Champions League Odds & Best Bets This Week for the Round of 16 Second Leg
After bursting out of the traps in the first leg, Liverpool squandered a 2-0 lead at Anfield and lost 5-2 to reigning European champions, Real Madrid. The Reds have come back from big deficits before, will there be magic in Madrid? Read on for our Champions League picks and predictions for the Round of 16 based on the best soccer odds.
Manchester City’s tie with RB Leipzig is finely poised at 1-1. Pep Guardiola will be hoping his side will maximize their home advantage and book their place in the quarter-finals. Since 2018, visiting sides have avoided defeat just once at the Etihad Stadium in the knockout rounds of the competition.
Napoli host Eintracht Frankfurt with a 2-0 advantage. The Italian side are romping Serie A with an 18-point lead at the top of the table, and have conceded 16 league goals all season. Will Wednesday’s second leg be a formality for Luciano Spalletti’s side?
Here are our best Champions League bets from the round of 16 second leg (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM); pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our soccer picks.
Champions League schedule and odds this week
(odds via FanDuel)
- Manchester City (-270) vs. RB Leipzig (+650)
- Porto (+160) vs. Inter (+170)
- Napoli (-220) vs. Frankfurt (+550)
- Real Madrid (+130) vs. Liverpool (+180)
Champions League best bets
- Moneyline: Inter (+170 via BetMGM and FanDuel) vs. Porto ⭐⭐⭐
- Spread: Napoli (-1.5) vs. Frankfurt (+140 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Total: Real Madrid vs. Liverpool Over 2.5 goals (-172 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Prop: Tottenham to advance vs. Milan (+140 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Check out our best Champions League odds.
Top Champions League picks
Moneyline: Inter (+170 via BetMGM, FanDuel) vs. Porto ⭐⭐⭐
Inter lost their most-recent match, on the road to Spezia in Serie A on Friday. However that shouldn’t concern their fans heading to Portugal on Tuesday because the Italian giants have progressed from four of their five two-legged Champions League knockout ties when winning the first leg.
Ominously for Porto, they’ve been eliminated from six of their seven two-legged UEFA Champions League knockout ties when losing the first leg. Porto’s only home defeat in the competition this season was 4-0 against Club Brugge. Inter have lost once on the road in this season’s Champions League, which was 2-0 to Bayern Munich. Bayern have won all eight of their European matches during this campaign. Inter also travelled to Barcelona and drew 3-3 at the Camp Nou. So, they’re pretty good on their travels.
Porto have lost four of their last six home matches in the knockout stages of the competition, conceding 13 goals in those defeats. Meanwhile, after failing to win any of their first 10 away matches in the knockout stages of the tournament, Inter have since won four of their last seven (L3), with all four victories coming in second legs. With that form, I’m taking the Italian side to win on the road on Tuesday. They’ve also got striker Romelu Lukaku, who’s scored eight goals in 12 Champions League appearances for the club.
Inter are slight underdogs with all our main books. Caesars have the shortest odds at +160. The best value is with BetMGM and FanDuel, who price the Italians at +170.
Spread: Napoli (-1.5) vs. Eintracht Frankfurt (+140 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Frankfurt have had a great run in Europe, including their Europa League title win last season. However, they’re currently sixth in Bundesliga, five points adrift of Champions League qualification, and they face an uphill challenge against the Serie A leaders on Wednesday.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia brought the Scudetto even closer for Napoli with his superb winner in the 2-0 victory over Atalanta on Saturday. They’re 18 points clear at the top of Serie A, which affords them the luxury of concentrating their efforts on the Champions League. This tie could be too big a challenge for Frankfurt.
Napoli are unbeaten in their last 11 Champions League home games (eight wins, three draws), winning all three so far this season. They've scored at least three goals in each victory this term. What makes this play even more appealing is that Napoli have scored 22 goals in the UEFA Champions League this season. The Italian leaders have conceded just 16 goals in Serie A all season. In the first leg, Frankfurt had their fewest number of shots (5), while also facing their highest number of shots (18) in any of their seven Champions League games. The gulf in class is obvious.
The books know there’s a mountain to climb for the German club, which is why the spread is set as high as 1.5 goals. Napoli has the highest xG (18.9) of any team in the last 16 of the competition. Eintracht Frankfurt have the lowest (6.9).
Total: Real Madrid vs. Liverpool Over 2.5 goals (-172 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Liverpool have nothing to lose in this match, so they’re going to go for it. In Mohamed Salah they’ve got the competition’s leading goal scorer (eight) this season, and only four teams, including Real Madrid (20), have scored more goals than them (19) during the current campaign.
The Reds are no strangers to big comebacks, most notably the Heroes of Istanbul, when they came back from 3-0 down in the Champions League final to beat Milan on penalties, and their knockout tie with Barcelona in 2019. Liverpool became one of four sides to progress from a Champions League tie having lost the first leg by three or more goals, when they won the second leg of that semi-final 4-0.
Of the top sides remaining in the competition, Real Madrid have the highest xGA of 9.5. Liverpool’s xG is 14.2, which is the fourth highest of the eight teams playing this week. As well as featuring this season’s top scorer, this match sees forward Karim Benzema on the opposite side. Benzema has scored 19 goals in his last 19 appearances in the Champions League knockout stages, while he's also the top scorer against Liverpool in European Cup/Champions League history (6).
This match clearly has the potential to rain goals, just like the first leg, especially as Liverpool will leave themselves exposed at the back as they attack Real’s defense. On the main markets, most of our main books have set the total at 3.5 goals, which shows they expect goals in this one. FanDuel has the highest odds for the Over at -172, with the total set 2.5 goals. BetMGM has the odds as low as -200.
Prop: Manchester City vs RB Leipzig, both teams to score Man City win (+200 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
City’s xGA is 4.1, which is the best among the remaining teams in the competition. However, Leipzig are no pushovers, as they showed in the first leg, with an xG of 11.1.
Manchester City are unbeaten across their last 23 home matches in this competition, winning 21. They’ve also won each of their last nine Champions League home matches against German clubs. Leipzig will be a threat, they’re unbeaten in their last five matches in this season’s competition, including four wins, which is they’re best-ever run.
City’s dominance will see them progress, but I like Leipzig to score because of the threat their forward, Christopher Nkunku, poses. He’s scored 10 goals in his last 12 Champions League starts, including a hat-trick against Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium in 2021. Combine his excellent strike rate with Leipzig’s impressive form and they will be a test for the Cityzens’ backline.
Manchester City’s Erling Haaland has scored 17 goals in 11 home matches in the competition. The Norwegian has scored a goal every 49 minutes on average in these matches, therefore we might be treated to a show as these two strikers battle it out on Tuesday.
FanDuel has this play at +175. PointsBet has odds as high as +190, but the best value is with Caesars at +200.
Champions League best bets made 3/13/2023 at 7 a.m. ET.
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