Some of you may remember a while a back when I challenged the Forum to little game of marbles. You can visit that thread here:
The goal was to assess a little bit the knowledge level of the posters as I noticed some knew little, some knew a lot, but what many do know is wrong. It’s the nature of sports betting and with each new crop of bettors, the myths prevail.
Today we aren’t addressing a myth, but again challenging ourselves with the concepts of probability…
So you walk into the Aladdin (Now Planet Hollywood) and a genie appears. With him are three piggy banks. He tells you that one of those piggy banks contains a ticket redeemable at the cashier worth $10,000. The other two piggy banks are empty. For free, you get to choose one.
Once you’ve made your choice, you cannot peek inside the bank until you reach the cashier at the back of the casino. The cashier opens the piggy banks.
On your way to the cashier, the genie appears again; holding the remaining two piggy banks. This time he smashes one on the floor and you see that it is empty. He then makes an offer.
1. You can keep the piggy bank you have.
2. You can trade the piggy bank you have for the one he is holding.
3. The genie will give you $5,000 and you walk away with no piggy bank.
Remember, one of the piggy banks is worth $10,000 and the other is empty.
What do you do? Do you swap piggy banks? Do you continue on to the cashier? Or do you take the $5,000 and walk away?
Please don’t look at the problem from an angle of what 5 or 10 thousand dollars means to you. This is not about the dollar amount. This is about making the correct decision. A bettor might like a team for this or that reason, but often there is really only one way to bet it.
That is the case here.
So what would you do? Why?
The goal was to assess a little bit the knowledge level of the posters as I noticed some knew little, some knew a lot, but what many do know is wrong. It’s the nature of sports betting and with each new crop of bettors, the myths prevail.
Today we aren’t addressing a myth, but again challenging ourselves with the concepts of probability…
So you walk into the Aladdin (Now Planet Hollywood) and a genie appears. With him are three piggy banks. He tells you that one of those piggy banks contains a ticket redeemable at the cashier worth $10,000. The other two piggy banks are empty. For free, you get to choose one.
Once you’ve made your choice, you cannot peek inside the bank until you reach the cashier at the back of the casino. The cashier opens the piggy banks.
On your way to the cashier, the genie appears again; holding the remaining two piggy banks. This time he smashes one on the floor and you see that it is empty. He then makes an offer.
1. You can keep the piggy bank you have.
2. You can trade the piggy bank you have for the one he is holding.
3. The genie will give you $5,000 and you walk away with no piggy bank.
Remember, one of the piggy banks is worth $10,000 and the other is empty.
What do you do? Do you swap piggy banks? Do you continue on to the cashier? Or do you take the $5,000 and walk away?
Please don’t look at the problem from an angle of what 5 or 10 thousand dollars means to you. This is not about the dollar amount. This is about making the correct decision. A bettor might like a team for this or that reason, but often there is really only one way to bet it.
That is the case here.
So what would you do? Why?
"Alright Genie, face down and wallet and phone out!"
