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Liverpool forward Mohamed Salah carries the ball during the English FA Cup, 3rd round match between Liverpool and Wolverhampton Wanderers on Jan. 7, 2023 at Anfield stadium in Liverpool, England.
Liverpool forward Mohamed Salah carries the ball during the English FA Cup, 3rd round match between Liverpool and Wolverhampton Wanderers on Jan. 7, 2023 at Anfield stadium in Liverpool, England. Photo by Ben Roberts/ProSportsImages/DPPI via AFP.

Liverpool Manager Jurgen Klopp’s Reds have nothing to lose as they attempt to reduce the three-goal deficit, following their 5-2 defeat at home to the Spanish champions in the first leg. Read on for our top Real Madrid vs. Liverpool pick for the Champions League Round of 16 based on the best Champions League odds.

Liverpool are no strangers to big Champions League comebacks. In 2019 they came from 3-0 down after their semi-final first leg to beat Barcelona 4-0 in the return fixture and advance to the final, which they eventually won in Madrid.

If their task wasn’t daunting enough, Liverpool failed to beat Real Madrid in all of their last seven matches, losing six of those contests. Los Blancos progressed from 26 of their previous 27 European Cup/UEFA Champions League knockout ties when winning the first leg away from home.

Here is our best Real Madrid vs. Liverpool pick (odds via FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Champions League best bets.

Real Madrid vs. Liverpool pick

Over 2.5 (-190 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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We were treated to seven goals in the first leg, and everything about this match screams goals galore. Of the top sides remaining in the competition, Real Madrid have the highest xGA of 9.5. Liverpool’s xG is 14.2, fourth highest of the eight teams playing this week.

Liverpool boast forward Mohamed Salah (8), the competition’s top scorer this season. Real Madrid have striker Karim Benzema, who scored 19 goals in his last 19 appearances in the Champions League knockout stages, while he's also the top scorer against Liverpool in European Cup/Champions League history (6).

Left winger Vinicius Junior scored two Champions League braces against the Reds. The Brazilian also scored the winner against Wednesday’s opponents in last season’s final. His five goals against Liverpool are the most he’s had versus any opponent. 

Out of the clubs that qualified for the last 16 of this season’s tournament, Liverpool have the joint-worst defense, conceding 11 goals. Real Madrid only kept two clean sheets in seven Champions League matches this season. Of the teams remaining in the competition at the start of this week, only four scored more than Liverpool (19), including Real Madrid (20).

The Reds only kept one clean sheet on the road during the current campaign. Since the World Cup break, Real Madrid scored 13 goals in six home matches. This is an average of 2.2 goals per game at the Santiago Bernabeu in 2023.

Real Madrid vs. Liverpool best odds

FanDuel (-190)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
Over 2.5Over 2.5Over 2.5Over 2.5Over 2.5
-205-190-225-200-200

Everything in this match works in our favor. We’ve got two defenses that can be exposed, as proven in the first leg, and they are two teams that can score. Liverpool need multiple goals to survive, so they’re going to attack.

The books know this, which is why their odds are so low for this play. If the price was much lower than the -190 odds FanDuel gives I’d look at the 3.5-goal total that most books offer on their main markets. The stats point to goals in this match, and I’m confidently placing four stars on this play. 

Real Madrid vs. Liverpool odds analysis

If you’re confident in four or more goals being scored between these two teams, the best price for the Over 3.5 is +144 via FanDuel. Both teams are evenly priced. Real Madrid are the home favorites with the best price at +130 via Caesars. Liverpool are +190 at DraftKings and FanDuel SU.

There’s no value in betting Real Madrid to advance, but if you think Liverpool can make up the three goals and find a way through, they’re +2000 via Caesars. PointsBet has Benzema at +100 anytime scorer, Salah is +190 to score in this match and Vinicius Junior is valued at +240. 

Real Madrid vs. Liverpool game info

  • Date: Wednesday, March 15, 4 p.m. ET
  • TV: Fubo, Paramount+
  • Location: Santiago Barnabeu, Madrid
  • Weather: 59 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 4-mph winds

Real Madrid-Liverpool pick made 3/14/2023 at 1:38 p.m. ET.

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