🩸 UFC 328 Best Bets for Newark: Chimaev by Decision, Van Moneyline & More

Saturday's UFC 328 card out of the Prudential Center in Newark features two title fights, a heavyweight showcase, and a lightweight scrap between two guys who'd rather bleed than clinch. These are my UFC 328 best bets and predictions for the full main card, headlined by Khamzat Chimaev defending his middleweight belt against former champion Sean Strickland.

Chimaev is a massive -590 favorite for good reason, but I'm not laying that kind of juice on a straight moneyline. I'm going after props and plus-money plays here. My top pick is Chimaev by decision at +320, and I'm also grabbing value on Joshua Van, Alexander Volkov, and a finish play in the main card opener. Dive into my UFC 328 odds for analysis surrounding every fight on the card.

💰 UFC 328 best bets

See all of our UFC picks for this weekend's fights; pick confidence based a 1-to-5-star scale.

Total wagered: 4.5 units | Max profit: 6.68 units

🚀 My best UFC 328 pick: Chimaev by decision (+320) vs. Strickland

This is a hard fight to bet straight up. Chimaev at -590 is unplayable, and Strickland at +390 requires you to believe the underdog can pull another stunner.

I'd rather chase value on the method of victory. Chimaev is a hesitant, movement-heavy striker who uses his footwork to set up wrestling entries. He'll get Strickland to the mat, but Strickland is durable enough and slick enough defensively to survive five rounds. At middleweight, Strickland has only been stopped once, by Alex Pereira's left hook at UFC 276. Chimaev doesn't carry that kind of one-punch power standing up. I see a grinding, Chimaev-controlled decision here.

For more analysis, dive into my Chimaev vs. Strickland predictions.

🔥 More UFC 328 predictions

Check out our best UFC betting sites for the latest odds for this weekend's fights.

Van to win (+145) vs. Taira

Joshua Van is a sitting UFC flyweight champion on a six-fight win streak, and he's getting plus money. That alone should catch your attention. Van has crazy power in his hands, and he's never out of a fight because he pressures at all times. He's susceptible to getting countered, sure, but I'm not sure that's Taira's game. We saw Taira fight Brandon Royval, and Royval was able to outwork him and fend off the wrestling. Van could take a similar approach but turn up the heat at certain points and win on damage.

At +145 via bet365, the implied probability is just 40.8%, which feels low for a defending champion who hasn't lost since 2023. A $10 bet returns $14.50 in profit. I'm loading up 1.5 units here because the line feels soft.

Volkov by decision (+130) vs. Cortes-Acosta

Alexander Volkov's last three fights have all gone to decision. He picked up wins over Sergei Pavlovich and Jailton Almeida with a controversial split-decision loss to Ciryl Gane sandwiched between them. This might be the best stretch of complete MMA in Volkov's career. He's a guy who can never quite crack the top three, but he's been in that conversation for years on a steady mix of boxing, wrestling, and sheer durability. At 6-foot-7 with an 81-inch reach, it's just hard to get inside on him and do any real damage.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta has power, but he's not a true mixed martial artist at this level. Volkov will outmaneuver him on experience alone. At +130 via bet365, the implied probability is 43.5%, and a $10 bet returns $13 in profit. I'm comfortable putting 1.5 units on Volkov grinding this out over three rounds.

Green vs. Stephens inside the distance (-105)

It's hard for me to even evaluate Jeremy Stephens at this point. He's been a ghost in the UFC over the last couple of years and only recently made his return. This is solid matchmaking, but both guys have durability concerns. Stephens' chin is a question mark, and Bobby Green has never been a guy who absorbs punishment well over three rounds. These two know why they're on the main card. They're going to push the pace and try to put on a show.

I'm surprised the inside-the-distance line is sitting at -105 via DraftKings. That's basically a coin flip, and I think the finish probability is higher than the market suggests. The implied probability is 51.2%, and a $10 bet returns $9.52 in profit. One unit on this as a low-confidence value grab.

📝 UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland fight card

• Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland, Middleweight (title)
• Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira, Flyweight (title)
• Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta, Heavyweight
• Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley, Welterweight
• Bobby Green vs. Jeremy Stephens, Lightweight
• Ateba Gautier vs. Ozzy Diaz, Middleweight
• Joel Alvarez vs. Yaroslav Amosov, Welterweight
• Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki, Lightweight
• Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon, Lightweight
• Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio, Middleweight
• Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis, Featherweight
• Baisangur Susurkaev vs. Djorden Santos, Middleweight
• Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa, Flyweight

💡 How I'm betting UFC 328

I'm leaning more on props and method-of-victory bets than straight moneylines on this card. When the favorites are this heavily juiced, you have to pick your spots and chase outcomes rather than laying -500 or worse on a winner.

The Chimaev decision bet comes directly from watching how he fought du Plessis. Twelve takedowns, 21 minutes of control time, and no urgency to finish whatsoever. He's comfortable winning ugly. That told me to skip the moneyline and bet the method. I watch a lot of UFC film, and the fighters on this main card are all modern guys I've followed closely - minus Jeremy Stephens, of course. That's what lets me zero in on specific props rather than just picking sides

I'm also reeling in my unit sizes compared to a typical UFC pay-per-view. The card doesn't scream "load up," but if you pick your spots wisely, there's money to be made. I’ve got 4.5 units spread across four bets, with a potential return of 6.68 units if they all hit. This isn’t a card to get aggressive on, but it’s not one to sit out either.

📺 How to watch UFC 328

• Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026
• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET (main card)
• Location: Prudential Center (Newark, N.J.)
• TV: Paramount+