Champions League Predictions 2026: Which Team Will Win UCL, Who Will Finish with Most Goals?
While none of the 10 most likely teams to win the competition will come as a surprise, my Champions League predictions focus on the one I think has the best chance of becoming king of European football.
Along with the projected winner, I've featured my best bet to win the Golden Boot, as well as the two teams that will battle for supremacy in the May 30 final.
π Champions League prediction: Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich, currently with the second-shortest Champions League odds, will feel aggrieved by how its previous two Champions League exits unfurled. The German giants were ousted by Inter Milan in last season's quarterfinals, mainly due to incurring a litany of injuries.
Real Madrid controversially beat them in the semifinals of the previous campaign.
With one defeat in the last 25 at home in the competition, a 2-1 setback in last year's quarterfinal to Inter Milan, Bayern Munich has made Allianz Arena an impenetrable fortress. Their previous home loss came in the 2021 quarterfinals to PSG.
If Bayern Munich can remain healthy, I'm backing them to recapture the European title for the first time since 2020.
π Champions League top goal-scorer prediction: Erling Haaland
Kylian Mbappe has nine goals, three more than Erling Haaland and Galatasaray's Victor Osimhen. The Real Madrid superstar is the clear Golden Boot front-runner, but his -125 odds are too short for my liking.
Haaland's +430 odds represent the best value on the board.
The Norwegian beast can score in bunches, which he has shown repeatedly this season. Facing Norwegian side BodΓΈ/Glimt on Wednesday and Galatasaray at home on Jan. 29, Haaland has favorable matchups to culminate the group stage.
A few goals in those matches could shrink the gap between him and Mbappe entering the knockout phases. I expect Man City to reach the final, which would give Haaland at least eight additional matches to overtake Mbappe.
π Champions League top goal-scorer odds
Odds via FanDuel, one of the best soccer betting sites.
| Player | Odds | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | -125 | 55.56% | $8 |
| Erling Haaland | +430 | 18.87% | $43 |
| Harry Kane | +750 | 11.76% | $75 |
| Victor Osimhen | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| Lautaro Martinez | +2700 | 3.57% | $270 |
| Marcus Rashford | +2700 | 3.57% | $270 |
| Julian Alvarez | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
| Anthony Gordon | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| Serhou Guirassy | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
π Best bets to make Champions League final
I'm backing Man City to reach the final, joining my predicted winner, Bayern Munich, despite their current struggles, which I discussed in my Champions League odds rundown entering Matchday 7.
While Josko Gvardiol, who recently broke his shinbone, probably won't have enough time to influence City's run to the final, I expect Ruben Dias, Rodri, and John Stones to be back to their elite best during the business end of the competition.
Predicated on their return to health, City can beat any team in a home-and-away aggregate.
π Champions League odds to make final
| Team | Odds | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | +175 | 36.36% | $17.50 |
| Bayern Munich | +200 | 33.33% | $20 |
| Man City | +280 | 26.32% | $28 |
| PSG | +310 | 24.39% | $31 |
| Barcelona | +430 | 18.87% | $43 |
| Real Madrid | +490 | 16.95% | $49 |
| Liverpool | +490 | 16.95% | $49 |
| Chelsea | +850 | 10.53% | $85 |
| Inter Milan | +1300 | 7.14%% | $130 |
| Atletico Madrid | +1500 | 6.25% | $150 |
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