Post-All Star Break Ganchalysis

[Ganchrow]

Arizona - Despite Arizona's recent streak of futility, they have been profitable on the road all season with a return of about 16% over 46 games. Even in June and July, this was the case, at about 8% over 12 games in June, and 45% over 8 games in July. In the second half they could well be significantly undervalued on the road. Their lineup is better than what would be expected of a team with their recent performance, and their bullpen could also very well improve. They have some solid young starters, so there could be a good number of games with value on the side of Arizona.

Atlanta - Atlanta's offense underachieved in the first half, and it is likely that they will go on a strong run for part or most of the second half. This heating up already seems to have begun in the first part of July. In June, they scored more than 5 runs only twice out of 27 games, and both were losses. In July, they scored more than 5 runs 5 times out of 9 games, 4 of them wins. Combined with their always iffy pen, look for them to have a strong "over" tendency for the second half (they were 8-1 to the over in July), especially at home where it will be hot and where they tend to have low totals. If they start winning, however, they will probably be appropriately valued, and in fact may well quickly become overvalued.

Baltimore - Look for Baltimore to go "over" in their summer day games. It gets hot at Camden, and the ball tends to carry in the summer heat. In May/June/July they were 6-1 to the over at home in the day. They have been an "over" team in general this year, at 50-35 overall, as well as 28-17 at home. Other than that, they have been an average and appropriately valued team this year, and that should continue in the second half. Erik Bedard's recent dominance is not a mirage. He had a run like this in the past, and until there are reasonable signs that something has changed, expect it to continue.

Boston - One might expect Boston to be a perpetually overvalued team, but in fact they have been quite undervalued this year, especially at home. They have had a return of about 2% over 49 road games, and about 22% over 37 home games this year. It remains to be seen how they will be valued in the second half, but they are likely to remain a good bet, especially at home, and especially when they have a capable starter going.

Cubs - The Cubs obviously had a very rough first half, although interestingly, like Arizona, they were a good bet on the road in June and July. In June they had a return of 15% over 16 games, and in July, 40% over 7 games. They are likely to continue having problems, however. All of their starters struggle with consistency, even Zambrano. Dempster blew 5 saves in the first half, all resulting in losses, and he is likely to blow at least that many again in the second half. Their offense is likely to be mediocre at best, and unless it comes alive and their big bats start producing prodigiously, they should be mostly a bad bet in the second half, even as a sizable underdog.

White Sox - The White Sox are a great team of course, but as good as everyone knows they are, they were undervalued in the first half of this year. They had a return of about 5% over 41 road games, and 17% over 47 home games. They are sure to be a highly valued team for the entire second half, but their pitching is actually a bit unstable, so there should be opportunities where they will be vulnerable as a big favorite. Buehrle and Garland both have high degrees of volatility, with propensities for getting hit hard, and not infrequently. Garcia also has some negative indicators that could foretell a rough second half. Even Contreras has been rocky of late. Their offense will obviously be a game-saver many times, but it would be wise to keep a careful eye on how the White Sox progress during the second half.

[bigboydan]

i look for Arizona to continue there downward spiral in the 2nd half of the season.

it sure does seem like grimsley's confession to the feds continues to haunt them, and will this whole rest of the season.

[Ganchrow]

Cincinnati - Cincinnati closed out the first half on a bad run, and that is likely to be the story for them in the second half, at least to start out with. Their pen vulnerabilities are bad for them both on the road and at home in their hitters' park, and their patchwork bullpen is likely to blow a lot of games in the second half. Even Coffey, the one guy who threw well from their pen early on, has gotten hit hard of late. Their success on the road in the first half is likely to prove to be a mirage. Their offense will be able to win some games, and their high volatility in pitching is likely to make them the classic good dog/bad fave team in the second half. Interestingly, despite playing in a hitters' park with a decent lineup and a bad pen, their totals have been appropriate; they were only 21-19 to the over at home in the first half.

Cleveland - Cleveland was solidly overvalued in the first half, but their second half prospects are very unclear. Both their offense and their starting pitching have real potential to become improved and more consistent in the second half, and if either of those things happens Cleveland is likely to show a profit at the end of the second half. Their bullpen is questionable, but it also has the potential to improve significantly. Keep an eye out for signs of strong play from Cleveland.

Colorado - After the strong run of home unders at Coors early in the season (0-10 to the over in May), the lines caught up, and at home they were only 9-12 to the over in June/July. Look for hotter weather, lower totals, and possible humidor changes to produce a trend of overs at Coors in the second half. Colorado has a strong lineup, but iffy starting pitching, and because of that their performance is likely to hover around their valuation throughout the second half.

Detroit - Detroit was strongly undervalued the entire first half, returning roughly 30% on the road and 15% at home. They were also a strong "under" team, at 31-53 to the over. The underlying causes of those trends are solid. The lines may well catch up a bit with these trends, so keep an eye out for Detroit becoming less undervalued and less of a strong "under" team in the second half, but until the lines do adjust accordingly, Detroit will continue to be a strong play in both of these areas.

Florida - Florida has been a very streaky team this year, both with respect to money lines and to totals. This makes some sense as they are a talented but young team, and would be expected to experience the high volatility young players are prone to in the majors. That streakiness may well continue into the second half, and additionally, they might hit a wall of fatigue as the season wears on. They may experience a long losing period in late July or August, especially on the road. Also, their strong "over" trend of the first half (50-34 to the over) is likely to level out for the second half.

Houston - Houston will have to get their offense going if they are to make a post-season run and be a profitable second half play. This is a real possibility, however. It is the number one priority according to Houston management, and over the break they both replaced their hitting coach and aquired Aubrey Huff. They have a slew of respectable bats in the lineup, and if a few of them start hitting well, Houston will have a stretch of profitability in the second half.

[Ganchrow]

Kansas City - Some people might be surprised to hear that in the first half, while Kansas City did have a return of about -20% on the road, they actually also had a profitable return of about 15% at home. In June and July, they were only 18-18 overall, but they were such consistent underdogs that they actually had a profitable return of about 30% in June, and about 50% in July. It is very uncertain who will be playing when and how they will perform in the second half, but a close monitoring of the lines and relative performance of Kansas City will be valuable. They are likely to have strong and relatively obvious periods of over and/or undervaluation.

Angels - The Angels had some notable totals trends in the first half. They were 25-16 to the over on the road, 10-20 to the over at home at night, but 7-4 to the over at home in the day. Expect the home trends to continue, but the road trend to even out. They have some quality in their starting rotation and bullpen, so their limited offense needs to be only modestly productive for them to be a profitable play, and it looks like that will be the case in the second half. If the pitching roughly holds up, the Angels will be a much better play in the second half than they were in the first half.

Dodgers - The most surprising first half result from the Dodgers was their strong "over" trend at home. They were 32-13 to the over, including 20-5 with a total of 8.5 or higher. It will be interesting to see if the lines adjust in the second half. They probably will, and the Dodgers' varying lineups utilize a lot of youngsters. They probably overachieved in the first half, so look for the Dodgers' second half home total results to be closer to 50/50. If their offense does indeed cool down a bit in the second half, they will also likely be a strongly overvalued team as well, as their pitching in both their starters and their bullpen has questions of durability and stamina.

Milwaukee - On the road in the first half, Milwaukee was 25-13 to the over, yet 15-26 with a return of about -22% for the money lines. This indicates that their pitching was particularly bad on the road, and that will likely revert to the mean in the second half. For now, they are solid, but not spectacular, and they seem to be appropriately valued in all areas.

Minnesota - Minnesota had problems hitting on the road in the first half, and their results show a sharp home/road contrast. On the road they were a strong "under" and had a large negative return for money lines, and at home they were a strong "over" with a large positive return for money lines. Their offensive production at home is likely to cool off a bit in the second half, although when either Liriano or Santana is starting, they will still have great value at home. When their other starters are going, especially on the road, they will probably be overvalued.

Mets - The Mets were obviously strong in the first half and will be so again in the second half, but they were only modestly undervalued in the first half. At home, despite going 27-18, they had a return of only about 3%. As the summer rolls on, however, their depth will be advantageous, especially at home, so look for them to have a solid return at home for the second half. Their starting pitching is their weak link, and their first half record of 49-36 to the over should roughly repeat itself in the second half.

[Ganchrow]

Yankees - The Yankees in general were appropriately valued in the first half; they had a return on the road of approximately 4%, and at home of approximately -6%. In June and July, however, when they were experiencing multiple injury problems, they were slightly overvalued. The key to the Yankees is their bullpen, which could well cost them a bunch of games in the second half. It is very unlikely that the Yankees will be undervalued at all in the second half, but there will likely be many games and/or a strech where they will be significantly overvalued, so it would be wise to keep an eye out for those.

Oakland - Oakland had a very unusual and unexpected day/night home totals split in the first half, where they were 4-16 to the over in the daytime, and 13-9 to the over at night. It is not clear why this was the case, but it is not likely to continue in the second half. Their bullpen will have a lot more depth and consistency in the second half than it did in the first, and that is likely to benefit them a lot, especially at home, where they had a return of -8% in the first half. Expect Oakland to have a better return at home than on the road in the second half, but their offense is likely to remain weak, and if it does, their returns both at home and on the road are very likely to be solidly negative.

Philadelphia - Philadelphia is an underachieving team, and they will likely be that way for the remainder of the season. They were also overvalued in the first half, with a return of about -3% on the road, and about -19% at home. Expect them to have negative returns both at home and on the road in the second half as well. Their lineup and pitching are decent, but their whole is less than the sum of their parts, and unless they shows real signs that that it no longer the case, expect it to be.

Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh was shockingly bad on the road in the first half, with an eye-popping return of -50%. However, as happened last year with 2 teams that were dreadful on the road in the beginning of the season (Colorado and Houston), these sorts of teams do sometimes turn it around and enter into winning periods on the road with considerable undervaluation. That could happen with Pittsburgh as well, as they do have some talent in their lineup, in their bullpen, and certainly in their young starting staff, most of whom have excelled in the majors at some point in the recent past.

San Diego - San Diego had a stark first half day/night totals disparity at home, as did Oakland, another West Coast pitchers' park, but San Diego's was what would be expected, with a 12-3 record to the over in the daytime, and 11-17 at night. Their day game totals may well creep up and the night totals may creep down, however, and if they do, expect their results to be much closer to 50% in the second half. The San Diego players have traditionally chafed at having to play at Petco, and this year they were again profitable on the road with a return of 28%, but money-losing at home with a return of -13.3%. They do have some good pitching, and if their offense can improve a little, which it may, they will be profitable in the second half. Peavey seems to be fine for the second half, and although his record so far is terrible, the lines will probably still price him as if he were having a great year.

Seattle - Seattle is an up and down team in general in recent years, and this year they have hitters who can go on tears or who go ice cold. They are likely to settle in as an above-average team in the second half, as they have some quality pitching in both their starting five and in their bullpen, and they have a lineup that, while it can get shut down relatively easily, can also explode with productivity at times. In the first half they had a return of -8% at home, but they should be solidly profitable at home in the second half.

[DrSlamm]

i think you forgot your alphabet when you left off the giants!!!

[Ganchrow]

San Francisco - San Francisco was 15-4 to the over at home in the day in the first half, and unless the lines adjust, they should be profitable in that area again in the second half. San Francisco was almost perfectly valued in the first half, both at home and on the road, and that should also be roughly the case in the second half, as they are consistently mediocre in every aspect of the game.

St. Louis - In June and July, the pitching for St. Louis began to seriously falter, causing them to be both overvalued and a strong "over" team. In June they had an overall return of about -33%, and were 16-8 to the over. In July, they had an overall return of 1% and were 7-1 to the over. Isringhausen has been troublesome all year, giving up a lot of walks and home runs. That is likely to continue for him, and he is likely to get burned even more in the second half than he did in the first, and he will cause St. Louis to lose a bunch of games. If their pitching continues to go down the tubes, they will likely be solidly overvalued for most of the second half, although their totals will probably be high, so they will be less of a strong "over" as they were in June and July.

Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay's offense may be weaker than expected for the second half. Huff was traded just as he was getting hot, and Gomes has been terrible for a few months now, which is probably due to his lingering injury. The rest of their lineup does have some potential explosiveness to it, so it would be wise to closely monitor Tampa Bay's offensive ups and downs in the second half. They had a return of about 15% at home in the first half, and they are likely to have a similar undervaluation at home in the second half, especially if they play poorly on the road or have small losing stretches. Their pitching will be key, particularly their bullpen, which will make a big difference if it is unusually weak or strong in the second half. If their bullpen becomes reliable, look for them to be solidly undervalued for the entire second half.

Texas - Texas was, perhaps surprisingly, 19-27 to the over at home in the first half, but in the hot summer months that is very likely to even out to at least 50/50. Their starting pitching will be key, and they are likely to be undervalued if a few of their decent starters have consistent second halves.

Toronto - Toronto was less of an "over" team in June and July than they were in the earlier months of the season, and that will likely be the case the rest of the way. in April and May they were 30-16 to the over, but in June and July, they were 15-19 to the over. Their middle relievers are weak, but their offense is cooling off and they have generally high totals. They are a strong team when their top starters are going however. It remains to be seen how their line valuations will turn out in those games. They are likely to wind up slightly, but not majorly, undervalued.

Washington - The addition of some solid hitters, and the subtraction of some solid relievers, will have a significant impact on Washington's second half performance. Their offense was already on the improve, and that is sure to be enhanced by the addition of Kearns and Lopez. They are likely to produce a period of overs in the beginning of the second half, but if that does happen, the lines are likely to catch up relatively quickly. In general they were overvalued in the first half, with an overall return of about -10%. With their offense in gear they will be poised to win a lot more games. Their pitching, however, has questions, although with guys like Patterson, Livan Hernandez, and others, the answers could be not all bad. If their pitching does reach its top potential, they will be solidly undervalued in the second half. Any game started by someone who seems to be in reasonably good form will very likely be a good bet, especially if the bullpen can replace the losses with some capable people, which is quite possible.