John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

[casdio]

A-B-C PLAYER

A) $182 to win $100
B) $513 to win $282
C) $1447 to win $795

Total Risk $2,142

Based on 1.82 odds or -182 (After buying 3 points)
------------------------------------------------------------------
B&C pLayers (bet to win 3 units per series Skipping A bets)

B) $546 to win $300

C) $1540 to win $846

Risk: $2,086
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Player 1-3-5

A) $110 to win $100
B) $451 to win $410
C) $1,167 to win $1,061
Risk: $1728

A is 1.1 to win 100; B is the $110 loss on A + trying to win 3 units; C is A+B loss + trying to win 5 units.

***If anyone else about the math please refer back to this post***

Points appreciated.
+2
+2
+2

Thanks =P

Is the odd correct? I always bet @ 1.55 when buying 3 points

[Nino7]

the plays should be Oklahoma City Houston both B and spurs A

[Wallco99]

There was some one in this forum that said they play poker quite a bit. I took live poker back up recently coming from a low stake professional grinder online and now transitioning into live games. I have good results so far at $1/$2/$2 averaging $39/hr over 24hrs, but Idk what the long run holds for me. I have heard good players average between $25-$30/hr long run depending on location of casino, tips, rake, etc...

If you play poker for a living or know more stats about live games please share some details or message me. I know I play at bay 101 in San jose near my house and rake is $5 cap for $1/$2/$2. There are about 30 hands / hr so it cost about $15 a hour in rake for each player. I guess I am doing quite well so far, but would like to have at least 500 hours of play in to even start assuming what I would average / hr at $1/2/2.

Thanks
JMD

You may need to change your initials from J.M.D. to A.D.D. You are all over the place, and never seem to stay with one thing for more than 1 day. I'm just messing with you, but seriously, focus on one thing and stay with it.

[Maxi_EV]

There was some one in this forum that said they play poker quite a bit. I took live poker back up recently coming from a low stake professional grinder online and now transitioning into live games. I have good results so far at $1/$2/$2 averaging $39/hr over 24hrs, but Idk what the long run holds for me. I have heard good players average between $25-$30/hr long run depending on location of casino, tips, rake, etc...

If you play poker for a living or know more stats about live games please share some details or message me. I know I play at bay 101 in San jose near my house and rake is $5 cap for $1/$2/$2. There are about 30 hands / hr so it cost about $15 a hour in rake for each player. I guess I am doing quite well so far, but would like to have at least 500 hours of play in to even start assuming what I would average / hr at $1/2/2.

Thanks
JMD

Making a living out of 1/2 LIVE is barely impossible. Particularly since the Black Friday. Live games are tougher that they use to be with online grinders taking their chances live. YOU ARE ON A HEATER. Enjoy it.

39$/hour @ 30 hands per hour
128.70$/100 hands
32.17 bb /100 hands (PTbb) !!!!

NOBODY CAN KILL THE GAME THAT MUCH @ 1/2 NL !!!!!

A GREAT player will kill the game at 3 to 4 bb/100 hands
that means live: 3.63$ to 4.84$ / hour LIVE

Let's assume you are a MACHINE and you can kill the game at 10 bb/100 hands, you would run at 12$/hour.

You will also need more than 500 hours of play to have a good idea where you stand at.
500 hours live = 15 000 hands.

We all have seen downswings online lasting for 50 000+ hands !!!

So, I wish you that the games are juicy @ your local casino and a good run!


BOL

[djluvr]

They did not. They lost 89-87. Brutal game to watch

Thanks mate. I had them at +2.5 so marked as a win

[thelimit0310]

Sorry guys I was in no position today to make the JM Play post. I will be posting it soon anyway to make it easier to follow tomorrow.

One more thing, the 7/5 testing will be done by the end of the week and I will release all findings to you guys then. There has been a small complication in the tests that is being ironed out. Thanks to you all for being patient.

[dlunc3]

wow... i looked and NO was up 16... just looked again and they are down 10... 26 point swing? ugly

[ClevelandNextYr]

Hornets outscored 30-12 in 4th qtr with 20 sec left. I also had Wash and LAL choke away leads in 4th qtr tonight. Terrible night

[stevex]

Yeh, been a tough week and a half for me. Both of SBP's NBA systems have been absolutely awful. Luckily I implement a labby and JM NBA has been doing decent

[COBRA31]

A-B-C PLAYER

A) $182 to win $100
B) $513 to win $282
C) $1447 to win $795

Total Risk $2,142

Based on 1.82 odds or -182 (After buying 3 points)
------------------------------------------------------------------
B&C pLayers (bet to win 3 units per series Skipping A bets)

B) $546 to win $300

C) $1540 to win $846

Risk: $2,086
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Player 1-3-5

A) $110 to win $100
B) $451 to win $410
C) $1,167 to win $1,061
Risk: $1728

A is 1.1 to win 100; B is the $110 loss on A + trying to win 3 units; C is A+B loss + trying to win 5 units.

***If anyone else about the math please refer back to this post***

Points appreciated.
+2
+2
+2

Thanks =P

Thanks...I see my mistake in formula. I didn't add the A loss to the C loss total.

Agree that A-C is about 1.5 units behind the B-C if buying points and playing for 1 unit based on YTD record. However..1,3,5 would be way ahead. Also would be way up playing -110 ATS using a 2,3,3 method. This is with the record we have seen so far.

I am going to check the posts...but do you know if there is a break down of all 3 JM systems for A, B, C from past years...I thought I may have seen it floating around.

[1gamer]

JM 3 Team Parlay Hou +10, SAS +2, OKC +4

2.99 to win 9 CASH IT! System +10 units/Open N.O. series -6.50 units

[SkivChef]

JM 3 Team Parlay Hou +10, SAS +2, OKC +4

2.99 to win 9 CASH IT! System +10 units/Open N.O. series -6.50 units

Spurs??

[1gamer]

I have these 2 as B bets and also the Spurs as an A bet...

SAS I wish I would have parlayed these on a JM Modified

[nitsuj378]

Making a living out of 1/2 LIVE is barely impossible. Particularly since the Black Friday. Live games are tougher that they use to be with online grinders taking their chances live. YOU ARE ON A HEATER. Enjoy it.

39$/hour @ 30 hands per hour
128.70$/100 hands
32.17 bb /100 hands (PTbb) !!!!

NOBODY CAN KILL THE GAME THAT MUCH @ 1/2 NL !!!!!

A GREAT player will kill the game at 3 to 4 bb/100 hands
that means live: 3.63$ to 4.84$ / hour LIVE

Let's assume you are a MACHINE and you can kill the game at 10 bb/100 hands, you would run at 12$/hour.

You will also need more than 500 hours of play to have a good idea where you stand at.
500 hours live = 15 000 hands.

We all have seen downswings online lasting for 50 000+ hands !!!

So, I wish you that the games are juicy @ your local casino and a good run!


BOL

Definately almost impossible to make a living playing 1/2 NL. Your sample size of hours and hands is extremely low to derive any sort of expectation from. Not being a dick just stating facts. I deal poker and see players that think they can beat it all the time. There are only 3 people that play in the room I deal that can beat the game consistently but they are just absolute sickos. The rakes are hard to overcome and the games these days just arent that great. I have 2 friends that play for a lving but they move constantly to accomodate the best games. They moved to Florida when the laws changed to incorporate NL. They play 5/10 and 10/25.

[Aiwiz]

walco.. again...

[Kev the Brit]

Thanks...I see my mistake in formula. I didn't add the A loss to the C loss total. Agree that A-C is about 1.5 units behind the B-C if buying points and playing for 1 unit based on YTD record. However..1,3,5 would be way ahead. Also would be way up playing -110 ATS using a 2,3,3 method. This is with the record we have seen so far. I am going to check the posts...but do you know if there is a break down of all 3 JM systems for A, B, C from past years...I thought I may have seen it floating around.

I've attached them below (2006 -2011). According to the stats from 2006 onwards, when buying points, the JM C Bet produces the greatest winning percentage. Therefore, on the face of it, the best way to play the JM system is to only play the C Bets. To prove this, get those stats and check bets to win 11.8 units on the C Bet (no bets on A & B). 11.8 units is the return from risking 21.45 units @ -182/1.55.

Now, having "proven" that the C Bet is the best way forward, the bettor doesn't have to risk 21.45 units (or 21.45 BR%), he can bet what he wants and each bet will not be part of a chase, but the frequency will be a lot less than B-C or A-C. Discipline would be the key.

My only reservation about the C Bet being the most reliable is that the number of C bets, compared with the number of A and B bets is a lot less. This means that the sample is not really comparable with the other 2 bets, even though it has been drawn from many years.

Kev

[COBRA31]

I've attached them below (2006 -2011). According to the stats from 2006 onwards, when buying points, the JM C Bet produces the greatest winning percentage. Therefore, on the face of it, the best way to play the JM system is to only play the C Bets. To prove this, get those stats and check bets to win 11.8 units on the C Bet (no bets on A & B). 11.8 units is the return from risking 21.45 units @ -182/1.55.

Now, having "proven" that the C Bet is the best way forward, the bettor doesn't have to risk 21.45 units (or 21.45 BR%), he can bet what he wants and each bet will not be part of a chase, but the frequency will be a lot less than B-C or A-C. Discipline would be the key.

My only reservation about the C Bet being the most reliable is that the number of C bets, compared with the number of A and B bets is a lot less. This means that the sample is not really comparable with the other 2 bets, even though it has been drawn from many years.

Kev

Thanks Kev....this is fantastic. Exactly what I was looking for. It does seem risky just going on C bets given the overall sample size. I am going to mess around with these records and see how the different variations look. I assume it has all been done before but will help me see the light one way or the other ...as far as to bet the A or not to bet the A.

I think the real win here and deciding factor would be the overall records without buying points ..so everything ATS @ -110. If the records are close to similar...there may be a very good argument to bet the A as the vig is very low and you wouldn't need a large win % to justify the bet.

Really appreciate the assist !

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 29-1 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +10.55 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-8.45 units)

(2/6/12):
#30 New Orleans (M/L) (C) - Loss

v1 Plays
(A) 22-9
(B) 3-6
(C) 2-4
(D) 2-1

V2 Plays
In production


There are no system plays for (2/7/12):
#30 Resumes (D) on 2/8/12


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

[Maxi_EV]

I've attached them below (2006 -2011). According to the stats from 2006 onwards, when buying points, the JM C Bet produces the greatest winning percentage. Therefore, on the face of it, the best way to play the JM system is to only play the C Bets. To prove this, get those stats and check bets to win 11.8 units on the C Bet (no bets on A & B). 11.8 units is the return from risking 21.45 units @ -182/1.55.

Now, having "proven" that the C Bet is the best way forward, the bettor doesn't have to risk 21.45 units (or 21.45 BR%), he can bet what he wants and each bet will not be part of a chase, but the frequency will be a lot less than B-C or A-C. Discipline would be the key.

My only reservation about the C Bet being the most reliable is that the number of C bets, compared with the number of A and B bets is a lot less. This means that the sample is not really comparable with the other 2 bets, even though it has been drawn from many years.

Kev

Is this with ML on fav -3 or higher?

Right now with those numbers, BC 7-5 is a killer with 883 units.
Average 176 units per season!

[mcmister]

I've attached them below (2006 -2011). According to the stats from 2006 onwards, when buying points, the JM C Bet produces the greatest winning percentage. Therefore, on the face of it, the best way to play the JM system is to only play the C Bets. To prove this, get those stats and check bets to win 11.8 units on the C Bet (no bets on A & B). 11.8 units is the return from risking 21.45 units @ -182/1.55.

Now, having "proven" that the C Bet is the best way forward, the bettor doesn't have to risk 21.45 units (or 21.45 BR%), he can bet what he wants and each bet will not be part of a chase, but the frequency will be a lot less than B-C or A-C. Discipline would be the key.

My only reservation about the C Bet being the most reliable is that the number of C bets, compared with the number of A and B bets is a lot less. This means that the sample is not really comparable with the other 2 bets, even though it has been drawn from many years.

Kev

I wonder.... on road series of greater than 3 games, what would be the [D] [E] etc. record?

Also, Kev, do these stats apply any filters or just buying 3 points?

Thank you very much for your effort!

[thelimit0310]

Is this with ML on fav -3 or higher?

Right now with those numbers, BC 7-5 is a killer with 1027 units.
Average 205 units per season!

That's inaccurate. Those results include a 3 point buy and the 7/5 does not utilize 3 points lest you want huge losses.

[eeenvy]

Hey Wallco, just wondering, not sure if you've been asked this... when/if there's a conflicting JM bet and Chase110 bet, which one do you play?

[casdio]

That's inaccurate. Those results include a 3 point buy and the 7/5 does not utilize 3 points lest you want huge losses.

So, the best system will be the one that makes us win the most units/season but also the one that makes us recover those units faster?

With the recover, I mean this:
(For a $1000 bankroll and a 2% unit)

With 7/5 (and 3 points bought) we will lose 44.95 units. We will drop to $101 bankroll. We will need to win 18 straight B bets (7 units of profit in each) to get to $1000+ again.

With 3/5 system, we will only need 12 B straight bets to get $1000+ again.

So, if 7/5 system gives us 200 units/season and 3/5 gives us 175 units/season (random value, I have no idea of the correct one), the 3/5 method is better because it makes us recover faster from loses?

[Nino7]

the 7/5 isnt about buying points so your talking about something that doesnt exist

[thelimit0310]

So, the best system will be the one that makes us win the most units/season but also the one that makes us recover those units faster?

With the recover, I mean this:
(For a $1000 bankroll and a 2% unit)

With 7/5 (and 3 points bought) we will lose 44.95 units. We will drop to $101 bankroll. We will need to win 18 straight B bets (7 units of profit in each) to get to $1000+ again.

With 3/5 system, we will only need 12 B straight bets to get $1000+ again.

So, if 7/5 system gives us 200 units/season and 3/5 gives us 175 units/season (random value, I have no idea of the correct one), the 3/5 method is better because it makes us recover faster from loses?

There is no "3/5" method, no idea where you got that from. As I said the 7/5 doesn't utilize point buying so the stats you bring up don't matter. I will release all that needs to be known by the end of the week give or take a day or two depending on my schedule. There's no need for a discussion until then!

[Maxi_EV]

That's inaccurate. Those results include a 3 point buy and the 7/5 does not utilize 3 points lest you want huge losses.

I did my calculations assuming a 3pts buy @ -185

1 loss = -46 units

My numbers are accurate.

[Maxi_EV]

So, the best system will be the one that makes us win the most units/season but also the one that makes us recover those units faster?

With the recover, I mean this:
(For a $1000 bankroll and a 2% unit)

With 7/5 (and 3 points bought) we will lose 44.95 units. We will drop to $101 bankroll. We will need to win 18 straight B bets (7 units of profit in each) to get to $1000+ again.

With 3/5 system, we will only need 12 B straight bets to get $1000+ again.

So, if 7/5 system gives us 200 units/season and 3/5 gives us 175 units/season (random value, I have no idea of the correct one), the 3/5 method is better because it makes us recover faster from loses?

2% on a 7/5 2 games chase?????

[thelimit0310]

Quick update, recap of yesterday and today's update.

JM Feb 6

V3 Houston B WIN
V3 OKC B WIN
V2 SAS A WIN

JM Feb 7

No Plays *Dallas will have their B bet tomorrow*

[Maxi_EV]

the 7/5 isnt about buying points so your talking about something that doesnt exist

Why would a 7/5 approach not be suitable for buying points?
I ran the numbers and it is a killer.

[Maxi_EV]

the 7/5 isnt about buying points so your talking about something that doesnt exist

I'll make it exist.

[Maxi_EV]

I did my calculations assuming a 3pts buy @ -185

1 loss = -46 units

My numbers are accurate.

Oops

I calculated all wins @ 7 units. Forgot those @ 5.

I'll be back!

[thelimit0310]

I did my calculations assuming a 3pts buy @ -185

1 loss = -46 units

My numbers are accurate.

You do not know the true numbers however. You can not say from that document how many series would have lost without the 3 points. You do not know how many series may have won on B officially, but went to C without 3 points. Not to mention you don't know the amount of B plays that would have been no plays based on the most efficient way-to-play criteria, either. Those results you have are off. Trust me, I'm the guy with 9 years of backtested data.

[Maxi_EV]

Oops

I calculated all wins @ 7 units. Forgot those @ 5.

I'll be back!

So,

883.15 units
Average 176.63 per season

[Maxi_EV]

You do not know the true numbers however. You can not say from that document how many series would have lost without the 3 points. You do not know how many series may have won on B officially, but went to C without 3 points. Not to mention you don't know the amount of B plays that would have been no plays based on the most efficient way-to-play criteria, either. Those results you have are off. Trust me, I'm the guy with 9 years of backtested data.

I am not calculating the whole portrait like you do. I am not comparing buying vs not buying.

I JUST APPLIED 7-5 BC ON THE RESULTS KEV PROVIDED. THEY ARE ALL WITH BUYING 3PTS.

That's it

[Maxi_EV]

So recap
All I'm saying is that IF KEV NUMBERS ARE CORRECT AND ARE ALL BASED ON BUYING 3PTS, THEN BC-7/5 WOULD HAVE GENERATE A TOTAL OF 883 UNITS WITH BUYING 3 PTS.