New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo Prediction: Today's MLS Best Bets & Picks (Aug. 8)
My New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo prediction breaks down the only MLS game on the slate. It's a clash between one of the top teams from the Western Conference and the Eastern Conference, and it's set to get underway from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., at 4:30 p.m. ET.
The three-way moneyline odds show a tight affair, with New England at +135, Houston at +187, and the draw at +260. You can catch all the action on Apple TV.
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⚽ New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo predictions: Pick to win & player prop bets
See all of our experts' soccer picks.
| 💰 Best bets | 📊 Best odds | ⚖️ Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Houston +0.0, +0.5 asian handicap | -129 via bet365 | 0.75u -> 0.58u |
| Peyton Miller 1+ shots on target | -188 via bet365 | 0.75u -> 0.40u |
| Peyton Miller 3+ shots | -138 via bet365 | 0.5u -> 0.36u |
⚽ Who will win New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo?
These two squads records look very similar, and the Revolution have the benefit of playing at home, but I think Houston's underlying profile is slightly better.
The Dynamo don't bring a lot to the table offensively - and still they're probably bringing a little more than the Revolution - but Houston's defensive edge is significant enough to hold this one close. Neither of these teams plays a high-press game that generates a lot of turnovers, and Houston has a meaningful advantage in touches allowed in their box.
Houston takes a two-game shutout run into tonight's game, and while I think that will end, I suspect Houston will net one of its own.
Score prediction: Houston 1, New England 1
💵 My best bet: Peyton Miller 1+ shots on target (-188)
While I like Houston to be the better of the two teams via its defense, Miller's consistent attacking role should be able to hit this very attainable number.
The only player on the Revolution to get a shot on target with as much frequency in recent action as Miller is Charles Gil, and his price to do the same tonight is -275. Miller is 5/5 with recording a single SOT in his last five MLS games, and he's averaging 0.94 SOT/90 on the year, so this is square within range. This price has an implied probability of 65.36%, but I'd back the real odds as closer to -250 (71.43%).
🦶 Who will score in New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo?
Peyton Miller, F/AM, New England (+275)
This is more of a play on the price than it is on the actual player. I figure Miller or Gil are the most likely to score for the Revolution, but once again, we're getting a significantly better price on Miller.
He's posting a career best 0.37 goals/90 this season, finding the back of the net four times over nine starts across 15 games. His 2.62 shots/90 and 0.94 shots/90 are based off a 35.7% SOT percentage, so while Houston should limit New England, he'll get his opportunities.
In three games since the World Cup bet he's scored one and provided an assist on another (although that's his only helper on the season), so I'll grab the price on the him to find the back of the net.
New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo FC goal-scorer pick: Peyton Miller (+275 via bet365)
🥅 Will both teams score in New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo?
I do have both teams lined up to score tonight, but I'm not exactly expecting a shootout.
Both teams are slightly more efficient than their underlying numbers, producing more goals than their xG would imply. Despite their record, and not having the flashiest of offense, the Revolution aren't in the league's most elite defensive teams (don't get me wrong, they're fine, but they're not the greatest squad out there). I'm thinking this game ends 2-1 or 1-1 probably.
Here's the issue, however: the price is way out of whack here for me. A -175 price comes with an implied probability of 63.6%, and I don't want to pay that. I figure the real odds are closer to 55%, so I'd be targeting something in the -120 or -125 range to make a play here. Similarly, I'm not forcing the "no" just because I don't like the price on the yes.
Both teams to score (BTTS) pick: Yes (-175 via bet365)
📊 New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo odds
We're tracking the latest World Cup odds and favorites to win this year's tournament.
📺 How to watch New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo
- Date: Saturday, Aug. 8
- Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
- TV: Apple TV
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