MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds (Saturday, Aug. 8)
After a hot start to the season, my MLB home run picks have gone a little cold. I'm not worried, though, as we've been consistently beating the closing line. My MLB home run predictions today look to bounce back with Shohei Ohtani, Manny Machado, and Spencer Jones on a loaded Saturday slate.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Aug. 8
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani to homer (+283 via DraftKings) | 0.71u β 2u | Ohtani has a .677 xSLG vs. fastballs, which Pfaadt throws 54% of the time vs. LHH. |
| Manny Machado to homer (+411 via DraftKings) | 0.49u β 2u | Lambert throws 54% fastballs vs. RHH, and Machado has a .565 xSLG vs. fastballs. |
| Spencer Jones to homer (+800 via DraftKings) | 0.25u β 2u | Jones ranks 6th in MLB with a 77.9 mph average bat speed (min. 25 swings). |
Total wagered: 1.45 units | Max profit: 6 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+283)
Ohtani burned us Friday, but he has another good matchup today and should be able to take advantage.
The Dodgers' two-way star has a .677 expected slugging percentage against fastballs, which Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt throws 54% of the time to left-handed hitters.
Ohtani has homered four times in his last nine games, so not only does he have an advantageous pitching matchup, but he has also been seeing the ball well lately. Ohtani to homer (+283) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Ohtani in Phoenix
Ohtani is slashing .363/.435/.688 with five home runs in 22 games (18 starts) at Chase Field.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Manny Machado (+411)
Machado is batting just .211 this season, but power hasn't been the issue, as he leads the Padres with 23 home runs. He faces Astros starter Peter Lambert, who throws 54% fastballs to right-handed hitters, a good sign for Machado.
The Padres' star third baseman has a .565 expected slugging percentage against fastballs, and if anybody is due for a home run, it's him. He has hit six or more home runs in each of the last three months but hasn't homered yet in August. Machado to homer (+411) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Spencer Jones (+800)
The market is overreacting to a) Braves starter Chris Sale not allowing a home run in four consecutive games and b) Jones not homering in five straight.
We know Sale is liable to give up home runs, as he allowed six over his first seven starts this season, and Jones hit the ball hard Friday, despite not going yard.
He still ranks sixth in MLB with a 77.9 mph average bat speed (min. 25 swings), so +800 is way too high of a payout.
Jones to homer (+800) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top MLB betting sites.
- Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🤑 More MLB picks for Saturday
Looking for more? Dive into Matt MacKay's Athletics vs. Red Sox prediction or Mike Spector's Guardians vs. White Sox prediction.
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Shohei Ohtani to homer
- Manny Machado to homer
- Spencer Jones to homer
Best odds: +17488 via DraftKings
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-29-4 | -3.08 units β | -7.9% β |
| Player props | 6-20-3 | -1.42 units β | -7% β |
| Game props | 3-3 | -1.48 units β | -12.4% β |
| Moneylines | 1-1-1 | +0.11 units β | 1.7% β |
| Parlays | 0-5 | -0.3 units β | -100% β |
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