Edwards vs. Muhammad Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: UFC 304
After three long years, Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad will finally settle the score.
The pair of welterweights will close out UFC 304 tonight at Manchester Co-op Live with Edwards’ welterweight strap on the line, hence our Edwards vs. Muhammad prediction for the promotion’s latest visit to the UK.
These two first met back in 2021 as fellow contenders, with an accidental eye poke from Edwards ending the matchup prematurely and resulting in a no contest. Edwards won the divisional crown two fights later with a shocking KO of Kamaru Usman and has since defended it with lopsided verdicts over Usman and Colby Covington at UFC 286 and 296, respectively.
As for Muhammad, the challenger ends a layoff of over 14 months with his first shot at UFC gold, having last bested Gilbert Burns by unanimous decision at UFC 288 in May of last year. The verdict extended Muhammad’s win streak to a gaudy nine, and he now heads across the pond with a solid promotional record of 14-3.
Edwards vs. Muhammad prediction & best bet
(UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best UFC betting sites)
- Fight prediction: Edwards moneyline (-250 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Edwards by decision (+120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Edwards vs. Muhammad fight analysis
Edwards is tasked with a workmanlike challenger in Muhammad, who boasts solid wrestling and cardio and has made great efforts to improve his striking over his eight-year UFC stint.
While Muhammad owns the edge in significant strikes landed per minute (4.55 to 2.75), anyone familiar with these two welterweights will know the advantage on the feet lies with Edwards. Indeed, the champion knows how to mix up his targets, can strike his way into takedowns – even against decorated collegiate wrestlers like Covington – and likes to throw sneaky, well-timed elbows from the clinch.
He may not always push his advantages when he should, but Edwards can give Muhammad a hard time anywhere, and I expect him to land the more quality, damaging shots over tonight's headliner. The ever-methodical champion should also keep Muhammad guessing by peppering in a few takedowns and chew the clock with some of his clever clinch work.
Should Muhammad pursue the takedown, as he’s been wont to do in the past, look for Edwards’ 70% takedown defense to hold up and for the champion to slow the fight down against the fence. All this to say, it may not be action-packed, but the weekend’s marquee matchup should see Edwards retain his crown with another methodical showing of equal parts striking and wrestling.
Prediction: Edwards moneyline (-250 via DraftKings) | Implied probability: 71.4%
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Edwards vs. Muhammad best bet
Never one to fight with a sense of urgency, Edwards will likely require the full 25 to get his hand raised.
Over his 12-fight win streak, the Birmingham native has gone the distance nine times with five requiring five rounds. Muhammad’s winning run hasn’t been dissimilar, having stopped just two of his nine straight conquests. Furthermore, these two boast nearly 30 decision victories between them and match up nicely in most areas, most notably the grappling department.
Much as Edwards would love to regale us with a stunning KO on home soil, the durable grinder that is Muhammad will turn their rematch into a grueling war of attrition – one I see the former winning, albeit with the judges’ participation.
Unlike our moneyline pick, FanDuel has DraftKings and BetMGM beat on winning method lines, offering a 13th career win for Edwards on points at +120 compared to +100 odds from our other best sportsbooks.
Best bet: Edwards by decision (+120 via FanDuel) | Implied probability: 45.5%
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Edwards vs. Muhammad odds
(Odds via DraftKings as of Friday)
| Edwards | Method of victory | Muhammad |
|---|---|---|
| -250 | Win outright | +205 |
| +300 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +1000 |
| +100 | Win by unanimous decision | +350 |
| +5000 | Draw | +5000 |
Edwards vs. Muhammad tale of the tape
| Edwards | Muhammad | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 36 |
| 6'2" | Height | 5'11" |
| 170 | Weight | 169 |
| 74" | Reach | 72" |
| 22-3 | Record | 23-3 |
Edwards vs. Muhammad fight info
- When: Saturday, July 27 at 10 p.m. ET (main card)
- Where: Co-op Live (Manchester, England)
- How to watch: PPV, ESPN+
- Favorite: Edwards (-250 via DraftKings)
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