⚽ Best Lionel Messi Props & Odds Today: Expert Prop Picks for Tuesday, June 16
Messi and Argentina open up the defense of their World Cup title tonight when Argentina and Algeria clash. I'm going to make my best Lionel Messi props & odds for Tuesday as I break down his prop markets.
Argentina is a -230 moneyline betting favorite ahead of the clash, and La Pulga is on the bounceback from an injury. Will he be able to cash us some tickets in our World Cup predictions before he heads to the sideline?
The action from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., is underway at 9 p.m. ET. You can catch it all on FOX or Telemundo, or stream it on Peacock.
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⚽Best Lionel Messi props today: June 16
See all of our experts' World Cup picks based on the latest World Cup odds and favorites
| 💰 Best bets | 📊 Best odds | ⚖️ Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi to record an assist | +250 via bet365 | 0.5u -> 1.25u |
| Lionel Messi to record 5+ shots | +137 via bet365 | 0.25u -> 0.34u |
| Lionel Messi to win 3+ fouls | +120 via FanDuel | 0.5u -> 0.6u |
Total wagered: 1.25 units | Max profit: 2.19 units
‼️ THE MOST IMPORTANT NOTE ON THIS GAME
There is no note more important than this heading into the game: play these markets only on sites that offer "Sub On, Play On" offers without changing the odds.
When Messi subs off (60? 70 minutes?), he'll likely be replaced by whichever of Alvarez or Lautaro doesn't start, and they'll pick up and add on to the market. Don't take slightly higher odds on sites that will end your wager when he leaves the pitch.
💰 Best Lionel Messi prop prediction today
Lionel Messi to win 3+ fouls (+120) vs. Algeria
This is a great price, one of two that are mispriced for the aging superstar. Messi has averaged nearly three fouls, making landing on three essentially a coin flip. Algeria's entire strategy tonight will be to defend the Argentine attack and use tactical fouls to slow Messi.
This is priced at +120 at FanDuel, and I'd play it to +100. At some books it's as long as -188. Get that value.
💵 SBR Edge: The Atomic Flea
This is the best value play on the board, and only at FanDuel, where a half-unit will fly at +120 odds given the sub on feature there.
Algeria will have to foul Messi tonight, and Bentaleb and Boudaoui won't be able to contain him without racking up a tactical foul or two on him. Both are placed significantly longer than -400 to record a single foul. It wouldn't be shocking if they each had at least one on La Pulga Atómica.
🔥 More Lionel Messi props for Tuesday
Lionel Messi to record an assist (+250) vs. Algeria
Messi has seen a major uptick in his assists this MLS season, so this is a play on that continuing into tonight's WC opener. He's racked up 12 goals and eight assists in 14 games with Inter Miami, but his assist prop is +240 while his anytime goalscorer is just -110. I'll take the value here, but if you prefer the goal prop, our LJ Blut breaks that one down in his Argentina vs. Algeria prediction.
I already discussed how Algeria will need to foul him to disrupt his positioning, but that should create opportunities for him to feed the ball to Alvarez/Almada/Lautaro to get second-ball opportunities. His injury that he's recently recovered from might have Argentina being a little more protective of their man in the box, too, instead of having him feed to whoever starts up front alongside.
Lionel Messi to record 5+ shots (+137)
This one is just a play on his "sub on, play on" replacement getting us over the line at plus-money. The value on Messi to get four, which maybe he can do on his own, isn't quite there. It's priced in the -150 range, and it lands right around his WCQ average.
But if you factor in that another attacking player will likely take his spot, we should be able to squeeze an extra one out to hit on the plus-money side of things. Let's look for 3-4 out of Messi, and hope his sub can get 1-2 to get us over the line. I'm only rocking a quarter-unit here, and I wouldn't touch it under +125.
💰️ More World Cup predictions today
I've broken down this game from another angle as well, and the rest of the day's games, in my World Cup predictions today
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