John Morrison 2013 MLB Thread

[allidoiswin89]

I'm almost finished with my over under system. Only 5 years of back test but great results

[hagball52]

I'm almost finished with my over under system. Only 5 years of back test but great results

Feel free to put it up in this thread. The JM system alone gets a little dry at times.

[stpirate]

Glad the system started off with a winning series.

[hagball52]

Glad the system started off with a winning series.

For anyone playing them run line. I've started off down 4 units but no worries I've got 2 solid plays coming up tomorrow on Houston and Miami

[hagball52]

Here's a quick update on the young season so far. I'll post this about every 2 weeks throughout the season. If you have any trouble understanding the information after the date, the U is for unofficial, there will be an O if it's official, the r/l is for how the series was won (will save me time going back and researching for my recap at the end of the year) and then any other information regarding the series. Back tomorrow with a full update and the next plays.

2013 JM MLB Upcoming Plays

04/12 SDG v COL win (C) 04/14 U r/l v2
04/15 MIA v WAS
04/15 HOU @ OAK
04/29 LAA @ OAK
04/29 WAS @ ATL
05/16 COL v SFO
05/31 CIN @ PIT
06/06 SDG @ COL
06/14 PIT v LAD
07/02 MIA @ ATL
07/04 MIN @ KAN
07/11 MIL @ ARI
09/20 CHC v ATL

[J.M. Disciple]

I was testing 3 overs / 3 unders chase. Once a team goes over 3 chase or once a team goes under 3 times chase. This year its 50-3 with one C bet pending. I tried to attach my spread sheet but keeps saying invalid file.

A) 27-29-1 2 PENDING
B) 16-11-1 2 PENDING
C) 7-3-1 1 PENDING

Overall record: 50-43

based on -110 odds.

A) 22-20
b) 46.20 to win 42
c) 97.02 to win 88.20

series loss ($165.22) based on $20 unit size.

Profit this season: $504.34.

The one difference in this chase is during the chase if your A bet wins, keep betting until the streak is broken. For example if we are betting on NYM. And it goes o,o,o... (chase begins), if next 3 go o, o, u, we win two A bets, lose A bet on 3rd game, than chase for two more games. Make sense? Allows for a lot more plays. If it goes o/o/u/u/u than we would have a C bet loss and do not start the next chase until the next streak happens. I did not count the games we bet as part of the steak. So on a C bet loss for the u u u, we are not betting their next 3 games unless it goes u u u again or o o o.

Let me know what you all think. Also if you are testing a system for the o/u please share so we are not separately testing the same systems.

I think people tested the o o o than follow chase system before but it failed based on the fact they would stop if the A bet won. By continuing the streak until it is broken allows for additional profit it appears. Also want to credit, i believe wilba, who I spoke with this about in the past where he would wait for a o/u to hit like 4-5 games than start following until it was broken. Basically just follow trends, but not chase.

[jmp]

I was testing 3 overs / 3 unders chase. Once a team goes over 3 chase or once a team goes under 3 times chase. This year its 50-3 with one C bet pending. I tried to attach my spread sheet but keeps saying invalid file.

A) 27-29-1 2 PENDING
B) 16-11-1 2 PENDING
C) 7-3-1 1 PENDING

Overall record: 50-43

based on -110 odds.

A) 22-20
b) 46.20 to win 42
c) 97.02 to win 88.20

series loss ($165.22) based on $20 unit size.

Profit this season: $504.34.

The one difference in this chase is during the chase if your A bet wins, keep betting until the streak is broken. For example if we are betting on NYM. And it goes o,o,o... (chase begins), if next 3 go o, o, u, we win two A bets, lose A bet on 3rd game, than chase for two more games. Make sense? Allows for a lot more plays. If it goes o/o/u/u/u than we would have a C bet loss and do not start the next chase until the next streak happens. I did not count the games we bet as part of the steak. So on a C bet loss for the u u u, we are not betting their next 3 games unless it goes u u u again or o o o.

Let me know what you all think. Also if you are testing a system for the o/u please share so we are not separately testing the same systems.

I think people tested the o o o than follow chase system before but it failed based on the fact they would stop if the A bet won. By continuing the streak until it is broken allows for additional profit it appears. Also want to credit, i believe wilba, who I spoke with this about in the past where he would wait for a o/u to hit like 4-5 games than start following until it was broken. Basically just follow trends, but not chase.

upload it to docs.google.com (you have to have a google account). Make sure you set the permission "those who have the url" and disable editing from other users.

[hagball52]

JM MLB System
2013 Official season series record 0-0 (V1)
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
V2 plays 0-0
V3 system 0-0
Unofficial series 1-0
(A) 0-1
(B) 0-1
(C) 1-0
(D) 0-0
V2 plays 1-0


*Unofficial*
04/14/2013 San Diego (.382) v Colorado (.466) +1.5 R/L (C) V2 WIN

Next Plays
*Unofficial*
04/15/2013 Miami (.459) v Washington (.524) +1.5 R/L (A) 3 gm. set
04/15/2013 Houston (.432) @ Oakland (.527) +1.5 R/L (A) 3 gm.set

Upcoming Plays
04/29/2013 LA Angels @ Oakland
04/29/2013 Washington @ Atlanta
05/16/2013 Colorado v San Francisco

Notes: We picked up 3 more plays from sweeps yesterday. Will list them below. There is one more possible sweep today (TAM/BOS). It was originally a 4 game set but the first game was postponed but the 3 remaining games should qualify it if it sweeps. I think that this is the most plays to ever start in the month of April since I've been doing JM MLB. Hopefully that's a good sign and we'll have a lot of plays this year.
04/29 WAS @ ATL
05/31 CIN @ PIT
06/06 SDG v COL

The rules for the JM MLB system can be found in post #25 and the filters in post #35. Any results and information regarding last season are in posts #26 and #27. GL All

[hagball52]

Here's JM's email:


James,

Good going on cashing in with the unofficial [C] bet yesterday!
It's a start of many more great things to come James!

Here are today's system bet(s):

Houston [A] bet
Miami [A] bet

Bet on the +1.5 run line.

Important: These are unofficial bets for tracking purposes.
These 2 betting series do not pass the RPI filter!

Good luck!
John Morrison, PhD

P.S. Check out my revolutionary new service, the "Sports Picks
Buffet" where I subscribe to over 500 world-famous sports
handicappers, reveal to you in my private members area ALL of their
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[Wallco99]

I was testing 3 overs / 3 unders chase. Once a team goes over 3 chase or once a team goes under 3 times chase. This year its 50-3 with one C bet pending. I tried to attach my spread sheet but keeps saying invalid file.

A) 27-29-1 2 PENDING
B) 16-11-1 2 PENDING
C) 7-3-1 1 PENDING

Overall record: 50-43

based on -110 odds.

A) 22-20
b) 46.20 to win 42
c) 97.02 to win 88.20

series loss ($165.22) based on $20 unit size.

Profit this season: $504.34.

The one difference in this chase is during the chase if your A bet wins, keep betting until the streak is broken. For example if we are betting on NYM. And it goes o,o,o... (chase begins), if next 3 go o, o, u, we win two A bets, lose A bet on 3rd game, than chase for two more games. Make sense? Allows for a lot more plays. If it goes o/o/u/u/u than we would have a C bet loss and do not start the next chase until the next streak happens. I did not count the games we bet as part of the steak. So on a C bet loss for the u u u, we are not betting their next 3 games unless it goes u u u again or o o o.

Let me know what you all think. Also if you are testing a system for the o/u please share so we are not separately testing the same systems.

I think people tested the o o o than follow chase system before but it failed based on the fact they would stop if the A bet won. By continuing the streak until it is broken allows for additional profit it appears. Also want to credit, i believe wilba, who I spoke with this about in the past where he would wait for a o/u to hit like 4-5 games than start following until it was broken. Basically just follow trends, but not chase.

I tried a backtest on that previously, results were pretty bad if I remember correctly.

[J.M. Disciple]

I tried a backtest on that previously, results were pretty bad if I remember correctly.

Thanks for the insight wallco; exactly why I wanted to post this up on here because I know some thing similar was floating around last season and figured someone might have already looked at it. Good thing I did not start betting it. I was very intrigued by this years profits, but i had a feeling too good to be true.

[Wallco99]

Thanks for the insight wallco; exactly why I wanted to post this up on here because I know some thing similar was floating around last season and figured someone might have already looked at it. Good thing I did not start betting it. I was very intrigued by this years profits, but i had a feeling too good to be true.

If I remember right, it seemed like it was a great chase, but the further back I went, the more it was losing. I called it quits. 6,7 and 8 game streaks for o/u is VERY common in MLB.

[J.M. Disciple]

If I remember right, it seemed like it was a great chase, but the further back I went, the more it was losing. I called it quits. 6,7 and 8 game streaks for o/u is VERY common in MLB.

Did you test streaks on W/L as well? I know several systems are based on this, but always stop when the first game is won. Curious about if you keep playing until streak is broken than stop. Kinda like your 1-7-5 idea where if A loses, but doesn't meat the filter you just stop. If we were chasing teams like ATL who won like 10 straight we would be printing some easy cash instead of waiting for 3 straight, than A bet wins, than wait for another 3 straight.

WWW, following, w w (2 a bets cashed),( u )take your loss and wait for the next streak on the first A bet. Not really sure if this is a system or just following win streaks and stopping when they are broken.

[J.M. Disciple]

Anyone follow or heard of this guy before? Seems like a hot thread that is hitting 70%, but a lot of higher juice plays, none the less its been profitable so far this season in any fashion you played it, whether it be ML, RL, or RRL. Guy seems to be crushing it with his software, but just came acrossed this right now. Wanted to share..

pS
I think his software is a fluke.. just my opinion.

[cape07]

I'm almost finished with my over under system. Only 5 years of back test but great results

I did some quick testing (nothing in-depth) for home teams on in-division series... Sadly I couldn't finish it on time but it looks like for every 3 or 4 straight games at home, at least 1 is over and at least 1 is under even with the worst team in the division

Nothing conclusive yet though..

[hagball52]

JM MLB System
2013 Official season series record 0-0 (V1)
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
V2 plays 0-0
V3 system 0-0
Unofficial series 1-0 (2 series pending)
(A) 0-3
(B) 0-1
(C) 1-0
(D) 0-0
V2 plays 1-0

*Unofficial*
04/15/2013 Miami (.459) v Washington (.524) +1.5 R/L (A) LOSS
04/15/2013 Houston (.432) @ Oakland (.527) +1.5 R/L (A) LOSS

Next Plays
04/16/2013 Miami (.443) v Washington (.523) +1.5 R/L (B) V2
04/16/2013 Houston (.426) @ Oakland (.529) +1.5 R/L (B)

Upcoming Plays
04/29/2013 LA Angels @ Oakland
04/29/2013 Washington @ Atlanta
05/14/2013 Tampa Bay v Boston
05/16/2013 Colorado v San Francisco

Notes: We picked up one more sweep yesterday (TAM). I added it to the list above. This year sure is taking a different route than last year. Last year we didn't see a (C) bet until June and now we could be looking at several. Hopefully some of the near upcoming plays will be official. Back tomorrow with an update.

The rules for the JM MLB system can be found in post #25 and the filters in post #35. Any results and information regarding last season are in posts #26 and #27. GL All

[Wallco99]

I did some quick testing (nothing in-depth) for home teams on in-division series... Sadly I couldn't finish it on time but it looks like for every 3 or 4 straight games at home, at least 1 is over and at least 1 is under even with the worst team in the division

Nothing conclusive yet though..

I also tested that as well, it will end badly.

[J.M. Disciple]

I also tested that as well, it will end badly.

way to ruin the story for me... I wanted to read the whole book first!


Something that has been brought up in on3 thread that friend of mine showed me. Same as last year when we discussed not playing teams that were under .500 or reverse only play teams at home that are above .500 and they are against road teams who are under .500. I am not sure if I could post links of other threads here, but I did PM a guy about it earlier. Where on3 went negative last season, with this filter another guy from different forum has been positive past 3 years doing it this way.

Logic behind it is to avoid a good team like LAA who are on a losing streak. Other part of the filter is they have to have won their last 2 of 3 at home. I did not see a full back test done on this, but I know guy was positive for last 3 years. Check it out yourself if you want. Would only take a minute to do capping for each team that qualifies under the -145 rule.

[J.M. Disciple]

Who would of thought... Mia & hou.... Too bad I was on other side of those two teams today.... well, I still have hope in the hou / oak game at least. Glad this system did not turn out to total shit right off the bat. Remind me of the John morrison NBA season. Every bet beginning of season seemed to have gone to B or C for the first months, before we hit a string of A bet wins.

[hagball52]

JM MLB System
2013 Official season series record 0-0 (V1)
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
V2 plays 0-0
V3 system 0-0
Unofficial series 3-0
(A) 0-3
(B) 2-1
(C) 1-0
(D) 0-0
V2 plays 2-0


Next Plays
*Unofficial*
04/16/2013 Miami (.443) v Washington (.523) +1.5 R/L /M/L(B) V2 WIN
04/16/2013 Houston (.426) @ Oakland (.529) +1.5 R/L (B) WIN

Upcoming Plays
04/29/2013 LA Angels @ Oakland
04/29/2013 Washington @ Atlanta
05/14/2013 Tampa Bay v Boston
05/16/2013 Colorado v San Francisco

Notes: Nice to get the 2 wins last night. It's hard to have confidence in crappy teams. Today we have 3 possible sweeps in play and possibly a fourth depending on that (PHI/CIN) series. They suspended the game in the 9th inning and will complete it today. At this time there are no more plays until the end of the month. Will keep you all informed of sweeps and upcoming plays. Have a great day everyone.

The rules for the JM MLB system can be found in post #25 and the filters in post #35. Any results and information regarding last season are in posts #26 and #27. GL All

[cape07]

I also tested that as well, it will end badly.

Good to know! Thanks!

I have on my list testin for a 3 game chase after a push.. Anyone's dond that already?

[allidoiswin89]

Done with the back test

2012
+43 units

2011
+100 units

2010
+33 units

2009
+25 units

2008
+35 units

[cambertos]

Where do you guys go for stats? Been using mlb and ESPN was wondering if there's better

[allidoiswin89]

2013 MLB O/U System

Official plays 0-0
Unofficial plays 7-0

4/17
Official Plays
Doesn't start until May 1st

Unofficial plays
Tam @ Bal over 8 -115 (C)
Phi @ Cin over over 8.5 -120 (C)

[J.M. Disciple]

2013 MLB O/U System

Official plays 0-0
Unofficial plays 7-0

4/17
Official Plays
Doesn't start until May 1st

Unofficial plays
Tam @ Bal over 8 -115 (C)
Phi @ Cin over over 8.5 -120 (C)

You and wallco should compare notes, because I do believe he said this will end badly.

[DollarBill10]

Is it a 3 game chase or a 4 game chase?

[allidoiswin89]

You and wallco should compare notes, because I do believe he said this will end badly.

Lol please tell me what you think the rules are to this system since I haven't made it public

4 game chase

[J.M. Disciple]

Lol please tell me what you think the rules are to this system since I haven't made it public

4 game chase

Sorry mixed you and cape07 up... Good to hear its not controversial than. Care to share the rules?

[Wallco99]

Good to know! Thanks!

I have on my list testin for a 3 game chase after a push.. Anyone's dond that already?

I haven't tried that one yet.

[Wallco99]

2013 MLB O/U System

Official plays 0-0
Unofficial plays 7-0

4/17
Official Plays
Doesn't start until May 1st

Unofficial plays
Tam @ Bal over 8 -115 (C)
Phi @ Cin over over 8.5 -120 (C)

What is the criteria for these plays? Several things have been mentioned lately and I forget which one you were working on.

[Wallco99]

You and wallco should compare notes, because I do believe he said this will end badly.

I don't believe I ever responded to him that it wouldn't work. Mainly because I have no idea what he tested for. I was talking about the two potential systems that you and the other guy brought up yesterday, not this one, whatever it is. But if his backtest is accurate, then it definitely wasn't one that I tested yet.

[niwde26]

I cant believe there are only few play for this system. But this is okay, as long we are winning

[cape07]

Walco, can you list the systems you've tested and the ones that you're currently testing?

Those of you who have tested systems might want to do this too... This way we know precisely what strategies have been tested and we can think of other systems to test.

- I'm currently testing a 3 game chase MLB, of both O&U after a Push. 5 years of data for all teams.

[cape07]

Where do you guys go for stats? Been using mlb and ESPN was wondering if there's better

I like covers and oddshark. At covers got to mlb, then teams, then "past results". At oddsshark mlb/game logs

[hagball52]

JM MLB System
2013 Official season series record 0-0 (V1)
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
V2 plays 0-0
V3 system 0-0
Unofficial series 3-0
(A) 0-3
(B) 2-1
(C) 1-0
(D) 0-0
V2 plays 2-0

Next Plays
None until 04/29

Upcoming Plays
04/29/2013 LA Angels @ Oakland
04/29/2013 Washington @ Atlanta
05/14/2013 Tampa Bay v Boston
05/16/2013 Colorado v San Francisco

Notes: There were 3 sweeps yesterday. Plays listed below. There are 4 possible sweeps today with 3 having future plays. I can't believe the number of rain outs and postponed games we've had so far. I gave up on trying to track rescheduled games. Hopefully I'll catch them as they come up.
05/17 PHI v CIN
05/24 HOU v OAK
06/03 LAD v SDG

The rules for the JM MLB system can be found in post #25 and the filters in post #35. Any results and information regarding last season are in posts #26 and #27. GL All