61 L 34 +22.987 units

[Grinder12000]

5/27/13 Happy Memorial Americans

Memorial Day is a day of remembering the men and women who died while serving in the United States Armed Forces. Formerly known as Decoration Day, it originated after the American Civil War to commemorate the Union and Confederate soldiers who died in the Civil War.

g62B chicubs fade: cinci -1.83 | ChiWSox (-117)3.29u - 2.818u
g63B cinci : cinci -1.83 | Cinci (-135) 3.80u - 2.8.8u
g67B nymet fade: atl -1.30 |(NYYankees (-115) 2.648u - 2.302u
g68B texas: texas -0.95 | Texas (+108) 1.788u - 1.932 * GAME #1

G70A KC fade: St. Louis 1.13u - 1.00u
G71A Minn fade : Milwaukee 1.32u - 1.00u
G72A Mia fade: Tampa Bay 1.80u - 1.00u
G73A Pitts: Pittsburgh 0.581u - 1.00u

G68C (Game 2 of DH) OR G74A (on steroids) Texas 3.848 - 2.788u

Texas has a DH today so weirdness prevails - IF Texas Wins game #1 I start a new Chase on Game #2

HOWEVER - if Texas loses they we need to make a wager in Game #2 and of course now we ned to be aware of what is going on during the day which is not the easiest.

I am assuming Texas will lose Game #1 and placing a "C" bet on Game #2

SO - if Texas wins #1 and loses #2 then we have a small problem but with ARZ/ARZ/KC coming up I'm pretty confidant we can win G74A on steroids.

[Grinder12000]

5/27/13 Prelim RESULTS

g62B chicubs fade: cinci -1.83 | ChiWSox -3.29u
g63B cinci : cinci -1.83 | Cinci (-135) +2.88u
g67B nymet fade: atl -1.30 |NYYankees -2.648u
g68C texas: texas -0.95 | Texas (+108) -1.788u | Texas -3.848

G70A KC fade: St. Louis +1.00u
G71A Minn fade : Milwaukee -1.32u
G72A Mia fade: Tampa Bay +1.00u
G73A Pitts: Pittsburgh -0.581u

Record (Games - not chases*).
W 64 L 40 +14.321 units

[Grinder12000]

5/28/13

Always seems like Baseball chases go in streaks. I've been waiting for a streak like this. It's like you never know how good a chase is until you weather a few of these.

Like poker. You never know how good you are until you have a bad streak.

g68D texas: texas -0.95 | Texas -1.788u | Texas -3.848 | TEX oops - plays tomorrow

g62C chicubs fade: cinci -1.83 | ChiWSox -3.29u |ChiSox 8.41u - 4.55u POSTPONED
g67C nymet fade: atl -1.30 |NYYankees -2.648u | NYYankees -4.25u

G71B Minn fade : Milwaukee -1.32u | Milwaukee 2.74u - 2.32u
G73B Pitts: Pittsburgh -0.581u | Pittsburgh +1.58u

G74A Cinci: Cinci +1.00
G75A KC fade: St.L +1.00u
G76A Mia fade: Tampa Bay RUN LINE -1.10

[Grinder12000]

5/28/13 results

g68D texas: texas -0.95 | Texas -1.788u | Texas -3.848 | TEX oops - plays tomorrow

g62C chicubs fade: cinci -1.83 | ChiWSox -3.29u |ChiSox 8.41u - 4.55u POSTPONED
g67C nymet fade: atl -1.30 |NYYankees -2.648u | NYYankees -4.25u

G71B Minn fade : Milwaukee -1.32u | Milwaukee -2.74u
G73B Pitts: Pittsburgh -0.581u | Pittsburgh +1.58u

G74A Cinci: Cinci +1.00
G75A KC fade: St.L +1.00u
G76A Mia fade: Tampa Bay RUN LINE -1

Record (Games - not chases*).
W 67 L 43 +9.836 units

[Grinder12000]

5/29/13 YIKES The SH|T HITS THE FAN TODAY

WOW - I feel I'm getting snake bit a little. So it goes.

So much for cheap "D" games

g68D texas: texas -0.95 | Texas -1.788u | Texas -3.848 | TEX (-133) 10.02u - 7.568u
g67D nymet fade: atl -1.30 |NYYankees -2.648u | NYYankees -4.25u |NYYankees (-168) 15.50u - 9.201u

g62C chicubs fade: cinci -1.83 | ChiWSox -3.29u |ChiSox |(+115) 3.956u - 4.500u
G71C Minn fade : Milwaukee -1.32u | Milwaukee -2.74u | Milwaukee (-109) 5.556u - 5.104u

G76B Mia fade: Tampa Bay RUN LINE -1.00| Tampa Bay (-150) 3.15u - 2.100u

G77A Cinci : Cinci 0.781u - 1.00u
G78A KC fade: St. Louis 1.94u - 1.00u
G79A Pitts: Pitts 1.00u - 1.00u
G80A St. Louis : St. Louis 2.00u - 1.00u

[bigtymer56]

Phelps did his best to bury everybody who took the yankees tonite.

[Grinder12000]

5/29 Pathetic results

THANK YOU YANKEES!!

g68D texas: texas -0.95 | Texas -1.788u | Texas -3.848 | TEX (-133) 10.02u - 7.568u
g67D nymet fade: atl -1.30 |NYYankees -2.648u | NYYankees -4.25u |NYYankees -15.50u
g62C chicubs fade: cinci -1.83 | ChiWSox -3.29u |ChiSox -3.956u
G71C Minn fade : Milwaukee -1.32u | Milwaukee -2.74u | Milwaukee -5.556u
G76B Mia fade: Tampa Bay RUN LINE -1.00| Tampa Bay +2.100u
G77A Cinci : Cinci -0.781u
G78A KC fade: St. Louis +1.00u
G79A Pitts: Pitts +1.00u
G80A St. Louis : St. Louis +1.00u

Record (Games - not chases*).
W 71 L 47 -10.869 units

[Grinder12000]

5/30/13

ALL RIGHTY THEN!! NO STRESS!!!! (insert evil laugh) So much for this being a kinder Chase - this sucks!

I now LOATH inter-league rival games - getting sucked into the vortex - LESSON LEARNED

g62D chicubs fade: cinci -1.83 | ChiWSox -3.29u |ChiSox -3.956u | ChiSox -11.15
G71D Minn fade : Milwaukee -1.32u | Milwaukee -2.74u | Milwaukee -5.556u | Milwaukee 13.31 - 10.66
g68D texas: texas -0.95 | Texas -1.788u | Texas -3.848 | TEX +7.57u

G77B Cinci : Cinci -0.781u | Cinci 2.19 - 1.78u

G81A KC fade: St. Louis 1.61 - 1.00
G82A Mia fade: Tampa Bay 1.55 - 1.00u
G83A Pitts: Pitts 0.95u - 1.00u
G84A St. Louis: St. Louis 1.61u - 1.00u

[Grinder12000]

Going down in a flame of glory!!

And thus why I urged all to be VERY conservative.

[bigtymer56]

Remind me to stay away from interleague baseball next year. These last 4 days wiped out almost 2 weeks of profits. Really got caught with my pants down on the Subway series.

[Grinder12000]

All of these inter league rivalry series are killing me. Who knew teams that had won 6 out of 23 games would all of a sudden get hot against their rivalries (sp?)

[Grinder12000]

5/30/13 Pathitic Results

WELL NOW - I'm going to keep this up just to see where I end up. As we have seen chases go up as fast as they go down and we are REALLY down.

And remember - I never made any claims for brilliance lOL F*cking interleague rivals

g62D chicubs fade: cinci -1.83 | ChiWSox -3.29u |ChiSox -3.956u | ChiSox -11.15
G71D Minn fade : Milwaukee -1.32u | Milwaukee -2.74u | Milwaukee -5.556u | Milwaukee -13.31
g68D texas: texas -0.95 | Texas -1.788u | Texas -3.848 | TEX +7.57u

G77B Cinci : Cinci -0.781u | Cinci -1.19

G81A KC fade: St. Louis -1.61
G82A Mia fade: Tampa Bay +1.00u
G83A Pitts: Pitts 0.95u +1.00u
G84A St. Louis: St. Louis -1.61u

Record (Games - not chases*).
W 74 L 52 -31.286 units

[Grinder12000]

5/31/13

G77B Cinci : Cinci -0.781u | Cinci -1.19 | Cinci ( +106) 2.80u - 2.267
G84A St. Louis: St. Louis -1.61u | St. Louis (-145) 3.78 - 2.61u
G85A Pitts: Pitts 1.10u - 1.00u
G86A Mil fade: Philly 1.26u - 1.00u
G87A Mia fade: NYMets 1.39u - 1.00u

[Grinder12000]

Just a heads up - this thread is dead - the numbers are not working out and I'm pulling the plug on this experiment.