mlb chase 2013

**Stifler** · 04-10-13, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by Scooby525

Sorry guys don't know if you guys see my post but just wondering why did we fade Pittsburgh and go with Arizona

its S2

they had a 3 game losing streak on the road, the streak was broken and we contunie playing the streak. Means we play Pittsburgh to lose on the road. So play is/was on Arizona.

On a sidenote Pittsburgh losing streaks are also S1 plays, we do skip 2 plays after the streak was broken and play to fade them right after those 2 games. So we will also have a S1 Pit fade starting on 22.04.2013, when they are going to play their next game on the road.

**2178ice** · 04-10-13, 06:34 PM

So are the angels the start to a new chase???? I am trying to tail your picks Stifler, still A little confused! Thanks man

**Grinder12000** · 04-10-13, 07:18 PM

Hey stiffler. Was there any logic behind the skipping 2 games on S1s? Not doubting just curious what was going through your mind.

**zonedog** · 04-10-13, 09:07 PM

Originally posted by Stifler

its S2
On a sidenote Pittsburgh losing streaks are also S1 plays, we do skip 2 plays after the streak was broken and play to fade them right after those 2 games. So we will also have a S1 Pit fade starting on 22.04.2013, when they are going to play their next game on the road.

Stifler,

I am confused. Why wasn't today's Pit's game ALSO an S1 Pit's fade. They lost 3 games in a row and then won two after that and then today they had another game. All were on the road. Will appreciate your explanation.

**Ceebizcut** · 04-10-13, 09:41 PM

Hey Stifler
Just wanted to say thanks
The systems really appreciated
Ill be tailing you all year
Tailed you a bit in the NBA too

**samrock67** · 04-10-13, 10:13 PM

Originally posted by Ceebizcut

Hey Stifler
Just wanted to say thanks
The systems really appreciated
Ill be tailing you all year
Tailed you a bit in the NBA too

This

+1

**Lakey** · 04-11-13, 01:39 AM

Originally posted by zonedog

Stifler,

I am confused. Why wasn't today's Pit's game ALSO an S1 Pit's fade. They lost 3 games in a row and then won two after that and then today they had another game. All were on the road. Will appreciate your explanation.

The first win broke the streak. You then skip 2 more games before starting the chase.

**abzflabz** · 04-11-13, 03:16 AM

Im skipping the angels hate this shit team

**ExodusNZ** · 04-11-13, 07:29 AM

Hi

Just so I have this correct for tomorrow.

Game 3 - Risking roughly 8 to 9 units? (which is 5 to 6 units for game 1 and 2 + 8 to 9 units) ?

COME ON LAA!

**Grinder12000** · 04-11-13, 07:56 AM

Im skipping the angels hate this shit team

At least you are not letting your emotions get in the way. That is always the downfall to most sports wagerers.

Actually more like a risk of 7.8 units for game 3 - not even a lot considering what is going on in the NHL chase LOL

**abzflabz** · 04-11-13, 08:10 AM

Is it just the angels game today? Might play them i need action

**w@lt** · 04-11-13, 08:24 AM

Originally posted by abzflabz

Im skipping the angels hate this shit team

Good luck with a chase system if you can't even handle 2 loses by a team.

**Stifler** · 04-11-13, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

Hey stiffler. Was there any logic behind the skipping 2 games on S1s? Not doubting just curious what was going through your mind.

actually this idea came from someone called cisco...(dunno exactly). He had a spreadsheet with all of his plays here on sbr a few years ago. He pretty much said some wise words i kept in mind: When it comes to mlb betting, stop thinking logical. He posted the system with 2 games skipping, but he played alot more teams (or all teams, dunno anymore). I just went through the backtest of all teams and filtered out the best looking teams.

**Stifler** · 04-11-13, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

10.04.2013

S2

(B Bet) Pit fade: Arizona 1,719 1,39u | Arizona 1,602 3,97u

S3

(B Bet) LAA: LA Angels 1,654 1,53u | LA Angels 1,80 3,163u

records:
S1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
S2: W 1 | L 0 (+ 1,00 units)
S3: W 22 | L 0 (+22,00 units)
P1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
P2: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
P3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)

pending:
- S3 LAA, C Bet on 11.04.2013

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**zonedog** · 04-11-13, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by Lakey

The first win broke the streak. You then skip 2 more games before starting the chase.

Got it. Thanks!

**cards2013** · 04-11-13, 10:49 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

records:
S1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
S2: W 1 | L 0 (+ 1,00 units)
S3: W 22 | L 0 (+22,00 units)
P1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
P2: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
P3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)

pending:
- S3 LAA, C Bet on 11.04.2013

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

dont forget the tx FADE today with SEA

GL

**Stifler** · 04-11-13, 11:26 AM

11.04.2013

S3

(C Bet) LAA: LA Angels 1,654 1,53u | LA Angels 1,80 3,163u | LA Angels 1,787 7,234u
(A Bet) Tex fade: Seattle 1,649 1,54u

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Huego** · 04-11-13, 12:00 PM

gl tonight man, lets go angels!

**sportscreep1** · 04-11-13, 02:00 PM

Really need the Angels tonight! Come on, put that $125 million payroll to use, 2 wins? Really? Have Angels in On3's system as well for a (c) bet....

**eroger92** · 04-11-13, 02:44 PM

Angels looking real shitty so far. I'm from So Cal. Their pitching sucks, they are hitting .100 something with RISP. They are not fundamentally sound. Their bullpen sucks. Mike Scioscia needs to go. Not sure if I am going to play this C bet.

**abzflabz** · 04-11-13, 04:23 PM

Originally posted by w@lt

Good luck with a chase system if you can't even handle 2 loses by a team.

Its not the loses im worried about, its backing the angels to win that worries me. They remind me of the current lakers

**Grinder12000** · 04-11-13, 04:42 PM

I'm playing 3 chase systems at the moment in 3 sports so im pretty numb to these small wagers at the moment. I feel like a battle tested veteran with a few 30 unit wagers under my belt laughing at the rookies. :-)

what we really need is for a win NEXT game.

**AceofSP2107** · 04-11-13, 05:00 PM

This is why it's also about money management , if you see Oak is on a streak stay away from the chase and wait to the next play , you can labby ,lower your wager to win a half unit . How ever it takes , if Angles win then so be it ,,. I respect stif for this system and all put into it

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-11-13, 10:45 PM

**knugen** · 04-11-13, 11:21 PM

Hmm angels not looking good

**Grinder12000** · 04-12-13, 10:11 AM

Well, I guess we don't get the good lines tonight :-)

**kosti** · 04-12-13, 10:27 AM

I locked in to angels at -180 last night....moved to -195 now. No idea what else is a play

**HowardRoark** · 04-12-13, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by kosti

I locked in to angels at -180 last night....moved to -195 now. No idea what else is a play

smart.
Seattle B bet is also a play tonight

**knugen** · 04-12-13, 10:31 AM

and hopefully some new series.. excited to see wgat stiffmeister comes up with

**Stifler** · 04-12-13, 11:11 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

11.04.2013

S3

(C Bet) LAA: LA Angels 1,654 1,53u | LA Angels 1,80 3,163u | LA Angels 1,787 7,234u
(A Bet) Tex fade: Seattle 1,649 1,54u

records:
S1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
S2: W 1 | L 0 (+ 1,00 units)
S3: W 22 | L 0 (+22,00 units)
P1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
P2: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
P3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)

pending:
- S3 LAA, D Bet on 12.04.2013
- S3 Tex fade, B Bet on 12.04.2013

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**DocZ** · 04-12-13, 11:13 AM

Is Seattle a bet even if they are not favored?

**CheeseHead** · 04-12-13, 11:24 AM

Originally posted by DocZ

Is Seattle a bet even if they are not favored?

Yes I'm pretty sure, but do we risk the amount we lost on the A bet plus 1 unit again or now just the A bet amount lost plus the amount it would take to be ahead 1 unit since we are getting plus odds?

**DocZ** · 04-12-13, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by CheeseHead

Yes I'm pretty sure, but do we risk the amount we lost on the A bet plus 1 unit again or now just the A bet amount lost plus the amount it would take to be ahead 1 unit since we are getting plus odds?

I would guess, if we are playing with plus odds, we would bet the amount that gets us to "+1" units total for the lost A bet and the new B bet.

**Grinder12000** · 04-12-13, 11:56 AM

Yes - just takes a little bit more math - bet what will get on one unit in the end!

LAA - 65.5% chance of winning GULP!!

Look at it this way Using -150, -134, -142, -190 as lines (sorry Europeans) - If LAA losses tonight it will be a 1 out of 47.6 chance in a four game chase. SO - there is a 2.4% chance of LAA losing tonight :-) Confidence is high (along with my balls)

**Stifler** · 04-12-13, 11:57 AM

12.04.2013

S3

(D Bet) LAA: LAA 1,654 1,53u | LAA 1,80 3,163u | LAA 1,787 7,234u | LAA 1,526 24,576u
(B Bet) Tex fade: Seattle 1,649 1,54u | Seattle 2,28 1,984u
(A Bet) NYY: NY Yankees 1,649 1,54u

potential plays:
- S3 Pit, if line <+100
- S3 Det if line +100 or more
- S3 Oak, if line <+100

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3