Today's play is on previous page.
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Comment -
Hate that I'm against you on Pitt with liriano tonight. At least one of us will win BOL neutral.Comment -
1-1 day is really pissing me off.Comment -
146-120 [+124.94 units]
LAA/Sea Under 7.5 [2.05] [3x]
Nyy/TB Under 7.5 [1.80] [3x] [Getting 7 is okay too]
NFLX
Lean Saint/Houston Over
No more pre season plays for me, wait for the real thing to startComment -
Strong Leans:
Hou on RL & ML
LAA parlayed with Under - LAA's BP is turning for the better
Lean Was parlayed with Under [Haren's sinker ball working but may not last] [however this game could go over with KC's BP work]. This could another game were strategy to play 2 seperate correlated parlay and still make profit with Was & Under, Was & Over because i don't see kc winning.
Minn/Clev under 8.5
Pitt ML & RL [Metrics was very good to fade Pitt yesterday, not today, SF's 6 run salvo was an aberration, don't bite on the dog]Comment -
I am going to regret not wagering on Minn/Clev under, "should have listened to my work", with both SP looking sharp, neither team figures to get much out of the BP with the 2 teams in top 10 BP for week's work.Comment -
Next 1-1 day... Maybe you shoud just put 3 bets :>
Comment -
May be not.Comment -
I cannot believe that Pitt can't muster a run against vogelsong. Hard to watch this Tm hahaha.Comment -
pit is still for taking ?Comment -
147-121 [+124.34 units]
Phi/Metz Under 7 [1.83] [5x]
TB/KC under 8.5 [2.15] [3x]
Cinn/Stl under 8.5 [2.00] [3x]Comment -
Leans:
KC & Under - KC BP got much better towards the end of Was series, TB's BP is more than solid, i don't see a shootout in a make-up game.
Tex & Over - Blackey pitching over his head in his last 3 starts, someone will get to him hard soon, Saunder figures to pitch little better than recent starts however he has a shoddy BP behind him to ensure a loss.
SF/Col Under: I think this game creep under the 10.5 just, it is very dicey, taking Zito on RL is out of the question even with better BP because numbers simply implies SF outright win or Col covering RL, i see more 4-6 Col than SF win.
Nyy/Tor Under: TB came at a bad time for Nyy to ruin slight hopes of playoff, offensive rhythms built looks gone, Tor not pulling up trees either, key players dropping like fly. I think we will see the better Dickey today.
Hou/CWS: The gift and curse in one, Ober going 1st time against CWS but he hanged a few in the middle of the plate against LAA, so his control could get worse or it could be aberration.Comment -
Last 2 plays added, have cash filled day guys.Comment -
Will be a cash filled day if you picks come in.
Line Move: TB/KC is now under 9. Its never a good sign when the line moves in your favor. But I did the 3X on it anyway at 9.
Good luck everyone.Comment -
Tailed them all. Tv vs kc is up to 9.Comment -
I think its pretty easy to see now why the line moved. Hellickson put his whole paycheck on the over.
Very sad.
Update:
Crap!! Guess we see why sharp money went on the over and moved the lines.
O well, it still can be a winning day for us if the next 2 work out better.
I suggest everyone try to shake this loss off the best they can and enjoy the next 2 games.Comment -
Men this is frustrating, right ideas but wrong plays, on side when i should be on total or vice versa.Comment -
Sucky day in more then betting. Least our 5 unit should hold up. If it don't, going to quit gambling for a while.
I think you will get it going your way again soon. I do appreciate your work. Can imagine the frustration on bad streaks.Comment -
148-123 [+122.49 units]
Cinn/Stl Over 8 [1.91] [3%] - Slight edge in SP for Cincy however their BP is nothing to write about and now part of it has been used yesterday, also Stl generally hit Latos well but they didn't get him their last contest [won't be so lucky today]. Kelly isn't pitching well. Like this over lots.
Stl & Over parlay [4.03] [1%]: How can you take Cin on road or to make it worse against >500 team unless spot, SP metrics, BP and hitting in their favour. [Note you will need Books that take correlated parlays for this, few Books take correlated parlay (BetOnline is one)]
KC/Min Under 8.5 [1.85] [3%]
Clev/Atl Over 7 [2.00] [3%]
Phi/Metz Over 7.5 [1.85] [3%]
Mia/Was over 8 [1.85] [3%]Comment -
Leans:
Pitt & Over 7 parlay: Yes Locke hasn't been the great however Pitt @ home and Brewer on the road, do the maths, add BP edge for Pitt.
SF/Col Under: All the the hallmarks of OD not having caught up to total current information on both sides. Line is too high.
NyyTor Over 9
Was & Over parlay.Comment -
Locked and loaded. One line movement: Mia/Was over 8 is now 8.5. I played it at 8.5
I feel better on this one as its moving against us. Usually a better sign then last time. All other lines are still the same as of 4:37 pm EDT. Thanks for the picks, good luck everyone.Comment -
Recap 27/8/13
Clev/Atl : on second thinking this was a mistake on part (metric was pointing to both SP being ready for smack). Atl and Clev are high strike out teams and both were facing strikeout pitchers with extreme heat balls. Certainly on the lookout to play against both SP if they don't improve.
Mia/Was: Nothing has changed, both SP still pitching above career metric, look for better opportunity to fade them.
Phi/Nym: BP was nopt brought intop play here because both line-up made both SP look better than they are picthing instead of running up their pitch count.
Cin/Stl: Well Stl did their bit Cincy not so much, call me crazy but i have a small lean to Cincy today but i can't play it unless Stl start resting players looking ahead to next series.
KC/Min: Pretty much play out the way i thought it would, hit Correia less than normal.
Plan for today, i will try get the best play on the board rather than give my whole card until this indifferent period turns for the better. LatersComment -
Thanks. Will look forward to it.
What is funny about yesterday, is if we went under on all picks, we would have had a perfect night including the correlated parlay (which 5 dimes did allow). But that's what unit betting is all about, to survive a bad storm and keep coming back for more.
Hang in there, got to turn back around sooner or later.Comment -
149-128 [+112.04 units]
Cinn ML 2.35 [3%]: I personally believe top teams resting key players makes their teammates play sloppy ball. [Molina [rest] has one of the highest wins above replacement in the league never-mind mentally how his teammates miss his presence, Kozma also rested]
Clev ML 1.95 [3%]: Clev very good very LHP that likes to pitch to contact ala Maholm rather than LHP that generates strikeouts, also ATL was very lucky last night scoring 2 runs from 3 hits. I tab SP edge to Clev here and slight edge in BP to them as well.
Leans: KC/Minn OverComment -
Thanks BG for the kind word, should be a good night.Comment -
150-129 [+113.09 units]Comment -
Question:
On the CLE game, we just tied it up and i was celebrating. We had a guy on 3rd in scoring position, 2 outs, and one guy on first. WHY did that dude on first run and get the last out?
All he had to do was stay at first and spit and scratch himself. And take off if the ball is hit.
Very well could have cost us the game.Comment -
In Play Wager Parlay
TB game over 8.5 or less
Det game under 8 or higher
Min game under 8 or higher
1% playComment -
Mil/Pitt under 7.5 [1.90] [3x]
Sea/Hou Over 9 [2.05] [3x]Comment -
Sea/Hou Over 9 [2.05] [3x]
exact same for me. consider hou rrl as well +200.Comment -
on the MIL/PIT under pretty large (for me). already 1-0. Of course. we are toastComment -
151-131 [+112.79 units]
Phil/Cubs over 9 [1.91] [3%]
LAA/MIL Over 8 [3% play] [Peralta has lost the strike zone and can't miss bats (horrible combo), i believe Angels' line-up should get to him and Brewers' BP is 25th for a week's work.]
LAA ML Parlayed to over 8 [1%] [3.43] [LAA holds the cards here]
SF/Ari under 8.5 [3%] [2.05]:
Min/Tex under 8.5 [2.00] [3%]
Mia/Atl Over 6.5 [2.00] [3%]
I can feel it turning, lets smack the books today [There will be high number of plays today]Comment
