mlb chase 2013

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  • Stifler
    SBR MVP
    • 11-11-09
    • 3511

    #281
    Originally posted by Scooby525
    Sorry guys don't know if you guys see my post but just wondering why did we fade Pittsburgh and go with Arizona
    its S2

    they had a 3 game losing streak on the road, the streak was broken and we contunie playing the streak. Means we play Pittsburgh to lose on the road. So play is/was on Arizona.

    On a sidenote Pittsburgh losing streaks are also S1 plays, we do skip 2 plays after the streak was broken and play to fade them right after those 2 games. So we will also have a S1 Pit fade starting on 22.04.2013, when they are going to play their next game on the road.
    Comment
    • 2178ice
      SBR High Roller
      • 03-12-13
      • 138

      #282
      So are the angels the start to a new chase???? I am trying to tail your picks Stifler, still A little confused! Thanks man
      Comment
      • Grinder12000
        SBR MVP
        • 04-21-11
        • 1809

        #283
        Hey stiffler. Was there any logic behind the skipping 2 games on S1s? Not doubting just curious what was going through your mind.
        Comment
        • zonedog
          SBR Rookie
          • 10-08-10
          • 28

          #284
          Originally posted by Stifler
          its S2
          On a sidenote Pittsburgh losing streaks are also S1 plays, we do skip 2 plays after the streak was broken and play to fade them right after those 2 games. So we will also have a S1 Pit fade starting on 22.04.2013, when they are going to play their next game on the road.
          Stifler,

          I am confused. Why wasn't today's Pit's game ALSO an S1 Pit's fade. They lost 3 games in a row and then won two after that and then today they had another game. All were on the road. Will appreciate your explanation.
          Comment
          • Ceebizcut
            SBR Rookie
            • 02-07-13
            • 17

            #285
            Hey Stifler
            Just wanted to say thanks
            The systems really appreciated
            Ill be tailing you all year
            Tailed you a bit in the NBA too
            Comment
            • samrock67
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 05-05-12
              • 647

              #286
              Originally posted by Ceebizcut
              Hey Stifler
              Just wanted to say thanks
              The systems really appreciated
              Ill be tailing you all year
              Tailed you a bit in the NBA too
              This

              +1
              Comment
              • Lakey
                SBR Sharp
                • 05-06-12
                • 430

                #287
                Originally posted by zonedog
                Stifler,

                I am confused. Why wasn't today's Pit's game ALSO an S1 Pit's fade. They lost 3 games in a row and then won two after that and then today they had another game. All were on the road. Will appreciate your explanation.
                The first win broke the streak. You then skip 2 more games before starting the chase.
                Comment
                • abzflabz
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 12-04-12
                  • 195

                  #288
                  Im skipping the angels hate this shit team
                  Comment
                  • ExodusNZ
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 09-02-11
                    • 605

                    #289
                    Hi

                    Just so I have this correct for tomorrow.

                    Game 3 - Risking roughly 8 to 9 units? (which is 5 to 6 units for game 1 and 2 + 8 to 9 units) ?

                    COME ON LAA!
                    Comment
                    • Grinder12000
                      SBR MVP
                      • 04-21-11
                      • 1809

                      #290
                      Im skipping the angels hate this shit team
                      At least you are not letting your emotions get in the way. That is always the downfall to most sports wagerers.

                      Actually more like a risk of 7.8 units for game 3 - not even a lot considering what is going on in the NHL chase LOL
                      Last edited by Grinder12000; 04-11-13, 08:12 AM.
                      Comment
                      • abzflabz
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 12-04-12
                        • 195

                        #291
                        Is it just the angels game today? Might play them i need action
                        Comment
                        • w@lt
                          SBR MVP
                          • 10-08-10
                          • 2594

                          #292
                          Originally posted by abzflabz
                          Im skipping the angels hate this shit team
                          Good luck with a chase system if you can't even handle 2 loses by a team.
                          Comment
                          • Stifler
                            SBR MVP
                            • 11-11-09
                            • 3511

                            #293
                            Originally posted by Grinder12000
                            Hey stiffler. Was there any logic behind the skipping 2 games on S1s? Not doubting just curious what was going through your mind.
                            actually this idea came from someone called cisco...(dunno exactly). He had a spreadsheet with all of his plays here on sbr a few years ago. He pretty much said some wise words i kept in mind: When it comes to mlb betting, stop thinking logical. He posted the system with 2 games skipping, but he played alot more teams (or all teams, dunno anymore). I just went through the backtest of all teams and filtered out the best looking teams.
                            Comment
                            • Stifler
                              SBR MVP
                              • 11-11-09
                              • 3511

                              #294
                              Originally posted by Stifler

                              10.04.2013

                              S2

                              (B Bet) Pit fade: Arizona 1,719 1,39u | Arizona 1,602 3,97u

                              S3

                              (B Bet) LAA: LA Angels 1,654 1,53u | LA Angels 1,80 3,163u
                              records:
                              S1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
                              S2: W 1 | L 0 (+ 1,00 units)
                              S3: W 22 | L 0 (+22,00 units)
                              P1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
                              P2: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
                              P3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)


                              pending:
                              - S3 LAA, C Bet on 11.04.2013



                              ________________________________________ _____________________________________

                              all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
                              Comment
                              • zonedog
                                SBR Rookie
                                • 10-08-10
                                • 28

                                #295
                                Originally posted by Lakey
                                The first win broke the streak. You then skip 2 more games before starting the chase.

                                Got it. Thanks!
                                Comment
                                • cards2013
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 01-15-13
                                  • 147

                                  #296
                                  Originally posted by Stifler
                                  records:
                                  S1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
                                  S2: W 1 | L 0 (+ 1,00 units)
                                  S3: W 22 | L 0 (+22,00 units)
                                  P1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
                                  P2: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
                                  P3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)


                                  pending:
                                  - S3 LAA, C Bet on 11.04.2013



                                  ________________________________________ _____________________________________

                                  all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
                                  dont forget the tx FADE today with SEA

                                  GL
                                  Comment
                                  • Stifler
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 11-11-09
                                    • 3511

                                    #297
                                    11.04.2013

                                    S3

                                    (C Bet) LAA: LA Angels 1,654 1,53u | LA Angels 1,80 3,163u | LA Angels 1,787 7,234u
                                    (A Bet) Tex fade: Seattle 1,649 1,54u


                                    ________________________________________ _____________________________________

                                    all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
                                    Comment
                                    • Huego
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 01-23-11
                                      • 265

                                      #298
                                      gl tonight man, lets go angels!
                                      Comment
                                      • sportscreep1
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 03-02-10
                                        • 292

                                        #299
                                        Really need the Angels tonight! Come on, put that $125 million payroll to use, 2 wins? Really? Have Angels in On3's system as well for a (c) bet....
                                        Comment
                                        • eroger92
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 01-19-11
                                          • 109

                                          #300
                                          Angels looking real shitty so far. I'm from So Cal. Their pitching sucks, they are hitting .100 something with RISP. They are not fundamentally sound. Their bullpen sucks. Mike Scioscia needs to go. Not sure if I am going to play this C bet.
                                          Comment
                                          • abzflabz
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 12-04-12
                                            • 195

                                            #301
                                            Originally posted by w@lt
                                            Good luck with a chase system if you can't even handle 2 loses by a team.
                                            Its not the loses im worried about, its backing the angels to win that worries me. They remind me of the current lakers
                                            Comment
                                            • Grinder12000
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 04-21-11
                                              • 1809

                                              #302
                                              I'm playing 3 chase systems at the moment in 3 sports so im pretty numb to these small wagers at the moment. I feel like a battle tested veteran with a few 30 unit wagers under my belt laughing at the rookies. :-)

                                              what we really need is for a win NEXT game.
                                              Comment
                                              • AceofSP2107
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 07-28-09
                                                • 717

                                                #303
                                                This is why it's also about money management , if you see Oak is on a streak stay away from the chase and wait to the next play , you can labby ,lower your wager to win a half unit . How ever it takes , if Angles win then so be it ,,. I respect stif for this system and all put into it
                                                Comment
                                                • J.M. Disciple
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 11-16-10
                                                  • 5154

                                                  #304
                                                  Comment
                                                  • knugen
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 12-09-09
                                                    • 2612

                                                    #305
                                                    Hmm angels not looking good
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Grinder12000
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 04-21-11
                                                      • 1809

                                                      #306
                                                      Well, I guess we don't get the good lines tonight :-)
                                                      Comment
                                                      • kosti
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 08-22-12
                                                        • 206

                                                        #307
                                                        I locked in to angels at -180 last night....moved to -195 now. No idea what else is a play
                                                        Comment
                                                        • HowardRoark
                                                          SBR Rookie
                                                          • 12-13-12
                                                          • 29

                                                          #308
                                                          Originally posted by kosti
                                                          I locked in to angels at -180 last night....moved to -195 now. No idea what else is a play
                                                          smart.
                                                          Seattle B bet is also a play tonight
                                                          Comment
                                                          • knugen
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 12-09-09
                                                            • 2612

                                                            #309
                                                            and hopefully some new series.. excited to see wgat stiffmeister comes up with
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Stifler
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 11-11-09
                                                              • 3511

                                                              #310
                                                              Originally posted by Stifler
                                                              11.04.2013

                                                              S3

                                                              (C Bet) LAA: LA Angels 1,654 1,53u | LA Angels 1,80 3,163u | LA Angels 1,787 7,234u
                                                              (A Bet) Tex fade: Seattle 1,649 1,54u
                                                              records:
                                                              S1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
                                                              S2: W 1 | L 0 (+ 1,00 units)
                                                              S3: W 22 | L 0 (+22,00 units)
                                                              P1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
                                                              P2: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
                                                              P3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)


                                                              pending:
                                                              - S3 LAA, D Bet on 12.04.2013
                                                              - S3 Tex fade, B Bet on 12.04.2013


                                                              ________________________________________ _____________________________________

                                                              all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
                                                              Comment
                                                              • DocZ
                                                                SBR Hustler
                                                                • 03-05-13
                                                                • 58

                                                                #311
                                                                Is Seattle a bet even if they are not favored?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • CheeseHead
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 12-03-10
                                                                  • 439

                                                                  #312
                                                                  Originally posted by DocZ
                                                                  Is Seattle a bet even if they are not favored?
                                                                  Yes I'm pretty sure, but do we risk the amount we lost on the A bet plus 1 unit again or now just the A bet amount lost plus the amount it would take to be ahead 1 unit since we are getting plus odds?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • DocZ
                                                                    SBR Hustler
                                                                    • 03-05-13
                                                                    • 58

                                                                    #313
                                                                    Originally posted by CheeseHead
                                                                    Yes I'm pretty sure, but do we risk the amount we lost on the A bet plus 1 unit again or now just the A bet amount lost plus the amount it would take to be ahead 1 unit since we are getting plus odds?
                                                                    I would guess, if we are playing with plus odds, we would bet the amount that gets us to "+1" units total for the lost A bet and the new B bet.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Grinder12000
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 04-21-11
                                                                      • 1809

                                                                      #314
                                                                      Yes - just takes a little bit more math - bet what will get on one unit in the end!

                                                                      LAA - 65.5% chance of winning GULP!!

                                                                      Look at it this way Using -150, -134, -142, -190 as lines (sorry Europeans) - If LAA losses tonight it will be a 1 out of 47.6 chance in a four game chase. SO - there is a 2.4% chance of LAA losing tonight :-) Confidence is high (along with my balls)
                                                                      Last edited by Grinder12000; 04-12-13, 12:11 PM.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Stifler
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 11-11-09
                                                                        • 3511

                                                                        #315
                                                                        12.04.2013

                                                                        S3

                                                                        (D Bet) LAA: LAA 1,654 1,53u | LAA 1,80 3,163u | LAA 1,787 7,234u | LAA 1,526 24,576u
                                                                        (B Bet) Tex fade: Seattle 1,649 1,54u | Seattle 2,28 1,984u
                                                                        (A Bet) NYY: NY Yankees 1,649 1,54u


                                                                        potential plays:
                                                                        - S3 Pit, if line <+100
                                                                        - S3 Det if line +100 or more
                                                                        - S3 Oak, if line <+100


                                                                        ________________________________________ _____________________________________

                                                                        all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3
                                                                        Comment
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