on3's MLB 2013 Opening Day System Thread

**on3** · 06-01-13, 02:36 PM

(B) LAA -240/-120 to win 36 -- play RL

**analyzer** · 06-02-13, 12:37 PM

The Angels to pick one up today!

**on3** · 06-02-13, 02:08 PM

late post...late night last night

(C) LAA -240/-125 to win 56 -- play RL

**on3** · 06-03-13, 12:54 PM

UPDATED for 6/2/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 59-4-0; Profit: +48.5 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units)
Filtered System: 7-0-0; Profit: +7 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 44-19; 7-0
Game 2 (B) win = 12-7; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 3-4; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 6/2/2013
x-12-21-35
x-18-26-x
10-10-45-46

shuffle

x-34-34-x
x-32-32-x
20-20-25-26

Filtered
x-x-x-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 6/2/2013
(A) PHI -178 to win 34
(A) STL -148 to win 34

Filtered
none

5/2
none

**analyzer** · 06-03-13, 02:41 PM

Thanks on3!

**on3** · 06-03-13, 04:21 PM

added STL

**J.M. Disciple** · 06-04-13, 10:39 AM

Based on the back test, after all star break or late in the season is there still a decent profit to be made? Most seasons were around 50+ units right? I know most years went profitable, just dont want it to be a downfall like last season around this point.

**on3** · 06-04-13, 11:46 AM

UPDATED for 6/3/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 61-4-0; Profit: +52 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units)
Filtered System: 7-0-0; Profit: +7 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 46-19; 7-0
Game 2 (B) win = 12-7; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 3-4; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 6/3/2013
15-15-15-15
x-22-22-x
20-20-25-26

Filtered
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 6/3/2013
(A) WAS -172 to win 30
NYY, DET, BOS on the fringe
LAA is only a 2 game series

Filtered
none

5/2
none

**on3** · 06-04-13, 11:48 AM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Based on the back test, after all star break or late in the season is there still a decent profit to be made? Most seasons were around 50+ units right? I know most years went profitable, just dont want it to be a downfall like last season around this point.

my goal for the year was +50 units. we've reached that and it is not even half way through the season. last year was an outlier, and 2nd half was horrible. i feel that with the .500 and o/u filter, we can still be successful.

**on3** · 06-04-13, 06:11 PM

NYY, DET, BOS all no plays

**on3** · 06-05-13, 05:33 PM

no plays today, back at it tomorrow

**on3** · 06-06-13, 11:38 AM

no plays so far, will be back in 4-5 hours to see if lines moved.

**on3** · 06-06-13, 05:07 PM

UPDATED for 6/6/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 62-4-0; Profit: +53.5 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units)
Filtered System: 7-0-0; Profit: +7 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 47-19; 7-0
Game 2 (B) win = 12-7; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 3-4; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 6/6/2013
x-15-15-x
x-22-22-x
20-20-25-26

Filtered
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 6/6/2013
(A) MIL -150 to win 30

Filtered
(A) MIL -150 to win 20

5/2
none

**J.M. Disciple** · 06-06-13, 07:05 PM

How many losses on average perseason on3?With last year being an exception I understand...

EDIT.. .i should of applied .500 filter early starting with this series. Hopefully its like last series where they win next game.

**on3** · 06-07-13, 10:35 AM

Big day today, our first 5/2 bet and 5 new series. For MIL, they are +135/-120 so play the RL.

UPDATED for 6/7/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 62-4-0; Profit: +53.5 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units)
Filtered System: 7-0-0; Profit: +7 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 47-20; 7-1
Game 2 (B) win = 12-7; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 3-4; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 6/6/2013
24-25-25-26-25
x-33-x-13
20-20-x-x

Filtered
10-10-10-20
10-10-15-25
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 6/6/2013
(B) MIL +135/-120 to win 46
(A) NYM -215/+115 bet 24 -- play RL
(A) DET -209/+105 bet 25 -- play RL
(A) BOS -148 to win 25
(A) KC -230/-105 to win 26 -- play RL
(A) WAS -158 to win 25

Filtered
(B) MIL +135/-120 to win 35
(A) BOS -148 to win 30

5/2
(A) MIL +135/-120 to win 100

**analyzer** · 06-07-13, 10:43 AM

Sorry I'm brain dead today. On the Brewers for instance do we play the +1.5 line or the +ML? Sorry for the dumb question but it's like my mind went totally blank.

**Mrscofield25** · 06-07-13, 01:04 PM

Originally posted by analyzer

Sorry I'm brain dead today. On the Brewers for instance do we play the +1.5 line or the +ML? Sorry for the dumb question but it's like my mind went totally blank.

I think it's up to you how you play it. But the +1,5 line would be smart if they lose by 1 run.

**on3** · 06-07-13, 01:05 PM

I recommend the +1.5 run line.

**analyzer** · 06-07-13, 01:37 PM

Thanks guys! Good luck!

**J.M. Disciple** · 06-07-13, 02:35 PM

+1.5 rule of the system; i don't ever remember it being a rule. I have open mind to be very wrong on this....

**J.M. Disciple** · 06-07-13, 02:46 PM

3 games ppd :-(

**on3** · 06-07-13, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

+1.5 rule of the system; i don't ever remember it being a rule. I have open mind to be very wrong on this....

not a rule, but with the small juice its not too much of a stretch. i will probably split my bet 50% ML and 50% RL.

**ken23lau** · 06-07-13, 04:08 PM

Sorry I forgot what the 5/2 was. 5 units B bet, 2 units C Bet?

**J.M. Disciple** · 06-07-13, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by ken23lau

Sorry I forgot what the 5/2 was. 5 units B bet, 2 units C Bet?

i think its 5u B and than 5u + 2u profit C. Gotta recover your 5u loss on B.

**J.M. Disciple** · 06-07-13, 11:01 PM

penetrating

SUPER NICE!!!

**Bostongambler** · 06-08-13, 11:29 AM

Good job

**on3** · 06-08-13, 11:58 AM

Quick post, BOS g1 -160 to win 25 and filtered to win 30

**J.M. Disciple** · 06-08-13, 12:40 PM

The three games PPD yesterday all still look like plays today, but I think only one available now cause early starts is Was. (WAS, BOS, & NYM).

Correct? Don't see any other qualifying.

**on3** · 06-08-13, 03:20 PM

I dropped the ball on Washington today, didn't realize there was a double header tomorrow. Boston game 2 today will be a B bet for regular and filtered as well as a 5/2 bet.

Boston game 2 will be to win about 52 regular, 38 filtered and 100 on 5/2.

**J.M. Disciple** · 06-08-13, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by on3

I dropped the ball on Washington today, didn't realize there was a double header tomorrow. Boston game 2 today will be a B bet for regular and filtered as well as a 5/2 bet.

Boston game 2 will be to win about 52 regular, 38 filtered and 100 on 5/2.

What about the Mets? They were play today as well right? Also WAS closed at -190 so -1.5 officially or still playing ML?

**on3** · 06-09-13, 02:10 AM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

What about the Mets? They were play today as well right? Also WAS closed at -190 so -1.5 officially or still playing ML?

I don't think the Mets have a 2x header scheduled, so a game 1 rain out made that series a no play

**J.M. Disciple** · 06-09-13, 02:48 AM

Originally posted by on3

I don't think the Mets have a 2x header scheduled, so a game 1 rain out made that series a no play

ic ic ok thx. I missed it anyways so thats good.

**on3** · 06-09-13, 10:38 AM

UPDATED for 6/9/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 66-4-0; Profit: +61 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units)
Filtered System: 9-0-0; Profit: +9 units
5/2 chase: 2-0-0; profit: +10 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 49-22; 7-2
Game 2 (B) win = 14-7; 2-0; 2-0
Game 3 (C) win = 3-4; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 6/9/2013
x-25-x-x
24-x-x-13
20-20-x-x

Filtered
10-10-30-20
x-x-15-x
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 6/9/2013
(B) WAS -181 to win 37
*if (B) bet loses, the (C) bet is on the same day due to the double header

Filtered
none

5/2
none

**J.M. Disciple** · 06-09-13, 11:48 AM

sorry, same question as other day cause my book has WAS at -193 right now. Am I suppose to take RL or base it on Covers closing lines?

**Mrscofield25** · 06-10-13, 02:20 AM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

sorry, same question as other day cause my book has WAS at -193 right now. Am I suppose to take RL or base it on Covers closing lines?

I think it's up to each individual whether to take the RL or ML. I mean On3 have stated that the C bet have been succesfully on the RL, if the team you're betting on is a -190 or higher, favorite. He uses 5Dimes closing lines for this system. But don't take my word on it, it's just what I mean have been said in the past.