UFC Best Bets Today: Top Picks for UFC Vegas 64
The women’s strawweight division is set to be highlighted on Saturday night when top-10 115-pounder Marina Rodriguez squares off with Amanda Lemos in the main event of UFC Vegas 64. Read on for our UFC Vegas 64 best bets.
The winner of Rodriguez-Lemos will immediately pencil themselves into a potential title shot. Riding a four-fight winning streak, Rodriguez last lost in 2020, dropping a contentious split decision to current strawweight overlord Carla Esparza. She’d love nothing more than to get another crack at “The Cookie Monster,” especially if there’s a championship at stake.
Lemos has tasted victory in six of her last seven trips to the Octagon, submitting Michelle Waterson-Gomez via guillotine choke during her last bout. Although a win doesn’t necessarily guarantee her a title bout, a demonstrative, violent finish would definitely put her on the shortlist.
Also on the card: A welterweight scrap between division stalwart Neil Magny and Daniel Rodriguez, and a flyweight showdown pitting Miranda Maverick against Shanna Young.
Here are our best bets for Saturday’s UFC Vegas 64 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our picks and predictions for Rodriguez vs. Lemos.
UFC Vegas 64 Card and Odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Amanda Lemos (+185) vs. Marina Rodriguez (-215)
- Neil Magny (-120) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+100)
- Josh Parisian (+110) vs. Chase Sherman (-130)
- Nate Maness (+185) vs. Tagir Ulanbekov (-215)
- Grant Dawson (-215) vs. Mark Madsen (+185)
- Darrick Minner (+170) vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (-200)
- Miranda Maverick (-645) vs. Shanna Young (+480)
- Mario Bautista (-300) vs. Benito Lopez (+250)
- Jinh Yu Frey (+120) vs. Polyana Viana (-140)
- Ramona Pascual (+110) vs. Tamires Vidal (-130)
- Johnny Munoz Jr (-240) vs. Liudvik Sholinian (+200)
- Carlos Candelario (+215) vs. Jake Hadley (-255)
UFC Vegas 64 Best Bets
- Moneyline: Munoz Jr. (-240 via Caesars) ★★★★
- Upset: Daniel Rodriguez (+100 DraftKings Sportsbook)★★★
- Winning Method: Maverick to win by submission (+140 via FanDuel Sportsbook)) ★★★★
- Prop bet: Marina Rodriguez to win By decision (+165 via DraftKings) ★★★★
- Parlay: Maverick to win by submission (+140) + Rodriguez to win by decision (+160) + Munoz (-265) (via FanDuel) ★★★
Top Picks for UFC Vegas 64
Moneyline: Munoz Jr. (-240)
Sholinian won’t be able to survive once this bout eventually hits the floor. Munoz only averages 2.53 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he’ll need just a couple of kicks at the can to completely dominate during a grappling match.
With seven submissions over 11 career victories, Munoz will eventually drag Sholinian into his world and snake in a fight-ending choke.
Upset: Daniel Rodriguez (+100)
Magny is the textbook definition of a gatekeeper. He's earned some high-profile wins, but Magny has never been able to pick up enough steam to snatch a title opportunity.
Rodriguez, on the other hand, is looking to burst into the division’s upper echelon with a victory over a quality, seasoned opponent like Magny. Rodriguez hits harder, lands at a higher rate, and is a slightly more accurate striker. As long as his gas tank holds up and he avoids a lengthy clinch battle, this is a very winnable fight for “D-Rod.”
Rodriguez will land the more demonstrative and damaging strikes, and that’ll sway the judges to score the fight in his favor.
Winning method: Maverick to win by submission (+140)
Young and Maverick already tangled at Invicta FC back in 2019, and Maverick polished Young off with a rear-naked choke. I don’t see this one going any differently. Young's takedown defense is only successful 60% of the time, and Maverick will be trying tirelessly to drag this bout to the floor.
“Fear The” will be hunting for submissions once she inevitably gets Young to the mat, and she'll eventually snatch on. If you’re looking to hedge your bets a little and think there’s a chance Maverick disregards the submission in favor of some ground-and-pound, you can back KO/TKO/DQ/submission at -110 through Bet365.
Prop bet: Marina Rodriguez to win By decision (+165)
Rodriguez will emerge with her hand raised as long as she avoids getting into an extended grappling match with Lemos. She's the busier striker, landing 5.03 significant strikes per minute, and Rodriguez also absorbs less damage (3.07 to Lemos’ 4.40).
Lemos is definitely hittable, and I expect Rodriguez to outwork “Amandinha” through sheer volume over 25 minutes to secure the win. Four of Rodriguez’s last five bouts have gone to the judge’s scorecards, and nine of her 16 victories have gone the distance. Anticipate more of the same during the main event on Saturday night.
Parlay: Maverick to win by submission (+140) + Rodriguez to win by decision (+160) + Munoz (-265) = +759
Where to Bet on UFC Fight Night
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UFC Fight Night best bets made on 11/4/2022 at 1:51 p.m. ET.