[KVB]

Some of you may remember a while a back when I challenged the Forum to little game of marbles. You can visit that thread here:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...ck-parlay.html

The goal was to assess a little bit the knowledge level of the posters as I noticed some knew little, some knew a lot, but what many do know is wrong. It’s the nature of sports betting and with each new crop of bettors, the myths prevail.

Today we aren’t addressing a myth, but again challenging ourselves with the concepts of probability…

So you walk into the Aladdin (Now Planet Hollywood) and a genie appears. With him are three piggy banks. He tells you that one of those piggy banks contains a ticket redeemable at the cashier worth $10,000. The other two piggy banks are empty. For free, you get to choose one.

Once you’ve made your choice, you cannot peek inside the bank until you reach the cashier at the back of the casino. The cashier opens the piggy banks.

On your way to the cashier, the genie appears again; holding the remaining two piggy banks. This time he smashes one on the floor and you see that it is empty. He then makes an offer.

1. You can keep the piggy bank you have.

2. You can trade the piggy bank you have for the one he is holding.

3. The genie will give you $5,000 and you walk away with no piggy bank.

Remember, one of the piggy banks is worth $10,000 and the other is empty.

What do you do? Do you swap piggy banks? Do you continue on to the cashier? Or do you take the $5,000 and walk away?

Please don’t look at the problem from an angle of what 5 or 10 thousand dollars means to you. This is not about the dollar amount. This is about making the correct decision. A bettor might like a team for this or that reason, but often there is really only one way to bet it.

That is the case here.

So what would you do? Why?

[stevegreazy]

Pull out a gun and tell the genie to give me all his cash and all the piggy banks he has...

Pretty simple riddle

[grease lightnin]

I will take the risk - free $5k.

[James Marques]

This is from the Drunkard' Walk, if I'm not mistaken. The Monty Carl Rule.

[SharpAngles]

This is some bastardized version of the Monty Hall Problem, except he doesn't offer you half a car risk free. In this case the highest EV is walking with a guaranteed 5k. The true MHP you would switch every time.

Anyone here who doesn't understand why you switch every time is a loser at gambling.

[YorkHunt]

Everyone reading this is reading it 15 times trying to come up with the most intelligent answer.....THAT should answer your question KVB...

You cant peek inside but you didnt say you cannot shake it up

[StatsKing]

1: ev=3,333
2: ev=6,667
3: ev=5000

[KVB]

Everyone reading this is reading it 15 times trying to come up with the most intelligent answer.....THAT should answer your question KVB...

You cant peek inside but you didnt say you cannot shake it up

I like this.

York brings up an excellent point here. If you want win at betting on sports you simply have to be able to search "outside the box" to find an edge. It may not directly apply to our answer here, but this necessary ingredient should not be taken lightly.

[KVB]

Pull out a gun and tell the genie to give me all his cash and all the piggy banks he has...

Pretty simple riddle

"Alright Genie, face down and wallet and phone out!"

[KVB]

I will take the risk - free $5k.

Lightnin says 5 g's is enough for him. He walks.

But grease, this wasn't about what you "will" or "would" do, this is about what you should do . It's about how you should bet it.

Remember, "A bettor might like a team for this or that reason, but often there is really only one way to bet it."

[KVB]

This is some bastardized version of the Monty Hall Problem, except he doesn't offer you half a car risk free. In this case the highest EV is walking with a guaranteed 5k. The true MHP you would switch every time.

Anyone here who doesn't understand why you switch every time is a loser at gambling.

At first glance this post appears a bit sharp. Then a further view reveals a fatal contradiction. If the highest EV is walking out with the guaranteed 5k, why would you switch every time? Something has got to give.

And I hope you used "loser" in factual, non condescending tone here, because your post hardly warrants arrogance.

Read "The Two Pick Parley" (link above), I think we address EV in that thread. Many gamblers don't understand the concepts of EV. It's worth reviewing.

[KVB]

1: ev=3,333
2: ev=6,667
3: ev=5000

Care to elaborate? It looks like you say to switch piggie banks. If so, what could the Genie offer you to make you take his offer and run?

[smoke a bowl]

It all depends? If the piggy bank that was broken could have had the 10k in it then it's a 50/50 proposition between the remaining 2 banks. However if the genie predetermined he/she was going to break the bank with no money in it 1st then it is obviously correct to switch and take the 66.67% piggy bank over the 33.33% piggy bank.

[Pete0]

I've read about this strategy somewhere

The correct decision is to switch spots with the one the genie is holding. Correct ?

[smoke a bowl]

Care to elaborate? It looks like you say to switch piggie banks. If so, what could the Genie offer you to make you take his offer and run?

$6667 if I knew the genie 100% knew that he was breaking and empty piggy bank. However if the bank that the genie broke had the same 33.33% chance that the other 2 banks had to have the 10k in it then now the remaining 2 banks are worth 5k each in equity or 50/50.

[jjgold]

The genie will give you $5,000 and you walk away with no piggy bank.