mlb chase 2013

**Ji-a** · 04-04-13, 09:16 AM

Originally posted by kosti

Has anyone done the actual math to determine this?

I haven't, but it should be pretty clear. Decrease your unit size rather than skip A bets.

**kosti** · 04-04-13, 09:41 AM

Samrock and Ji-a....thanks for the input. Decreasing the unit size was my original thought but wondered if profit would be greater if unit size stayed same and entered the series on the 2nd game (greater profit with higher unit, less loss due to only 3 game chase).

**Grinder12000** · 04-04-13, 10:09 AM

The problem with skipping the "A" games is that you lose 1541 wins or 1,541units and that is not made up anywhere.

Skipping the "A" games is a common and wrong solution in a chase. Chases are VERY high risk, high reward. many many small wins with a few HUGE losses. (Check out what we have going in the NHL today if you want your balls in your throat - this Toronto game is child's play).

**kosti** · 04-04-13, 12:01 PM

Sent PM to avoid cluttering this thread. THanks for the help guys

**cooler54** · 04-04-13, 12:43 PM

personally i use the b c and d games of stiflers mlb chase for a chunk of my regular flat picks...and if i feel really good about one of the series i will chase the b c and d games if i like the pitching matchups...worked really well last year and so far this this year...just my experiance with it so far...great work stifer either way!!

**Grinder12000** · 04-04-13, 01:24 PM

I think people looking to make a Chase more palatable by skipping games are not understanding the philosophy of a chase.

What they are missing is that in a chase you are going for quantity - not quality. Like I told kosti - we are machine gunners and not snipers. By skipping the "A" game you will lose less but also win less because you won't have all of those "A" game wins.

Skipping the "A" games you will have a higher winning percentage but win less money.

**cooler54** · 04-04-13, 02:24 PM

Oh i totally agree with u grinder...im just talking about scouting out and picking certain games involved in successful chase systems such as this one can be very beneficial to flat betting. Its all personal preference. Id rather be flat betting 100 dollars a game then risking over 1000 at times just to win 50 dollars. You can talk about having/not having balls, machine gunners, and snipers all day long, but at the end of the day, profit is profit

**Grinder12000** · 04-04-13, 02:48 PM

Totally agree cooler54 - I was not actually answering YOU. Everybody needs to find a comfort zone. Personally today I'm NOT in my comfort zone with 3 sports and too many critical games on my card. one a night is fine but having 3 or 4 is not my cup of tea.

**samrock67** · 04-04-13, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

Totally agree cooler54 - I was not actually answering YOU. Everybody needs to find a comfort zone. Personally today I'm NOT in my comfort zone with 3 sports and too many critical games on my card. one a night is fine but having 3 or 4 is not my cup of tea.

Thankfully the NBA and NHL seasons are coming to a close...

Personally, I stopped with Stifler NBA and Wallco NHL about a week ago on a day when the board was clear of all open series(there may have been 1 or 2 that I just ate the A bet loss on) and I'm focusing everything on MLB right now.

**jakejd82** · 04-04-13, 04:29 PM

Just realized if tor and nyy both lose tonight then both d bets will be tor vs bos . Tor bet and Bos fade. I think it will be like 70 units on tor. Could be very interesting

**BRAVES1985** · 04-04-13, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by knugen

If any team suck, its toronto

its 2 games relax bud

**DocZ** · 04-04-13, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by jakejd82

Just realized if tor and nyy both lose tonight then both d bets will be tor vs bos . Tor bet and Bos fade. I think it will be like 70 units on tor. Could be very interesting

I come up with around 53 units, but holy balls!!

Line is out at around -167

or

your other choice, can forfeit around 19 units for the games up to this point.

Let's hope it does not come to that!

**samrock67** · 04-04-13, 06:32 PM

I'm curious if Grinder or anyone else(including Stifler) has a spreadsheet(or multiple spreadsheets) with a history of every series in the system(or at least of the series you have participated in).

The reason I ask is because I am interested in compiling data on how many series covered on the runline, whether it hit on the game the series was over or even later in the series. It is extensive work, I know, but I can't help but lick my chops at the thought of still being tremendously profitable playing the runline every series and saving all of that money on the juice.

For those wondering, so far this year:

- 4 out of 7 series have covered on the RL(1 on the A bet, 2 on the B bet, and 1 on the C bet) Note: series may have been won prior to the B or C bet, and if it did, I checked to see that had you kept betting, would they have covered the RL at some point.
- out of the 3 remaining series, 2 are "open series"- S3 Tor and S3 Bos fade; 1 is heading into a hypothetical D bet(S3 TB, which we won on the B bet but hasn't covered the RL in their first 3 games)

I plan to keep a running spreadsheet of every series we play and whether it covers on the RL or not. Hopefully this provides us with an idea as to what changes if you were to play the RL every series.

**DocZ** · 04-04-13, 08:22 PM

You guys think it's possible to forecast how "juicy" a series is going to be from the first game?

If you could forecast that you would have to lay greater than 25 units for worst case "D" bet game, personally, I would be happy playing that series for 1/2 units.

Or do you lose out on too many A/B games, at full unit, since the heavier favorites are "supposed" to win?

**w@lt** · 04-04-13, 08:37 PM

Originally posted by DocZ

You guys think it's possible to forecast how "juicy" a series is going to be from the first game?

If you could forecast that you would have to lay greater than 25 units for worst case "D" bet game, personally, I would be happy playing that series for 1/2 units.

Or do you lose out on too many A/B games, at full unit, since the heavier favorites are "supposed" to win?

I don't think the juice would be too hard to predict if you know who the starting pitchers are going to be through the series.

**w@lt** · 04-04-13, 08:47 PM

Whew, one C down... finally, Yanks.

**w@lt** · 04-04-13, 08:57 PM

And the other! Didn't doubt the system for a minute

**samrock67** · 04-04-13, 09:02 PM

**DocZ** · 04-04-13, 09:02 PM

Lol, yeah sure.

**Thadeus** · 04-04-13, 09:04 PM

**zonedog** · 04-04-13, 09:15 PM

**Grinder12000** · 04-04-13, 09:38 PM

You guys think it's possible to forecast how "juicy" a series is going to be from the first game?

I tried that in Wallcos NHL Chase but found little correlation. The problem was that you played a different team every night

W@lt had a good idea.

**Huego** · 04-04-13, 09:41 PM

nice...

**kmc28** · 04-04-13, 10:03 PM

I don't think im going to have the bankroll to be able to play this system, unfortunately. At least not the full system. I have a bankroll of 100u ($1000 @ $10 units), which I don't think I'm going to be comfortable with for this system. My current book won't allow me to play any smaller units unfortunately, so I have to look for other options. I'm not a high roller or anything like that haha. I'm trying to think of a way to continue playing the games but with a more conservative (and obviously less rewarding) approach. The only thing I can really think of is playing my same unit size but starting my chase from the B or C Bets (and playing it as my first game in the chase). I know I'd miss out on a bunch of units by not playing the A (or B maybe) games. Is there any other ideas that you guys might have?

**samrock67** · 04-04-13, 10:11 PM

Originally posted by kmc28

I don't think im going to have the bankroll to be able to play this system, unfortunately. At least not the full system. I have a bankroll of 100u ($1000 @ $10 units), which I don't think I'm going to be comfortable with for this system. My current book won't allow me to play any smaller units unfortunately, so I have to look for other options. I'm not a high roller or anything like that haha. I'm trying to think of a way to continue playing the games but with a more conservative (and obviously less rewarding) approach. The only thing I can really think of is playing my same unit size but starting my chase from the B or C Bets (and playing it as my first game in the chase, thus 1u). I know I'd miss out on a bunch of units by not playing the A (or B maybe) games. Is there any other ideas that you guys might have?

I'm in the same boat as you roll-wise. I don't know what book you use. I use 5dimes(highly recommend, btw). I am perfectly comfortable playing this system because I have undying faith in Stifler. For the beginning of the season I have lowered my unit size to $7.50 until I build up a bit. It's also worth considering changing your unit size mid-series to $5 should the series go to a C or D bet so that you end up risking less on the C and D bets.

**w@lt** · 04-04-13, 10:18 PM

Can anyone speak to increasing unit size once bankroll is up some? Is there a certain part of the season that has traditionally done poorly? The danger I see in increasing unit size is having the system performing worse after unit size increase, therefore taking bigger hits.

**Huego** · 04-04-13, 10:54 PM

Originally posted by kmc28

I don't think im going to have the bankroll to be able to play this system, unfortunately. At least not the full system. I have a bankroll of 100u ($1000 @ $10 units), which I don't think I'm going to be comfortable with for this system. My current book won't allow me to play any smaller units unfortunately, so I have to look for other options. I'm not a high roller or anything like that haha. I'm trying to think of a way to continue playing the games but with a more conservative (and obviously less rewarding) approach. The only thing I can really think of is playing my same unit size but starting my chase from the B or C Bets (and playing it as my first game in the chase). I know I'd miss out on a bunch of units by not playing the A (or B maybe) games. Is there any other ideas that you guys might have?

withdrawal your money and deposit with 5dimes. they even allow $1 bets. they are also the safest book for US players.

**Huego** · 04-04-13, 10:55 PM

Originally posted by w@lt

Can anyone speak to increasing unit size once bankroll is up some? Is there a certain part of the season that has traditionally done poorly? The danger I see in increasing unit size, then having the system performing worse after unit size increase, therefore taking bigger hits.

I wouldn't change unit size until the off season.

**Lakey** · 04-05-13, 12:16 AM

Originally posted by w@lt

Can anyone speak to increasing unit size once bankroll is up some? Is there a certain part of the season that has traditionally done poorly? The danger I see in increasing unit size is having the system performing worse after unit size increase, therefore taking bigger hits.

Last year it was over 50 series before a loss but this is going to be variable year to year. Increasing unit size during a season would be a dangerous move imo.

**808bases** · 04-05-13, 01:24 AM

Originally posted by Huego

withdrawal your money and deposit with 5dimes. they even allow $1 bets. they are also the safest book for US players.

5dimes is where I'm at also. I'm playing $5/unit just to get my feet wet

**Stifler** · 04-05-13, 03:05 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

03.04.2013

S3

(C Bet) Tor: Toronto 1,575 1,74u | Toronto 1,571 4,799u | Toronto 1,61 12,359u
(C Bet) Bos fade: NY Yankees 1,917 1,09u | NY Yankees 1,885 2,362u | NY Yankees 1,80 5,565u

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Greg242** · 04-05-13, 03:10 AM

Can you please go die fking idiot spammer

**Stifler** · 04-05-13, 03:23 AM

05.04.2013

S3

(A Bet) NYY fade: Detroit - waiting on line movement
(A Bet) Det: Detroit - waiting on line movement
(A Bet) Tex: Texas - waiting on line movement
(A Bet) SF: San Francisco 1,847 1,18u
(A Bet) Pit fade: LA Dodgers - waiting on line movement

________________________________________ ________________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**rustie** · 04-05-13, 06:21 AM

Originally posted by kmc28

I don't think im going to have the bankroll to be able to play this system, unfortunately. At least not the full system. I have a bankroll of 100u ($1000 @ $10 units), which I don't think I'm going to be comfortable with for this system. My current book won't allow me to play any smaller units unfortunately, so I have to look for other options. I'm not a high roller or anything like that haha. I'm trying to think of a way to continue playing the games but with a more conservative (and obviously less rewarding) approach. The only thing I can really think of is playing my same unit size but starting my chase from the B or C Bets (and playing it as my first game in the chase). I know I'd miss out on a bunch of units by not playing the A (or B maybe) games. Is there any other ideas that you guys might have?

Maybe you could consider playing less series, just pick certain series that you feel will have a better chance of succeding
so instead of playing the 5 series today perhaps just play 2 or 3 ,whatever your comfortable with ?

**Grinder12000** · 04-05-13, 06:28 AM

Can anyone speak to increasing unit size once bankroll is up some?

this being my 3rd Chase system and am used to the high variance (and actually HAVE a bankroll after last night's NHL Chases - WHEW LOL) I'm sort of doing that on this one. Sort of "kelly" betting but basically each NEW series I play 1% of my bank and then use THAT starting number for the entire chase. Basically I'm trying to REALLY get myself confused with multiple unit sizes all at once.

I feel that if this season goes like last year you are betting less and less of your bank as the Chase gets better and better. So why not try to increase your profits. And the reverse happens also. If the Chase goes south you are betting more and more of your bank in a losing effort.

This COULD be a losing strategy but . . . . . I feel it's an opportunity

rustie - 1000 @ $10 is not bad but if you are not comfortable then don't. Sports wagering is a marathon and the key is to keep you mind comfortable.

I would find a better online book (5dimes).