⚽ World Cup Predictions: Best Bets & Prop Picks for Thursday, June 11

The World Cup (finally) gets underway today, and its time to shift from futures bets to game-day action. My World Cup predictions for Thursday break down the two Group A games that get us off the mark: Mexico vs. South Africa and South Korea vs. Czechia. 

With Mexico a heavy moneyline favorite, what props can we attack to make find top value in the opener? Who is our best goal-scorer bet today? 

Read below to have yourself ready when the day's action gets started at 3 p.m. ET.

⚽ World Cup predictions today: June 11

See all of our experts' World Cup picks based on the latest World Cup odds and favorites 

Total wagered: 3.25 units | Max profit: 3.67 units

💰 Best World Cup prediction today

Mexico to win vs. South Africa & BTTS: No (+100)

Mexico winning the opener in Mexico feels like it's almost a given at this point (dangerous words, I know). El Tri boasts high-level talent throughout, and Aguerro's squad will have no problem controlling territory and setting the tempo today.

But Mexico's secret weapon is simply the altitude of Estadio Azteca. The air is quite thin at 2,200 meters, and players who aren't acclimated tend to wane. South Africa will fade as the game goes on. The visitors will need to deploy a low block to hang in this game, and their chances to score will be incredibly limited.

Kickoff time: 3 p.m. ET
Mexico vs. South Africa odds: Mexico (-235) | Draw (+340) | South Africa (+750)
How to watch: FOX / Telemundo / Peacock

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South Korea vs. Czechia BTTS: Yes (-120)

The next three plays all work pretty hand-in-hand, so I'll keep each one pretty brief.

Why will both teams score? Well, Czechia is coming in on an absolute tear, with 15 goals potted across their last five games, including a pair against a decent Denmark team that punched their ticket. They're also awesome at burying corners and boast enough size to capitalize on corners and free kicks in range.

I'll break down a play on Korea Over 1.5 goals in a couple of bets below, but suffice to say I like them to hold up their end of the BTTS: Yes.

However, we're near the cliff here for value - I probably won't play this any longer than -125.

South Korea vs. Czechia Over 2.5 goals (+126)

I've already gone over why I think Czechia will find their way onto the scoresheet, so let's look at how this game ends up Over 2.5.

Aside from entering on a tear offensively, Czechia's defense is...well, not great. They've conceded in four straight, and five of six, and in three of those games have conceded multiples. And we're not talking about word beaters or anything, they gave up goals to Kosovo and Guatemala in their tune-up games, and the Faroe Islands, Northern Ireland, and Denmark (the one good team of the bunch) all scored two.

Korea will do it's part to reach this total, which I'm going to break down next. I like this at +115 or better.

South Korea Over 1.5 goals (+162)

Here's where it all comes together.

South Korea relies heavily on the press, using fast transitions to generate its offense. In their 3-4-3 shape, Czechia's wing-backs often press forward to deliver crosses. But that type of play can be punished by the counterattack of a squad like South Korea. PSG's Lee Kang-in's distribution will exploit those gaps, and Son can create something from nothing - he'll get his chances tonight.

All this doesn't even touch on the altitude. It's not just Mexico City that's well above sea level; Estadio Akron in Guadalajara is a whopping 1,566 meters, and that's where Korea has been training. Czechia is coming from Mansfield, Texas, where the altitude is about 180m.

That extra time in the thin air will benefit Korea's fitness and could result in a waning Czechia side as the game goes on, leaving an already leaky defense open to being exploited. I'm happy with this from +150.

Kickoff time: 10 p.m. ET
South Korea vs. Czechia odds: South Korea (+170) | Draw (+210) | Czechia (+185)
How to watch: FS1 / Telemundo / Peacock

Son Heung-min anytime goalscorer (+200)

Son is the most dangerous outlet for the Korean side that I think can score two tonight, so he's my target as a goalscorer. Kang-in's passing and vision create opportunities for Son to exploit, and he's capable of turning nothing into something real fast. He also has the added boost of being Korea's penalty-taker, should that situation arise.

Czechia's fullbacks won't be able to handle his quickness as he drifts from the left wing to a striker position, especially if they wane as the game plays on.

And the narrative comes into play: he sits at 56 goals for the South Korean team, just two off the all-time record. He'll be looking to set a new mark during the tournament. 

Kickoff time: 10 p.m. ET
South Korea vs. Czechia odds: South Korea (+170) | Draw (+210) | Czechia (+185)
How to watch: FS1 / Telemundo / Peacock