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Premier League Best Bets
Premier League Best Bets

The Premier League returns Friday, and three-time defending champions Manchester City begin the campaign away to newly promoted Burnley. Can City defend the throne again, or will another challenger begin a potential title run? Check out our Premier League best bets for Matchday 1 based on the best Premier League odds.

The 2022-23 Premier League season ended the same way in which the previous two did, with Manchester City hoisting the trophy. Thanks to Erling Haaland's record-breaking 36 league goals, City clawed back from a slow start and broke the hearts of Arsenal supporters across the globe.

The Gunners will look for redemption this season after that collapse, and they begin their campaign with a tasty home matchup against Nottingham Forest.

Meanwhile, two of the league's biggest clubs do battle right out of the gates, as Liverpool travel to London to take on a new-look Chelsea squad.

Additionally, Premier League title odds contenders Newcastle and Manchester United also begin the season with favorable home matches against Aston Villa and Wolves, respectively.

Will these high-profile clubs pick up their first three points of the season, or will they stumble out of the gates?

Here are our Premier League best bets for Matchday 1 (odds via our best soccer betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Premier League schedule and odds for Matchday 1

(odds via DraftKings)

  • Burnley (+850) vs. Manchester City (-330)
  • Arsenal (-525) vs. Nottingham Forest (+1300)
  • Bournemouth (+170) vs. West Ham (+160)
  • Brighton (-310) vs. Luton Town (+800)
  • Everton (+120) vs. Fulham (+230)
  • Sheffield United (+210) vs. Crystal Palace (+145)
  • Newcastle (-130) vs. Aston Villa (+350)
  • Brentford (+175) vs. Spurs (+150)
  • Chelsea (+190) vs. Liverpool (+135)
  • Manchester United (-310) vs. Wolves (+750)

  Check out our top soccer picks.  

Premier League best bets for Matchday 1

  • Player Prop: Trent Alexander-Arnold to have two-plus shots vs. Chelsea (+200 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Erling Haaland anytime goal (-138 via bet365) vs. Burnley ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Martin Odegaard to score or assist (-135 via FanDuel) vs. Nottingham Forest
  • Moneyline: Newcastle (-134 via bet365) vs. Aston Villa ⭐⭐⭐

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Top Premier League prop picks

Player prop: Trent Alexander-Arnold to have two-plus shots vs. Chelsea (+200 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

Liverpool right-back Trent Alexander-Arnold frequently shifted into a more midfield role toward the end of the 2022-23 season, and it resulted in two things: Liverpool won a ton of games, and Trent took way more shots than usual. 

Trent registered 14 shots over his last seven Premier League matches, going Over this total in four of those contests. 

Liverpool improved their midfield during the summer, but those additions will still need to find their footing with the club in these opening weeks. That gives Trent the perfect opportunity to continue to roam into a midfield role and fire shots toward the net. 

Additionally, the right-back regularly takes free-kicks for Liverpool, giving him more chances to shoot. 

This is our long shot of the week, as the two stars indicate. However, it's still presenting solid value when compared to what other similar players are trading at in this market.

Player prop: Martin Odegaard to score or assist vs. Nottingham Forest (-135 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Odeegard progressively became more involved in Arsenal's attack as the 2022-23 season waged on, finishing with 15 goals and nine assists after managing just seven goals and four assists the year prior. In what's a delicious opening fixture for Arsenal, I expect Odegaard to start his campaign on a high note.

The Norwegian scored or assisted in 17 of his 37 Premier League matches last year, though he did so in half of his games against bottom-five clubs. Nottingham Forest finished 16th last season, and Odegaard scored against them as part of a 5-0 thrashing on Matchday 14.

FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting apps that offers this combined goal or assist prop, so we'll head there for what is a very enticing price. Unfortunately, the market isn't available on the Ontario version of FanDuel.

Player prop: Erling Haaland anytime goal vs. Burnley (-138 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Haaland anytime goal-225-150-227-192-138

How could we not bet on the Premier League's single-season goal king in the first match of the new season?

Initially, I was on Haaland to score the first goal of Burnley vs. Manchester City, which would have been both poetic and profitable. However, bet365's price for a Haaland anytime goal is impossible to pass up, so we turn our attention there.

Newly promoted Burnley had a strong defensive record in the Championship last season en route to comfortably finishing atop the table. However, as we see year after year, the difference in quality of play between the Championship and Premier League is massive, and not even a reinvigorated Turf Moor crowd can stop the goal-scoring juggernaut that is Haaland.

As you can see, DraftKings' and BetMGM's odds for a Haaland goal are positively gross (but probably entirely fair). The only other number I'd play of the bunch is FanDuel's -150.

Top Premier League game picks

Moneyline: Newcastle ML vs. Aston Villa (-134 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Newcastle ML-135-140-137-135-134

We're betting on a Newcastle victory mostly because we're seemingly getting a bit of a discount because it's the first match of the new season. The Magpies were utterly dominant at home last season, finishing with the second-best expected goal differential and the fifth-most points per home match.

Meanwhile, Aston Villa have made some improvements throughout the summer and finished the 2022-23 campaign strong, but they were relatively fortunate away from home. They managed the ninth-most points per away match despite an underwhelming minus-7.9 expected goal differential in those games, which represented the eighth-worst mark in the league.

We're getting a slightly better price by placing this wager at bet365, though the odds available at DraftKings and Caesars are shorter by only one point. Among our best sports betting sites, FanDuel has the worst price.

Premier League Matchday 1 best bets made 8/10/2023 at 1 p.m. ET.

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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

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