CFL

[icecapper]

Agree with KVB. Also a lean to the over 51.

[Ra77er]

Market does not seem mature enough on this one to you KVB?

[KVB]

No long write up here, I'm taking BC -3 (-105) vs Saskatchewan. The market just smells of it. Saskatchewan is going to fall to 0-3 after tonight.

It just makes sense for CFL right now.

Good cover with Montreal fellas.

For this game I did want to share some early season thoughts. This isn’t so much about BC winning as it is about Saskatchewan not covering the spread. I mentioned that in the first game I thought Montreal would unload on Winnipeg. Well it seems those same unsophisticated formulas have Saskatchewan doing the unloading.

The thing is, with these metrics, against the spread they are designed to go 50-50, especially at this point in the season. They will, over time, be about 50-50. In most market environments, over the long haul, it’s shown to be mathematically worth the bet.

So for this game I reasoned that, with Montreal covering spread (with a push on the close) and basically succeeding in the first game, that Saskatchewan would not cover the spread or succeed in the second game.

The angle here again has to do with the markets. Make no mistake, the books are still taking positions and the oddsmakers know it. I’m not so much saying (at this point) that the result of one game influences the next; but, just as you can view light as both a particle and a wave, you could view the issues and markets as such.

I’m essentially following what I consider unsophisticated money and trying to pick it off, just like the books. Right now the oddsmakers, in my opinion, are shading those lines in a certain direction, greatly helping the books.

As far as methods go, let me just say there are many ways to handicap the CFL and I am looking at them as they become available through season progression.

As the season moves on the lines and bettors get sharper and more sophisticated.

At this writing Saskatchewan just scored a TD and leads 7-0.

It wouldn’t surprise me if we push the 3 point spread tonight.

[KVB]

Looks like OT with a 29-29 score. Kind of funny, I had a penciled in prediction of 60 points for this game, but BC has only played one game so the indication wasn't strong at all.

Yet another OT or extra inning game I'm involved. Seems like that's been happening a lot recently.

[Ra77er]

That was insane call KVB

[Jayvegas420]

this is an awesome thread.
what are we on at 9:00 tonight?

[icecapper]

this is an awesome thread.
what are we on at 9:00 tonight?

Argos Stamps? Game is on Monday at 9:00.

[johnny99]

Lost by 1 point...feeling like got kicked right in da balls LOL

[recon1]

Yeah, good thread. I think CFL would gather more of an American audience, if they only watched the games.

[jjgold]

How does anybody watch this league?

[Jayvegas420]

When you pick like this guy, its pretty easy!!!!

[Ghenghis Kahn]

i have no clue about cfl but just bet the dogs. the dogs might've covered every fukking game.

[Jayvegas420]

All but two so far, unless you got a bad line like two ways

[Ghenghis Kahn]

i would never take -3 on any of the cfl games due to their whacked ass ot rule.

[jjgold]

You do not have to know anything about any sport to win

I love when guys think they know a sport

[Jayvegas420]

I'm cleaning up on the camel racing.
I am a curling expert & have not lost a caber toss match up

[KVB]

Now JJ you know better. Of course, you are, in sense, right about knowing the sport. It’s how you use your information that counts. This is more about market analysis. Sure, I’ll play the game out in my head a little, but you won’t see me writing too much about this player matchup vs that, etc.

I’m creating multiple lines based on sophistication and comparing those to the offered lines. I’m following the money and anticipating positions. This type of analysis is probably easiest early in the season, but my line can get fairly sophisticated. Things will sharpen as soon as next week.

I wouldn’t say that I “know the CFL better than another sport,” the markets, for the most part, work the same.
You’ve read my write-ups. It is what it is. I will be vague yet specific; I’m looking at the forest, rising above the trees when I can.

Remember light, it is particle vs. wave and I may view these markets through an unfamiliar lens.

It could be too edgy for you JJ.

I could understand if readers are like “What the fuk is he talking about?” as I try to explain my thought process. To help I might offer some lines, even how to create some simple basic lines. Truthfully, some things simply can’t be written in thread or it will take a crazy turn. But I think readers will learn and input is essential.

I’ve always said: if you can understand why the line opened where it did and why it moved where it moved, it will go a long way towards successful betting.

We’re going to get this CFL this year, one quarter of a season at a time.

[Jayvegas420]

Kvb is my new favourite poster.
Did you used to have a soccer avatar?
Even JJ respects winners!

[KVB]

this is an awesome thread.
what are we on at 9:00 tonight?

Pass on both the total and point spread. I think it's Calgary but that line movement bugs me too much and my ratings are not very strong as each team has only played two games this season.

[KVB]

Kvb is my new favourite poster.
Did you used to have a soccer avatar?
Even JJ respects winners!

Never had an avatar, am open to suggestions. I see it as two ways, you bring your avatar, stand by it and post strong, or you post a bit and let the Forum pick one, kind of like a nickname you earn.

[Ra77er]

No avatar KVB, you are unique. I like Calgary to win by 7 on the number.

[KVB]

No avatar KVB, you are unique. I like Calgary to win by 7 on the number.

I am agreeing in both points. It has come to a point where no avatar is the avatar, lol.

And yes, I don't think the +7 is going to pay. The question was whether or not Calgary -7.5 or -8 was going to be good. I think +6.5 or less is a losing bet. I suppose I should have bought the favorite anyway.

I do not think it will be an upset but didn't see much value, for what that means so early in the season, on the favorite money line.

[Ra77er]

Smart play I watched this game closely, I'm still learning.

[Duckshit]

Smart play is the dog, all year long...... Imop

[Jayvegas420]

Toronto will lose by more than 8!

[KVB]

Playing to the number with an 8 point lead. I think we may have missed an early season winner with the favorite tonight.

With an 8 point lead, the halftime bet was impossible to reconcile.

They know we're gunnin' for them.

[Jayvegas420]

What was the half time line?

[KVB]

Calgary -3 (-115) to -3.5.

[Jayvegas420]

Should have known I was in trouble

[Ghenghis Kahn]

dog covers again.

[Jayvegas420]

Sick

[Jayvegas420]

Wonderful call at the 2:00 min mark

[KVB]

...I think we may have missed an early season winner with the favorite tonight...

or not.

[Art Vandelay]

Yeah, good thread. I think CFL would gather more of an American audience, if they only watched the games.

Obviously a huge NFL fan but love the CFL! Totally different brand of football from American game, plus this fills the gap till our game starts in September. Love the quirky rules and open style of play with the 3 downs. If more Americans gave it a chance they would grow to like it!

[Ra77er]

Nice win Calgary!