⚽ Sweden vs. Poland Prediction & Odds: International Betting Preview for March 31
Poland got the better of Sweden four years ago in a playoff final to advance to the World Cup. Is déjà vu on the menu for Tuesday's all-important playoff final from Strawberry Arena in Solna, Stockholm (2:45 p.m. ET, FUBO TV)?
Despite playing on the road as the +280 betting underdog, I'm backing the Eagles to break Swedish hearts for the second time in four years in my Sweden vs. Poland prediction. Poland has been the better team for most of the qualification and is unbeaten in seven matches. I'm also expecting the nation's all-time leading goal scorer to contribute with another invaluable strike.
🔮 Sweden vs. Poland best bets
See all of our experts' soccer picks based on the latest odds from the best sports betting sites.; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Bet | Odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poland to advance | +150 via DraftKings | 1u -> 1.45u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Robert Lewandowski player prop | Anytime goal (+190 via FanDuel) | 0.5u -> .95u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 1.5 units | Max profit: 2.5 units
⚽ Sweden vs. Poland prediction
Don't miss the rest of our soccer picks for every game this season.
Poland to advance (+145)
Sweden advanced to the playoff final thanks to Viktor Gyökeres' hat trick against Ukraine. For Sweden to beat Poland, it will need another heroic performance from the Arsenal striker, especially with Alexander Isak, Emil Krafth, and Dejan Kulusevski sidelined by injury.
Poland, meanwhile, is undefeated in seven matches since head coach Jan Urban took over.
Graham Potter became Sweden's head coach in October. While the results have been decent since his arrival (1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss), Poland is healthier and has been the better team throughout qualification, even before Urban galvanized the collective.
Score prediction: Poland 2, Sweden 1
💡 Will Poland end its winless run in Sweden?
Poland hasn't won in Sweden in 76 years and lost in Solna on its previous three visits (2-0 in 1999, 3-0 in 2003, 3-1 in 2004).
All streaks must end, though, right?
🙌 Best Sweden vs. Poland goal-scorer pick
Search the best soccer player prop odds for any team or player across every market from legal sportsbooks in your area.
Robert Lewandowski, F, Poland (+190)
Lewandowski scored against Sweden in the playoff final four years ago, which sent his country to the 2022 World Cup. He also scored against Albania on Thursday, spearheading Poland's comeback victory to book their place in this playoff final.
While Poland's all-time goal-scoring leader isn't as prolific as he once was, he has 16 goals for Barcelona this season. And he netted in five of eight starts throughout Poland's World Cup qualification campaign.
The legendary 37-year-old is also a big-game player, which bodes well for the biggest of occasions.
💡 World Cup Golden Boot odds
Take a look at the Golden Boot odds at prediction markets, and pick your favorite to win the illustrious award.
📊 Sweden vs. Poland odds
Moneyline (3-way)
- Sweden: +105 ($10 to win $10.50)
- Poland: +270 ($10 to win $27)
- Tie: +240 ($10 to win $24)
Spread
- Sweden: -0.5, -105 ($10 to win $9.52)
- Poland: +0.5, -130 ($10 to win $7.69)
Over/Under total goals
- Over 2.5 goals: +124 ($10 to win $12.40)
- Under 2.5 goals: -152 ($10 to win $6.58)
💵 My betting record for soccer picks
All soccer picks have been tracked since March 1.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-5-0 | +2.3 units ✅ | 17.6% ✅ |
| Player props | 1-2-0 | -1.33 units ❌ | -53% ❌ |
📈 Sweden vs. Poland betting trends
| Sweden | Statistic | Poland |
|---|---|---|
| 1W, 2D, 4L | Season record | 6W, 2D, 1L |
| WDLLL | Last 5 games | WWDWW |
| 3-1 W, Ukraine | Previous result | 2-1 W, Albania |
🌤️ Sweden vs. Poland weather
It will be near freezing at kickoff, with temperatures expected to be 35 degrees. There is no chance of precipitation, with winds gusting to 12 mph.
💡 How I'm betting Sweden vs. Poland
Sweden overcame personnel issues against Ukraine in the semifinal. However, it relied on a heroic performance from Gyökeres, and, because of the ongoing war in Ukraine, the Swedes benefited from the match being played in Spain.
Home advantage will give the Swedes a chance, but Poland is the better, more resilient collective.
With Sweden's injuries and Poland playing at the peak of its power, I have more faith in the visitors. However, I'm staying away from an outright win in 90 minutes, opting instead for the to-advance option.
While that will decrease potential profits, it's the better option in a game that could very well be decided in extra time or penalties.
📺 How to watch Sweden vs. Poland
- Date: Tuesday, March 31
- Kickoff: 2:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Strawberry Arena (Solna, Stockholm)
- TV: FUBO TV
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