⚽ United States vs. Australia Prediction: Best World Cup Picks at Kalshi (June 19)
The two leaders of Group D meet on Friday, and my United States vs. Australia prediction highlights why the United States is well-positioned to pick up its second win of the World Cup and advance to the knockout stage. 62% of traders are backing the United States to win, and my World Cup predictions don't focus on whether the Stars and Stripes will win, but rather by how many goals they will win by.
The 3 p.m. ET match will be played at Lumen Field in Seattle. It will air on FOX and Telemundo and stream on FOX One.
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⚽ United States vs. Australia predictions: Pick to win & player prop picks
See all of our experts' soccer picks for World Cup 2026.
| 💰 Best picks | 📊 Yes/no price | ⚖️ Volume (units) |
|---|---|---|
| USA -1.5 | 35 cents | 2u -> 3.71u |
| USA Over 1.5 goals | 55 cents | 3u -> 2.45u |
| Folarin Balogun anytime goalscorer | 36 cents | 1u -> 1.78u |
📈 Who will win United States vs. Australia?
Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.
The United States dominated possession against Paraguay, holding the ball for 35% of the game. I expect the same situation to unfold on Friday, as Australia maintained possession for just 28% of their match against Turkiye.
The key to victory for the United States will be preventing counterattacks from Australia. If you look at the momentum track for Australia's first match, it's clear that it was Turkiye's game to lose. But Turkiye couldn't capitalize on their opportunities, and Australia did. In the United States' first match, the offense was excellent, and aside from one slip, the defense was as well.
Score prediction: USA 3 Australia 1
💵 My best pick: Yes USA Over 1.5 goals (55 cents)
If there were any concerns about the United States wasting opportunities, those worries were put to bed after the Stars and Stripes netted four of their six shots on target.
While Folarin Balogun and Giovanni Reyna were the goalscorers in the first match, Malik Tillman also put two shots on target, while Timothy Weah and Ricardo Pepi each attempted shots. Even with Christian Pulisic suffering a calf injury, this USA offense has plenty of firepower to beat an Australian defense that was more lucky than good in their first match.
🦶 Who will score in United States vs. Australia?
Follow all of our expert soccer analysis for World Cup 2026.
Folarin Balogun, F, United States (36%)
Balogun's first World Cup match was electric, as the Monaco striker scored twice. He put another shot on goal and recorded five total shots in the match. He's now scored three goals in his last three games with the United States.
The 36% implies a line of about +178, which is very favorable to Yes traders. Balogun has six goals in his last 11 matches with the United States, and he scored 13 times in 30 appearances with Monaco this season.
Best United States vs. Australia goal-scorer pick: Folarin Balogun (36%)
🥅 Will both teams score in United States vs. Australia?
I don't worry for the United States early in this contest, but I do believe that Australia will find a goal late, just like Paraguay did in the opener. Australia is in a good spot to advance, but goal differential could play a huge role in whether they do or don't. The United States defense broke down once against Paraguay, and I think a desperate Australia, with the talent to counter, will score at least once.
Both teams to score (BTTS) pick: Yes (49 cents)
💡 How to trade on both teams to score (BTTS)
Our soccer expert Jeremy Vernon broke down how to handicap BTTS at the World Cup with a full history and statistical analysis of the popular prop market across more than 7,000 matches.
📺 How to watch United States vs. Australia
- Date: Friday, June 19
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Lumen Field (Seattle)
- TV: FOX, Telemundo, FOX One
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